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Sunday, August 24, 2014

Bochy not ready to announce Lincecum decision

Opening Day thru June 20: 15 GS, 82.7 IP, 4.90 ERA
June 25 (no-hitter) thru July 22: 5 GS, 38 IP, 0.95 ERA
July 25 thru August 23: 6 GS, 24.7 IP, 9.49 ERA

I have no idea what to make of this. (Or, for that matter, of Lincecum’s pic on his B-R page.)

Who will start [for the Giants] Thursday? “TBA.” [Manager Bruce] Bochy has talked to Dave Righetti and Brian Sabean, but he won’t announce anything until after he gets a chance to talk to Tim Lincecum…

[Yusmeiro] Petit is off-limits anyway after throwing 4 1/3 yesterday, and he probably won’t be used tomorrow, either. That means we’ll almost certainly have to wait to see if Petit extends an amazing streak. He has retired 38 consecutive batters, seven short of Mark Buehrle’s MLB record…

If Petit is moved to the rotation, Bochy would slide Juan Gutierrez or Lincecum into the long relief role…

“Timmy really takes it so hard,” Bochy said. “He feels like he let everybody down … he’s taking it extremely hard.”

The District Attorney Posted: August 24, 2014 at 07:16 PM | 62 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: giants, tim lincecum, yusmeiro petit

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   1. Cargo Cultist Posted: August 24, 2014 at 08:01 PM (#4778276)
“Timmy really takes it so hard,” Bochy said. “He feels like he let everybody down … he’s taking it extremely hard.”


And he should, because he has.

Time to hang up the cleats, Timmy.
   2. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: August 24, 2014 at 08:35 PM (#4778293)
Opening Day thru June 20: 15 GS, 82.7 IP, 4.90 ERA
June 25 (no-hitter) thru July 22: 5 GS, 38 IP, 0.95 ERA
July 25 thru August 23: 6 GS, 24.7 IP, 9.49 ERA

I have no idea what to make of this.


I'd say that four starts were in San Fran, San Fran, San Diego, and San Fran--two of them against one of the weakest lineups in baseball history--is pretty much what you need to know.

What's the worst season with a regularish workload a pitcher has ever had despite pitching a no-hitter along the way?
   3. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: August 24, 2014 at 08:42 PM (#4778299)
check edwin jackson's number, and that might be it.
   4. Howie Menckel Posted: August 24, 2014 at 08:54 PM (#4778304)
In 1952 Virgil Trucks - who just died last year - threw TWO no-hitters while going 5-19 with a 3.97 ERA and 95 ERA+.

A year later, he went 20-10. Outside of his double no-hit year, he went 172-116 in his 17-year MLB career.

His May 15 no-no vs Senators was only his 5th start of the season and left him 1-2.

The other came vs Yankees (!) on Aug. 25, with only 1 walk to boot again, and this time he didn't hit two guys. That lifted him to 5-15.

allowed 17 ER in 11.6 IP in his last 3 starts, all losses.
   5. bobm Posted: August 24, 2014 at 09:03 PM (#4778307)
Quality of opponent seems to explain the splits above:

                         
Rk      Date Opp Rslt GSc
1       Apr3 ARI W8-5  47
2       Apr9 ARI L3-7  24
3      Apr15 LAD W3-2  58
4      Apr20 SDP W4-3  50
5      Apr26 CLE W5-3  37
6       May2 ATL W2-1  57
7       May7 PIT L3-4  32
8      May12 ATL W4-2  76
9      May17 MIA L0-5  49
10     May23 MIN W6-2  52
11     May28 CHC W5-0  68
12      Jun3 CIN L3-8  19
13      Jun8 NYM W6-4  53
14     Jun13 COL L4-7  62
15     Jun20 ARI L1-4  42

16     Jun25 SDP W4-0  92
17      Jul1 STL W5-0  78
18      Jul6 SDP W5-3  65
19     Jul11 ARI W5-0  75
20     Jul20 MIA L2-3  60
21     Jul22 PHI W9-6

22     Jul25 LAD L1-8  27
23     Jul30 PIT W7-5  29
24      Aug5 MIL L3-4  53
25     Aug10 KCR L4-7  21
26     Aug17 PHI W5-2  43
27     Aug23 WSN L2-6  24                        
   6. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: August 24, 2014 at 09:54 PM (#4778332)
What's the worst season with a regularish workload a pitcher has ever had despite pitching a no-hitter along the way?


