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Thursday, August 30, 2007

Boston Red Sox - Drew still doesn’t know what to do - The Boston Globe

The following quote hits on Drew’s biggest problem. Patience is good, passivity is not. Time after time I’ve watched Drew take fastballs down the middle early in counts and then end up swinging at something he can’t handle when he gets to two strikes. The problem with his approach is readily apparent when you contrast his at bats with David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. Although, like all hitters, they sometimes take and swing at pitches they shouldn’t, Drew seems to take more hittable strikes than both of them combined.

I’d be very interested to know what the numbers say. Unfortunately, I don’t get this type of data and, even if I did, don’t have time to run the numbers myself. Nevertheless, in this age of Internet miracles, I hope one of my pals over at The Hardball Times will read this post, take at look at the data, and let us know what the numbers say.

Another criticism of Drew is that he’s been too selective at the plate. One of the reasons general manager Theo Epstein and his staff were so enamored with Drew was his .393 on-base percentage entering the season. Drew seems to take that patience a little too far, often seeming passive and letting good pitches go by without offering, especially when the team needs a big hit.

“At points, you can be [too selective] but sometimes your at-bat isn’t what you want it to be and you go back and watch it and you have a pitch that gets called a strike that’s a ball and you see it again and you’re right, it’s a ball,” Drew said. “That happens to everybody, but you have to be aggressive on the pitch you’re looking for. [Joba Chamberlain] throws me a fastball at 98 miles per hour Tuesday night on the black. Well, I’m looking for a pitch I can do something with. I swing at that and I’m going to have a broken bat and pop up somewhere. But that’s the kind of hitter I am: I know exactly what I’m looking for.”

Jim Furtado Posted: August 30, 2007 at 01:07 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox

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   1. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 30, 2007 at 02:10 PM (#2504569)
What numbers are you looking for? I don't know where you're going to find data on "hittable pitches" taken.
   2. The Essex Snead Posted: August 30, 2007 at 02:30 PM (#2504585)
Most of the numbers seem to say that Drew's an excellent hitter having an off year. Harping on this nonsense is just, um, nonsense.

Somewhere in Los Angeles, Plaschke just popped a Cialis-free boner.
   3. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: August 30, 2007 at 02:31 PM (#2504590)
Dan Fox did a ministudy of this.
   4. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: August 30, 2007 at 02:36 PM (#2504597)
With a *big* assist to Matthew Carruth at THT and Sean Forman at Baseball-Reference.com, 39.7% of the pitches JD Drew saw IN 2006 (I don't have the 07 data) were strikes (called, foul, or swinging) that he did not put in play. League average was 42.8%, leaders were guys like Angel Berroa and Brad Wilkerson at >48% and trailers were guys like Bonds and Pujols at <36%.

Another measure is called strikes as a function of all strikes seen (BIP, called, foul, or swinging). Drew was at 30.0%, league average was 26.7%. Vlad was the trailer, at 9%(!) and Luis Castillo was the leader at 40.2%.

Next week's THT article will talk a little bit more about this as part of the continuing series on the length of plate appearances. I know you'll all be thrilled.

EDIT: I mixed up JD's numbers with Stephen's. Now fixed.
   5. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo Posted: August 30, 2007 at 02:50 PM (#2504612)
Sounds like Drew is going through what Pat Burrell went through from mid-2006 to mid-2007. Suddenly, Burrell has gotten more aggressive -- looking for hittable pitches earlier in the count and making a higher percentage of good contact (to these eyes anyway). I saw a graphic last night that he is leading the NL in OBP and SLG since something like July 2.
Drew will come out of it -- whether it will happen this year, who knows?
   6. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: August 30, 2007 at 04:51 PM (#2504728)
Jon David Drew,
doesn't know what to do
got a honeypot, stuck on his nose
   7. JC in DC Posted: August 30, 2007 at 05:03 PM (#2504738)
This came up in last night's game, and Hershiser very insightfully and bluntly criticized Drew for noting sitting on the 3-0 pitch he got.
   8. CFBF Hates Hyphens Posted: August 30, 2007 at 05:03 PM (#2504739)
That quote from JD is one of the longest, most coherent I've ever seen Drew give.
   9. The Piehole of David Wells, Depends Salesman Posted: August 30, 2007 at 05:59 PM (#2504831)
is this article serious? has the globe not heard of kevin youkilis, who is beloved by sox fans for doing the same thing? i mean, jesus christ, drew's having a bad year. i doubt it has anything to do with pitch selection. fortunately, he picked a good year to have a bad year. give it a rest.

also:
Drew seems to take more hittable strikes than both of them combined.
data? if we're just talking about impressions here, then i guess we have no reason to argue.
   10. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: August 30, 2007 at 06:41 PM (#2504925)
Youkilis, 2006:
pitches that were strikes (called, foul, or swinging) not put in play: 44.1%
called strikes as fraction of all strikes seen: 39.1%

Youkilis is even more passive than Drew.
   11. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 30, 2007 at 06:50 PM (#2504954)
What numbers are you looking for? I don't know where you're going to find data on "hittable pitches" taken.

I'd also like to see the "data" for "pitches where JD was looking for a curve and a fastball showed up, so he took it instead of swinging weakly".

I swear, you folks need to get your nose out of a spreadsheet.
   12. Hugh Jorgan Posted: August 31, 2007 at 12:12 AM (#2505645)
The only stat Drew is leading the league in is soft groundouts to 2B.
   13. philly Posted: August 31, 2007 at 12:35 AM (#2505651)
The only stat Drew is leading the league in is soft groundouts to 2B.


In his defense, he has set a career high in GIDP.
   14. Hugh Jorgan Posted: August 31, 2007 at 12:38 AM (#2505652)
Drew may also be leading the league in leaving RISP in the exact same spots he found them in...

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