Free agent B.J. Upton has agreed to a with the Atlanta Braves, according to multiple reports. USA Today reports that it is a five-year deal for at least $70 million
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1. Darren
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:19 PM (#4311864)
5/70? Sounds cheap! I heard on the radio that Olney didn't think Swisher would get more than 4/50. What is with these cheapo prices?
Depends on how much you value defensive WAR. Bourn garners half of his WAR value from defense. Upton's a clear downgrade there, and he's a clear downgrade for OBP. But on the other hand, he's 2 years younger and can actually hit the ball past an outfielder on occasion. All told, OPS+ suggests they're basically a wash. As long as the Braves don't put him at leadoff (and there's no reason to suggest they will) this is a better signing than Bourn, just due to age. (I also shy away from Bourn as he ages because his value is all in his legs, and legs get old fast.)
7. Arbitol Dijaler
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4311873)
Unfortunate that the Mets can't afford guys like this.
8. formerly dp
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:29 PM (#4311874)
Yeah, way cheaper than I expected. He has been remarkably consistent the past three years, hopefully he'll continue to be a sub-.250 hitter as a Brave.
Unfortunate that the Mets can't afford guys like this.
Really? This is the guy you regret not being able to snag? Edit: if the Mets were on the verge of being good, this would be a worthwhile signing, just on the gamble that Upton takes a step forward.
Without looking it up, he seems to have morphed into Mike Cameron without the highlight-reel glove.
If the Braves can find a thumper for left field (and considering who they've run out there in the past, the cartoon rabbit would probably be an upgrade), it'll be a nice little off-season already. Maybe Swisher, maybe my old favorite Josh Willingham.
11. Cris E
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:36 PM (#4311879)
I guess they felt that the money spent on Upton plus the pile of pitching they didn't trade away was a better investment than trading for Span or Cain. I wonder if that turns out to be true. Meanwhile, the CF dominoes can start to fall.
12. Darren
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:39 PM (#4311881)
Is Willingham available? He seems like a great value.
On that contract I like it. He provides *some* power to offset the loss of Chipper, the few years he has on Bourn and the lack of relying entirely on speed that Bourn does is nice too. Probably cheaper too.
I guess they felt that the money spent on Upton plus the pile of pitching they didn't trade away was a better investment than trading for Span or Cain.
I'd rather have Upton for Span, he's a better hitter and he's younger, especially when he costs nothing to get. Cain, meh.
If the Braves can find a thumper for left field
Uggla for Soriano. You know you want it Cubs fans.
16. Willie Mayspedes
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:45 PM (#4311888)
You think their big free agent signing will hit 7th?
No, I think their big free agent signing will hit second or third, depending on whether or not Andrelton Simmons' bat plays the same next year as it did in his rookie season. I simply think Swisher is the bigger free agent 'get' than Upton.
I also think Upton just as easily bats fifth while Dan Uggla strikes out swinging in the seventh spot.
Dammit! I thought the Braves had forgotten they were allowed to sign free agents. This bodes ill.
20. Willie Mayspedes
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:54 PM (#4311897)
Ahh that makes sense.
21. andrewberg
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:59 PM (#4311900)
Cameron without the glove is a bit like Ricky Henderson without the steals, no? That's an overstatement--maybe Tim Raines without the steals.
He said without the highlight reel glove. I think Upton is a pretty decent CF if not the GG caliber that Cameron was at his peak. An average CF glove is still pretty valuable. And Rickey would have been an ok player without the steals too.
I think Upton is a pretty decent CF if not the GG caliber that Cameron was at his peak. An average CF glove is still pretty valuable.
During the Years of Pain and Hunger I would occasionally ask the silent gods, "why couldn't you at least make Francoeur a decent glove in CF?!"
Now we have that.
23. formerly dp
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 07:08 PM (#4311906)
He said without the highlight reel glove. I think Upton is a pretty decent CF if not the GG caliber that Cameron was at his peak.
Right, it wasn't meant as a slam at all. Looked it up-- Cameron hit .249/.338/.444 for his career, with 23 HR and 23 SB/162. Melvin's at .255/.336/.422, 20 HR 39 SB/162. Saying that someone's no Mike Cameron with the glove is hardly a diss-- Cameron was amazing out there, and his defense declined rather slowly IIRC.