I don't know if it was regularish enough, given the White Sox eventually yanked him from the rotation, but Phil Humber went 5-5 with a 6.44 ERA in 16 starts (102 IP total, some from the pen), in his perfect-game season.

   7. Sweatpants Posted: August 24, 2014 at 10:32 PM (#4778345)
Jose Jimenez had a 5.85 ERA (79 ERA+) in 163 innings in 1999. He somewhat famously went 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 18 IP when pitted against Randy Johnson, and 3-14 with a 6.59 ERA and 145 IP over the rest of his starts. Both of those shutouts (one of which was the no-hitter) were 1-0 games, too.
   8. Moeball Posted: August 25, 2014 at 08:51 AM (#4778398)
Gee, you mean some pitchers own the Padres and make our hitters look terrible?

I'm shocked.

How long is the list?

Not enough space to print...
   9. BDC Posted: August 25, 2014 at 09:32 AM (#4778416)
In September of 1986, Joe Cowley, who'd been in the White Sox rotation all year (10-9, 4.08 at that point in a 4.18 league), threw a no-hitter against the Angels in which he walked seven and gave up one run.

For the entire remainder of his major-league career, he made seven starts, going 0-6 with an ERA of 7.31. He got demoted to AAA and went 3-9 there with an ERA of 7.86, and that was the end of the line.
   10. Random Transaction Generator Posted: August 25, 2014 at 09:41 AM (#4778429)
Edit: Never mind, #6 covered it. That's what I get for skimming the page.
   11. Ginger Nut Posted: August 25, 2014 at 10:31 AM (#4778473)
Lincecum did pitch well in relief in the playoffs in 2012. His hurt feelings aside, I wonder if he could be valuable to the team as a relief pitcher. Problem is he always seems to blow up in the first inning (this is just my subjective impression). Anyway, it would be interesting if he could make an Eckersley type career shift and become a good (if not Eck-good) relief pitcher and extend his career that way. Eck started 32 games in 1986 with an 88 ERA+, 6.1 K/9, and a league-leading 1.9 BB/9 IP. The next year he switched to closing for the A's with a 137 ERA+, much higher 8.8 K/9 and only 1.3 BB/9. The thing about Lincecum is he still seems to have good stuff--he still strikes out 8.1/9 this year but he also gives up 3.8 BB/9. With the amount of money the team has invested in him, there's a lot of incentive to try to find a way to make use of the stuff that's reflected in the strikeout rate. Lincecum's much higher walk rate makes it hard to imagine how he could follow in Eck's footsteps, but he also has a much higher K/9 than Eck did as a starter. There's no way to know how he would do harnessing his stuff for just 1-2 innings except to try it.

   12. Ray (RDP) Posted: August 25, 2014 at 10:33 AM (#4778474)
To me what's interesting about Lincecum is not the in-season splits or the no-hitter out of the blue (is there any other kind?) but is the career progression. He went from ace to good to bad in quick succession. His Ks came down, his BBs and hits and HRs up, and it resulted in an ERA+ that is bad. Two things about this to note:

1. Since league walks are down and Ks are up, his trends in these areas are even more stark than they appear from the raw rates.

2. And still, his peripherals aren't terrible. They seem fairly league average. And yet they produce a very bad ERA+. I can't really explain it. Haven't looked at his FIP numbers but I presume they are better than his ERA+.

Was he hurt somewhere along the way? I don't recall. I realize pitchers moreso than hitters have odd career paths but how many other recent-era pitchers have gone from excellent to bad like this? He had 1,028 innings of a 137 ERA+ (ages 23-27; his rates for H, HR, BB, and K were 7.4, 0.6, 3.3, 9.9) and since then has 529 IP of a 74 ERA+ (ages 28-30; 8.7, 1.0, 3.8, 8.7). You can see that all of his rate stats trended in the wrong direction and yet still, as I noted above, do not seem to match his ERA+. Has he been particularly bad with men on base?
   13. Flynn Posted: August 25, 2014 at 10:38 AM (#4778481)
His declining fastball, more loopy secondary stuff and first inning troubles certainly reminds me of another small, dominant pitcher that Ray should be very familiar with. I really wouldn't be surprised if Lincecum has a shoulder problem.
   14. Ray (RDP) Posted: August 25, 2014 at 10:40 AM (#4778484)
There's no way to know how he would do harnessing his stuff for just 1-2 innings except to try it.


