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Friday, December 02, 2005

Boston Herald: Silverman: Stove heats up for Manny, Angels

  After Konerko signed a five-year, $60 million deal to return to the White Sox yesterday, there were strong indications from Yawkey Way that the Red Sox were focusing on what package of players to seek from the prospect-rich Angels in return for Ramirez.

...

Right-hander Ervin Santana is on the Red Sox’ wish list, but earlier this offseason they were told he is not available. Other players of potential interest to the Red Sox are first baseman Casey Kotchman, switch-hitting Kendry Morales, who can play first and the outfield, and second baseman Howie Kendrick.

The Angels have a jillion good/great middle infield prospects. I say Kotchman and Kendrick or Aybar. Perfecto! (I’m not that interested in Santana.)

Edit: this article also discusses Ishii (not that one!), the Japanese reliever who the Sox want posted but may not be.

Darren Posted: December 02, 2005 at 03:31 AM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox

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   1. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: December 02, 2005 at 05:48 AM (#1756259)
A friend of mine who follows baseball in Japan gave me the following scouting report on Ishii:

Relief pitcher, lefty, 28, kinda small (5'10" 176), first year as closer in Japan and had 37 saves, 1.95 ERA with 91Ks and 15BBs in 73.6 IP with only 51 hits. Say he has good closer mentality, his fastball is around 94, he's got a good breaking ball and pinpoint control.

Career stats here:

http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=617

I read in a blog somewhere that Ishii dominated righties this year to the tune of .181, 35 hits, 75Ks and 10BBs in 193 batters. Can't find those splits anywhere else, so couldn't verify it. If this is true, he must have pretty good movement on his fastball, maybe from a sidearm or cross-body motion that comes at righties and fades back over the plate. That's just a guess, though, based on the stats, knowledge of the typical Japanese herky-jerky motions and that unverified info.

Did see that he had strained rib problems in 2003 and 2004, probably because he's so light and throws fairly hard (think Rudy Seanez). That would be a coninuing problem, I'd guess, especially if he has an unconventional motion like I suspect.
   2. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 02, 2005 at 11:45 AM (#1756373)
I so so so so so heart Ishii is ridiculous.

He's not a sidearmer.

I love his throwing motion, where his right leg will be in mid air and hangs there for 2 seconds pointed straight at 1B, adn then he throws. Totally thrwos off the timing.

The motion is pretty conventional. The little 'stop in the middle' thing is actually fairly common in Japan.
   3. AROM Posted: December 02, 2005 at 03:27 PM (#1756441)
If Aybar goes to the Red Sox, how long before Red Sox nation proclaims him a better prospect than Hanley Ramirez was?

They are the same age, and I've been saying they are equals for about 2 years now.
   4. chris p Posted: December 02, 2005 at 05:03 PM (#1756566)
If Aybar goes to the Red Sox, how long before Red Sox nation proclaims him a better prospect than Hanley Ramirez was?

that's not saying much. hanley is just another tools goof. ;)
   5. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: December 02, 2005 at 05:07 PM (#1756577)
Chris,

Thanks for the info. I take it that means he's almost impossible to steal against too, which is a nice plus. Is he looking at 1B or home when his leg is hanging?
   6. chris p Posted: December 02, 2005 at 05:17 PM (#1756592)
The little 'stop in the middle' thing is actually fairly common in Japan.

i've noticed that with the few japanese pitchers that have crossed the pond. does it have something to do with keeping their weight back to get good leg drive or is it about holding runners/deception?
   7. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: December 02, 2005 at 06:06 PM (#1756681)
I figured it was for deception, since it seems like some times they will pause longer than others, and mix it up.
   8. Shredder Posted: December 02, 2005 at 06:13 PM (#1756693)
I would rather trade Morales than Kotchman. Kotchman's cheaper.
   9. chris p Posted: December 02, 2005 at 06:37 PM (#1756757)
I would rather trade Morales than Kotchman. Kotchman's cheaper.

We would rather trade for Kotchman than Morales. Kotchman's cheaper.
   10. Nasty Nate Posted: December 02, 2005 at 08:48 PM (#1757085)
Luis Castillo traded to the Twins. That ruins a joke I was going to play on my fellow Sox therapians. I was thinking of posting today that weei is reporting Manny was traded! and give a fake trade to rile people up and cure some boredom.

My fake trade would have been:
Sox trade Manny, Pedroia, Shoppach and cash
and get Huff (for 1B), Crawford (for CF), and Luis Castillo

DRays trade Huff, Crawford, and B prospect
and get Manny, Lo Duca, and cash

Marlins trade Castillo and LoDuca
and get Pedroia, Shoppach, and D-Rays B prospect

yes i was bored
   11. AROM Posted: December 02, 2005 at 09:09 PM (#1757141)
I don't think even Chuck Lamar would be that dumb. Unless its a whole lot of cash.
   12. tfbg9 Posted: December 02, 2005 at 10:28 PM (#1757296)
"i've noticed that with the few japanese pitchers that have crossed the pond."



