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Sunday, August 29, 2010

Beyond the Boxscore: Jack Morris, Dave Stieb and Most Wins/WAR of the 1980s

Well, maybe Morris is the best among pitchers who played the entire decade then? Not so much.

Best by total WAR:

  1. Stieb (45.2)
  2. Welch (35.1)
  3. Valenzuela (34.8)
  4. Blyleven (34.0)
  5. Ryan (30.8)
  6. Tudor (29.7)
  7. Hough (28.7)
  8. Morris (27.9)

Nope. Among all the pitchers who pitched in the entire decade, Stieb is also tops among starters in WAR/200 (though Quisenberry’s is higher than his). It’s pretty clear to me that the pitcher who should get the credit for being the best of the 1980s is not Jack Morris, but instead Dave Stieb.

If you’re curious, Dave Stieb was second in wins (140) to Morris (162).

Thanks to Edgar.

Repoz Posted: August 29, 2010 at 11:15 AM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: awards, hall of fame, history, tigers

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   1. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: August 29, 2010 at 11:41 AM (#3629032)
his WAR pitched to the score
   2. sunnyday2 Posted: August 29, 2010 at 11:56 AM (#3629034)
scoreboard
   3. RMc is the loyal supporter of the MLB event Posted: August 29, 2010 at 02:00 PM (#3629076)
What was it about 1980s pitchers, anyway? None of ones listed above (except Ryan and Blyleven, who primarily pitched in the 70s) is a HOFer or even a decent candidate.
   4. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: August 29, 2010 at 02:07 PM (#3629081)
You dare diss the Stieb?
   5. RJ in TO Posted: August 29, 2010 at 02:16 PM (#3629089)
What was it about 1980s pitchers, anyway? None of ones listed above (except Ryan and Blyleven, who primarily pitched in the 70s) is a HOFer or even a decent candidate.

For Stieb, it was an incredibly unlucky collision against (I think) the White Sox. Basically, he got run over while trying to cover 1B, screwed up his back (to the point of requiring surgery, and a year's recovery), which cause him to change his motion, which caused him to end up with problems with tendonitis, which caused him to suck, which caused him to retire.

If it wasn't for that collision, the odds are fairly good (given that he was still sort of effective in his age 40 comeback) that he would have plugged along to about 250 wins, and an eventual spot in the Hall.

Among the others who haven't made the Hall, Blyleven probably will this year, Morris probably will when he hits year 15 on the ballot or the VC, and Hough probably would have if he hadn't spent 1973 to 1981 in the bullpen rather than in the starting rotation.
   6. Nathan Kunkel Posted: August 29, 2010 at 02:28 PM (#3629099)
"(except Ryan and Blyleven, who primarily pitched in the 70s)"

i think i know what you're trying to say, but the actual words do not reflect the historical record ; )
   7. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: August 29, 2010 at 02:37 PM (#3629106)
Jack Morris threw a no-hitter against them, but Dave Stieb was the most-feared 80s pitcher to this White Sox fan, unless Juan Agosto counts.
   8. Completely Unbiased 3rd Party Lurker Posted: August 29, 2010 at 03:34 PM (#3629122)
Fernando doesn't get enough consideration for this "title." I suspect that the '88 injury really derailed his legacy.
   9. RMc is the loyal supporter of the MLB event Posted: August 29, 2010 at 06:01 PM (#3629195)
"(except Ryan and Blyleven, who primarily pitched in the 70s)"

i think i know what you're trying to say, but the actual words do not reflect the historical record ; )


Blyleven and Ryan both pitched in the 80s, of course, but neither are thought of as "80s pitchers". Blyleven's career began in 1970, and he won 148 games in the 70s. Ryan's career began around the time of Alexander Cartwright (OK, 1966).

It's just that, for most decades, it's easy to find HOF candidates when you're talking WAR leaders; the 50s had Roberts, Spahn, Wynn and Ford in its Top 10; the 60s, Gibson, Koufax, Marichal, Drysdale, Bunning and Perry; the 70s, Seaver, Niekro, Blyleven, Palmer and Carlton (and Nolan Ryan). And the 90s had Clemens, Maddux, RJohnson and Glavine. The 00s? Halladay, Pedro, Schilling, CC and Santana.

So, I repeat: What was up with 1980s pitchers?
   10. Jick Posted: August 29, 2010 at 06:35 PM (#3629210)
i think i know what you're trying to say, but the actual words do not reflect the historical record ; )

Blyleven and Ryan both pitched in the 80s, of course,


Maybe now, sure, but back in the day Ryan hit 100 mph quite frequently.
   11. CrosbyBird Posted: August 29, 2010 at 06:35 PM (#3629211)
I'm not sure how to conveniently look it up, but does the same thing happen with hitters in the 1980s? I think the 1980s had to be close to the period with the highest parity in baseball.
   12. bobm Posted: August 29, 2010 at 06:54 PM (#3629220)
[11] Top 10 hitters by BB-REF WAR by decade