Right; it seems to me that this is the perfect case to push a starter into the bullpen. He still has decent stuff but just can't seem to handle the starting role anymore. You don't want to force a good pitcher into the pen, but with a bad pitcher with decent stuff it's a good gamble. He's below replacement level (-3 WAR) over his last three years and 500+ innings. You almost have nothing to lose. It's defensible to try to turn him back into a useful starter and you want to give him some time, but it's been a while now.
   15. Ray (RDP) Posted: August 25, 2014 at 10:44 AM (#4778486)
His declining fastball, more loopy secondary stuff and first inning troubles certainly reminds me of another small, dominant pitcher that Ray should be very familiar with. I really wouldn't be surprised if Lincecum has a shoulder problem.


But Pedro at the end was giving up a ton of hits and HR despite maintaining the decent K/BB ratio. That is a not unusual profile for a power pitcher at the end of the line (off the top of my head I believe, e.g., Smoltz, Oswalt, and Halladay saw this happen as well - I haven't looked but I can't think of an old-ish pitcher who came back from that). The thing is that that's not Lincecum, who hasn't seen his hits and HR rates soar to unsustainable heights.

(But yes, an injury is never out of the question.)
   16. Ray (RDP) Posted: August 25, 2014 at 10:49 AM (#4778491)
I haven't looked but I can't think of an old-ish pitcher who came back from that


I note: CC Sabathia will be the next one to try.

(Kevin Brown is another who went out that way.)
   17. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: August 25, 2014 at 10:49 AM (#4778492)
One problem with Lincecum is that he's horrible at all of the little things of pitching. Taking Bill James's "self-destructive acts" (HBP, WP, Errors, Balks) and adding SB - CS and pickoffs, Lincecum has committed 2.1 self-destructive acts per nine innings over the past three years. That's somewhere between .3-.7 R/9.

On the other end, Mark Buehrle has committed .04 self-destructive acts per nine innings, or about one per season.
   18. tolbuck Posted: August 25, 2014 at 11:03 AM (#4778509)
When Lincecum was great he was great in the early innings. The past 3 years he has been awful in the first inning, and he isn't much better in either the 2nd or the 3rd depending on the year. He is pitching from behind a lot, and I wonder if he is putting pressure on himself to make the perfect pitch. It might also explain the point #17 made.

The problem may be between Lincecum's ears.
   19. Spahn Insane Posted: August 25, 2014 at 11:11 AM (#4778519)
Lincecum has committed 2.1 self-destructive acts per nine innings over the past three years. That's somewhere between .3-.7 R/9.

On the other end, Mark Buehrle has committed .04 self-destructive acts per nine innings, or about one per season.

That's a pretty amazing stat, for both pitchers.
   20. Spahn Insane Posted: August 25, 2014 at 11:12 AM (#4778521)
When Lincecum was great he was great in the early innings. The past 3 years he has been awful in the first inning, and he isn't much better in either the 2nd or the 3rd depending on the year. He is pitching from behind a lot, and I wonder if he is putting pressure on himself to make the perfect pitch.

And if all that is true, it might explain any reluctance on the Giants' part to try him in the bullpen. Quite the conundrum.
   21. Ray (RDP) Posted: August 25, 2014 at 11:15 AM (#4778524)
#17 is an interesting observation but I'm not sure it explains much. What was his "self-destructive acts per nine innings" rate for his first six years? He's never really been all that good at these things, and in any event a mild decrease in them wouldn't explain going from a 137 ERA+ to a 74 ERA+. I mean, for one thing, errors aren't even factored in to ERA+ and yet his ERA+ has still dropped like a stone. I imagine they're factored into WAR, but, then, a collapse in WAR from 4-7 to below 0 can't really be caused by this either.
   22. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: August 25, 2014 at 11:34 AM (#4778539)
I wasn't suggesting it was an explanation for Lincecum's decline, but just one facet of his game that makes it difficult for him.

Looking at his career until 2012, Lincecum committed 1.38 self-destructive acts per nine innings.

EDIT: This trend probably explains between 10-20% of his rise in RA/9.
   23. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: August 25, 2014 at 11:38 AM (#4778542)
Last night I was looking at SD/9 and ERA-FIP differential. Correlation is about -0.3.
   24. Mefisto Posted: August 25, 2014 at 11:44 AM (#4778547)
Lincecum doesn't seem to have much control over where the ball is going. He has decent stuff, still, which accounts for the relatively solid peripherals. But when he misses his target, the batter hammers the ball.

