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And if they can get sufficient value back for Santana, they would be correct. The AL Central has several teams that should be very good in 2008, reloading and using the savings to sign a couple of their young players to extensions makes sense, if they can get a couple of players who should be good or better in 2-3 years.
Not resigning Santana is a giant middle finger to the fans who are paying for the stadium.
That line jumped at me, and showed me this Eddes guy is a tool.
Its probably worth clearifying the Twins only think lining the owners pockets is a good use of resources.
I think the Twins are wary of committing too many years to a pitcher after watching Joe Mays, Eric Milton, and, to a lesser extent, Brad Radke (although his arm was completely fried by the end of 2006) get hurt in the middle of the contracts. Carl Pohlad has opened up the purse strings for Kirby Puckett, Chuck Knoblauch, and Brad Radke in the past. I think it's just the matter of tying up so much of the payroll in a player who plays a position with a high rate of injury that is keeping them from reaching a deal.
/with all that said, pay him whatever he wants. He's earned it and it can be Grandpa Carl's legacy to the state.
huh? Didn't they dump his salary only a year or two into the deal?
I think it's time for a rule that your non-local revenue (Nat'l TV, MLBAM, revenue sharing, split of the away gate etc.) can be no more than 80% of your major league payroll (three year rolling avg. to allow for rebuilding year).
Teams shouldn't be able to able to lock in a profit w/o selling a ticket.
Knoblauch demanded to be traded. Thats why Twins fans threw things (quarters maybe?) at him when he was in left field, like 3 years after the trade.
ah, I should have remembered that. My bad.
Jeremy Jacobs.
Santana for Kemp + B/C prospect if LA will do it. I thought, as I said, and as AROM said yesterday, that that should have been the Twins goal all along, instead of getting jerked around by the Red Sox and the Yankees over Mastersons and Kennedys. I think Smith should tell Cashman and Epstein that if they expect Santana to be traded within the AL, they have to pony up. If the Twins are going to trade him for a couple of B and C prospects, to the NL he goes. I realize that the real world is much more complex than posting on an internet board, but still.
We'll see.
Yeah, Will Carroll told me this was "all but done" yesterday!
So you're saying you feel Kemp + B/C prospect is better than the rumored Yankee/Red Sox offers?
nah. Kemp + Broxton + B prospect ... that I could see.
that's when i knew it was dead.
Nope, Knoblauch ####### and moaned after signing his contract about how he really wanted to play for a winner. He tried to light himself on fire to get out of town. They threw HOT DOGS at him. It was $1 hot dog night combine with student night letting all the college students in for $1 combined with Knoblauch combined with the fast start in 2001 that created the perfect storm. It was hilarious.
Agreed, but I'm just trying to point out that the Twins have been burned on long pitching contracts in the past. I think it would really set the team back if 25 or 30% of its payroll is injured for the entire 2011 season. As another Twins fan (Craig in MN, maybe) mentioned in another thread, I doubt the Twins would have any problem paying Santana has fair market value year-to-year. Santana wants long-term security and the Twins don't want to tie their hands behind their back. It's the years, not the salary, that is the stumbling block.
andrew, I respectfully disagree. I think Bill Smith has been gearing up to make a run when the new stadium opens in 2010 and he just doesn't want to tie himself down with bad contracts at the time. The payroll has jumped significantly in the past 8 seasons and a year back to consolidate is not a major problem to me. I never expect the payroll to be up in the same stratosphere as the Yankees and Red Sox, but I expected it to be in the middle of the pack once the stadium opens.
I asked him in his chat yesterday "Which will happen first: Santana joins the Red Sox or Pete Rose gets into the HOF?" Sadly, he chose not to answer my question.
Without any question. I would rather have one blue chip than four white chips any day of the week, and while I think a great deal of Philip Hughes, and also like Jacoby Ellsbury, I would try to get the best hitter I could if I were the Twins. The Twins would have Mauer/Morneau/Kemp/Young 3-6 relatively cost-controlled and still have some nice pitching. Kemp has established he can hit ML pitching--hard--and is, I believe, only 23. Colletti might just tell the Twins to shove it if that were offered; I have no idea. But Kemp has had issues in LA, and now Jones has been signed. I would actually consider trading Santana for Kemp straight-up if I were the Twins.
