Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
C’mon now, cancelling the World Series is joyous compared to Arli$$.
Hey Bill, In what context do “one run” offensive strategies (in particular the sacrifice bunt, but also stolen bases) make sense in the early innings of a game? Said another way, how scarce do runs need to be in order to make the sacrifice bunt a favorable strategy in the early innings of a game?
I’m not sure I have a solid understanding of the issue. Billy Southworth bunted constantly in the early innings, believing that the most important thing was to grab the lead. Southworth’s teams were tremendously successful. It could be that if you have a GREAT team, one way to maximize that is to bunt in the early innings. I DOUBT that, but I don’t KNOW that it is untrue. And, as I have pointed out before. . .if the third baseman can’t field a bunt, why not bunt?
Re Southworth’s strategy: I’ve always heard that teams scoring the FIRST run in a game tend to win that game by some ludicrous %, but then I realized that every shutout of course is won by the team scoring the first run, probably equivalent (or close) to the % of wins claimed by the bunting/stealing crowd. Do you see this as blowing a significant hole in the small-ball argument? McCarver used to invoke it like it was heaven-sent wisdom, but I always found it spectacularly dumb.
Well. . .spectacularly dumb is harsh. It’s misleading. If you were to look, for example, at teams that score a run in the bottom of the fourth inning, you would find that those teams win about 70% of their games, just because a) EVERY run you score is highly significant in a contest in which it only takes a few runs to win a game, and b) when you score one run in the bottom of the 4th, very often you will score 2 or more, whereas when you score NO runs in the bottom of the fourth, then you never score 2 or more. It’s not that the first run is hugely significant; it is that every run is hugely significant.
Bill: I don’t expect you to keep printing my input on this. . .
In “Four Sluggers” you tossed in a very interesting generalization that fantasy GMs and possibly real GMs should all know - but I didn’t think was considered general knowledge: ” The usual rule is that a player is consistent when he is young; when he gets older, what he loses is not the ability to produce but the consistency of his production.” Can I take that as fact? Could you, please, elaborate on that? It would make a good subject for a serious study.
I can’t demonstrate that it’s true, no. It seems obvious to me, but then, Amy Adams didn’t win Best Actress for “American Hustle”, so I guess you never know.
Hey Bill, ESPN Magazine has published preseason predictions ( http://assets.espn.go.com/magazine/0331TEAMAL.pdf, http://assets.espn.go.com/magazine/0331TEAMNL.pdf ) based in part on a “chemistry score.” They worked with a couple of professors to build “a proprietary team-chemistry regression model” with three factors: “clubhouse demographics, trait isolation and stratification of performance to pay.” Basically, on each factor, more homogeneity is better: players with similar salaries, experience, race, nationality, etc. Each component gives a result in terms of wins; e.g., the Cubs lose 3.5 wins on “clubhouse demographics” because of “too much diversity”. A fuller summary of the method is here: http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2014/03/espn-on-clubhouse-chemistry.html Any thoughts on this?
Ah. . .it’s happened at last. The happy marriage of sabermetrics and bullshit.
Bill, Selig will retire a the end of this year. Who are the leading candidaes to replace him?
George Will, Bob Costas, Mariano Rivera, Stephen Colbert, Pope Francis, Gwyneth Paltrow, Mitch McConnell, Dale Chihuly, Maui Mike, Rob Neyer, Robert Wuhl, Betty White and Steven Goldleaf. In that order.
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
: OTP 2016 April 25: Forget politics, baseball season in full gear
(1719 - 9:47am, May 01)Last:
: An oral history of Kirk Gibson's 1988 World Series home run
(6 - 9:38am, May 01)
Last: Rowland Office SuppliesNewsblog
: Replay catches Albert Pujols off bag and costs LA Angels in loss at Texas
(1 - 9:24am, May 01)
Last: Jose Remains The Most Absurd Thing on the SiteNewsblog
: Sherman: How baseball enticed Dee Gordon to use PEDs
(39 - 9:22am, May 01)
: 4-30 OMNICHATTER
(107 - 8:47am, May 01)Last:
: Miami Herald: MLB has suspended Dee Gordon for 80 games after he tested positive for PEDs
(58 - 6:18am, May 01)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)Newsblog
: OT: NBA Playoffs Thread 2016
(964 - 4:24am, May 01)Last:
: Beyond the Boxscore: Joe Mauer is back.
(1 - 1:29am, May 01)
Last: Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose TacosNewsblog
: Ot: 2015-2016 NHL Thread
(248 - 1:09am, May 01)Last:
PASTE Transcends Almost All Generations (Zeth)Newsblog
: FG - Rate Your MLB Broadcaster
(85 - 12:15am, May 01)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)Newsblog
: 2016 New York City Softball Game
(104 - 10:26pm, Apr 30)Last:
: Ted Cruz the latest victim of politicians trying to talk sports | NBC SportsWorld
(117 - 7:29pm, Apr 30)Last:
Hysterical & UselessNewsblog
: Hardball Times: The Doug Mirabelli Trade, an Oral History
(14 - 6:30pm, Apr 30)
Last: Golfing Great Mitch CumsteinNewsblog
: 4-29-16 OMNICHATTER
(212 - 5:42pm, Apr 30)Last:
Bote Man makes baseball fun againNewsblog
: Astros, Rangers Exploring Carolina League Teams
(2 - 5:12pm, Apr 30)
Last: PASTE Transcends Almost All Generations (Zeth)