Heh, I'm really surprised the Phillies didn't push this a little farther than 5/70. We'll wait for details. According to Jayson Stark, the Phils are not interested in Bourn and Pagan is going back to SF. I doubt they go for Victorino.
26. Arbitol Dijaler
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 07:28 PM (#4311925)
Upton would be a significant upgrade over Duda/Neiwenhuis/Baxter/Valdespin, with a chance for upside. There's very little on the horizon to fill the Mets' most glaring need. Think Cory Vaughn is a major leaguer?
seems like a bit much to me but i have likely not adjusted for a blah class with a fair amount of money waiting to be spent in the market
good for upton.
28. Conor
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 07:33 PM (#4311935)
Upton would be a significant upgrade over Duda/Neiwenhuis/Baxter/Valdespin, with a chance for upside. There's very little on the horizon to fill the Mets' most glaring need. Think Cory Vaughn is a major leaguer?
I agree with this. I understand the idea of saying Upton would be a good signing if they were on the verge of being good, which they aren't, but at the same time, it's a lot harder to become good without signing good players. Where are the major league OF coming from in the Mets system?
29. PreservedFish
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 07:37 PM (#4311941)
I understand the idea of saying Upton would be a good signing if they were on the verge of being good, which they aren't, but at the same time, it's a lot harder to become good without signing good players.
I cringe now whenever I read the "won't play for the next good _____ team" comment.
30. formerly dp
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 07:39 PM (#4311943)
Think Cory Vaughn is a major leaguer?
Do I look like Sam M?
They do need to keep CF clear so the Cesar Puello era can someday begin. Kidding.
Where are the major league OF coming from in the Mets system?
They could probably get a decent OF prospect if they moved Wright. And they have Flores or Murphy to play 3B.
31. Conor
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 07:47 PM (#4311947)
They could probably get a decent OF prospect if they moved Wright. And they have Flores or Murphy to play 3B.
I guess but then you just traded away your best player and opened up a hole somewhere else. Flores isn't ready now, if he will ever be. If the debate is between spending money or trading away David Wright, I'm going to go with spending the money.
Not that I thought the Mets had any interest in getting Upton, mainly because i don't think they have the money to spend but if they did I wouldn't have a problem with them throwing some cash around to speed up the rebuilding process.
32. Chris Fluit
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 07:54 PM (#4311954)
With Upton landing in Atlanta, does this mean Bourn ends up with the Nationals?
33. formerly dp
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:09 PM (#4311964)
I guess but then you just traded away your best player and opened up a hole somewhere else. Flores isn't ready now, if he will ever be.
I was just sort of playing there, though if I were trading Wright I would try to get OF/hitting depth in return. I agree that Flores isn't ready now, but he took a big step forward this year at age 20, and actually improved after being promoted. Marte is stuck in neutral, but Wilmer looks like he's making good on his advertised potential.
He said without the highlight reel glove. I think Upton is a pretty decent CF if not the GG caliber that Cameron was at his peak. An average CF glove is still pretty valuable. And Rickey would have been an ok player without the steals too.
Rickey without the steals is still a HOF-worthy player. 13,000+ plate appearances with an OBP-heavy 127 OPS+. That's like Eddie Murray but better.
Rickey without the steals is still a HOF-worthy player.
Remember, if you split him into two, there were 2 HOF players left.
36. Arbitol Dijaler
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:23 PM (#4311973)
I was just sort of playing there, though if I were trading Wright I would try to get OF/hitting depth in return.
Mets with normal finances would have been all over Upton, assuming they had this crap outfield to begin with, next coming of Mays though he ain't. Though he certainly looked like maybe he was when he was 22. Shoot, wouldn't it be great marketing to have BOTH Uptons?
37. zonk
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:24 PM (#4311974)
That does seem awfully cheap... I wouldn't have minded the Cubs being in on that, even despite not having anywhere for him to play (I'm assuming here that Jackson, even with the prodigious K's, has CF next year).
Uggla for Soriano. You know you want it Cubs fans.
