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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Friday, August 05, 2011Bigger Bust: AJ Burnett or Johan Santana?Small Candy Samples at play here…
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Posted: August 05, 2011 at 12:50 PM | 21 comment(s)
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1. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: August 05, 2011 at 01:31 PM (#3893292)Huh? Humber has been good this season, but it's the first productive season of his career and he's 28. Gomez is ok. And the Mets got ~550 very high quality innings from Santana over the last three years. Hardly a bust so far.
...Right.
Including this year, Humber has given 160 innings at the MLB level with a ERA+ of 107 with 117 of those innings coming this year (with a 120 ERA+). And Humber's on his 3rd team post Mets (Min, KC, White Sox).
Gomez had a OPS+ of 77 his first year in Minn and that's arguably his best MLB season.
As a better comparison, since the trade: Santana 14.4 WAR, Humber 2.7 WAR and Gomez with 3.8 WAR. And that's with Santana not even pitching this year.
1) How frustrating it is to watch Burnett pitch (he should watch Matsuzaka!)
2) How much the Mets suck.
.256 BABIP this year, .275 for his career.
He left his fastball in the OR,
In the minors his BABIP was on the high side, the only thing I can think of is that MLB batters just don't see guys with stuff as bad as Humber's so they are confused,
He has kept his walks down and not allowed HRs...
Looking at his numbers both MLB and minors, he looks like a guy who KNOWS how to pitch, but having seen him pitch up close- he just doesn't have the stuff- pity- if he'd kept the stuff he'd had in college he'd be an ace...
I think you can basically scratch him off your dance card for this season.
And as for Burnett, it's funny what walks do for a perception. His Yankee ERA+ is 96... which isn't great, but his contract doesn't seem to be a disaster. But, and I don't know it since I don't really watch him pitch, his walk rate is 4 per 9 with the Yankees... when you get to that level, pitching becomes a lot like dental work, if it's overall adequate. You need to be getting better results in order to stop people from wanting to send you out the airlock.
He was 32 the first year of the deal. There has always been this perception of Burnett as a guy who was going to figure it out at some point and that was the narrative in a lot of places when the Yankees signed him. The reality was he was a 32 year old pitcher with over 200 starts the day he signed the deal, any expectation that he would break out was misguided. He's regressed more than I expected and I think RB had similar expectations to mine for the deal but being frustrated that Burnett can't "put it all together" is on the writer, not on Burnett.
Just to put a little perspective on it because the two are often compared. When the Burnett signed with the Yankees he was older at that time than Josh Beckett is now. It wasn't like the Yanks got some 27-28 year old possible late bloomer.
As it relates to #10, really? Obviously it has happened before, but I don't feel like pitchers--espcailly as they age--tend to get healthier, although they do generally get less effective. I can't, off the top of my head, think of a lot of cases like that. I suppose Lackey is sort-of one, although he had a decent health record and has been hurt some in Boston.
[13] This is a trick question. The correct answer is obviously
John LackeyMorganna.FTFY :)
She's lucky she plied her trade in the freewheeling 70s and 80s, today she'd be tazered at least a dozen times and probably have the boots put to her once out of camerashot.
I don't know, they have a .510 pythag and are in the 2nd toughest division in baseball (maybe toughest if you consider the AL East guys get to play Baltimore?).
Really I just have it in for this guy because I want to be a pedantic tool about begging questions.
Of course, then he got hurt this year.
Santana's been extremely good when he's been able to pitch, but assuming he doesn't take the mound this season he'll have averaged 150 innings for the last four seasons. He might come back and have two more good years (I'm assuming missing 2011 all but kills the chance the 25m team option for 2014 will vest), but this is, what, his third significant surgery? How likely is it that he'll stay healthy?
Too bad no one gets creative with this kind of pitcher. I'd love to see Santana be the Mets Sunday starter in 2012. Roll him out for 25 starts and see if he can handle that load for the next two years. Alderson might just be creative enough and secure enough to try it, but for some reason I don't see him taking chances. He hasn't so far.
Edit: I thought Santana's deal ran out after next year, maybe you can argue for Burnett in that case.
Looking up Burnett, he's been better than I thought. Sure, last year was terrible, but his first year in NY was one of his better years and this year he's about average. People seem to think he should be one the best pitchers in the league ever year when he's never really been that before.
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