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Monday, November 06, 2006

Bonderman could bring bat Tigers need - 11/06/06 - The Detroit News Online

The Tigers should just say no to trading Bonderman.

Q . Will the Tigers trade Jeremy Bonderman?

A . A personal feeling is yes. I suspect the Tigers will receive an offer too good to refuse. This team has more needs than some folks appreciate. The Tigers need a first baseman with power, they need a catcher they can groom to succeed Pudge Rodriguez, and they need an upper-tier infield prospect as Carlos Guillen—and even Brandon Inge—prepare for possible free agency. A 24-year-old pitcher of Bonderman’s 200-innings, 200-strikeouts status is going to command multiple players, all of which the Tigers will need if they expect to be a long-term contender.

Q . Isn’t it suicidal to trade a pitcher of Bonderman’s skills and youth?

A . A team that builds its organization around pitching will pay a price in hitters and position players. You compensate by trading one of those successful pitchers for multiple offensive players. There is risk involved, but these are the deals you must make, particularly when the Tigers could have 10 or more legitimate starters in camp when everyone reports in February.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 06, 2006 at 03:00 PM | 57 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: tigers

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   1. RTSquared is not on the Rangers' DL...yet... Posted: November 06, 2006 at 03:14 PM (#2232187)
If you keep repeating an idea (Bonderman for Teixeira), does it make it come true???
   2. Torn_cuff (Special Ability Extra) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 03:34 PM (#2232200)
A young catcher in the Braves' system, Jarrad Saltalamacchia, is the kind of future starter they could be expected to grab in a separate trade for a pitcher, say, for someone like Jordan Tata


Who knows? Maybe they can get Johan Santana and Joe Mauer if they throw Tata in with Maybin, Jack Morris, and Lou Whitaker.
   3. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 04:06 PM (#2232214)
If you keep repeating an idea (Bonderman for Teixeira), does it make it come true???

They may be forced to do it just to satisfy the meme.
   4. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 06, 2006 at 04:40 PM (#2232233)
They may be forced to do it just to satisfy the meme.

That seems to happen sometimes. The best example of it I can think of is how a while back, for whatever reason, the media was obsessed with how the Diamondbacks had all the pieces of a championship puzzle except a closer, and everyone was wondering which closer the Diamondbacks would trade for, and how the players on the Diamondbacks would be demoralized if the trading deadline passed and they still didn't have the closer that would be necessary if they truly wanted to advance in the playoffs.

They traded Brad Penny and two Nuñezes for Matt Mantei at the point where the most pressure had built up for them to make a trade; everyone said the Diamondbacks had done a good job; and then pretty much instantly, everyone realized that A) Matt Mantei is mediocre, and B) they didn't need him anyway.
   5. The Robby Hammock District (Dan Lee) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 04:49 PM (#2232238)
two Nuñezes

two Nuñii?
   6. Robert S. Posted: November 06, 2006 at 04:53 PM (#2232242)
Tracy, Estrada, Livan, and Detroit takes their pick of 2B.
   7. Dagezi Posted: November 06, 2006 at 05:55 PM (#2232282)
If you keep repeating an idea (Bonderman for Teixeira), does it make it come true???


I hope so:

Shawn Green for Bonderman, straight up!
Shawn Green for Bonderman, straight up!
Shawn Gr

Okay, I give up.

I would trade Milledge (and then some) for Bonderman.
   8. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 06, 2006 at 06:17 PM (#2232303)
If the Tigers really want to trade a pitcher for some offense, why wouldn't the pitcher they trade be Robertson instead of Bonderman? He's five years older and has about the same amount of service time.
   9. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 06, 2006 at 06:31 PM (#2232310)
Robertson wouldn't bring as much, I suppose. But he'd bring quite a bit. Teixeria is just not a great enough hitter to be worth giving up Bonderman for, though, especially not since he's a first baseman. I'd have to think about Bonderman for Albert Pujols, I suppose. Seriously, I don't think I'd trade him for any less than that if it was only one player. Maybe I'd consider Bonderman for Teixeria and Young, but I might not do it. In short, DO NOT TRADE BONDERMAN!!!!!