Nope, not anymore... at this point, the thought of a straight up bad contract dump doesn't make any sense for the Cubs. Yes - 35 mil ain't chump change, but Soriano's just got this coming season and the next left and there are no other millstone contracts on the roster.
Absolutely, I'd still deal Fonsie... but I'd want something like a lottery ticket back, not another bad contract with more time left. Just to be clear - also absolutely, I don't expect anyone to trade anything of value for Soriano... but at this point, that's the price.
Either someone is desperate enough to do something foolish, or, he plays LF next year and depending on how that goes - finishes the contract as a Cub, regardless of whether the end of that contract comes with a 2014 DFA or him actually finishing the season.
38. formerly dp
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:44 PM (#4311980)
More mobile than Sanchez. More accuracy than Tebow.
46. Esoteric
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 10:15 PM (#4312035)
With Upton landing in Atlanta, does this mean Bourn ends up with the Nationals?
Extremely, extremely unlikely. The Nationals look set to keep Harper in centerfield, where he shows every indication of becoming a legitimately plus-defender (he has the tools, it's just about the learning curve). If they fail to re-sign Adam LaRoche (or fail to sign/trade for a suitable replacement) then Mike Morse will move to 1B and they'll most likely give Tyler Moore a chance to earn the starter's job in LF.
The only thing I expect the Nationals to add during the offseason is another starter (to replace Edwin Jackson) and a pair of relievers.
47. OCD SS
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 10:22 PM (#4312039)
I had to go back and look at Upton's career to see if my memory was holding up. I remember that he looked great in '07 and that he was fighting an injury that seemed to get right just in time for his power to return in the ALCS in '08. After that he sort of slid into mediocrity.
He looked like he cratered in '08 and has been putting up a rough .750 OPS with decent, not great, CF defense (I think he looks a bit better than UZR says, but not by much) for that last 3 years. This is a $75M player?
I think this sums up what backlash I've seen in response to this deal. I had one guy say that if he was spending "Chipper Jones money" he expected Chipper Jones production. I had to remind him that a healthy Chipper Jones would be making Albert Pujols money, not a meager $15mil per year.
49. billyshears
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 11:30 PM (#4312075)
I think this is a really good move for the Braves. Upton is presently worth the money, isn't likely to significantly decline throughout the length of the contract, and I still think there is some upside there.
50. Sweatpants
Posted: November 28, 2012 at 11:49 PM (#4312084)
I think this is a really good move for the Braves. Upton is presently worth the money, isn't likely to significantly decline throughout the length of the contract, and I still think there is some upside there.
The one thing that worries me is that his plate discipline has gotten progressively worse since 2008.
I wholeheartedly support this deal, for no other reason than it puts me (temporarily, I'm sure, so all the more reason to crow about it now) in the lead in the free agent selection contest.
52. Walt Davis
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 12:23 AM (#4312099)
Grrr ... I had Phillies (or Rangers)
And thus the dominoes of my expected-to-be-lousy FA predictions fall.
Has Kuroda officially signed yet? That would give me one. I know, everybody got that one but at least it's one.
53. jingoist
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 12:31 AM (#4312102)
#46 - Esoteric; you are spot-on with that analysis.
I doubt they'll sign a high profile starter either; just a cromulent 4th or 5th starter.
Do you think they will let Burnett find another home; or will they resign him after he doesn't get the kind of money he thinks he will get from other teams?
54. DFA
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 01:55 AM (#4312118)
For an AAV of $15M per season for someone who had on OBP of 298 in his age 27 season? Not sure I would want to invest that kind of coin in something less than a really good player.
55. Jim Wisinski
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 02:52 AM (#4312125)
I'm happy to see Upton getting paid and I'm very pleased that he's doing so with the Braves. I was a Braves fan in the mid-90s and still quasi-root for them, plus it's not an AL team.
Thanks for the memories BJ, you were one of the most important players on the 2008-12 successful Rays teams and to hell with the idiots that never recognized that.
56. Ben V-L
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 04:26 AM (#4312129)
Remember, if you split him into two, there were 2 HOF players left.
So he was worth two dead halves of a person AND two HOF players?
59. formerly dp
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 07:14 AM (#4312147)
That line from last year looks like a 'walk year, trade some walks for homers' effort. Career highs in HR and strikeouts, career low in walks.