It may be that this was always true, but higher velocity made up for it. It's a real puzzle.
   25. SoCalDemon Posted: August 25, 2014 at 12:17 PM (#4778572)
Lincecum has a 4.64 ERA, after having a 4.76 ERA over the previous 2 years. I fail to see any mystery here. I think people really want the TIMMY of 2008 to come back, but he's just not a good pitcher any more. Jose Lima in 2005 went 5-16 with a 6.99 ERA, and had games of 7.2 IP with 1 ER, 8 and 1, 6 and 1, and 9 and 1. Just from random variation, even terrible pitchers will have some good game lines.
   26. alilisd Posted: August 25, 2014 at 02:18 PM (#4778717)
I wasn't suggesting it was an explanation for Lincecum's decline, but just one facet of his game that makes it difficult for him.


Sure, but it's an excellent point regarding why he has little margin for error/decline. Those problems could be covered up by great stuff, but as the stuff has become mediocre, his "self-destructive acts" are more evident and exacerbate the lack of stuff.
   27. Ginger Nut Posted: August 25, 2014 at 02:48 PM (#4778743)
The mystery is that over those three years he's had a 4.73 ERA (=73 ERA+), but a 4.02 FIP, which, while not great, is significantly better than his ERA+. Over those three seasons he also has an 8.9 K/9, which is part of what makes people think he should still be able to be good if he could just get it together somehow.

Jose Lima in 2005 had a 5.71 FIP and 4.3 K/9, so Lima Time < Timmy Time, even latter-day Timmy Time. I realize that was not exactly your point, that Timmy is as horrible as Lima was, but the point is Timmy can still strike a lot of guys out, which is mainly what makes people hopeful, I think, not just the odd game where he doesn't get bombed.

BTW, now I notice on BB ref that one of Lincecum's nicknames is supposed to be "Big Time Timmy Jim"--is that true? Have never heard of him being called that. I don't live in the bay area though.
   28. JJ1986 Posted: August 25, 2014 at 02:53 PM (#4778747)
BTW, now I notice on BB ref that one of Lincecum's nicknames is supposed to be "Big Time Timmy Jim"--is that true? Have never heard of him being called that. I don't live in the bay area though.


It's a joke from a Sportscenter commercial.
   29. Ginger Nut Posted: August 25, 2014 at 03:01 PM (#4778752)
Oh okay, I'm one of those weirdos who moved to another country where we don't get ESPN.
   30. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 25, 2014 at 03:05 PM (#4778756)
country where we don't get ESPN.

Is it called utopia?
   31. Ray (RDP) Posted: August 25, 2014 at 03:10 PM (#4778760)
Primey.
   32. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: August 25, 2014 at 04:04 PM (#4778823)
Lincecum has committed 2.1 self-destructive acts per nine innings over the past three years. That's somewhere between .3-.7 R/9.

On the other end, Mark Buehrle has committed .04 self-destructive acts per nine innings, or about one per season.

That's a pretty amazing stat, for both pitchers.


Buehrle has always been good, but this year he's been phenomenal. 2 HBP, 1 BK, 2 WP, 1 error, 0 SB, 3 CS, 4 PO. If the last 2 positive acts are used to balance out the negative acts, he's got -1 self destructive acts all year.

Timmy has 35 in 16 fewer innings.
   33. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: August 25, 2014 at 04:10 PM (#4778829)
OK, I couldn't believe Buehrle has been that good for his career, but he has. This year is just slightly better than average (for him). For his career:

27 WP
19 BK
70 HBP
58 SB
79 CS
97 PO

That's a net of +14 in over 3,000 career IP. I'd elect him to the HOF based on that alone.
   34. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: August 25, 2014 at 04:17 PM (#4778836)
Out of the top 100 active pitchers in innings pitched, Buehrle's SD/9 rate leads second place Clayton Kershaw by a factor of seven:

Buehrle: 0.04
Kershaw: 0.29

Kershaw
52 WP
10 BK
21 HBP
49 SB
46 CS
47 PO

Net: +39
IP: 1333.1
   35. theboyqueen Posted: August 25, 2014 at 04:20 PM (#4778841)
0 SB, 3 CS, 4 PO


Wow.
   36. theboyqueen Posted: August 25, 2014 at 04:21 PM (#4778843)
58 SB
79 CS
97 PO


Double wow.
   37. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: August 25, 2014 at 04:23 PM (#4778845)
Another piece of trivia I came across while doing this:

Apparently, Bob Gibson never picked off a baserunner in his entire career.
   38. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: August 25, 2014 at 04:27 PM (#4778857)
They were too afraid to run; surely he would've just rared back & aimed at their heads.
   39. Danny Posted: August 25, 2014 at 04:30 PM (#4778862)
Adding pickoffs to CS is double counting, especially for Buehrle. If you pick off a runner at 1B and he tries to go to 2B instead of going back to 1B, it counts as both a pickoff and a caught stealing. Most of Buehrle's pickoffs lead to CS.