I think Kemp+Broxton makes sense for both the Twins and Dodgers. The Red Sox should make the playoffs with or without Santana. The Yankees are looking pretty strong as well with their young pitching coming in. The Dodgers are a team on the cusp of contention, and this deal could easily push them over the top. Do the Dodgers even have a place to play Kemp, now that they've signed Andruw Jones? Certainly they seem to have more of an excess in the outfield than either of the other two teams.
Well, Kemp + B/C prospect means Kemp + white chip and I'd rather have many white chips than one white chip and I think I'd rather have Ellsbury/Lester/Hughes than Kemp.
I think Kemp+Broxton makes sense for both the Twins and Dodgers.
THIS is different though. I really like Broxton.
I absolutely agree with this, and Kemp has by far the most upside of anyone mentioned in trade talks. There's a very real chance he turns into an Albert Belle/Manny Ramirez type of hitter.
If I were the Twins I'd gladly trade Santana straight up to get him.
I'd prefer to bat them 2-5, with Morneau the lefty hitting between Young and Kemp, but getting them all in Twins uniforms is the most important step.
Me too. But it is Lester OR Ellsbury and Hughes with Melky Cabrera.
Is it just public perception, or are the Dodgers truly undervaluing Kemp? Rumors of "attitude problems" and I guess his defense has been disappointing, but in my universe you overlook a LOT when a young player hits like that.
well, they haven't traded him yet. i think now that grady little is gone, he'll get to play regularly.
How is 116 almost as many as 446?
Edit:I forgot the 25 playoff AB, make it 141 vs 446.
Where I come from, 446 isn't "almost as many ABs" as 116. But that's just my Minnesota math.
Red Sox at bats are worth 4X as much as a Dodger at bat. I looked it up on the new 38 Pitches stat index page.
So if you just include 2007 Kemp still has more than twice as many AB.
So it's only the Red Sox and Yankees who have jerked the Twins around? It's a negotiation, both sides try to win the deal. It's not only one side doing the jerking around. And if you don't think the Twins should be jerked around, maybe they should just sign him since they can afford it. And if they're against signing him, for understandable reasons, and they're after more value than 2 draft picks, then they can't expect a great overall package. I certainly wouldn't want to give out a 120 plus million contract plus young players who themselves could value in the tens of millions. The twins can't have the best of both worlds.
And who's to say the Dodgers will offer Kemp. Even if Kemp is on the table, the Twins might ask for more. They might ask for pitching like they've done in all the deals and that might venture them into Billingsley and Kershaw territory plus prospects like LaRoche, Elbert.
EDIT: not suggesting that as a fair trade, just as a real jaw-dropper.
Meaning he'll have more value when the Twins trade him a year before he walks.
Hughes, Lester, and Ellsbury all project to be average or above-average major league players over the next six years. Cost of paying them? Maybe $20M. Cost of replacing that on the free agent market? Maybe $50M (Matthews) to $90M (Hunter). More, in the unlikely event that they turn out to be stars.
At least the posting fee for Matsuzaka was only $51M, most of which the Red Sox were able to recoup on his contract since he was in a very weak negotiation position. Santana is a great player, but the Twins are asking too much.
first, as a clarification, kemp is a year younger than ellsbury.
second, i never said i rated kemp higher (i also never said i rated ellsbury higher ... i haven't said either way).
all i said here is that ellsbury does not have "almost as many ABs" ... that's why i say cut the ####. if you are going to make hte argument that ellsbury is a better prospect, then do it without getting the numbers so horribly wrong.
the are only "asking too much" if they are determined to trade him. it appears they are perfectly happy holding on to him if they don't get a great offer ... which makes perfect sense for the twins.
Must have switched supplements.
Maybe he was trying to beat out a grounder to 1st against the Brewers, he dove into first, straight into Prince Fielder. He got compacted.
