Bill James Mailbag - 11/23/12 - 11/29/12

I think I did do this in Strat-O-Matic and .850 is about what happened.

To look at the question of how All-star teams would perform I used Teams-on-Paper estimates for the starting lineups in the 1980-84 all-star games. (using the first four starting pitchers who appeared and the last reliever for the staff). League average scores are around 200 with the best teams ever at slightly over 300. The all-star teams scores ranged from 271 to 357 and the predicted won-lost based on these scores were 96-66 to 122-40. The average number of projected wins was 110.5 (standard deviation 7.62) , a .682 W-L percentage.

Thanks.   I think you’re getting close to the reasons for my skepticism about teams playing .850 baseball.  

It may be that you could make Strat-o-Matic cards after the season, pick the best card at each position, and THAT team would play .850 baseball.   But this is because the season is not long enough to grind all of the randomness out of the statistics; therefore, some players in each season appear to be better than they are.   There are a handful of players in the league who are legitimate .310 hitters; one of those hits .340, one of them hits .330.   If you pick and choose after the fact, you can make an .850 team—but choosing real players before the fact, the best players would not play at that level.

Hey, Bill, I’m reading “Popular Crime” and I was comparing/contrasting the proposition of the economic class strife of the early 20th Century as it would have applied to baseball at the time. I suppose that same economic stress would have contributed to the Black Sox scandal during the 1919 World Series and would be a major reason gambling on baseball was such a concern during that time?

Absolutely, yes.  The Betting Scandals of that era are very directly connected to the tension between rich and poor that was dividing the country in that time.     The only reason I didn’t make that point in the book was that I chose to write that book with no reference to baseball—even to the point of repeatedly scouring the manuscript for phrases like “out in left field” or “made a big hit” that might be taken as baseball references.

Bill, Sad news today with the announcement of Marvin Miller`s death. In your opinion, where`s his place in MLB history ? It certainly is a shame that he doesn`t yet have a spot at Cooperstown…

And has told his friends in no uncertain terms that if the Hall of Fame tries to elect him postumously, they are to be told “No, thanks.”   Some people are bigger than their awards.   Babe Ruth doesn’t need to be in the Hall of Fame; the Hall of Fame needs to honor Babe Ruth to make the Hall of Fame look bigger.   To me, Marvin’s on that level.   He is too big for it to be relevant whether the Hall of Fame likes him or not…

I knew Marvin fairly well, knew his late wife as well.  We have close friends in common, and when I got to New York I would often have lunch or dinner with Marvin and Allen Barra.