Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
If you had to pick one position player to build a team around who do you pick?
Asked by: Florko
Answered: 1/25/2012
Jacoby? I dunno; might be Jacoby, Braun, Kemp, Longoria. Brett Lawrie, maybe.
Hi Bill. In Nick Punto’s career he has walked 303 times and struck out 486. However, in his 63 games for the Cardinals last year he walked 25 times and struck out only 21 times and had a very strong half season. Is 63 games enough of a sample size to assume he may be improving as a hitter, or are his previous 824 games a better indication of what type of hitter he will be next year?
Asked by: izzy24
Answered: 1/25/2012
It is most likely an aberration. It is most likely that his strikeout/walk ratio will return to historic norms in 2012.
...[Win Shares] as you’ve set them up (3 WS= 1 Win) are MORE meaningful in huge samples (i.e., a player with 200 WS over a career is prefereable to one with only 150) but I still thought that even a single WS in one season means something…
Asked by: sgoldleaf
Answered: 1/23/2012
...When we divide one win into three win shares, rather than ten, then each win share has a worth of approximately three runs, and then the distinctions become more reliable, which is not to say ABSOLUTELY reliable, but more reliable. We are less likely to be wrong by 3 runs than we are by one run, and we are much less likely to be wrong by 9 runs than we are by 3 runs.
Still. ..and this is one of those points that a lot of people are just never going to get. . .it is not the main purpose of Win Shares to make distinctions between single seasons. If you’re arguing about, let us say, who to put on an All-Star team, then there are a thousand things you can look at it pursue that argument. Saying that “This player has 27 Win Shares and that one has 25”—OR saying that this player has 6.9 WAR and that player has 6.3—is something of an effort to end the debate, in that these measures SUM UP all of the other measurements. It’s not particularly helpful in that way; it’s not really appropriate to try to end those debates by citing a master statistic that overrules all of the other statistics, and it’s not terribly persuasive. That’s really not the value in Win Shares.
Bill, the 2011 Colorado Rockies got 217 relief appearances from pitchers named “Matt.” Do you happen to know, off the top of your head, whether this is a record for one team getting the most bullpen games out of one first name?
Asked by: TJNawrocki
Answered: 1/22/2012
I’m pretty sure Jesse Orosco pitched that many times himself for the 1987 Mets. I can’t believe I put 7 minutes of my life into researching this, but. . .I think it is a record. The 1967 Twins got 162 game appearances (not all of them relief appearances) out of pitchers named “Jim”—Jim Kaat, Jim Perry, Jim Merrit, Jim Roland and Jim Ollom… I don’t find anybody else going over the 200 mark.
Tom, it would have been funny if Bill actually did know that off the top of his head.
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1. Guapo Posted: January 25, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4045676)Boy, it's going to be awkward when Bill James and Nick Punto run into each other at the Red Sox Holiday Party later this year.
I like how people write in to Bill James with questions that have nothing to do with baseball, i.e. what do you think about all the presidential candidate debates? I mean, James gives a nice, not-uninteresting answer, but I just can't imagine why somebody cares about his opinion on such things...
I am embarrassed for all statheads everywhere. Mr. James overlooked Jim "Mudcat" Grant who was also on the 67 Twins. That brings them up to 189 appearances.
Also Kaat alone probably pitched more innings (263) than all those Matts combined. All told the Twins got 787.2 IP from guys named Jim. That's over 50% of team innings.
I assume the record for % of team innings pitched is held by "Will" as Will "Whoop-La" White threw 680 of the 1879 Reds 726 innings.
EDIT: And I've made my own mistake as the 1879 Reds also featured William "Blondie" Purcell's 18 IP. So that's 698 of 726 innings by "William".
"Hint hint brass...hint hint.."
If he's the real thing (even 85% of last year), and you let him walk to the Yanks in two years....
Kim Jong Il was also a fabulous golf player, I read.
* the Bob Johnson who was traded for Art Shamsky and then missed the 1968 season after being drafted into the military, not Indian Bob Johnson or the one who looked like Steve Buscemi in lipstick.
One name kind of sticks out in that group. Is Lawrie really thought of in that class? or even close?
186 appearances from Mikes for the 2002 Dbacks.
Amen Bill, Amen.
This is an example of how people misunderstand the true genius of Bill James. To me, he isn't just some baseball statistics savant. He is a naturally sharp, inquisitive guy, and a fantastic writer, who happens to specialize in baseball. Thus, I can see why someone would care for James opinion on non-baseball things.