12 of Upton's 28 homers came in September, 18 came from August 11 on. He was having an absolutely miserable year, especially in the power department: .242/.298/.378. He didn't do anything different except start hitting homers by the boatload, .254/.299/.599 from August 11 to the end of the season. Upton's September probably added another $20 million to his payday.
60. Rants Mulliniks
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 08:39 AM (#4312166)
Upton has been intriguing and frustrating. If he could put everything together (defense, walks, power, and steals) in one year he'd be an MVP-level player. Maybe he can do this for the Braves, who at least have real fans, but I wouldn't bet on it and I think its a sginificant overpay.
Extremely, extremely unlikely. The Nationals look set to keep Harper in centerfield, where he shows every indication of becoming a legitimately plus-defender (he has the tools, it's just about the learning curve). If they fail to re-sign Adam LaRoche (or fail to sign/trade for a suitable replacement) then Mike Morse will move to 1B and they'll most likely give Tyler Moore a chance to earn the starter's job in LF.
I'd really prefer to see the Nats avoid Bourn. Of the big free agents, I'm most interested in Swisher for the Nats
62. Tippecanoe
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 09:19 AM (#4312199)
I also think Upton just as easily bats fifth while Dan Uggla strikes out swinging in the seventh spot.
I know BJ is younger, but do Braves fans think Upton at $14M per year is great, but Uggla at $13M per year is terrible? They don't look much alike, but the two are similar players -- average or below at a premier defensive position while providing low batting average TTO-based offense, and of course similar surnames.
It won't be a surprise if Upton 2013 puts up just the kind of numbers Uggla has been posting.
From the ages of 26-31 Uggla put up consistent +3 WAR seasons, with a +5 WAR in there as a career year. In his 32 year old season (last year) he faded to a +2.
Upton's 26 year old season was 2011. He's put up +3 WAR seasons in his 26 and 27 year old seasons. The Braves are banking on him putting up similar average seasons through his 32 year old season, with hopefully a spike to +5 in there as well.
The problem with Uggla wasn't the last two years. The problem with Uggla's contract is that he's locked in for his 33 and 34 year old season as well.
64. Tippecanoe
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 09:35 AM (#4312214)
The problem with Uggla's contract is that he's locked in for his 33 and 34 year old season as well.
I'd oppose a contract more than 2 years with a third option for Swisher. But I wouldn't fear a Swisher contract into his mid 30s as much as I fear the last two years of Uggla's deal, because Swisher's offensive profile and career path project better than Uggla's.
You'd have to figure Teheran... but given his muddling last year, more, too - right? The Braves would seem to have that - Teheran + Delgado is probably too much... but maybe Teheran + Bethancourt + one of the lesser arms (Spruill maybe)? Maybe a few spare parts... Lipka? Pastornicky?
That would seem to be a perfectly good trade for both teams (working off the assumption that AZ inexplicably feels they MUST move Upton) - Teheran is still a top notch prospect, but the Braves would still have Delgado and the rotation is hardly thin. McCann scuffled a fair bit last year, but he's still under 30 so I don't think he's going Ozzie Virgil just yet...
68. JJ1986
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 10:09 AM (#4312241)
Arizona is obsessed with adding a young shortstop for Upton. It'd probably take Simmons.
But with the Winter Meetings preparing to start on Monday, the trade market could certainly begin heating up. This could help the Braves gauge what kind of market there is for Tommy Hanson, who won 13 games this past season and was heralded as the game’s top pitching prospect just three years ago.
By trading Hanson, the Braves could free up approximately $4 million and increase their options in their search to find another outfielder. This could open the door to negotiate with free-agent Shane Victorino, who could play left field and hit leadoff. Victorino will likely get a three-year deal worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $27 million.
Another interesting potential trade for the Braves could involve Justin Upton, who will be at Turner Field today for his older brother’s press conference. If the D-backs end up deciding they are going to trade the younger Upton, the Braves could certainly show some interest. But to be in position to complete this deal, they would likely have to trade Hanson or free up a portion of their payroll in another manner.
Originally, Bowman suggested Teheran+Nick Ahmed might get it done, but that's no longer up at his blog.
