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1. DarrenThe Rays should have re-signed him for that.
Depends on how much you value defensive WAR. Bourn garners half of his WAR value from defense. Upton's a clear downgrade there, and he's a clear downgrade for OBP. But on the other hand, he's 2 years younger and can actually hit the ball past an outfielder on occasion. All told, OPS+ suggests they're basically a wash. As long as the Braves don't put him at leadoff (and there's no reason to suggest they will) this is a better signing than Bourn, just due to age. (I also shy away from Bourn as he ages because his value is all in his legs, and legs get old fast.)
Really? This is the guy you regret not being able to snag? Edit: if the Mets were on the verge of being good, this would be a worthwhile signing, just on the gamble that Upton takes a step forward.
Without looking it up, he seems to have morphed into Mike Cameron without the highlight-reel glove.
Prado (3B)
Swisher (LF)
Heyward (RF)
Freeman (1B)
Uggla (2B)
McCann (C)
Upton (CF)
Simmons (SS)
Not a bad lineup.
I'd rather have Upton for Span, he's a better hitter and he's younger, especially when he costs nothing to get. Cain, meh.
Uggla for Soriano. You know you want it Cubs fans.
You think their big free agent signing will hit 7th?
No, I think their big free agent signing will hit second or third, depending on whether or not Andrelton Simmons' bat plays the same next year as it did in his rookie season. I simply think Swisher is the bigger free agent 'get' than Upton.
I also think Upton just as easily bats fifth while Dan Uggla strikes out swinging in the seventh spot.
He said without the highlight reel glove. I think Upton is a pretty decent CF if not the GG caliber that Cameron was at his peak. An average CF glove is still pretty valuable. And Rickey would have been an ok player without the steals too.
During the Years of Pain and Hunger I would occasionally ask the silent gods, "why couldn't you at least make Francoeur a decent glove in CF?!"
Now we have that.
good for upton.
I agree with this. I understand the idea of saying Upton would be a good signing if they were on the verge of being good, which they aren't, but at the same time, it's a lot harder to become good without signing good players. Where are the major league OF coming from in the Mets system?
I cringe now whenever I read the "won't play for the next good _____ team" comment.
They do need to keep CF clear so the Cesar Puello era can someday begin. Kidding.
They could probably get a decent OF prospect if they moved Wright. And they have Flores or Murphy to play 3B.
I guess but then you just traded away your best player and opened up a hole somewhere else. Flores isn't ready now, if he will ever be. If the debate is between spending money or trading away David Wright, I'm going to go with spending the money.
Not that I thought the Mets had any interest in getting Upton, mainly because i don't think they have the money to spend but if they did I wouldn't have a problem with them throwing some cash around to speed up the rebuilding process.
He said without the highlight reel glove. I think Upton is a pretty decent CF if not the GG caliber that Cameron was at his peak. An average CF glove is still pretty valuable. And Rickey would have been an ok player without the steals too.
Rickey without the steals is still a HOF-worthy player. 13,000+ plate appearances with an OBP-heavy 127 OPS+. That's like Eddie Murray but better.
Remember, if you split him into two, there were 2 HOF players left.
Mets with normal finances would have been all over Upton, assuming they had this crap outfield to begin with, next coming of Mays though he ain't. Though he certainly looked like maybe he was when he was 22. Shoot, wouldn't it be great marketing to have BOTH Uptons?
Nope, not anymore... at this point, the thought of a straight up bad contract dump doesn't make any sense for the Cubs. Yes - 35 mil ain't chump change, but Soriano's just got this coming season and the next left and there are no other millstone contracts on the roster.
Absolutely, I'd still deal Fonsie... but I'd want something like a lottery ticket back, not another bad contract with more time left. Just to be clear - also absolutely, I don't expect anyone to trade anything of value for Soriano... but at this point, that's the price.
Either someone is desperate enough to do something foolish, or, he plays LF next year and depending on how that goes - finishes the contract as a Cub, regardless of whether the end of that contract comes with a 2014 DFA or him actually finishing the season.
Apparently the other one was an AMAZING pinch runner since Rickey #1 got all the at bats.
That's okay. You'll always have the Jets!
I was rooting for them to sign Upton to play QB.
More mobile than Sanchez. More accuracy than Tebow.
The only thing I expect the Nationals to add during the offseason is another starter (to replace Edwin Jackson) and a pair of relievers.
He looked like he cratered in '08 and has been putting up a rough .750 OPS with decent, not great, CF defense (I think he looks a bit better than UZR says, but not by much) for that last 3 years. This is a $75M player?
I think this sums up what backlash I've seen in response to this deal. I had one guy say that if he was spending "Chipper Jones money" he expected Chipper Jones production. I had to remind him that a healthy Chipper Jones would be making Albert Pujols money, not a meager $15mil per year.
And thus the dominoes of my expected-to-be-lousy FA predictions fall.
Has Kuroda officially signed yet? That would give me one. I know, everybody got that one but at least it's one.
I doubt they'll sign a high profile starter either; just a cromulent 4th or 5th starter.
Do you think they will let Burnett find another home; or will they resign him after he doesn't get the kind of money he thinks he will get from other teams?