For example, all three of Buehrle's CS this year are from pickoffs. Which means that no one has actually attempted a SB off him all year.
   40. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: August 25, 2014 at 04:33 PM (#4778866)
Oh, I thought they were separated out.
   41. Batman Posted: August 25, 2014 at 04:59 PM (#4778913)
Baserunners are 0 for 8 trying to steal against Hisashi Iwakuma this year.
   42. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: August 25, 2014 at 05:19 PM (#4778942)
Adding pickoffs to CS is double counting, especially for Buehrle. If you pick off a runner at 1B and he tries to go to 2B instead of going back to 1B, it counts as both a pickoff and a caught stealing. Most of Buehrle's pickoffs lead to CS.

For example, all three of Buehrle's CS this year are from pickoffs. Which means that no one has actually attempted a SB off him all year.


OK, I did not know that. Makes sense I suppose, but it would be nice to know which PO's were merely PO's, and which CS were true CS. Does the flip side count as well? Does a PO where the runner goes and is safe still count as a PO?
   43. Danny Posted: August 25, 2014 at 06:02 PM (#4778968)
Heh.
44. Danny Posted: January 08, 2011 at 07:25 PM (#3726474)

Most of Buehrle's pickoffs are being double counted as CS. If the runner breaks for second after being picked off first, it counts as both a pickoff and a CS.

Also, no one's been harder to run on in the past few years than Dallas Braden.

46. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: January 08, 2011 at 07:57 PM (#3726490)
If the runner breaks for second after being picked off first, it counts as both a pickoff and a CS.

I did not know that. What if the runner breaks and is safe. Is that still counted as a PO?

And is it really most? It seems to me that a small minority of POs result in a SB attempt.
   44. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: August 25, 2014 at 06:12 PM (#4778969)
Hey, you can't expect me to remember something I wrote 3 years ago.
   45. tshipman Posted: August 25, 2014 at 06:16 PM (#4778970)
For example, all three of Buehrle's CS this year are from pickoffs. Which means that no one has actually attempted a SB off him all year.


Jesus, maybe they should just stand on the bag at this point.
   46. greenback calls it soccer Posted: August 25, 2014 at 06:41 PM (#4778972)
Jesus, maybe they should just stand on the bag at this point.

Kolten Wong could still get picked off.
   47. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: August 25, 2014 at 06:54 PM (#4778979)
I'm trying to find POs separated out from CS and can't seem to find anything on BB-Ref player pages.
   48. Danny Posted: August 25, 2014 at 07:13 PM (#4778987)
It's in the "Baserunning and Situational Stats" section as "PCS."

For example, for his career, Buehrle has 79 CS, 97 PO, and 55 PCS. That means 55 of his 79 CS (70%) are from pickoffs.
   49. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: August 25, 2014 at 07:24 PM (#4778991)
Thanks!
   50. Howie Menckel Posted: August 25, 2014 at 08:22 PM (#4779013)

Heyman tweet

not to re-start controversy, but interesting lincecum has 3.20 era throwing to sanchez, 7.71 to posey and 8..85 to susac

...........

Sanchez has a long concussion issue, not sure if he will or shoud return this year
   51. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: August 25, 2014 at 08:38 PM (#4779021)
Sanchez and Lincecum are a perfect combination. Lincecum has no idea what he's throwing and Sanchez has no idea what he called.
   52. The District Attorney Posted: August 25, 2014 at 09:00 PM (#4779030)
Yup:
Manager Bruce Bochy announced what had been expected, that he will skip Lincecum’s turn in the rotation against the Rockies and pitch out of the bullpen “when he’s ready,” in other words, when the staff feels the two-time Cy Young winner has done enough work in side sessions to warrant game action.

Yusmeiro Petit will start instead unless he is needed out of the bullpen beforehand, less likely now that the Giants added an eighth reliever with George Kontos’ latest promotion Monday.

