Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
C’mon now, cancelling the World Series is joyous compared to Arli$$.
Hey Bill, In what context do “one run” offensive strategies (in particular the sacrifice bunt, but also stolen bases) make sense in the early innings of a game? Said another way, how scarce do runs need to be in order to make the sacrifice bunt a favorable strategy in the early innings of a game?
I’m not sure I have a solid understanding of the issue. Billy Southworth bunted constantly in the early innings, believing that the most important thing was to grab the lead. Southworth’s teams were tremendously successful. It could be that if you have a GREAT team, one way to maximize that is to bunt in the early innings. I DOUBT that, but I don’t KNOW that it is untrue. And, as I have pointed out before. . .if the third baseman can’t field a bunt, why not bunt?
Re Southworth’s strategy: I’ve always heard that teams scoring the FIRST run in a game tend to win that game by some ludicrous %, but then I realized that every shutout of course is won by the team scoring the first run, probably equivalent (or close) to the % of wins claimed by the bunting/stealing crowd. Do you see this as blowing a significant hole in the small-ball argument? McCarver used to invoke it like it was heaven-sent wisdom, but I always found it spectacularly dumb.
Well. . .spectacularly dumb is harsh. It’s misleading. If you were to look, for example, at teams that score a run in the bottom of the fourth inning, you would find that those teams win about 70% of their games, just because a) EVERY run you score is highly significant in a contest in which it only takes a few runs to win a game, and b) when you score one run in the bottom of the 4th, very often you will score 2 or more, whereas when you score NO runs in the bottom of the fourth, then you never score 2 or more. It’s not that the first run is hugely significant; it is that every run is hugely significant.
Bill: I don’t expect you to keep printing my input on this. . .
In “Four Sluggers” you tossed in a very interesting generalization that fantasy GMs and possibly real GMs should all know - but I didn’t think was considered general knowledge: ” The usual rule is that a player is consistent when he is young; when he gets older, what he loses is not the ability to produce but the consistency of his production.” Can I take that as fact? Could you, please, elaborate on that? It would make a good subject for a serious study.
I can’t demonstrate that it’s true, no. It seems obvious to me, but then, Amy Adams didn’t win Best Actress for “American Hustle”, so I guess you never know.
Hey Bill, ESPN Magazine has published preseason predictions ( http://assets.espn.go.com/magazine/0331TEAMAL.pdf, http://assets.espn.go.com/magazine/0331TEAMNL.pdf ) based in part on a “chemistry score.” They worked with a couple of professors to build “a proprietary team-chemistry regression model” with three factors: “clubhouse demographics, trait isolation and stratification of performance to pay.” Basically, on each factor, more homogeneity is better: players with similar salaries, experience, race, nationality, etc. Each component gives a result in terms of wins; e.g., the Cubs lose 3.5 wins on “clubhouse demographics” because of “too much diversity”. A fuller summary of the method is here: http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2014/03/espn-on-clubhouse-chemistry.html Any thoughts on this?
Ah. . .it’s happened at last. The happy marriage of sabermetrics and bullshit.
Bill, Selig will retire a the end of this year. Who are the leading candidaes to replace him?
George Will, Bob Costas, Mariano Rivera, Stephen Colbert, Pope Francis, Gwyneth Paltrow, Mitch McConnell, Dale Chihuly, Maui Mike, Rob Neyer, Robert Wuhl, Betty White and Steven Goldleaf. In that order.
for his generous support.
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
: Valencia traded to Toronto
(11 - 7:04pm, Jul 29)
Last: Davo Dozier Newsblog
: OMNICHATTER 7-29-2014
(1 - 7:03pm, Jul 29)
: OTP - July 2014: Republicans Lose To Democrats For Sixth Straight Year In Congressional Baseball Game
(3522 - 6:58pm, Jul 29)Last:
Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in OctoberNewsblog
: Trader Jack? As Seattle's GM struggles to complete deals, some rival executives wonder | FOX Sports
(52 - 6:55pm, Jul 29)
: MASN TV Contract Pits Selig vs Nationals vs Orioles
(12 - 6:48pm, Jul 29)
Last: Joey B.: posting for the kids of northeast OhioNewsblog
: Which Players Will Be Most Affected by the Hall of Fame’s New Rules?
(4 - 6:48pm, Jul 29)
Last: McCoy Newsblog
: Howard: David Ortiz shaping up to become first steroid era Teflon slugger
(18 - 6:37pm, Jul 29)
Last: 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### peopleNewsblog
: ‘Caucasians’ T-shirt mocking Cleveland Indians becomes hot seller on reserves
(23 - 6:23pm, Jul 29)
Last: Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hatNewsblog
: ABC News: ‘Capital Games’: How Congress Saved the Baseball Hall of Fame
(44 - 6:20pm, Jul 29)
Last: Ray (RDP)Newsblog
: Newsweek: With Big Data, Moneyball Will Be on Steroids
(7 - 6:09pm, Jul 29)
Last: A New LeafNewsblog
: Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 7-29-2014
(44 - 6:08pm, Jul 29)
: Sickels: George McClellan, Dayton Moore, and the Kansas City Royals
(631 - 5:54pm, Jul 29)Last:
: Full Count » Tim Kurkjian on MFB: ‘I’m going to say that Jon Lester is not going to be traded’
(29 - 5:36pm, Jul 29)
Last: The Yankee ClapperNewsblog
: Gossage on Bonds, McGwire Hall hopes: ‘Are you f–king kidding?’
(156 - 5:36pm, Jul 29)Last:
: SOE: Minor League Manhood - A first-hand account of masculine sports culture run amok.
(3 - 5:35pm, Jul 29)
Last: ursus arctos