Robertson could probably bring an .850 OPS corner outfielder from somewhere, but even so, I think keeping the pitchers and signing somebody would be a much better idea. Frank Catalanotto and Trot Nixon, or two guys of that ilk, signed to reasonable contracts while keeping the pitching intact, would be a good off-season from where I sit. Lee or Soriano, maybe, but not for the prices they'll command. Just give me some OBP to plug the Monroe and Casey/Shelton holes. Inge's defense is too valuable to replace, Polanco usually has a higher OBP than he did last year, and Granderson should be a little better, so the positions that can be changed are the outfield corners and first base--easy positions to plug with OBP on the cheap, certainly without giving up valuable players.
   10. 1k5v3L Posted: November 06, 2006 at 06:46 PM (#2232321)
Shawn Green for Bonderman, straight up!
Shawn Green for Bonderman, straight up!


Dude, you can't even get Evan MacLane for Shawn Green right now. Russ Ortiz, maybe...
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 06:50 PM (#2232327)
With pitching at such a premium, doesn't it make more sense to simply sign a free agent hitter?

Plus, does Chris Shelton really suck that much? What happened to him?
   12. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 06:57 PM (#2232330)
No, he doesn't really suck that much. ZIPS likes him for '07.
   13. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 06, 2006 at 07:13 PM (#2232340)
I'd have to think about Bonderman for Albert Pujols, I suppose. Seriously, I don't think I'd trade him for any less than that if it was only one player.

Whoa...don't you think you're overrating him just a bit? I know he's young and has lots of talent, but he's not exactly the second coming of Pedro.
   14. John M. Perkins Posted: November 06, 2006 at 07:22 PM (#2232347)
Would you trade a 23 year old Pedro Ramos for a 26 year old Fred McGriff?
   15. TH Posted: November 06, 2006 at 07:28 PM (#2232352)
I wouldn't even think about trading Pujols for the second coming of Pedro.
   16. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 06, 2006 at 07:41 PM (#2232363)
I think that Sheffield and Giambi for Bonderman would be reasonable, but of course the Tigers would have to pay part of Bonderman's contract.

Or maybe the Giants can be persuaded to part with Barry.
   17. Kyle S Posted: November 06, 2006 at 08:01 PM (#2232371)
I think that Sheffield and Giambi for Bonderman would be reasonable, but of course the Tigers would have to pay part of Bonderman's contract.

I think they might have to throw in Zumaya to get that done. Maybe Maybin too.
   18. Brian Posted: November 06, 2006 at 08:13 PM (#2232383)
Teixeria is just not a great enough hitter to be worth giving up Bonderman for, though, especially not since he's a first baseman. I'd have to think about Bonderman for Albert Pujols, I suppose.

Whoa...don't you think you're overrating him just a bit? I know he's young and has lots of talent, but he's not exactly the second coming of Pedro.

I agree. I've been trying to figure out how much of the antipathy towards Texeira is due to the past seasons dropoff and how much is just Bonderlust. Are people that down on Tex or do they think Bonderman is about to win 3-5 Cy Youngs?
   19. WalkOffIBB Posted: November 06, 2006 at 08:37 PM (#2232399)
I agree. I've been trying to figure out how much of the antipathy towards Texeira is due to the past seasons dropoff and how much is just Bonderlust. Are people that down on Tex or do they think Bonderman is about to win 3-5 Cy Youngs?

A little of both. I love having Bonderman on my team, but I would still trade him in a hear beat for Pujols (obviously).

But Bonderman is only 24 (two years younger than Teixeira) and appears to be progressing very well. I would make the trade because (1) Bonderman has almost 750 IP already, which makes me wonder if he is an injury waiting to happen; and (2) the Tigers are deep in pitching prospects and need production like Teixeira can provide. But I am not so confident that I would critize the Tigers not making the trade.
   20. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:09 PM (#2232412)
ZIPS likes him for '07.

Which don't mean squat since Leyland clearly hates him.
   21. Kanst Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:30 PM (#2232422)
I would make that trade any day. Teixeira is coming off a down year but he is still a patient hitter with 40 homer power. He is also one of the best defensive first baseman in baseball. Him and Bonderman have about the same amount of service time. Maybe to sweaten it if I was the Tigers I would ask for Arias in addition. The Tigers will not be able to compete in the Central next season without improving the power production from first base. Teixiera would make their offense considerably better. Bonderman could be replaced by Tata until Andrew Miller or Humberto Sanchez are ready.
   22. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:39 PM (#2232428)
Which don't mean squat since Leyland clearly hates him.