Ishii is from England?!?
   13. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: December 02, 2005 at 10:33 PM (#1757305)
Why would you guys want Kendrick? You already have Pedroia.

It would make more sense for the Sox to ask for Kennedy, who is a free agent after 2006. Pedroia gets a year at AAA and can replace him in 2007.

Not that I want that to happen, just that it would make more sense for both teams.
   14. Honkie Kong Posted: December 02, 2005 at 11:54 PM (#1757442)
Catch the ball?! now sir, you are expecting too much!
   15. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: December 03, 2005 at 12:08 AM (#1757459)
Pedroia's ready now? Better alert the pitchers of the International League, who held him to a 255/356/382 line in just over 200 at-bats last season.
   16. Nasty Nate Posted: December 03, 2005 at 01:06 AM (#1757512)
thats not a bad line for a middle infielder
   17. chris p Posted: December 03, 2005 at 01:42 AM (#1757544)
Pedroia's ready now? Better alert the pitchers of the International League, who held him to a 255/356/382 line in just over 200 at-bats last season.

he was injured for a few weeks. he's ready.
   18. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: December 03, 2005 at 02:27 AM (#1757584)
I'm not saying Pedroia's not going to be a good player, or that he might not be ready very soon. But hitting .255 at AAA doesn't really signal to me that he's ready for a call-up.

Any idea what the MLE is on that line?
   19. chris p Posted: December 03, 2005 at 02:31 AM (#1757586)
I'm not saying Pedroia's not going to be a good player, or that he might not be ready very soon. But hitting .255 at AAA doesn't really signal to me that he's ready for a call-up.

we've gone through this beofre, maybe not with you, bu tplenty of other primates. there is a specific reason why pedroia's aaa line does not represent his true value. he was hit on the hand, played liek crap, went on the dl, played like crap some more, and then finished the aaa strong. he also started his aaa stint strong and had a great line at aa.
   20. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 03, 2005 at 02:53 AM (#1757599)

Any idea what the MLE is on that line?


For the AAA line only, .233/.327/.337. With a 24/17 BB/K ratio, FWIW.

Total combined MLE for the season between AA and AAA:
.266/.348/.384.

If he's not ready in April, he should be by mid-season. He should be able to give them something like .270/.350/.375 this year, with maybe a slight uptick in the SLG if he develops his power a bit. The Red Sox have to decide if they need/want more than that.
   21. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: December 03, 2005 at 03:02 AM (#1757611)
I had definitely not gone through the Pedroia discussion before.

I do think he'll be ready soon, and you guys are convincing that it would be less than a year.

Good; that means you won't get Howie Kendrick or Adam Kennedy. ;)
   22. AROM Posted: December 03, 2005 at 03:17 AM (#1757623)
My projection for Pedroia is even better than that, .280/.354/.420.

Of course, I am second to only Kevin in the Primate Pedroia fan club.

That Slug% projection envisions a lot of doubles off the green monster.
   23. chris p Posted: December 03, 2005 at 03:33 AM (#1757641)
Of course, I am second to only Kevin in the Primate Pedroia fan club.

i like petunias too. MVP MVP!
   24. SABRJoe Posted: December 03, 2005 at 03:34 AM (#1757646)
.420 slugging?

If he puts up one season of .420 slugging in his entire career, I'll eat my own shoe. And I love Pedroia. And my shoe.
   25. chris p Posted: December 03, 2005 at 03:37 AM (#1757651)
If he puts up one season of .420 slugging in his entire career, I'll eat my own shoe. And I love Pedroia. And my shoe.

what goes good with shoe? maybe some gravy? cranberry sauce? mint jelly? maybe you could cut it up and make a curry! i have no idea.
   26. SABRJoe Posted: December 03, 2005 at 03:40 AM (#1757656)
Toe jam.
   27. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 03, 2005 at 04:06 AM (#1757693)
If he puts up one season of .420 slugging in his entire career, I'll eat my own shoe. And I love Pedroia. And my shoe.

Seriously, I'd put the odds at better than 50/50 he evntually slugs .400. Hell, Jeff Frye slugged .400 twice.
   28. 1k5v3L Posted: December 03, 2005 at 04:10 AM (#1757702)
my guess is rallymonkey has earmarked petunia as a throw-in guy in the manny to anaheim deal.
   29. AROM Posted: December 03, 2005 at 05:51 AM (#1757760)
That would be nice. I like Howie Kendrick, too, but he's probably not quite as good.