71. zonk
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 10:20 AM (#4312257)
Arizona is obsessed with adding a young shortstop for Upton. It'd probably take Simmons.
Yeesh... Simmons really had a nice burst onto the scene before getting hurt, but that just seemed so far over his head compared to minor league numbers and most scouting projections, I think I'd almost be giddy to do that if I were the Braves... and I say this as someone that had Simmons as a minor league roto keeper and plan to carry him over in 2013 as a keeper in the hopes that he proves me wrong. He just looks like Walt Weiss to me - which is certainly valuable, but not what I'd want out of dealing Justin Upton.
I know BJ is younger, but do Braves fans think Upton at $14M per year is great, but Uggla at $13M per year is terrible?
Uggla isn't hated because he makes $13M, he's hated because he bumped a fan favorite out of his position for no good reason and then proceded to hit .225 with embarrassingly bad defense.
Simmons really had a nice burst onto the scene before getting hurt, but that just seemed so far over his head compared to minor league numbers and most scouting projections, I think I'd almost be giddy to do that if I were the Braves... and I say this as someone that had Simmons as a minor league roto keeper and plan to carry him over in 2013 as a keeper in the hopes that he proves me wrong. He just looks like Walt Weiss to me - which is certainly valuable, but not what I'd want out of dealing Justin Upton.
For the record, this is anathema to most Braves fans, who see Simmons as one of the most valuable properties in baseball. His defense really is spectacular, so if he can hit at all he's a real asset for a team, especially in the cost controlled years. (Granted, many Braves fans may be gunshy about dealing away Simmons because they still feel the burn from the haul they lost for Mark Teixeira.)
Uggla isn't hated because he makes $13M, he's hated because he bumped a fan favorite out of his position for no good reason and then proceded to hit .225 with embarrassingly bad defense.
And because the expectations from most Braves fans were too high. They thought they were getting a middle of the order masher. They got Dan Uggla. To his defense, Uggla's defense at 2B hasn't been that much worse than Prado's before him. Prado is far more valuable defensively as a +LF or a +3B than as a -2B.
Doesn't matter though, perception trumps reality when it comes to Uggla and Prado. Uggla's defensive value may not be any worse than Prado's was, but he looks so pathetic out there that he appears to be the worst fielding 2B ever. Plus his tiny little arms are annoying.
I will say this. The fact that Uggla is a short little ###### who couldn't stretch to make a simple catch on a high throw from 3B may be reason enough to kill him.
77. Tippecanoe
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 10:50 AM (#4312303)
perception trumps reality when it comes to Uggla
It really comes down to a misunderstanding of the importance of batting average. So Upton may be seen in the same light.
It really comes down to a misunderstanding of the importance of batting average. So Upton may be seen in the same light.
I disagree. Last year he was hitting home runs, but nothing else. This year he wasn't hitting at all, only drawing walks. They already had a .750 OPS/103 OPS+ 2B in Prado. Actually, Prado is better than that. Uggla hasn't produced enough to justify choosing to add him over keeping Prado at 2B and getting a real LF. And in hindsight (which rightly or wrongly matters in terms of fan perception) Omar Infante would have been nice to have around this year.
79. Tippecanoe
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4312370)
I'm not a Braves fan, but I live in Atlanta, and my impression of the reaction to the Uggla signing is that Joe Average Braves Fan was all for it. Then Uggla outperformed Prado in 2011. So this must be about 2012, making it entirely hindsight.
And while I agree that Uggla is not a particularly good signing by Wren given that a perfomance decline was predictable, it seems like a majority of free agent signings nowadays are an overpay on the back end. I guess that makes the Upton deal better than many.
I know we're discussing the perception of Joe Bravesfan so this may be too much nuance, but there's a real distinction between judging the trade for Uggla (sending Infante to Miami, which was a clear win at the time) and the 5-year contract extension for Uggla (which is where the real downside of Uggla's aging path comes into play.)
This makes him the highest-paid CF ever, no? Twitterverse points out that the only OFs to be paid more are Jason Bay, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee, but I feel like that list is missing some names.
