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Monday, October 15, 2007

Bleacher Report: Hang Joe Torre?: The Sabermetrician’s Argument

Idiot Savaard…The Man They Could Not Hang!

Many sabermetricians believe the playoffs to be a crapshoot. I don’t entirely agree with that assessment. The data shows that the best team in the playoffs has the best chance of going all the way—but being the best team in the postseason doesn’t automatically get you a ring.

...In the earliest days of the statistical analysis of baseball, Earnshaw Cook did basic regressions of various stats to determine which ones were most correlated to winning. ERA was one of the most prominent, with a correlation of .75. Whenever you hear someone say “75 percent of baseball is pitching,” they’re talking about Cook’s findings.

The Yankees’ weakness isn’t their manager—it’s their dependency on run-production over run-prevention. The club’s focus in the next few years should be on recruiting, developing, and buying great pitching to complement their great offense. Scapegoating Joe Torre won’t fix the problem, and gambling on a different manager avoids the real issue.

The calculators have spoken: Pitching is king.

Repoz Posted: October 15, 2007 at 03:22 PM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: yankees

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1. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: October 15, 2007 at 03:41 PM (#2577064)

The calculators have spoken: Pitching is king.

shows you how stupid I am--I would've thought it'd be much more complicated

2. Bob Dernier Cri

Posted: October 15, 2007 at 03:48 PM (#2577073)

Repoz, man, you are on a mission these days to make the world dumber :-D

3. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: October 15, 2007 at 03:51 PM (#2577079)

to save youse guys some time--I perused the rest of this blogsite and the other articles are also mind-numbingly mindless

4. aleskel

Posted: October 15, 2007 at 03:52 PM (#2577085)

well, even if you disagree with the reasoning, the overall conclusion is pretty close to the mark. The Yankees pitching (and, to a lesser extent, defense) has been mediocre-to-poor for the last few years. Then again, everyone knows this already.

5. Roy Hobbs of WIFFLE Ball Posted: October 15, 2007 at 04:11 PM (#2577101)

The calculators have spoken: Pitching is king.

Tell that to the Braves.

6. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 15, 2007 at 04:52 PM (#2577153)

I just read somewhere that for the past 12+ years (might've been more, I forget, but it's at least a dozen), taking into account all of MLB's postseason rounds, the team with the worse seasonal record has beaten the team with the better seasonal record more than half the time. Was it ever thus?

7. Kyle S Posted: October 15, 2007 at 05:00 PM (#2577166)

I bet RS and RA would have been even more correlated. Wow.

Does it bother anyone else when someone puts on the hat of "Sabermetrician" and then makes a complete fool of themselves? That kills me.

8. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: October 15, 2007 at 05:16 PM (#2577187)

ERA was one of the most prominent, with a correlation of .75. Whenever you hear someone say “75 percent of baseball is pitching,” they’re talking about Cook’s findings.

OW MY BRAIN OW

9. rfloh Posted: October 15, 2007 at 05:16 PM (#2577188)

From the resident "Sabermetrician's" MVP article:

Offensively, there's only about a 10-run difference between Magglio and A-Rod. The difference in fielding ability and the fact that Magglio played a more important defensive position led me to cast my vote for Ordonez.

More gems:

In the end, I decided to go with Cabrera because he didn’t play on a team that folded under pressure like a piece of wet toilet paper.

More objectively, Cabrera also had the edge over Wright in GPA, WPA, RC/27, and RC...while Wright only lead in VORP and defense.

10. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 15, 2007 at 05:19 PM (#2577193)

...In the earliest days of the statistical analysis of baseball, Earnshaw Cook did basic regressions of various stats to determine which ones were most correlated to winning. ERA was one of the most prominent, with a correlation of .75. Whenever you hear someone say “75 percent of baseball is pitching,” they’re talking about Cook’s findings.

I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure Cook never said that pitching was 75% of the game.

11. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 15, 2007 at 05:25 PM (#2577198)

Does it bother anyone else when someone puts on the hat of "Sabermetrician" and then makes a complete fool of themselves? That kills me.

They should take his calculators away from him!

12. Raleigh Horn Posted: October 15, 2007 at 05:26 PM (#2577199)

I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure Cook never said that pitching was 75% of the game.

Didn't he say that right after he said that Runs Scored was 68% of the game? And OBP was 62% of the game? And GIDP was 43% of the game and Sac Bunts was -13% of the game?

ps. All these stats were made up and no mathematicians were hurt in the making of this post.

13. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 15, 2007 at 05:30 PM (#2577206)

ps. All these stats were made up and no mathematicians were hurt in the making of this post.

Heh. Ain't that the truth.

14. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: October 15, 2007 at 05:36 PM (#2577212)

no mathematicians were hurt in the making of this post.

I once almost poked my eye out getting my slide rule out of my spreadsheet

15. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 15, 2007 at 05:44 PM (#2577223)

I once almost poked my eye out getting my slide rule out of my spreadsheet

That's what happens when you're not watching the game instead.

16. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: October 15, 2007 at 05:47 PM (#2577226)

I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure Cook never said that pitching was 75% of the game.

He meant Dane Cook. Which makes a lot more sense.

17. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 15, 2007 at 05:54 PM (#2577235)

Eyes...burning...too...much...misuse...math...help...baby...Jesus

18. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: October 15, 2007 at 06:02 PM (#2577244)

I prefer to call on Zombie Jesus, myself.

19. willcarrolldoesnotsuk Posted: October 15, 2007 at 06:48 PM (#2577290)

Earnshaw Cook did basic regressions of various stats to determine which ones were most correlated to winning. ERA was one of the most prominent, with a correlation of .75. Whenever you hear someone say "75 percent of baseball is pitching," they’re <strike>talking about Cook’s findings.</strike> misinterpreting what "correlation" means.

20. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: October 15, 2007 at 07:02 PM (#2577310)

I thought that Connie Mack was the one who originated the 75% quote. As for Cook, a nearby library used to have his book, but they must've sold it off a few years ago. I see that book on sale at SABR conventions and it costs some serious coin.

21. thedad01 Posted: October 15, 2007 at 08:14 PM (#2577424)

I thought that Connie Mack was the one who originated the 75% quote.

If you put "pitching is 75%" into a google search you'll find it apparently has many fathers. Seems to depend upon who the writer heard say it. The oldest elucidator appears to be Mack.

22. The Bones McCoy of THT Posted: October 15, 2007 at 08:51 PM (#2577472)

Does it bother anyone else when someone puts on the hat of "Sabermetrician" and then makes a complete fool of themselves? That kills me.

And I'll kill again!

Best Regards

John

23. Francoeur Sans Gages (AlouGoodbye) Posted: October 15, 2007 at 09:01 PM (#2577480)

I like to picture Jesus in a tuxedo T-shirt, because it says I want to be formal, but I'm here to party.

24. The Gurus DO NOT BourbonSamurai Posted: October 15, 2007 at 09:37 PM (#2577508)

Eyes...burning...too...much...misuse...math...help...baby...Jesus

Try Oprah Winfrey. Or Tom Cruise.

25. Repoz

Posted: October 15, 2007 at 10:20 PM (#2577543)

I like to picture Jesus in a tuxedo T-shirt

So Menendez does have a casual Hall of Very Good induction gala.

26. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 15, 2007 at 11:37 PM (#2577672)

So Menendez does have a casual Hall of Very Good induction gala.

Yes!!! Morris for the HOF!!

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Bleacher Report: Hang Joe Torre?: The Sabermetrician’s Argument

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