Probably he leaves the room when Leyland lights up. Which would mean that he's not around Leyland very much.
   23. J. Michael Neal Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:43 PM (#2232431)
Would I trade Bonderman? Eh, I'd have to think about it. But, really, the Tigers can't just sit on the pitching. The list of guys who are legitimate rotation candidates next year is:

Bonderman
Verlander
Rogers
Robertson
Ledezma
Maroth
Miner
Sanchez

The list of guys who may very well be rotation candidates in 2008 is:

Bonderman
Verlander
Robertson
Ledezma
Sanchez
Miner
Miller
Jurrjens
Tata

Some of those (like Miner) aren't more than 5th spot candidates, but no one needs eight starting pitchers. At the same time, the Tigers got below average production from 1b, LF and DH. I want two of those holes fixed.

There are any number of ways to do that. If you believe ZIPS about Shelton, then sign Lee or Soriano for left and trade, say, Sanchez and Maroth for Dunn. If you don't, find a first baseman and and DH. One way or another, though, if the Tigers don't move some of this pitching for hitting, I'll be disappointed.

I just don't want the pitching moved to be Bonderman or Verlander unless you get a hell of a lot for them.
   24. Brian Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:50 PM (#2232440)
I just don't want the pitching moved to be Bonderman or Verlander unless you get a hell of a lot for them.


Define hell of a lot. Texeira ? Texeira and ???
   25. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:52 PM (#2232442)
uh, you're supposed to trade your longshot, promising pitching prospects for the piece you need, not your solid established quasi-ace.

The Tigers are an old team, they don't have a huge window, and they're not really that deep in prospects either.

Robertson,Ledezma, Maroth, Sanchez, Miner, Miller, Jurrjens, Tata, I wouldn't count on ANY of these guys to replace Bonderman, they're all either fringe #5 guys with a bit of upside, or Tinsnaapp guys who you shouldn't be counting on (or should be trading away now).

Sean Casey isn't that bad either.
   26. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:13 PM (#2232465)
In another thread I proposed Robertson, Shelton, Maybin and Sanchez for Tejada. Guillen then moves to 1B. I think that makes a lot of sense for both teams. Robertson won't be missed and Shelton isn't going to play anyway. Sanchez is a good prospect, but they have plenty of others. They'd probably miss Maybin the most. For the orioles, it fills a bunch of holes and puts them on the path to respectability.
   27. Kanst Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:20 PM (#2232470)
I wouldnt want Tejada if I was you. His range is getting worse each year. His defense is pretty bad. I think the Tigers would be very smart in going after either Sheffield or Bonds. Both give them awesome offense and very good plate discipline. The Tigers are also one of the few teams, with Monroe and Thames, who could have a backup DH which wouldnt cost them too much offense when Barry needs to sit. Either that or I would try to package something like Rodney, Shelton and a prospect to the Yanks for Giambi and cash. As a Yankee fan I would definately make that move.
   28. Kyle S Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:52 PM (#2232497)
I thought Guillen was supposed to be a pretty good SS. Why waste that by getting another one? Just get a 1B if that's what you want; it's a lot cheaper to find a 1B that hits like Tejada than a SS that hits like Tejada.
   29. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:59 PM (#2232502)
Seems to me the ideal guy would be Nick Johnson...high OBP, left-handed, and hardly a bankbreaker...what would Washington want back for him?
   30. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 11:03 PM (#2232505)
Seems to me the ideal guy would be Nick Johnson...high OBP, left-handed, and hardly a bankbreaker...what would Washington want back for him?

Knowing BODES, a toolsy outfielder. Do you still have Kimera Bartee stashed away somewhere?
   31. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 11:09 PM (#2232509)
In another thread I proposed Robertson, Shelton, Maybin and Sanchez for Tejada.

Nahh, the Tigers should probably throw in Verlander and Zumaya to even that up a bit.
   32. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 11:15 PM (#2232512)
One way or another, though, if the Tigers don't move some of this pitching for hitting, I'll be disappointed.

I just don't want the pitching moved to be Bonderman or Verlander unless you get a hell of a lot for them.


My feelings exactly. And JMN, caught you regulating on Mirtle's hockey blog - nice! Hockey is so far behind on stat analysis, but there seem to be a lot more people doing the work.

OGF, your statement about the Tigers pitching prospects is an unhelpful tautology. All either #5s or TINSTAPPs? Convenient. Sanchez is a very good prospect, and its pretty early to give up on Miller. I think Jurrjens could be good, but I have no problem with them trading him. Or Sanchez in the right deal. I think the Tigers could fill their two big holes (power + patience at 1B and maybe LF/DH) without having to give up Bonderman.
   33. Buddha Posted: November 06, 2006 at 11:36 PM (#2232519)
When I see people rant about how good Shelton is or how much Leyland hates him, I immediately know that they don't watch the Tigers very often. The league has figured Shelton out. He's shown no ability to adjust so far.