I'm not a Braves fan, but I live in Atlanta, and my impression of the reaction to the Uggla signing is that Joe Average Braves Fan was all for it.
That's not the reaction that I saw, but YMMV.
This makes him the highest-paid CF ever, no?
At $14M? No. Curtis Granderson makes more and I stopped looking after seeing his salary.
83. JJ1986
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 11:48 AM (#4312386)
This makes him the highest-paid CF ever, no? Twitterverse points out that the only OFs to be paid more are Jason Bay, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee, but I feel like that list is missing some names.
Matt Kemp
84. flournoy
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4312459)
Andruw Jones got a higher annual salary from the Dodgers than B.J. Upton got from the Braves. I will bravely go out on a limb and suggest that Upton will work out better than Jones.
Carlos Beltran got 7/$119 from the Mets, which is more years at a higher average salary.
87. villageidiom
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 03:20 PM (#4312651)
Um... 8/$160 for Manny Ramirez. Twelve years ago.
88. Bug Selig
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4312695)
Thanks for the mental image of Manny Ramirez doing everything but taking his pants off and catching fly balls in some CF expanse.
89. Nasty Nate
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4312707)
Twitterverse points out that the only OFs to be paid more are Jason Bay, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee, but I feel like that list is missing some names.
Just to pile on: Barry Bonds, Vernon Wells, Carl Crawford, Alfosno Soriano, & Torii Hunter.
90. Nasty Nate
Posted: November 29, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4312712)
As far as Justin Upton goes, I would guess that his trade value has been going down for a couple of years as remaining time of team control diminished and his salaries are going up.
People think of him to as some un-tradeable monster asset, but that thinking might be a little outdated (this is also true to a lesser extent for King Felix).
91. Shoebo
Posted: November 30, 2012 at 03:20 AM (#4313127)
Last 3 seasons
Player WAR/pos OPS+ Rfield G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Chris Young 11.7 103 45 413 1686 1476 219 359 95 3 61 203 190 363 8 17 58 19 .243 .331 .436 .766 B.J. Upton 6.4 110 -30 453 1883 1669 250 404 94 11 69 221 183 494 7 42 109 27 .242 .317 .436 .753
That Billy Bean guy might know a thing or two. He got two years of CY for Pennington 20 million. Thats a lot better deal than being locked into either one of these guys for 5 years.
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1. DarrenThe Rays should have re-signed him for that.
Depends on how much you value defensive WAR. Bourn garners half of his WAR value from defense. Upton's a clear downgrade there, and he's a clear downgrade for OBP. But on the other hand, he's 2 years younger and can actually hit the ball past an outfielder on occasion. All told, OPS+ suggests they're basically a wash. As long as the Braves don't put him at leadoff (and there's no reason to suggest they will) this is a better signing than Bourn, just due to age. (I also shy away from Bourn as he ages because his value is all in his legs, and legs get old fast.)
Really? This is the guy you regret not being able to snag? Edit: if the Mets were on the verge of being good, this would be a worthwhile signing, just on the gamble that Upton takes a step forward.
Without looking it up, he seems to have morphed into Mike Cameron without the highlight-reel glove.
Prado (3B)
Swisher (LF)
Heyward (RF)
Freeman (1B)
Uggla (2B)
McCann (C)
Upton (CF)
Simmons (SS)
Not a bad lineup.
I'd rather have Upton for Span, he's a better hitter and he's younger, especially when he costs nothing to get. Cain, meh.
Uggla for Soriano. You know you want it Cubs fans.
You think their big free agent signing will hit 7th?
No, I think their big free agent signing will hit second or third, depending on whether or not Andrelton Simmons' bat plays the same next year as it did in his rookie season. I simply think Swisher is the bigger free agent 'get' than Upton.
I also think Upton just as easily bats fifth while Dan Uggla strikes out swinging in the seventh spot.
He said without the highlight reel glove. I think Upton is a pretty decent CF if not the GG caliber that Cameron was at his peak. An average CF glove is still pretty valuable. And Rickey would have been an ok player without the steals too.
During the Years of Pain and Hunger I would occasionally ask the silent gods, "why couldn't you at least make Francoeur a decent glove in CF?!"
Now we have that.
good for upton.
