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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, June 02, 2008
Dunno…but he’s led my fantasy team into the filthy logiene of thick toilet swirls.
Already this year Swisher has three fly balls to the warning track (out of 27 fly ball outs) in US Cellular Field. Last season, in McAfee Coliseum, Swisher didn’t have any fly balls caught at the warning track (out of 77 fly ball outs). Swisher has at least ten additional fly balls that have been caught on the warning track in various parks around the American League.
Swisher’s underlying stats suggest that he is not any different of a player than he has been throughout his career. He is still extremely patient, and his walk and strikeout rates are in line with his career rates. His actual BABIP is over 100 points below his expected BABIP, leading to his miserable batting average. Although he only has four homers, he has hit a lot of fly balls and has hit at least 13 balls that were caught on the warning track. Thus, it appears that Swisher has been extremely unlucky so far this year, and if he continues to play like he has thus far, his statistics will drastically improve.
Swisher is hitting the ball often, hard, and far. Soon enough, his statistics will better reflect his ability.
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1. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: June 02, 2008 at 08:13 PM (#2803249)He's not. Hits just aren't dropping for him.
I agree that Swisher is better than he's playing, I just don't get the above premise.
I think the premise is that Swish has hit an absurd # of warning track shots, but has just 4 homers, and that if he just pulled the ball a little more, or had a slightly more favorable wind, some of those warning track shots would have been [additional] homers, and that going forward if he continues to hit the ball as he has, some additional homers will likely occur.
Then again maybe whatever has affected HRs in the AL in general this year has hit him particularly hard.
Then again maybe whatever is preventing the Whitesox opponents from hitting homers has hit Swish particularly hard, and when Swish gets untracked, so will the Sox opposing hitters...
2007: 2.47 HR per Sox Home game, 2.02 per Sox Road Game
2008: 1.87 HR per Sox Home Game, 1.62 per Sox road game
Not only that, but tracking warning track shots between ballparks is really rather ugly. Wind patterns, weather, wall distances, all that.
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