Sportswriters offering, and being asked, their opinions on non-sports topics (chiefly indie music) has become a bit of a trend however.
Lots of people see him as close to Longoria. I'm not sure I do, at least not yet - I'd like to see where he is at this time next year.
-- MWE
One big difference, and I know a lot of people poo-poo this, is that Longoria's makeup (work ethic, competitiveness, professionalism) is raved about while Lawrie has a rep of being a jerkoff.
Also, Longoria is an excellent defender while, apparently, Lawrie has yet to turn his tools into good defense.
Lawrie's reputation has turned decidedly for the better since he was traded to the Blue Jays- there's no doubt he's very cocky, but he's reportedly gotten along well with his teammates both in the minors and with the big league team; he also worked hard in the minors on his fielding and greatly improved his plate discipline.
As for Lawrie's fielding, I'd say that while his arm is average and his hands are somewhat wooden, he displayed great range at third, which resulted in great advanced numbers: 15.7/150 UZR and +14 DRS (which would work out to ~+40 DRS/150).
Needless to say, one can't read too much into a third of a Major-league season, but all the signs are positive.
A big advantage with Lawrie is the Jays have 6 years of control left. If I was them I'd be looking at trying to get Lawrie to sign a Longoria type deal by spring training as in a year it might cost a heck of a lot more.
ZiPS projects him to a 119 OPS+ at age 22 which puts him behind only Hosmer (and I assume Stanton) among age-22 guys projected so far. Longoria at 22 put up a 127 so that's not far off. Defense of course is another matter.
On the question James got, are we including their current contracts? Because Longoria is the #1 choice if that's the case. You've got him (worst-case) at 5/$39 but it could be as little as 2/$13 so you're protected in case of injury. I suppose the next 6 years of Lawrie will be cheaper but that's it. The next 5 years of Braun will cost only $55 but then you're on the hook for at least 4/$78 -- which will probably be just fine. Kemp at 8/$160 is clearly the worst deal of this bunch.
I'd forgotten James was still with the Sox. I find the notion of Ellsbury as the guy you'd build around pretty silly. Now if he puts up another couple of years like last year then he's in the conversation but then he's 29 by then. His career OPS+ before last year was 92 so I'm thinking that 146 is not here to stay. Or did he find Manny's stash of magic beans?
Lawrie wasn't on my radar until the Jays got him from Milwaukee, so this comment seems completely off the wall to me. I was very impressed with every single aspect of his game as displayed in his ML time last year. I don't know if its because Toronto is a hockey town, but he has a chance to become the most popular Blue Jay ever, even if he just puts up average to slightly above average numbers. He is the anti-Rios, and I can pretty much guarantee you that there isn't a more competitive player in MLB than Brett Lawrie.
Hmm.
1. Roy Halladay
2. Joe Carter
3. Dave Stieb
4. Tony Fernandez
5. Carlos Delgado
6. Roberto Alomar
7. Kelly Gruber
8. Ernie Whitt
9. Tom Henke
10. Jimmy Key
Halladay is obviously a great competitor, but he's fairly reserved. If he had put up his CY numbers and behaved like Carlos Zambrano, he would have been much more popular (I'm not complaining, BTW).
The most popular player in Toronto Maple Leafs history is probably Wendel Clark, and it was 95% based on his take-no-prisoners style of play. The guy was a LW and scored 50 points in a season only once, in the height of the high-scoring 80's and early 90's. As long as Lawrie can stay reasonably healthy and put up OK numbers, he will be a star in the Wendel Clark mould.
I beg to differ, Lawrie needs to best the accomplishments of Paul Quantrill.
Yup, that is apparently the criteria, as Bill also maintains that the first baseball "Kevin" was Kevin Collins in the mid-1960s, even though Chuck "The Rifleman" Connors' real first name was Kevin.
Bill frequently writes about topics other than baseball these days. You probably know that he wrote a book about "popular crime." And in addition to some dabbling in other sports, he often gets into issues of history and politics. He virtually never discusses current issues or specific real-life politicians (although he was not a Rick Perry fan...), but comes at it in more of a how-should-society-be-organized type of way. So he does have an interest in the subject, which would make it a pretty natural question to ask him in that sense. Of course, millions of other people also have interest in the subject, so whether that interest is worth anything is an open question ;)
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