1950s: Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Duke Snider, Eddie Mathews, Minnie Minoso, Yogi Berra, Ted Williams, Richie Ashburn, Jackie Robinson
1960s: Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Roberto Clemente, Ron Santo, Brooks Robinson, Al Kaline, Carl Yastrzemski, Mickey Mantle, Harmon Killebrew
1970s: Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench, Rod Carew, Reggie Jackson, Mike Schmidt, Graig Nettles, Sal Bando, Pete Rose, Bobby Bonds, Reggie Smith
1980s: Rickey Henderson, Wade Boggs, Mike Schmidt, Robin Yount, Alan Trammell, Cal Ripken, Dale Murphy, George Brett, Eddie Murray, Ozzie Smith
1990s: Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Barry Larkin, Craig Biggio, Edgar Martinez, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, Kenny Lofton
2000s: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, Todd Helton, Ichiro Suzuki, Carlos Beltran, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Derek Jeter

In terms of HOF candidates, I think the biggest drop-off is spots 6, 7, 9, 10 in the 1970s
   13. CrosbyBird Posted: August 29, 2010 at 10:12 PM (#3629317)
1980s: Rickey Henderson, Wade Boggs, Mike Schmidt, Robin Yount, Alan Trammell, Cal Ripken, Dale Murphy, George Brett, Eddie Murray, Ozzie Smith

What there's a distinct lack of here, in my opinion, are sluggers. Henderson and Boggs were great offensive players, but they were OBP-heavy and relatively SLG-light. Brett, Yount, Trammell, and Ripken were great hitters for SS. Smith is a defensive selection.

You're basically talking about three real HR guys:

1) Schmidt, who was only a star for really half of the 80s,
2) Murphy, who has a very short peak, and
3) Eddie Murray, who had power but not eye-popping power.

Even Schmidt and Murray get substantial defensive value.

I feel like in the 50s and 60s, you've got guys like Mays, Mantle, Williams, and Aaron. In the 90s and 00 you have guys like Bonds, Griffey, Frank Thomas, Pujols, and A-Rod. These are guys that hit well enough to be DH HOFers. The only guys in the 70s or 80s that have that type of profile are Jackson and Schmidt (and Schmidt is half a 70s guy and half an 80s guy).

It's the power, more than anything else. The 80s seems like the post-WWI decade where the power game was at its weakest, and that makes the hitters look less impressive. I wonder if there's something going on or if it's simply a lull in talent (the effect of expansion without the heavy international influence that exists in today's game). It may just be that in the 1980s, the average baseball player simply wasn't as good as the average player in the 1950s or the average player in the 2000s.
   14. michaelplank Posted: August 29, 2010 at 10:19 PM (#3629320)
It's the power, more than anything else. The 80s seems like the post-WWI decade where the power game was at its weakest, and that makes the hitters look less impressive. I wonder if there's something going on or if it's simply a lull in talent (the effect of expansion without the heavy international influence that exists in today's game). It may just be that in the 1980s, the average baseball player simply wasn't as good as the average player in the 1950s or the average player in the 2000s.


The big, multipurpose artificial turf stadiums were in their prime. In general, they were not good for HRs. There was probably just as much talent, it just had a different shape. E.g., the 1980s were renowned for the emergence of 30-30 (and one 40-40) guys, which continued into the 1990s before it stopped being worth it to run unless you were, like, Kenny Lofton.
   15. CrosbyBird Posted: August 29, 2010 at 11:20 PM (#3629356)
There was probably just as much talent, it just had a different shape. E.g., the 1980s were renowned for the emergence of 30-30 (and one 40-40) guys, which continued into the 1990s before it stopped being worth it to run unless you were, like, Kenny Lofton.

Perhaps, but that doesn't really translate into as much value. A 30-30 guy isn't as good at scoring runs as a 50-10 guy in any realistic run environment, all other things being equal.
   16. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:42 PM (#3629833)
What there's a distinct lack of here, in my opinion, are sluggers. Henderson and Boggs were great offensive players, but they were OBP-heavy and relatively SLG-light. Brett, Yount, Trammell, and Ripken were great hitters for SS. Smith is a defensive selection.


Top 10 in ISO for the decade (1500+ PAs):
Rk    Player    ISO    PA    From    To
1    Mike Schmidt    .263    5556    1980    1989
2    Fred McGriff    .261    1664    1986    1989
3    Mark McGwire    .260    1921    1986    1989
4    Darryl Strawberry    .260    3928    1983    1989
5    Eric Davis    .255    2465    1984    1989
6    Ken Phelps    .255    2144    1980    1989
7    Ron Kittle    .241    2589    1982    1989
8    Kevin Mitchell    .234    2099    1984    1989
9    Jose Canseco    .233    2436    1985    1989
10    Steve Balboni    .223    3128    1981    1989
11    Bo Jackson    .223    1554    1986    1989
12    Will Clark    .220    2410    1986    1989
13    Rob Deer    .220    2418    1984    1989
14    Danny Tartabull    .219    2446    1984    1989
15    Pete Incaviglia    .218    2131    1986    1989
16    Dale Murphy    .218    6540    1980    1989
17    Dwight Evans    .217    6371    1980    1989
18    Dave Kingman    .217    3455    1980    1986
19    Tony Armas    .216    4549    1980    1989
20    Jack Clark    .216    5021    1980    1989
21    Gorman Thomas    .216    3506    1980    1986
22    Glenn Davis    .214    3044    1984    1989
23    Bob Horner    .214    3339    1980    1988
24    Jesse Barfield    .212    4398    1981    1989
25    Andre Dawson    .212    5897    1980    1989 


There's your sluggers :-)
1 is Schmidt
2,3 are "90s guys"
4,5 are flameouts, HOF talents but just not enough there
6 is an mle legend
Will Clark I would argue is a HOF level talent (not that he's getting in)
Andrew Awesome is in

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