Selective endpoints and all, but Pujols' slump extended into early May. Since the 12th or so, he has a ~1000 OPS with seven homers in under three weeks.

I thought he was finished. I do look silly now.

My read was/is that he's no longer the player he was at his peak, which is not all that surprising.

I still expect him to be good. But stretches like the one he just went through are going to come more often. (Not that I expect his bad stretches to be quite as bad or quite as long, generally.)

I don't buy the "new city, new league" argument, but just watching games, he did look to be trying WAY too hard. A guy may lose bat speed over time, but his plate discipline really tanked, which is unusual. It's not like he hasn't made a lot of money before, so I don't think it was the money, but I think it was the pressure of being THE guy on a team with which he had no track record. And once he got off to a bad start and began to press, it kind of spiraled out of control. Once hits started falling in, and the ball started going out of the ballpark, he settled down.

Another thing I'll just throw out there is that Mike Trout started hitting like an all-star on May 5th. He's at 333/390/591 since that date. Pujols was given a rest on May 5th. At that point, from a hitting standpoint, Trout and his prospect hype became the only reason to pay attention to the Angels. Maybe that took some pressure off of Pujols, who is 287/333/564 since. Not great, but not April.

Of course, it also hasn't hurt that since May 5th, Mark Trumbo is hitting 374/424/681.

A guy may lose bat speed over time, but his plate discipline really tanked, which is unusual.

Somebody else pointed this out, but his plate discipline (depending on how exactly you mean that term) tanked the second half of last season (in the same city, same league). In 2011, he drew 31 unintentional walks in 342 PAs in the 1st half, and 15 uiBB in 309 PAs the 2nd half. His power has come back in May, but his walk rate hasn't (5-in-98 in April, 6-in-118 in May). Small sample sizes all, of course.

You know who is having a better May? Alfonso Soriano. .300/.351/.611 in May.

Alfonso Soriano

Soriano's career is pretty fantastic for a guy who took a lot of heat over his career. Dude will probably have 350 HR and over 1000 RBI by the end of this season. That's a pretty nice career for a 2B/LF who got trashed a lot by fans and media alike.

Shredder noticed something about Pujols that I noticed last year. He started, last year, swinging at low pitches that he used to avoid. The result was a large number of ground balls, reflected in double plays. I've wondered for a year now whether the umpires are lowering the strike zone again, which the often do when wanting to control homers. Does anybody track that stuff? Has the bottom of the strike zone gotten lower? Or has Albert just lost his judgement of the low strike for a while (I assume he will recover)? - Brock

Going by fangraphs pitchf/x data, Albert has swung at 25.5% of balls in his career. Last year 28.4, this year 33.6.

His contact rates on balls and strikes have both been trending downwards.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B

You know who is having a better May? Alfonso Soriano. .300/.351/.611 in May.

On MLB Network last night, they were saying he'd switched to a lighter bat than he's ever used before.

who is this albert pujols everyone is talking about?

who is this albert pujols everyone is talking about?

One of the best ever. Used to play for the Cardinals. Won a couple World Series there. Then he left. People were sad.

Soriano's career is pretty fantastic for a guy who took a lot of heat over his career

Two close comps to Soriano in career offense (at the moment) are Reggie Sanders and Ron Gant. If there were an (oxymoronic) category of "star journeyman," they might all fit it. After some time with their initial club, none of them seemed to be a player that people wanted around for very long, but they could usually turn in a good year on the field (things like Soriano's contract considerations aside), and it's probable that all of them got what they could out of their talent. (Gant may have been headed for higher stardom before his motorcycle injury.)

I don't know if this is the proper thread to do this, but I really, really hate when the Yankees play at Angel Stadium. It's late at night, I'm tired, and whether they're winning or losing in the late innings, I get the same feeling in the pit of my stomach that they're going to find some way to lose.

I kind of think that when the schedule comes out, they'd be better off immediately forfeiting all games at Angel Stadium in favor of days off on those dates.

Does Mark Whiten fit in, Bob?