Shelton was a great story, and he had a great month and a half. But he looked terrible for the rest of the season. Awful. The people that think he's a great fielder or a great hitting prospect being held back by an old crusty manager just weren't watching many Tigers' games last year. No offense.

If they can deal Robertson and Shelton for a good hitter, do it. If you can deal Bonderman and Shelton for a great hitter, do it even quicker.
   34. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 11:43 PM (#2232523)
Buddha, I agree that Shelton looked very poor this year. But what about 05? You don't think that hitter is still there, and he just messed up his swing this year?
   35. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 06, 2006 at 11:56 PM (#2232526)
The people that think he's a great fielder or a great hitting prospect being held back by an old crusty manager just weren't watching many Tigers' games last year. No offense.

None take, but let me clarify -- I don't think Shelton is very good. I think that has a lot to do with why Leyland apparently hates him. Sorry I didn't make that clear. Either way, ZIPS don't manage the Tigers, so Shelton ain't gonaa play too much.
   36. Buddha Posted: November 07, 2006 at 12:11 AM (#2232544)
You don't think that hitter is still there, and he just messed up his swing this year?

I hope that's the case. But I think it's equally plausible that the league figured him out, and he needs to make an adjustment if he can. And so far, he hasn't shown the ability to adjust.

Same with Granderson. His inability to hit anything that isn't moving straight has to be a concern for the long term.
   37. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 07, 2006 at 12:22 AM (#2232564)
True. Who knows? So we should probably move him, but I'd have to think we'd be selling pretty low at this point. I do NOT want Shelton moved if Casey remains the starter. WS aside, he was worse than Sloth this year. And I am quite worried about Curtis as well.
   38. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 07, 2006 at 12:28 AM (#2232573)
Looking at his career stats, 2006 might be as good as Bonderman will get. The ERA and W/L is not very good over the course of his career. Don't forget about the plexiglass principle. That said, I expect better than a 93 ERA+ moving forward and think he'll at least be league average. Nobody knows for certain how he'll do, but I think some people here are getting more excited about the guy than they should be.
   39. Buddha Posted: November 07, 2006 at 12:49 AM (#2232596)
Nobody knows for certain how he'll do, but I think some people here are getting more excited about the guy than they should be.

As a Tiger fan, I agree.
   40. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: November 07, 2006 at 12:52 AM (#2232598)
Randy- All I was saying is that they're flsuh with #5's and non-ml ready prospects, and due to the nature of pitching prospects (honestly, half the teams in baseball have promising pitchig prospects like the tigers do) it would be silly to count on anyone replacing Bonderman's production in the next two years.
I wasn't disparaing their prospects, just disparaging prospects in general.
For a team this old and this close to a ring, I think they should be offering guys like Jurrjens, Sanchez and tata, not trading their ace.
   41. Dagezi Posted: November 07, 2006 at 12:59 AM (#2232609)
levski, you are dense.
   42. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 07, 2006 at 01:11 AM (#2232624)
For a team this old and this close to a ring, I think they should be offering guys like Jurrjens, Sanchez and tata, not trading their ace.

Agreed.
   43. BDC Posted: November 07, 2006 at 01:21 AM (#2232631)
Teixeira, BTW, is coming off a down first half-season. After the All-Star Break in 2006: .291/.394/.604. He plays every game, it was lethally hot in Arlington this summer ... and, coincidentally or not, he hit much better on the road this year than at home.
   44. Darren Posted: November 07, 2006 at 01:48 AM (#2232653)
You know who's a good bat? That Manny Ramirez, that's who. He'd really be a nice centerpiece to the lineup. All the Sox would want back is Bonderman and that Shelton guy that the Tigers hate anyway.
   45. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: November 07, 2006 at 02:25 AM (#2232663)
The ERA and W/L is not very good over the course of his career.


This is just retarded. He's been in the majors since he's 20 freaking years old. Most guys like him would have been dominating AA and AAA his first 2 years in the majors and everybody would be talking about '06 as his breakout sophomore campaign.
   46. Darren Posted: November 07, 2006 at 03:04 AM (#2232685)
Although I don't agree with the use of the term retarded, I agree with the content of Kyle's post. Bonderman would look a whole lot better if he had come up in 2005. Most of his development would have been at the minor league level, leaving his ML numbers a lot prettier.

Good thing the Tigers had him there to lose 19 games in 03 and be mediocre in 04. I'm sure they'll be glad they went that way when they have to pay him 70 bajillion over the next five years.
   47. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: November 07, 2006 at 03:54 AM (#2232731)
He's been in the majors since he's 20 freaking years old. Most guys like him would have been dominating AA and AAA his first 2 years in the majors and everybody would be talking about '06 as his breakout sophomore campaign.