His projection is .282/.313/.429

In other words, Pedroia with no strike zone judgement whatsoever.
   30. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 04, 2005 at 04:01 PM (#1759421)
Manny Ramirez stat. I must admit that I was pointed to these by a throwaway comment by Eric Van on SoSH about Ramirez being +10 situationally for projection purposes. I don't mean to endorse that conclusion, but I think Manny's situational numbers are worth a look-see:
Year    None On    Runners On   Scoring Pos'n
2001  286/361/590  328/448/629  314/437/553
2002  310/377/573  396/526/736  435/605/769(!!!)
2003  326/390/611  325/462/560  338/512/603
2004  290/381/603  328/413/624  340/444/654
2005  237/332/442  346/439/743  358/471/774
Every year, just about, Manny draws a ton more walks in higher-leverage situations. He also generally cuts his strikeout rate, which produces those big BAs. I don't know what it means. Eyeballing, this is not a consistent pattern with other superstar hitters. I'm inclined to think there might be something here, something about Manny following a strategy of taking what the pitcher gives him with runners on base, or maybe about Manny being the embodiment of that sabermetric ideation, the player who actually does try harder when it matters more.

I don't really know at all. Regardless of whether it means anything going forward, I will point out that Manny has given the Red Sox not merely five years of amazing production at the plate, but he has been at his best in the big situations, every year.
   31. chris p Posted: December 04, 2005 at 04:34 PM (#1759458)
Manny being the embodiment of that sabermetric ideation, the player who actually does try harder when it matters more.

one of the arguments against situational stats is that players that stick in the majors have proven themselsves to be driven and focused. that the people that actually make the majors aren't the type to slack off during at bats no matter how "unimportant" ... superstars like manny could be an exception as they are such great hitters that uncanny-focus and super-self-motivation aren't really needed to make it to the majors.
   32. karlmagnus Posted: December 04, 2005 at 05:43 PM (#1759502)
I would endorse covelli; "Uncanny focus" doesn't appear to be one of Manny's virtues in general. The stats above are VERY revealing, and suggest the Sox would be completely insane to trade Manny, who would be Williams/Bonds in stats if he focused in all at-bats the way he does in pressure situations.

Manny is the greatest position player to appear for the Sox since Yaz, and possibly since Ted. The "Manny wants out" publicity I believe to be very largely Lucchino-generated -- even if he didn't want out it would still make sense for him to trade the Ritz-Carlton apartment at the top of the real estate market and move to something a little cheaper and much more secluded in the 'burbs.

KEEP MANNY!
   33. chris p Posted: December 04, 2005 at 06:15 PM (#1759563)
The "Manny wants out" publicity I believe to be very largely Lucchino-generated

i disagree. i think manny really wants out, and i believe theo would have traded him at the deadline if he had his way. i think manny will be traded this offseason, and i think if he isn't traded, he's going to make a stink during spring training. i think we've seen the last of manny being manny in a red sox uniform. i'll miss him.
   34. Шĥy Posted: December 04, 2005 at 06:32 PM (#1759605)
The "Manny wants out" publicity I believe to be very largely Lucchino-generated

Yes, because Lucchino making up sh-t about Manny is much more likely than the Red Sox realizing that Manny is one of the most overrated players in the game or that Manny's wife wants to get away from his girlfriend.
   35. chris p Posted: December 04, 2005 at 07:13 PM (#1759670)
or that Manny's wife wants to get away from his girlfriend.

just curious ... where did this come from?
   36. Darren Posted: December 04, 2005 at 07:14 PM (#1759671)
The problem with the theory that Lucchino has generated the Manny wants out story is that Manny's reps are often saying that he wants out. They had no complaints when he was put on waivers and they've never denied any of their other reported trade requests. He pretty clearly wants out.
   37. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 04, 2005 at 07:27 PM (#1759687)
It seems pretty clear to me that Manny has requested a trade, multiple times. That's been reported.

It seems also evident - though less definitive - that Lucchino is more enthusiastic about a potential trade than many of the guys in baseball operations. Multiple reports from the trade deadline had Theo working to pull the Sox away from certain possible trades that Lucchino wanted, and even that Lucchino was not speaking for Theo when he took a hatchet to Manny on EEI.

The Red Sox' actions so far suggest that they generally believe Manny is overpaid and would be happy in the right circumstances to honor his requests, but they haven't yet found a good way to guarantee a return on Manny as a trade commodity and on the money saved through said trade that would make a trade work. I don't treat the front office as a black box, though, because I think we have evidence of institutional decision-making structures that are not necessarily working from the same outlook - in particular, that Lucchino has reasons to want to trade Manny that go beyond the conservative statistical evaluations of Manny's value.
   38. Шĥy Posted: December 04, 2005 at 07:34 PM (#1759700)
just curious ... where did this come from?

Boston Herald
   39. 1k5v3L Posted: December 04, 2005 at 08:32 PM (#1759821)
the West Coast, the land of the plastic boobs?

manny actually likes women with brains.

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