I don't know that I'd be crowing about Pujols resurgent dominance after a hot streak that brings him all the way back to 0.0 fWAR. No doubt he is better than the April slump and still a good player....but it should be noted that slicing up his hot streak to selective endpoint May 12 leaves you with a line that used to be "average" for him.

Whiten's career was shorter, and except for one game in 1993 :) he was never quite as good as the three I mentioned. But he too had an interesting path of constantly leaving for a new club, doing fine there, and moving on, very Sanders-like. Mike Cameron might be another member of the group, though he was a truly superior CF, and probably could have kept a job as even a lesser hitter than he was. The second half of Kenny Lofton's career ... or, not to just keep comparing guys of color to one another, Dante Bichette or Jeromy Burnitz (though Bichette did stay in Colorado for quite a long time).

Soriano would probably be much better-appreciated if he made considerably less money. Though who (including Pujols now) can one not say that about?

Gary Sheffield?

I didn't think of that - American black (as opposed to Hispanic) players seem to be overrepresented here.

I'd still be worried. On his homerun last night it look to me like he was cheating on the inside fastball. What was amazing about the Old Pujols is how balanced he was. He never cheated and could hit any pitch. I'm not sure that is still true.

it should be noted that slicing up his hot streak to selective endpoint May 12 leaves you with a line that used to be "average" for him.

True, but shouldn't the expectation be that he would play at or around his personal average for any random stretch of time? He didn't play at his own average during April, and started May the same way, but the most level headed observers basically said that he'd eventually get back to "normal," which is what he's doing.

The pitch selection data runs counter to that theory, and I will be interested to see if that normalizes somewhat as the season goes on. Also, the lighter bat might help him catch up to hard-to-reach pitches out of the zone, but it won't change the fact that those pitches are often harder to hit authoritatively.

Pujols looks to me like a guy in a similar place to Ortiz about 3-4 years ago. He is in the process of adapting to no longer be able to just show up and hit (oversimplification). Ortiz went through a stretch where he really cheated and the shift became an issue for him. Age, slightly slower bat, the need to spend more time on conditioning are probably all issues for him now (as they seemed to be for Ortiz) and I have no doubt of his ability and willingness to adapt but it takes some time.

We see it more readily in pitchers when they go from 97-98 to 93-94 and they have to re-learn their craft a bit but it happens in hitters too.

I didn't think of that - American black (as opposed to Hispanic) players seem to be overrepresented here.

I did a quick PI search; 7 franchise played for and at least 30 WAR and while it was a predictably small list 13 of the 18 were African-American or Latino. Small sample issues obviously are part of that and free agency + expansion is going to skew the data toward post-integration but it was interesting.

Sheffield bounced around too, always did well while having the reputation of being a PITA, but he was a bigger star, a true MVP candidate.

shouldn't the expectation be that he would play at or around his personal average for any random stretch of time?

I think that's the thing about Pujols: he has been eerily consistent(ly great). Josh Hamilton, to take a similar talent, will surprise nobody if he mixes in a month hitting .250 this year with the ones where he hits .350 or .400, because he just tends to do that. Pujols hasn't ever done that. He's just gotten human.

Know whats gotten into Soriano? Soriano used to take a tree stump up there. Somethng like a 40 ouncer. Heaviest in the majors. Switched to a lighter bat.

Neither Soriano or Pujols can hold a candle to Melky Cabrera:

.435/.463/.661, with _5_ triples. (I don't know what the record is but Granderson had 6 in each of May & June 2007 and Reyes had 6 & 7 in May & June last year)

Broke Mays' Giants record for most hits in May (he has 50). And there is still a game today.

Dexter Fowler is hitting .327/.444/.673 in May. Just four triples, but he has two games left, both at Coors.

Gary Sheffield?

I didn't think of that - American black (as opposed to Hispanic) players seem to be overrepresented here.

I wouldn't put Sheff in that category, since he was often leaving either because he got tired of a place or they got tired of him. Those other guys, and Sanders in particular, had generally good reputations but were ultimately seen as replacable. Matt Stairs and Steve Finley, guys with fairer complexions, are better comps for Sanders and Gant.

Look at it this way, if Sheff had Sanders' clubhouse reputation, he could have stayed in one place just about as long as he wanted.