Kemp had AA, and AAA OPS of 930, 950 at a year younger per level than Ellsbury. He's also looks pretty fast, 20-30 SB and 8 or so triples each of the last 3 years
Kemp at 20: 306/349/564 in the FSL (A+) (League: .261/.323/.386)
Ellsbury- NCAA
Advantage Kemp
Kemp at 21: .327/.402/.528 in the SL (league .253/.327/.374- park adjusted OPS+ 165)
.368/.428/.560 in the PCL (league .274/.346/.423- park adjusted OPS+ 151)
MLB OPS of 85 in 166 PAs
Ellsbury at 21: .317/.418/.432 in the NY Penn League
Advantage Kemp
Kemp at 22: .329/.374/.540 in the PCL (OPS+ 131)
125 OPS+ in the MLB 311 PAs
Ellsbury at 22: .299/.379/.418 in A+ (OPS+ 126)
.308/.387./.434 in AA (OPS+ 135)
Advantage Kemp
Kemp at 23????
Ellsbury at 23: .298/.360/.380 in the IL (OPS+ 105)
OPS+ 131 in 127 MLB at bats
I think Kemp is so far ahead of Ellsbury as a hitter that it's not funny.
Kemp really IS Grady Sizemore so to speak
Ellsbury is the 2nd coming of Shanon Stewart
I think Kemp has a good chance to be a middle-of-the-order, impact bat. If I were moving Santana, given the Twins' roster and who they are trying to beat, this is what I would want. Ellsbury is going to be a good player, but I do not see him as the new Grady Sizemore. If you are right about that and I am wrong, I will admit it. Your judgment has proved sound on other issues. But we won't know for awhile, obviously.
jy:
Yes, Hughes is a "blue chip", but I think Kemp has a far lower risk factor and suits the Twins' needs better.
Great, more touchy Red Sox and Yankees fans. As I said, perhaps in the other thread, I have no idea if Coletti would want to do this. And, as I have been saying all week, I understand the NYY/Bos position here: the Red Sox have a kickass rotation with or without Santana and the Yankees believe in the Hypelets. But I think the Twins' position should be that if they are going to move Santana for second and third-tier prospects, he is going to the NL, and that taking the draft picks if they can't get reasonable if not equal value,and moving on is not the end of the Twins' franchise as we know it.
Say, WHAT?!?!? Somebody ought to let Kemp in on a secret -- Grady Sizemore doesn't just hit, he plays defense too. If he's trying to do that imitation he really ought to try getting it right. Kemp has more in common with Moises Alou.
Ellsbury is the 2nd coming of Shanon Stewart
I didn't realize that Stewart was a plus defensive CF? Apparently neither did the Blue Jays.
Nah, that's no fun. Make it interesting. Kemp + Kershaw + LaRoche + suspects for Santana and Nathan.
As for questions about his defence, he is athletic enough to overcome his current flaws. His errors seem to come from lack of concentration than due to any inability to get to the ball. Let Ellsbury play a full season in the majors before you anoint him a GG center fielder.
You are expecting people to weigh 18 PAs more heavily than 400 PAs in AAA. Thats where the contention is. Ellsbury is a good prospect, but he is not the next Willie Mays, or even the next Andruw.
Look at what Andruw did in the WS at AGE 19!! It still took him cpl of years before he adjusted to the majors. People still think he could have been the greatest thing ever based on those 20 ABs
I've never attempted to make that comparison. Was just objecting to somebody choosing to compare Kemp to a GG CF while comparing Ellsbury to an average defensive LF. Kemp's defense at this point lags Ellsbury's.
My words were "plus defensive CF", because that is what I think Ellsbury will be next year. Never said "gold glove". He might reach that potential, he might not. We'll have to see him for a full season to find out.
You do realize that Jones has 10 gold gloves, started 4 AS games and has a career OPS+ of 113, don't you?
If you find that disappointing, then I'm all for being disappointed
When Andruw was coming up, he and Vlad were considered the 2 best OF prospects in a while. And people were betting on Jones to be the next Willie Mays, and outhit as well as out-field Vlad. That hasn't happened, despite the talent. Which makes him a disappointment to many.
