Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
C’mon now, cancelling the World Series is joyous compared to Arli$$.
Hey Bill, In what context do “one run” offensive strategies (in particular the sacrifice bunt, but also stolen bases) make sense in the early innings of a game? Said another way, how scarce do runs need to be in order to make the sacrifice bunt a favorable strategy in the early innings of a game?
I’m not sure I have a solid understanding of the issue. Billy Southworth bunted constantly in the early innings, believing that the most important thing was to grab the lead. Southworth’s teams were tremendously successful. It could be that if you have a GREAT team, one way to maximize that is to bunt in the early innings. I DOUBT that, but I don’t KNOW that it is untrue. And, as I have pointed out before. . .if the third baseman can’t field a bunt, why not bunt?
Re Southworth’s strategy: I’ve always heard that teams scoring the FIRST run in a game tend to win that game by some ludicrous %, but then I realized that every shutout of course is won by the team scoring the first run, probably equivalent (or close) to the % of wins claimed by the bunting/stealing crowd. Do you see this as blowing a significant hole in the small-ball argument? McCarver used to invoke it like it was heaven-sent wisdom, but I always found it spectacularly dumb.
Well. . .spectacularly dumb is harsh. It’s misleading. If you were to look, for example, at teams that score a run in the bottom of the fourth inning, you would find that those teams win about 70% of their games, just because a) EVERY run you score is highly significant in a contest in which it only takes a few runs to win a game, and b) when you score one run in the bottom of the 4th, very often you will score 2 or more, whereas when you score NO runs in the bottom of the fourth, then you never score 2 or more. It’s not that the first run is hugely significant; it is that every run is hugely significant.
Bill: I don’t expect you to keep printing my input on this. . .
In “Four Sluggers” you tossed in a very interesting generalization that fantasy GMs and possibly real GMs should all know - but I didn’t think was considered general knowledge: ” The usual rule is that a player is consistent when he is young; when he gets older, what he loses is not the ability to produce but the consistency of his production.” Can I take that as fact? Could you, please, elaborate on that? It would make a good subject for a serious study.
I can’t demonstrate that it’s true, no. It seems obvious to me, but then, Amy Adams didn’t win Best Actress for “American Hustle”, so I guess you never know.
Hey Bill, ESPN Magazine has published preseason predictions ( http://assets.espn.go.com/magazine/0331TEAMAL.pdf, http://assets.espn.go.com/magazine/0331TEAMNL.pdf ) based in part on a “chemistry score.” They worked with a couple of professors to build “a proprietary team-chemistry regression model” with three factors: “clubhouse demographics, trait isolation and stratification of performance to pay.” Basically, on each factor, more homogeneity is better: players with similar salaries, experience, race, nationality, etc. Each component gives a result in terms of wins; e.g., the Cubs lose 3.5 wins on “clubhouse demographics” because of “too much diversity”. A fuller summary of the method is here: http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2014/03/espn-on-clubhouse-chemistry.html Any thoughts on this?
Ah. . .it’s happened at last. The happy marriage of sabermetrics and bullshit.
Bill, Selig will retire a the end of this year. Who are the leading candidaes to replace him?
George Will, Bob Costas, Mariano Rivera, Stephen Colbert, Pope Francis, Gwyneth Paltrow, Mitch McConnell, Dale Chihuly, Maui Mike, Rob Neyer, Robert Wuhl, Betty White and Steven Goldleaf. In that order.
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
: Yankees confident they can avoid paying A-Rod milestone bonuses - CBSSports.com
(54 - 3:26am, Mar 01)
Last: Curse of the AndinoNewsblog
: Dodgers going organic this season
(31 - 3:02am, Mar 01)
Last: Infinite Joost (Voxter)Newsblog
: OT - Politics - February 2015: At This Party, You’d Better Keep It Down. Arizona Sheriff Known for Toughness Is Allowing Inmates to Watch the Super Bowl
(3541 - 3:01am, Mar 01)Last:
my ignorance is just as good as your STEAGLESNewsblog
: OT: Monthly NBA Thread - February 2015
(1201 - 2:59am, Mar 01)Last:
: Blue Jays expect Saunders back early in season - Sportsnet.ca
(2 - 2:00am, Mar 01)
Last: SoSHially UnacceptableNewsblog
: Juan Pierre officially announces his retirement
(54 - 2:00am, Mar 01)
: Forbes: Chicago Cubs Valuation Hits $1.8 Billion In Minority Sale Of Team
(11 - 1:17am, Mar 01)
Last: Curse of the AndinoNewsblog
: MLBTR: Mets Not Expected To Talk Extension With Daniel Murphy
(15 - 11:28pm, Feb 28)
: Sale fractures right foot in accident at home | MLB.com
(17 - 11:26pm, Feb 28)
: ‘Tres Amigos’ lead new-look Red Sox’s scary offensive dynamo | New York Post
(27 - 11:20pm, Feb 28)
: MLB Network: Carlos Pena explains Effective Velocity (video)
(5 - 10:17pm, Feb 28)
: In honor of the late Leonard Nimoy, the 'Vulcan changeup'
(3 - 10:08pm, Feb 28)
Last: Gonfalon BubbleNewsblog
: Aramis Ramirez plans to retire after 2015 season
(26 - 10:01pm, Feb 28)
Last: Dog on the sidewalkNewsblog
: Arizona Diamondbacks' Yasmany Tomas goes to work at third base
(8 - 8:46pm, Feb 28)
Last: Jose CanuseeNewsblog
: AJC: Braves center fielder Upton (foot) likely out at least 2 months
(22 - 8:20pm, Feb 28)
Last: Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66)