Really good players, even great players go in slumps. That's no newsflash.

However, the fact that Pujols .OPS is still under .700 despite being his recent torrid streak just shows you how bad he has been. I would be alarmed by the fact that he only has 13 walks.

We'll see who's looking silly by year four into that contract.

Hideki Matsui, whom we were talking about in another thread today, would also fit in that group pretty well.

We'll see who's looking silly by year four into that contract.

What about this year? What does he need to hit for the rest of this season, starting today, to be worth it this year? Can one of you who is smarter than me (i.e. any of you) estimate that one?

.435/.463/.661, with _5_ triples. (I don't know what the record is but Granderson had 6 in each of May & June 2007 and Reyes had 6 & 7 in May & June last year)

Nomar had 7 in June 2003, and I'm sure many batters hit more back when it routinely took 20+ to contend for black ink. What's noteworthy about Nomar is that he hit all 7 by 6/15, plus one on 5/31, getting 8 in a 14-game stretch for a total of 12 thru game 65. Then he hit exactly one more the entire season.

Sanders in particular, had generally good reputations but were ultimately seen as replacable

Yes. Sanders's career is somewhat amazing. You get the sense that year after year a GM would pat himself on the back saying, "well, we just squeezed the last good year out of Reggie Sanders," and then he'd go out and have the same year again for some other GM.

I would be alarmed by the fact that he only has 13 walks.

When he signed, given how limited the rest of the Angels offense is, I would have bet anything that 2 months into the season he'd have at least 13 intentional walks.

Here are the number of times per year that Pujols has had a month with an OPS below .900:

2001: 1 (.793 in July)
2002: 1 (.804 in May)
2003: 0
2004: 0
2005: 0
2006: 1 (.715 in June, limited by injury to 10 games)
2007: 1 (.832 in April)
2008: 0
2009: 0
2010: 1 (.848 in August)
2011: 2 (.758 in April, .752 in May)
2012: 2 (.570 in April, .788 in May)

So still, even with his resurgence, Pujols' May is worse than any other month during the first 10 years of his career (excluding his 10-game June 2006) and his worst 4 single months have come during the last 8 months of play.

(edited for clarity)

We'll see who's looking silly by year four into that contract.

I guess that depends on how we're grading the contract. If the grade is based solely on Pujols' production, I can't imagine that it'll be a good grade. On the other hand, even if Pujols is merely (for him) a 140 OPS+ guy, he's a substantial upgrade from that bat he's replacing in the lineup (Vernon Wells). Mike Trout is a stud. If the Angels have a couple of other guys hitting 110-130 OPS+ regularly (Morales, Trumbo, Kendrick), that's an offense that can compete on a yearly basis, and that's all I ask. Yes, it'll be overpriced, but that ship sailed when they signed Wells.

The real drama is whether the Angels will go 3-3 or 2-3 in every series against the Yankees. I swear, if the Yankees were in the AL West, they'd have missed the playoffs for most of the Aughts.

could it be an eye sight thing with Pujols? I mean BJ and some others have mentioned that he's having trouble with pitches out of the strike zone.

The tranformation of Pujols into a guy who doesn't walk is one of the stranger things I've seen in 40 years of baseball. That's not usually how the aging process works -- the bat slows, the BA drops and either the walks go up and you stick around or the walks don't and you're on your way out. A BA drop and a walk drop -- ugh.

What does he need to hit for the rest of this season, starting today, to be worth it this year

$25 M is somewhere around 4-5 WAR at today's prices. So to reach that he needs to play like a 6-7 WAR player the rest of the year. Pujols 2010 was a 7.3 WAR player so he needs to be that for the rest of this year. Or, at this point last year, he wasn't much better and he finished with 5.1 WAR. From June 1 last year he hit 318/383/613.

"Mike Trout is a stud. If the Angels have a couple of other guys hitting 110-130 OPS+ regularly (Morales, Trumbo, Kendrick), that's an offense that can compete on a yearly basis, and that's all I ask. Yes, it'll be overpriced, but that ship sailed when they signed Wells."