And nice aside anyway. I didn't use the WS series stats to extrapolate their career, but how success in few ABs in the postseason doesn't lead to success immediately in the regular season afterwards. His career is going to be best projected with the sum total of his minor league stats, not a few ABs in a cup of coffee or in the postseason. And if you use his full numbers, he is no Kemp.
And to add, you might have missed this sentence, so i will put it in bold.
Ellsbury is a good prospect, but he is not the next Willie Mays, or even the next Andruw.
Finally, some truth!
Did you skip 43 Randy?
Unless he edited the post since you said this, JPWF13 did include these numbers. To re-post what he said:
Ellsbury at 22: .299/.379/.418 in A+ (OPS+ 126)
.308/.387./.434 in AA (OPS+ 135)
...
Ellsbury at 23: .298/.360/.380 in the IL (OPS+ 105)
OPS+ 131 in 127 MLB at bats
Of course, at age 22, when Ellsbury was putting up OPS+s of 126 at A+ and 135 at AA (which is very good), Kemp was putting up a 131 at AAA and a 125 in the major leagues. Kemp has clearly been more advanced as a hitter throughout their respective careers to this point.
So far we have:
1. Kemp is a year younger than Ellsbury; and
2. Kemp is more advanced as a hitter than Ellsbury.
Two big pluses for Kemp. Defense? Baserunning? I don't know enough about either to really say. I know that Kemp is fast, a good athlete. So is Ellsbury.
I happen to think that Kemp is a bit overrated, personally. However, most of my reaction is based on my seeing him play in 2006, I didn't see much of him in 2007. In '06, he was absolutely terrible against breaking balls. Catastrophic. In the series against the Angels, the final game saw him face John Lackey and Francisco Rodriguez: he saw breaker after breaker and put one in play. Two nights prior, against Bartolo Colon, who doesn't have a devastating breaking ball in the slightest, he was 2-for-4.
Obviously, this is correctable, and something many rookies have difficulty with. Kemp appears, from the results, to have made a lot of adjustments in '07. His strikeout rate tumbled at the major league level; he may really be a .300 hitter. He doesn't walk a lot, so most of his offensive value will likely come from his power, which he's demonstrated everywhere he's been.
Ellsbury, though older than Kemp, hasn't really demonstrated plus power. He had only a .082 ISO at Pawtucket, a park that cuts doubles but helps HR; the International League had an ISO of .133. His ISO was average in the Eastern League in '06, though he obviously tore up the league in '07.
Ellsbury also didn't walk a lot last year, dunno if that will be permanent or not. If it is, the majority of his hitting value will rest in his batting average.
Stealing bases? Ellsbury was 105-27 in his minor league career, 9-0 in the majors. Kemp was 69-22 in the minors, 16-5 in the majors. Slight edge for Ellsbury, but not huge in its actual impact.
It's closer than I thought it would be when I started looking at it, but I think the age and hitting give Kemp the edge.
thanks. that was some great analysis.
Missed that one and I think the Dodgers would be giving up too much. Not that either trade would ever happen. While we are talking absurd trades though, how about:
Kemp + Kershaw + Broxton + LaRoche + Loney + Martin for Santana + Nathan + Mauer + Morneau
It seemed like you were oblivious to that, which is why I decided to stage a 1 man intervention !
Snark aside, let me give you another example as to why small number of ABs in the first year in the MLB are often not very predictive. Was supposed to be part of my previous post, but my advisor walked in , distracting me :)
Prospect A
341/372/568, 10 HRs, 31 RBIs in his first 155 ABs. Killer defence to boot. Age 21
Prospect B
353/394/509, 3HRs, 9 SBs in 116 ABs. Good defence. Age 23
Which OF do you choose going forward?
is this really true? kemp clearly has more power potential, but is he more "advanced"? ellsbury has a very good approach ... he's very advanced for his age/experience level.
thanks. that was some great analysis.
Yeah, it would be much better if I had just spouted off about something I didn't know instead of admitting where I didn't have knowledge.
IMO, no, but that is part of why, ironically, I like Kemp. I saw him a lot last year, and I saw a guy who could be a really awesome hitter if he improves a bit and refines his approach and who is already dangerous. Will he take that step? Maybe not, but given the Twins roster and the competition in the Central, East and the Angels, I would want that big-time upside. Watching Ellsbury, I saw a more polished guy who will be a nice player--but not a wheelhorse hitter.