I agree with this. I understand the idea of saying Upton would be a good signing if they were on the verge of being good, which they aren't, but at the same time, it's a lot harder to become good without signing good players. Where are the major league OF coming from in the Mets system?
I cringe now whenever I read the "won't play for the next good _____ team" comment.
They do need to keep CF clear so the Cesar Puello era can someday begin. Kidding.
They could probably get a decent OF prospect if they moved Wright. And they have Flores or Murphy to play 3B.
I guess but then you just traded away your best player and opened up a hole somewhere else. Flores isn't ready now, if he will ever be. If the debate is between spending money or trading away David Wright, I'm going to go with spending the money.
Not that I thought the Mets had any interest in getting Upton, mainly because i don't think they have the money to spend but if they did I wouldn't have a problem with them throwing some cash around to speed up the rebuilding process.
He said without the highlight reel glove. I think Upton is a pretty decent CF if not the GG caliber that Cameron was at his peak. An average CF glove is still pretty valuable. And Rickey would have been an ok player without the steals too.
Rickey without the steals is still a HOF-worthy player. 13,000+ plate appearances with an OBP-heavy 127 OPS+. That's like Eddie Murray but better.
Remember, if you split him into two, there were 2 HOF players left.
Mets with normal finances would have been all over Upton, assuming they had this crap outfield to begin with, next coming of Mays though he ain't. Though he certainly looked like maybe he was when he was 22. Shoot, wouldn't it be great marketing to have BOTH Uptons?
Nope, not anymore... at this point, the thought of a straight up bad contract dump doesn't make any sense for the Cubs. Yes - 35 mil ain't chump change, but Soriano's just got this coming season and the next left and there are no other millstone contracts on the roster.
Absolutely, I'd still deal Fonsie... but I'd want something like a lottery ticket back, not another bad contract with more time left. Just to be clear - also absolutely, I don't expect anyone to trade anything of value for Soriano... but at this point, that's the price.
Either someone is desperate enough to do something foolish, or, he plays LF next year and depending on how that goes - finishes the contract as a Cub, regardless of whether the end of that contract comes with a 2014 DFA or him actually finishing the season.
Apparently the other one was an AMAZING pinch runner since Rickey #1 got all the at bats.
That's okay. You'll always have the Jets!
I was rooting for them to sign Upton to play QB.
More mobile than Sanchez. More accuracy than Tebow.
The only thing I expect the Nationals to add during the offseason is another starter (to replace Edwin Jackson) and a pair of relievers.
He looked like he cratered in '08 and has been putting up a rough .750 OPS with decent, not great, CF defense (I think he looks a bit better than UZR says, but not by much) for that last 3 years. This is a $75M player?
I think this sums up what backlash I've seen in response to this deal. I had one guy say that if he was spending "Chipper Jones money" he expected Chipper Jones production. I had to remind him that a healthy Chipper Jones would be making Albert Pujols money, not a meager $15mil per year.
And thus the dominoes of my expected-to-be-lousy FA predictions fall.
Has Kuroda officially signed yet? That would give me one. I know, everybody got that one but at least it's one.
I doubt they'll sign a high profile starter either; just a cromulent 4th or 5th starter.
Do you think they will let Burnett find another home; or will they resign him after he doesn't get the kind of money he thinks he will get from other teams?
Thanks for the memories BJ, you were one of the most important players on the 2008-12 successful Rays teams and to hell with the idiots that never recognized that.
So he was worth two dead halves of a person AND two HOF players?
That line from last year looks like a 'walk year, trade some walks for homers' effort. Career highs in HR and strikeouts, career low in walks.
Upton, B (CF)
Prado (3B)
Upton, J (LF)
Heyward (RF)
Freeman (1B)
McCann (C)
Uggla (2B)
Pennington (SS)
I'd really prefer to see the Nats avoid Bourn. Of the big free agents, I'm most interested in Swisher for the Nats
I know BJ is younger, but do Braves fans think Upton at $14M per year is great, but Uggla at $13M per year is terrible? They don't look much alike, but the two are similar players -- average or below at a premier defensive position while providing low batting average TTO-based offense, and of course similar surnames.
It won't be a surprise if Upton 2013 puts up just the kind of numbers Uggla has been posting.
