Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
C’mon now, cancelling the World Series is joyous compared to Arli$$.
Hey Bill, In what context do “one run” offensive strategies (in particular the sacrifice bunt, but also stolen bases) make sense in the early innings of a game? Said another way, how scarce do runs need to be in order to make the sacrifice bunt a favorable strategy in the early innings of a game?
I’m not sure I have a solid understanding of the issue. Billy Southworth bunted constantly in the early innings, believing that the most important thing was to grab the lead. Southworth’s teams were tremendously successful. It could be that if you have a GREAT team, one way to maximize that is to bunt in the early innings. I DOUBT that, but I don’t KNOW that it is untrue. And, as I have pointed out before. . .if the third baseman can’t field a bunt, why not bunt?
Re Southworth’s strategy: I’ve always heard that teams scoring the FIRST run in a game tend to win that game by some ludicrous %, but then I realized that every shutout of course is won by the team scoring the first run, probably equivalent (or close) to the % of wins claimed by the bunting/stealing crowd. Do you see this as blowing a significant hole in the small-ball argument? McCarver used to invoke it like it was heaven-sent wisdom, but I always found it spectacularly dumb.
Well. . .spectacularly dumb is harsh. It’s misleading. If you were to look, for example, at teams that score a run in the bottom of the fourth inning, you would find that those teams win about 70% of their games, just because a) EVERY run you score is highly significant in a contest in which it only takes a few runs to win a game, and b) when you score one run in the bottom of the 4th, very often you will score 2 or more, whereas when you score NO runs in the bottom of the fourth, then you never score 2 or more. It’s not that the first run is hugely significant; it is that every run is hugely significant.
Bill: I don’t expect you to keep printing my input on this. . .
In “Four Sluggers” you tossed in a very interesting generalization that fantasy GMs and possibly real GMs should all know - but I didn’t think was considered general knowledge: ” The usual rule is that a player is consistent when he is young; when he gets older, what he loses is not the ability to produce but the consistency of his production.” Can I take that as fact? Could you, please, elaborate on that? It would make a good subject for a serious study.
I can’t demonstrate that it’s true, no. It seems obvious to me, but then, Amy Adams didn’t win Best Actress for “American Hustle”, so I guess you never know.
Hey Bill, ESPN Magazine has published preseason predictions ( http://assets.espn.go.com/magazine/0331TEAMAL.pdf, http://assets.espn.go.com/magazine/0331TEAMNL.pdf ) based in part on a “chemistry score.” They worked with a couple of professors to build “a proprietary team-chemistry regression model” with three factors: “clubhouse demographics, trait isolation and stratification of performance to pay.” Basically, on each factor, more homogeneity is better: players with similar salaries, experience, race, nationality, etc. Each component gives a result in terms of wins; e.g., the Cubs lose 3.5 wins on “clubhouse demographics” because of “too much diversity”. A fuller summary of the method is here: http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2014/03/espn-on-clubhouse-chemistry.html Any thoughts on this?
Ah. . .it’s happened at last. The happy marriage of sabermetrics and bullshit.
Bill, Selig will retire a the end of this year. Who are the leading candidaes to replace him?
George Will, Bob Costas, Mariano Rivera, Stephen Colbert, Pope Francis, Gwyneth Paltrow, Mitch McConnell, Dale Chihuly, Maui Mike, Rob Neyer, Robert Wuhl, Betty White and Steven Goldleaf. In that order.
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
: Younger breed of techies replacing baseball lifers in GM roles - StarTribune.com
(16 - 10:21pm, Jul 24)
Last: DJS, the Digital DandyNewsblog
: Rockies have several players who could be targeted for trade with deadline near – The Denver Post
(4 - 10:13pm, Jul 24)
Last: Tom NawrockiNewsblog
: OTP 2016 July 18: Girls’ softball teams being shut out of city defibrillator policy, while boys’ teams given life-saving devices
(1753 - 10:11pm, Jul 24)Last:
David Nieporent (now, with children)Newsblog
: Chris Sales sent home because of argument over uniforms
(77 - 10:06pm, Jul 24)
Last: Tin AngelNewsblog
: Report: Yankees say Aroldis Chapman trade near | MLB.com
(68 - 10:01pm, Jul 24)
Last: Spahn Insane, weapons grade plumNewsblog
: Changes are coming to baseball Hall of Fame's veterans' committees | FOX Sports
(40 - 10:00pm, Jul 24)
Last: Dennis Eclairskey, closerNewsblog
: OMNICHATTER 7-24-16
(100 - 9:55pm, Jul 24)Last:
: Tyler Glasnow erratic start ends with injury | pirates.com
(1 - 9:53pm, Jul 24)
Last: PASTE Transcends Almost All Generations (Zeth)Newsblog
: Report: D-backs making teams aware Shelby Miller 'is available'
(8 - 9:20pm, Jul 24)
Last: The Yankee ClapperNewsblog
: Ken Griffey, Mike Piazza set for Hall of Fame | MLB.com
(15 - 7:57pm, Jul 24)
Last: Gonfalon BubbleNewsblog
: Ted Berg: I badly wanted MLB to adopt replay before 2014. Now I find it boring and dumb
(57 - 5:08pm, Jul 24)
Last: There's a bustle in Misirlou's hedgerowNewsblog
: #MLBRank: Barry Bonds, Ty Cobb make Stark's all-time top 10
(41 - 3:59pm, Jul 24)
: OT: 2016 Summer Soccer Thread
(1499 - 2:57pm, Jul 24)Last:
I am going to be FrankNewsblog
: Ichiro Suzuki records 2 hits, 4 shy of 3,000 | MLB.com
(61 - 2:24pm, Jul 24)
Last: Howie MenckelNewsblog
: Rangers' Prince Fielder has herniated disk | texasrangers.com
(46 - 1:35pm, Jul 24)