I didn't step into that because I thought you guys might be buddies kidding each other, but, yeah, the fact that you admitted you don't know about that part of the issue made the whole post more credible to me at least.
Look again the MLB numbers are there.
Ok Ellsbury had a .452/.518/.644 line in 83PAs at age 23 in AA Total Age 23 AA/AAA line= .323/.387/.424 and an OPS+ of 120-125
Kemp still blows him out of the water as a hitter.
The fact is, none of us know how Ellsbury's defense is going to translate. He might be +15, he might be +3. Lots of speed demons have come up and not turned into Mike Cameron or Carlos Beltran out there.
Here's another option: would the Twins take Pierre off the Dodgers hands in order to get Billingsley and LaRoche? Does that make any sense?
Age 19: .315/.363/.545 in A and A+ (FSL)
Age 20: .318.388/.449 in FSl and AA
Age 21: .277/.388/.440 in AAA (IL) (OPS+ 138) (pitchers park+ pitcher's league)
Age 21: MLB 78 OPS+ in 185 PAs
Age 22: .342/.395/.575 (spread over 4 minor league levels)
Age 22: MLB 105 OPS+ in 206 PAs
Just traded for a song and being relentlessly badmouthed by his idiot ex-manager. ("we see things you don't")
Santana for Pierre, Billingsley, & LaRoche? That seems a bit skint for the Twins, unless LA eats a large amount of the JP contract.
Exactly. Also, there were a few times last year during his coming-out party where Ellsbury looked awful going back on the ball (more in Fenway than road parks, from what I recall). That might have to do with park familiarity more than actual akwardness, but who knows.
Sports = entertainment. Certain players transcend their on-field value for certain teams.
is this really true? kemp clearly has more power potential, but is he more "advanced"? ellsbury has a very good approach ... he's very advanced for his age/experience level.
I believe so. JPW3F13's post demonstrated that Kemp has been better (as a hitter) than Ellsbury every year by age, and that's true of minor league level, as well. At AA, Kemp had an OPS+ of 165; Ellsbury had one of 126 and one of ... oh, that's what kevin was talking about, not including Ellsbury's '07 in AA ... looks like maybe a 226, which adds up to a 153, a bit short of Kemp's 165. At AAA, Kemp had a 151 and a 131, adding up to a 142; Ellsbury had a 105.
That obviously doesn't mean it's a guarantee that Kemp will continue to outproduce him.
When I say that Kemp is more "advanced" as a hitter than Ellsbury, I mean that he has (1) hit better at the same age against higher competition and (2) hit better at each level. I don't mean to be talking about their approaches here -- I have no trouble believing that Ellsbury has a more advanced approach than Kemp at the plate (esp. as I was critical of what I saw from Kemp in '06 above). I was speaking strictly about performance.
in abt 180 less ABs
Age 23 Ellsbury had a 131 OPS+ in 127 MLB PAs, and a translated OPS+ of about 100-105 in 484 AA/AAA PAS
That works out to 110 over 600+ PAs. At age 23
Kemp's AAA and MLB performance at age 22 works out to 119.
Kemp's AA/AAA and MLB performance at age 21 works out to 115 (he really was absolutely superlative in 400+ AA/AAA at bats).
Kemp is better hitter NOW than Ellsbury
Kemp is younger than Ellsbury
Of course I know you only want to use MLEs when the MLEs suggest you fave is better than his performance to date- like with Petunia after his inauspicious first 150 ABs.
Ellsbury's first 100 PAs do have some meaning, about as much meaning as
this guy's first 100 ABs
Now don't go and tell me I shouldn't compare a 23 year old good defensive CF with a clumsy converted catcher trying to play 1B (badly). That's not the point, the point is
even Coco had a month in 2007 (July) like Ellsbury had in September- and look at Stephen Drew, league average in AAA in 2006, great in 200 MLB at bats in 2006- and turned back into a pumpkin in 2007 (pretty close to his 2006 AAA translated numbers actually)
That kind of analysis penalizes Ellsbury unfairly.
