That’s Moore Jay Bruce Balls in Play, not More Jay Bruce Balls in Play…because that would be unpossible.
Jay Bruce’s contribution to this team has certainly been significant. His contributions total to 1.4 wins above replacement so far, which is roughly .5 wins above average, and over 600 plate appearances this production would total 3.1 wins.
However, Bruce’s reputation as a prospect was as an elite hitter. Bruce’s contributions this year have been almost completely with the glove, posting a +7.9 UZR in RF. His hitting has been merely average, with his .332 wOBA resulting in an insignificant total runs below average. Bruce put up a similar .328 wOBA in 452 PAs (180 more than his current 2009 total of 272). Common to both of his lines is a low BABIP on fly balls and line drives. Thanks to a 21.1% line drive rate, despite a LD BABIP lower than the NL average by 29 points and a FB BABIP lower than the NL average by a whopping 56 points (39% of the NL BABIP), Bruce still maintained a .298 BABIP. Unfortunately for Bruce and the Reds, his line drive rate fell precipitously to 13.8% this year, and, unbelievably, so did his BABIPs on fly balls and line drive. A ridiculously low .560 BABIP on LDs and and unfathomable .025 FB BABIP have led to an overall BABIP of .205 through June 22nd.
...Bruce’s BABIP woes, however they’re caused, have removed over a win from his value in 728 PAs. In fact, considering Bruce’s 0.5 WAR last year and 1.4 WAR this year, Bruce’s results on balls in play are reducing his value by nearly a third to a half. Personally, I would be interested in seeing some Hit F/X analysis on this issue, but I don’t have access to the data. Hopefully for Reds fans, it’s merely a case of bad luck. Despite Bruce’s 2008 looking decent by overall BABIP, he still lost a lion’s share of value from below average LD and FB BABIP. His value going forward could depend on it improving, not to mention the Reds playoff chances.
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1. Doug's Hopkin off the band wagon Posted: June 25, 2009 at 04:01 PM (#3232538)I expect Bruce to have a great 2nd half of the season, when his "luck" turns around.
I'm a little worried that Bruce is a .260 hitter, albeit with 40 HR pop as a 22 year old.
Noone keeps a BABIP that low, but with his extreme FB% he's not going to have a high average right?
Step it up, Jay!
yes for 2009, but Votto will be 26 in September, Jay Bruce turned 22 around opening day. More than likely Bruce will always have a lower BA than Votto, because of the difference int he K% between the two, but I expect Bruce to be the better offensive player.
I'd also like to mention while Bruce's BABIP has been hovering around .200 all year, Votto's has been around or over .400 all year. 2 extremes on the scale.
I'm not a fantasy player anymore, but if I was playing in a keeper league the one young (sub 24) NL OF I'd take over Bruce is Upton. Bruce might always be a .260-.270 hitter, but he definitely has more pop than Upton. I guess it depends on your league rules, current team make, etc.
But BJ is just 24 and has a solid MLB track record so it's not clear to me you should take Bruce for him straight up (I probably would take Bruce but it's hardly a slam dunk). Trading Francisco at his peak is a smart move of course.
I would probably do that trade, since it's BJ and not Justin.
Maybe I'm wrong about this but I see Bruce as a Jeremy Burnitz type player. I guess if he's that at 22 and can do that plus a little better until he's 35 that's quite a player, but still.
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