Thanks for the memories BJ, you were one of the most important players on the 2008-12 successful Rays teams and to hell with the idiots that never recognized that.
So he was worth two dead halves of a person AND two HOF players?
That line from last year looks like a 'walk year, trade some walks for homers' effort. Career highs in HR and strikeouts, career low in walks.
Upton, B (CF)
Prado (3B)
Upton, J (LF)
Heyward (RF)
Freeman (1B)
McCann (C)
Uggla (2B)
Pennington (SS)
I'd really prefer to see the Nats avoid Bourn. Of the big free agents, I'm most interested in Swisher for the Nats
I know BJ is younger, but do Braves fans think Upton at $14M per year is great, but Uggla at $13M per year is terrible? They don't look much alike, but the two are similar players -- average or below at a premier defensive position while providing low batting average TTO-based offense, and of course similar surnames.
It won't be a surprise if Upton 2013 puts up just the kind of numbers Uggla has been posting.
Upton's 26 year old season was 2011. He's put up +3 WAR seasons in his 26 and 27 year old seasons. The Braves are banking on him putting up similar average seasons through his 32 year old season, with hopefully a spike to +5 in there as well.
The problem with Uggla wasn't the last two years. The problem with Uggla's contract is that he's locked in for his 33 and 34 year old season as well.
Then you'd oppose a Swisher contract, right?
I wonder... what would it cost the Braves?
You'd have to figure Teheran... but given his muddling last year, more, too - right? The Braves would seem to have that - Teheran + Delgado is probably too much... but maybe Teheran + Bethancourt + one of the lesser arms (Spruill maybe)? Maybe a few spare parts... Lipka? Pastornicky?
That would seem to be a perfectly good trade for both teams (working off the assumption that AZ inexplicably feels they MUST move Upton) - Teheran is still a top notch prospect, but the Braves would still have Delgado and the rotation is hardly thin. McCann scuffled a fair bit last year, but he's still under 30 so I don't think he's going Ozzie Virgil just yet...
Mark Bowman last night...
Yeesh... Simmons really had a nice burst onto the scene before getting hurt, but that just seemed so far over his head compared to minor league numbers and most scouting projections, I think I'd almost be giddy to do that if I were the Braves... and I say this as someone that had Simmons as a minor league roto keeper and plan to carry him over in 2013 as a keeper in the hopes that he proves me wrong. He just looks like Walt Weiss to me - which is certainly valuable, but not what I'd want out of dealing Justin Upton.
Uggla isn't hated because he makes $13M, he's hated because he bumped a fan favorite out of his position for no good reason and then proceded to hit .225 with embarrassingly bad defense.
For the record, this is anathema to most Braves fans, who see Simmons as one of the most valuable properties in baseball. His defense really is spectacular, so if he can hit at all he's a real asset for a team, especially in the cost controlled years. (Granted, many Braves fans may be gunshy about dealing away Simmons because they still feel the burn from the haul they lost for Mark Teixeira.)
And because the expectations from most Braves fans were too high. They thought they were getting a middle of the order masher. They got Dan Uggla. To his defense, Uggla's defense at 2B hasn't been that much worse than Prado's before him. Prado is far more valuable defensively as a +LF or a +3B than as a -2B.
I will say this. The fact that Uggla is a short little ###### who couldn't stretch to make a simple catch on a high throw from 3B may be reason enough to kill him.
It really comes down to a misunderstanding of the importance of batting average. So Upton may be seen in the same light.
I disagree. Last year he was hitting home runs, but nothing else. This year he wasn't hitting at all, only drawing walks. They already had a .750 OPS/103 OPS+ 2B in Prado. Actually, Prado is better than that. Uggla hasn't produced enough to justify choosing to add him over keeping Prado at 2B and getting a real LF. And in hindsight (which rightly or wrongly matters in terms of fan perception) Omar Infante would have been nice to have around this year.
And while I agree that Uggla is not a particularly good signing by Wren given that a perfomance decline was predictable, it seems like a majority of free agent signings nowadays are an overpay on the back end. I guess that makes the Upton deal better than many.
That's not the reaction that I saw, but YMMV.
At $14M? No. Curtis Granderson makes more and I stopped looking after seeing his salary.
Matt Kemp
Carlos Beltran got 7/$119 from the Mets, which is more years at a higher average salary.
Just to pile on: Barry Bonds, Vernon Wells, Carl Crawford, Alfosno Soriano, & Torii Hunter.
People think of him to as some un-tradeable monster asset, but that thinking might be a little outdated (this is also true to a lesser extent for King Felix).
Player WAR/pos OPS+ Rfield G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPSChris Young 11.7 103 45 413 1686 1476 219 359 95 3 61 203 190 363 8 17 58 19 .243 .331 .436 .766
B.J. Upton 6.4 110 -30 453 1883 1669 250 404 94 11 69 221 183 494 7 42 109 27 .242 .317 .436 .753
That Billy Bean guy might know a thing or two. He got two years of CY for Pennington 20 million. Thats a lot better deal than being locked into either one of these guys for 5 years.
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