Perhaps, but I don't mean to be unfair about it. But I think that by far the number one determinant in evaluating position player prospects is their ability to hit. Obviously, defense is important, but you find a place to play a guy who can hit; you don't find a place to hit the guy who can field.
Baserunning? Over the course of their professional careers, Ellsbury gets, what, 6 runs on Kemp for basestealing? Be generous and give him another three or four for other baserunning, and he's only making up 10 runs on a guy that's out-hit him at every level. And Kemp is a damn good athlete, and a fast runner; it's not like this is a weakness in his game, as far as I know.
****
I think a few reasons:
1. Hughes was OK, and had his moments, but looked like, well, a rookie SP. Buchholz as you say pitched a no-hitter.
2. Pitchers are more unpredictable than hitters, so as we are seeing in this thread, Ellsbury's late-season performance is not seen as being predictive.
3. A lot of guys--Billy Hatcher, the "aforelinked" Brian Doyle--have big post-seasons and guys often come up and have 150 hot ABs.
That said, Ellsbury/Kemp could go many ways. It is safe to say both will be pretty good big-league ballplayers. But there are unanswered questions about each that will tilt their careers in ways we can't see yet.
As I have explained, I think Kemp has a higher upside--yes, Ellsbury is really fast and will be a plus and maybe great CF--but Kemp is mobile, runs well, and has the pop. In addition, I think he better suits the Twins' long-term needs. So, I think he is a more valuable to the Twins than Ellsbury and the other guys mentioned in the deal. If I move Santana, I want a guy who could be a serious asskicker in exchange. There are always white chips on the table.
No, I like Ellsbury, I'm just trying to back Kevin down from his crazy talk so he's not completely devastated when Ellsbury gets dealt in a few weeks
:-)
of course you can. his upside defensively is 'good center fielder' and the downside is corner outfielder ... probably right field. he's likely to be good in right field and below average but passable in center. he's no slouch.
kevin says we're overlooking baserunning and defense, but he's the one who said:
I think this is an invitation to examine their respective hitting records, and Kemp's appears to be superior, especially given that he is younger. There are various ways to argue that Ellsbury is the better player, or will be the better player in the long run, but it's awfully hard to say he's accomplished more as a professional hitter so far.
Before this year began I took no small measure of abuse on one thread for stating that while King Felix had been consensus #1 heading into 2006 that he'd been passed by both Liriano and Verlander...
Seriously though, on another thread I listed (in order) BA's top pitching prospects heading into 2006:
Liriano
Billingsly
Verlander
Cain
Lester
Jenks
Olsen
Zumaya
Pelfrey
Papelbon
Bailey
Hughes
Anibel Sanchez
Anthony Reyes
Mark rogers
Loewen
Adam Miller
McGowan
Seriously only 2 outright busts in the top 10... (and even they may not be done)
Post 96 suggests he has problems going back on balls in Fenway. Even Kevin admits Ellsbury might take a year to adjust.
Except the majors.
And the World Series.
Those minor league numbers sure are impressive though.
Kevin, you're a smart guy, you understand sample size. You know that, when evaluating players, you go by more than just their last 127 plate appearances. I mean, Cody Ross hit 350/423/658 over his last 120 AB last year. Gary Matthews Jr hit 192/287/350 over his last 120 AB. Let's not be silly.
and sign Torii Hunter to a multi year deal or anything...
When the Red Sox bench Ramirez, let me know.
BTW, kevin, Sam Horn is a San Diegan and I played against him in pickup basketball (not baseball) in high school. My buddy pitched for the baseball team at our school and gave up a long jack to Horn in a high school game.
of course you can. his upside defensively is 'good center fielder' and the downside is corner outfielder ... probably right field. he's likely to be good in right field and below average but passable in center. he's no slouch.
What chris p said.
My only question on Kemp as a player is "Can he hit the ball often enough?"
Ahh, yes, that would be the no hitter that Hughes flirted with but was pulled from with a hamstring injury that DL'd him and affected his delivery on his return.
Nevertheless, that would have nothing to do with his performance the rest of the year.
Oh yeah.
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