Yeah, a durable 23-year old pitcher who throws 95 with an 8.49 K/9, 3.16 K/BB and 0.75 HR/9? Sign me up.
   48. Kanst Posted: November 07, 2006 at 05:11 AM (#2232767)
The other thing I noticed on Bonderman is he suffered from a very high BABIP this year he was 15th in baseball of all pitchers who threw at least 150 innings. If his .323 BA fell closer to .290 that could drop his ERA closer to a 3.7 mark. I also expect him to improve. I dont ever see him having ERA's under 3 but he could consistently put up a 3.4-3.5 ERA with 200+K's in the AL that would make him one of the top 5-10 most valuable pitchers.

That being said I would still move him for Teixeira. Tex solves so many of the Tigers issues. Hes a switch hitter with patience and power. He is also a phenomenal fielder which will just improve the defense that was so strong for Detroit. If you combine him with a couple other minor deals they will be competitive again next year. The AL central is the toughest division in baseball.
   49. J. Michael Neal Posted: November 07, 2006 at 05:56 AM (#2232786)
And JMN, caught you regulating on Mirtle's hockey blog - nice! Hockey is so far behind on stat analysis, but there seem to be a lot more people doing the work.

Thanks. I can accept that there are a lot of people who don't understand what the numbers they are using mean. I have a harder time accepting people who actively resist trying to understand what the numbers they are using mean. On that thread, I thought I started out with a tone of trying to offer helpful advice.
   50. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 07, 2006 at 06:09 AM (#2232795)
Yeah, that guy's not going to get very far with a 'my numbers say what I want them to, leave me alone' attitude. If, as he repeatedly stated, 'they're just power rankings' with no predicitive intent, why use a formula at all? Just do it the way ESPN does theirs. Have you checked out the stats guys on hockeyresearch.com? I was pointed there, but haven't really had time to poke around yet.

It seems like more teams are interested in advanced analysis (JFJ and the Leafs have made some noises, for example), but I think the reaction by oldline hockey guys, if it catches on, will make the anti-Moneyball discourse look tame.
   51. J. Michael Neal Posted: November 07, 2006 at 08:11 AM (#2232835)
It seems like more teams are interested in advanced analysis (JFJ and the Leafs have made some noises, for example), but I think the reaction by oldline hockey guys, if it catches on, will make the anti-Moneyball discourse look tame.

My impression for a while has been that hockey insiders are aggressively ignorant in a way that even Joe Morgan isn't. Among other things, I just don't believe the conventional wisdom that top notch defensemen don't peak until their middle 30s. I also have a very strong suspicion that the second goal of the game is more important than the first goal, but haven't ever taken the time to look into it.

Thanks for the tip on hockeyresearch.com. I'd never heard of them.
   52. RMc is a fine piece of cheese Posted: November 07, 2006 at 02:42 PM (#2232885)
1) Trade young pitcher who's going to hurt his arm for a good hitter.
2) Keep young pitcher who isn't eventually going to hurt his arm.
3) Profit!
   53. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 07, 2006 at 07:23 PM (#2233051)
My impression for a while has been that hockey insiders are aggressively ignorant in a way that even Joe Morgan isn't.

You get Don Cherry in Michigan?
   54. J. Michael Neal Posted: November 08, 2006 at 01:05 AM (#2233262)
You get Don Cherry in Michigan?

My parents cable system, in Ann Arbor, has CBC out of Windsor, so they do, indeed, get to watch Don Cherry face off with Ron MacLean. I don't get to watch him up here in Minnesota, except when I had the Center (Centre?) Ice Package last year. I work too many nights now to make it worthwhile.

However, I was introduced to Mr. Cherry very early, as I lived in Boston from 1968-1978 (the first ten years of my life).
   55. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 08, 2006 at 02:12 AM (#2233277)
Ahh. Where do you work? Cherry was claiming Saturday nite that 'only he' predicted Joe (#1 overall) Thornton would be better than Sergei Samsonov. But the Leafs were cruising over Buffalo, so it was all good.
   56. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 08, 2006 at 02:13 AM (#2233279)
Bonderman is 4 months older than Verlander. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
   57. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 08, 2006 at 04:19 AM (#2233301)
Exactly why Tigers fans don't want him dealt for anything less than a top-drawer hitter. I think we could fill our offensive needs without dealing him, personally.

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