Trout is awesome and the lineup should be improved with his addition, and that of Pujols. But that's really besides the point.
The contract is without a doubt going to be horrible and the question is whether it will be enough of a boondoggle to prevent them from adding important pieces in the coming years.

I'm not saying it will sink the franchise, but it's unmovable. The fact that he is hitting under .700 OPS, 50 games into the first year of a 10-year deal is alarming.

A-Rod's contract is horrendous and his power is sapped at 37. There are five years left on that deal.

True, but shouldn't the expectation be that he would play at or around his personal average for any random stretch of time? He didn't play at his own average during April, and started May the same way, but the most level headed observers basically said that he'd eventually get back to "normal," which is what he's doing.

1/4 of the season has to count for more than just a random stretch... It's 25% of the season he's not getting back, 25% of the season where he wasn't just 'average', he was putrid.

The real drama is whether the Angels will go 3-3 or 2-3 in every series against the Yankees.

The Yankees took two of three from the Angels already in April. Last year they took two series 2-3 and lost one 1-3.

The Yankees took two of three from the Angels already in April. Last year they took two series 2-3 and lost one 1-3.

For over a decade, the Yankees have so seldom lost that one loss feels like two or three.

A-Rod's contract is horrendous and his power is sapped at 37. There are five years left on that deal.

But even with his knee injuries and playing a tougher defensive position, A-Rod still averaged over 130 OPS+ from 32 to 35 (getting worse as he got older). Pujols is a better hitter, historically much healthier, and plays a far less demanding position. I think the reasonable expectation for him is (1) we'll see more slumps as Pujols gets older, and (2) he's still going to to post 140 OPS+ seasons for at least the next couple of years, and (3) given his walk history* and power his decline won't be catastrophic.

I don't think Pujols' contract will be the problem in the short/medium term — that's Vernon Wells' contract ($63 million for 2012-14). Weaver and Wilson are locked up until 2016, Kendrick's contract goes to 2015, Aybar's until 2016, and Trumbo, Trout, Bourgos, Walden are all under team control for a while yet. Torii Hunter's $18 million comes off the books after this season (after which either Trumbo becomes the LF or Kole Calhoun gets a shot) and Wells' contract will end before Trout, et al, get expensive and Pujols' contract escalates.

2014 is going to be an expensive year for the Angels. Buying a win-now team get expensive, though, and their core is going to let them compete for October games for the next three-five years. Projecting beyond that is just guessing.

shouldn't the expectation be that he would play at or around his personal average for any random stretch of time?

That's exactly what he did last year, after May 29, minus some unintentional walks.

could it be an eye sight thing with Pujols?

I really think it's contributing to the problem. He has flat missed some catchable throws this year.

Stanton is hitting .333/.421/.743 with 11 HRs this month.

Sheffield bounced around too, always did well while having the reputation of being a PITA, but he was a bigger star, a true MVP candidate.

Yeah, Sheff is in the Hornsby/Dick Allen category of truly exceptional players who floated around because they were thought of as insufferable.

Dexter Fowler is hitting .327/.444/.673 in May. Just four triples, but he has two games left, both at Coors.

Game 2 on Monday was the Fowler the Rockies have been dreaming of all these years. Led off the game with a Cargo-style laser into the bullpen in right-center, next time bunted for a hit and went to third on an overthrow, later got another hit, drew a great walk in the 8th by laying off several close pitches, and finally hit a walkoff triple in the 10th. Thrilling to watch.

I thought he was finished. I do look silly now.

Actually, that's just because of the way you dress.

Pujols (202 AB, only 13 BB) isn't the only one whose walk ratio is down considerably this season compared to past performance:

Prince Fielder (last year 569 AB, 107 BB, in fact, 3 straight years over 100 BB) - this year (191 AB, 18 BB - about half his previous walk rates)

Dustin Pedroia - last year 635 AB, 86 BB, this year, 200 AB, 16 BB, down over 40%

Nick Swisher - last year 526 AB, 95 BB, this year 165 AB, 13 BB (down almost 60%)

I'm sure there are others out there as well - has anyone noticed anything happening in the NL? I seem to see it happening a lot more in the AL this year - is this back to the umps calling low strikes?