Upton's 26 year old season was 2011. He's put up +3 WAR seasons in his 26 and 27 year old seasons. The Braves are banking on him putting up similar average seasons through his 32 year old season, with hopefully a spike to +5 in there as well.
The problem with Uggla wasn't the last two years. The problem with Uggla's contract is that he's locked in for his 33 and 34 year old season as well.
Then you'd oppose a Swisher contract, right?
I wonder... what would it cost the Braves?
You'd have to figure Teheran... but given his muddling last year, more, too - right? The Braves would seem to have that - Teheran + Delgado is probably too much... but maybe Teheran + Bethancourt + one of the lesser arms (Spruill maybe)? Maybe a few spare parts... Lipka? Pastornicky?
That would seem to be a perfectly good trade for both teams (working off the assumption that AZ inexplicably feels they MUST move Upton) - Teheran is still a top notch prospect, but the Braves would still have Delgado and the rotation is hardly thin. McCann scuffled a fair bit last year, but he's still under 30 so I don't think he's going Ozzie Virgil just yet...
Mark Bowman last night...
Yeesh... Simmons really had a nice burst onto the scene before getting hurt, but that just seemed so far over his head compared to minor league numbers and most scouting projections, I think I'd almost be giddy to do that if I were the Braves... and I say this as someone that had Simmons as a minor league roto keeper and plan to carry him over in 2013 as a keeper in the hopes that he proves me wrong. He just looks like Walt Weiss to me - which is certainly valuable, but not what I'd want out of dealing Justin Upton.
Uggla isn't hated because he makes $13M, he's hated because he bumped a fan favorite out of his position for no good reason and then proceded to hit .225 with embarrassingly bad defense.
For the record, this is anathema to most Braves fans, who see Simmons as one of the most valuable properties in baseball. His defense really is spectacular, so if he can hit at all he's a real asset for a team, especially in the cost controlled years. (Granted, many Braves fans may be gunshy about dealing away Simmons because they still feel the burn from the haul they lost for Mark Teixeira.)
And because the expectations from most Braves fans were too high. They thought they were getting a middle of the order masher. They got Dan Uggla. To his defense, Uggla's defense at 2B hasn't been that much worse than Prado's before him. Prado is far more valuable defensively as a +LF or a +3B than as a -2B.
I will say this. The fact that Uggla is a short little ###### who couldn't stretch to make a simple catch on a high throw from 3B may be reason enough to kill him.
It really comes down to a misunderstanding of the importance of batting average. So Upton may be seen in the same light.
I disagree. Last year he was hitting home runs, but nothing else. This year he wasn't hitting at all, only drawing walks. They already had a .750 OPS/103 OPS+ 2B in Prado. Actually, Prado is better than that. Uggla hasn't produced enough to justify choosing to add him over keeping Prado at 2B and getting a real LF. And in hindsight (which rightly or wrongly matters in terms of fan perception) Omar Infante would have been nice to have around this year.
And while I agree that Uggla is not a particularly good signing by Wren given that a perfomance decline was predictable, it seems like a majority of free agent signings nowadays are an overpay on the back end. I guess that makes the Upton deal better than many.
That's not the reaction that I saw, but YMMV.
At $14M? No. Curtis Granderson makes more and I stopped looking after seeing his salary.
Matt Kemp
Carlos Beltran got 7/$119 from the Mets, which is more years at a higher average salary.
Just to pile on: Barry Bonds, Vernon Wells, Carl Crawford, Alfosno Soriano, & Torii Hunter.
People think of him to as some un-tradeable monster asset, but that thinking might be a little outdated (this is also true to a lesser extent for King Felix).
Player WAR/pos OPS+ Rfield G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPSChris Young 11.7 103 45 413 1686 1476 219 359 95 3 61 203 190 363 8 17 58 19 .243 .331 .436 .766
B.J. Upton 6.4 110 -30 453 1883 1669 250 404 94 11 69 221 183 494 7 42 109 27 .242 .317 .436 .753
That Billy Bean guy might know a thing or two. He got two years of CY for Pennington 20 million. Thats a lot better deal than being locked into either one of these guys for 5 years.
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