Bochy will not say how many starts Lincecum will miss, a decision that could hinge on Petit’s performance against the Rockies and how well Lincecum fares when he is summoned from the bullpen.
I just hope Petit gets the first eight guys out...
   53. PreservedFish Posted: August 25, 2014 at 09:20 PM (#4779037)
Bochy is going to pitch? That seems extreme.
   54. Roger McDowell spit on me! Posted: August 25, 2014 at 09:43 PM (#4779043)
Sanchez has a long concussion issue, not sure if he will or shoud return this year


He's almost certainly out for the year. Went on a rehab assignment and recently suffered another concussion.
   55. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 25, 2014 at 11:07 PM (#4779069)
Jesus, maybe they should just stand on the bag at this point.


But that's the key isn't it? Every baserunner he allows to 1B actually stays closer to the bag. How many times does that runner NOT advance to 3rd on a single to right? Or does NOT score from 1st on a ball in the gap? This guy saves runs in ways most pitchers don't, and that's the ultimate aim of pitching; run prevention.
   56. Ron J2 Posted: August 26, 2014 at 09:22 AM (#4779176)
#9 Was going to bring up Cowley. Not quite Dan Bard level, but check out the line to his final minor league season. A 10.9 BB/9 IP and a hit batter every 4 IP.
   57. Rennie's Tenet Posted: August 26, 2014 at 10:25 AM (#4779214)
What's the worst season with a regularish workload a pitcher has ever had despite pitching a no-hitter along the way?


I guess he fails on the regularish workload requirement, but Bobo Holloman threw a five walk no hitter for the Browns in his first major league start (fifth game) on May 6, 1953. He was released in mid-July after 9 more starts, 3-7, 5.23 ERA, with 50 walks in 65 innings. He never pitched in the majors outside of 1953. Bill Veeck wrote up the story in one of his memoirs.
   58. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: August 26, 2014 at 11:15 AM (#4779249)
Following up on yesterday, I've separated out pickoffs and CS. I treat all non-CS pickoffs as outs, though they can end in errors, etc. That said:

Mark Buehrle has 0.20 self-destructive acts per nine innings. Clayton Kershaw is second among active pitchers at 0.52.

Tim Lincecum is seventh-highest among active pitchers at 1.64. A.J. Burnett is the worst at 1.90.

I'm compiling historical data for all pitchers with SB/CS data. Buehrle leads so far:

Mark Buehrle: 0.20
Billy Pierce: 0.22
Warren Spahn: 0.23
Claude Osteen: 0.24
Early Wynn: 0.26

...

Tim Wakefield: 1.81
Scott Feldman: 1.85
Chris Young: 1.88
A.J. Burnett: 1.90
Jose Contreras: 2.13
   59. boteman Posted: August 26, 2014 at 11:41 AM (#4779266)
I'm confused by the definitions. If a guy is "picked off", that tells me he is out, period. Merely throwing over to 1B is a "pickoff attempt" the way the announcers call it and happens much more frequently than actually putting out the runner at 1B. For example, the runner dives back to the 1B bag and is later than the throw, so he is out, go sit down. That's a pickoff.

If he breaks toward 2B, even if the pitcher throws to the 1Bman as a tactic, that should not be counted as a pickoff; that's a caught stealing if they tag him out anywhere between the bags.

The statistics conflating pickoff (attempts) with caught stealing seem to muddy the stats by doing so. Clarity there would be helpful. I mean, if Misirlou can be repeatedly confused by this then what hope do we mortals have???
   60. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: August 26, 2014 at 11:42 AM (#4779267)
One problem with Lincecum is that he's horrible at all of the little things of pitching. Taking Bill James's "self-destructive acts" (HBP, WP, Errors, Balks) and adding SB - CS and pickoffs,


That should be SB-2*(CS +PO)


   61. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: August 26, 2014 at 11:49 AM (#4779272)
#59: BB-Ref separates out pickoffs that lead to CS and those that do not. However, a pickoff does not always lead to an out. A runner can be picked off and, in the course of the play, the defense makes an error, allowing the runner to advance. The play would not be captured in the SB/CS data, but would still be considered a pickoff.

#60: That would be accurate from a run value perspective, though I prefer my expression so the sum corresponds to the number of extra bases a pitcher allows through these plays.
   62. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: August 26, 2014 at 02:25 PM (#4779419)
From #56 above...
Not quite Dan Bard level

I wondered about how Bard has been doing, and holy cow. He managed 4 games for Hickory before the Rangers released him. He faced 18 batters, walked 9 of them, and hit 7 more. 13 runs in 2/3 of an inning, good for a 175.50 ERA. I'd say that the meltdown is both complete and terminal.

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