BPro currently has the Red Sox at about 5% to win the East, which sounds about right to me. Even if you think the Red Sox will play as a .600 team from here on out--unlikely, but not totally out of the range of possibility--they'd win something like 91 games. The Yankees only have to play .530 baseball to beat that, which is worse than their winning percentage before the 10-game streak. And that's ignoring the possibility of TB or even Baltimore or Toronto beating out the Sox.

I don't agree about dumping Youk though, in large part because I'm a lot less sold on Middlebrooks (.212/.289/.212 in June) than a lot of people seem to be. I will freely concede I have seen a lot less of him than a lot of people have.

Yeah, given that the Yankees have a better offense, vastly better pitching, and a pretty big lead forty percent of the way through the season, it sure seems extremely unlikely to me.

I suppose it COULD happen, but I wouldn't bet a plug nickel on it.

I don't agree about dumping Youk though, in large part because I'm a lot less sold on Middlebrooks (.212/.289/.212 in June) than a lot of people seem to be. I will freely concede I have seen a lot less of him than a lot of people have.

Amen brother. Middlebrooks has been good so far but he's also been fortunate on balls in play (.356 BABIP) and his defense has been pretty poor. The defense I think will be fine, his errors have mostly been of the type a player not accustomed to the speed of the game would make; rushed throws, letting balls play him. I think as he gets comfortable that will be alright.

His offense is another matter. He strikes out a lot and rarely walks. What is odd is that when I watch him he doesn't seem to be a free swinger like say Vladimir Guerrero. It's not like he goes chasing sliders in the left-handed batters box regularly, he just swings and misses rather often. I think there is a very real chance that Youkilis will be superior to Middlebrooks the rest of the year.

I should note that many of the issues I have with Middlebrooks I had with Reddick and so far Reddick is making me look like a dope.

jim

not to rub it in but the brewers 3 catchers have ops pluses of 156, 123 and 100 respectively. that is the firm of lucroy, kotteras and maldonado. kotteras was a cast off from the red sox if memory serves.

georgie ain't any great shakes behind the plate but he takes a walk and if you throw him a fastball on the inside part of the plate about four inches above the knees, kapow.

gef the talking mongoose still could win Pulitzer Prize.

(Though I guess the odds were a teensy bit better when I actually worked in a newsroom. Which hasn't been the case for 9 1/2 years now. Wow. *sigh*)

I think we're going to know about the Sox one way or another in three weeks. The upcoming schedule is;

3 vs. Miami
3 vs. Atlanta
3 vs. Toronto
4 at Seattle
3 at Oakland
4 vs. New York

If they can play well in this stretch (12-8 or so) they will be a bit over .500 and probably between 4-6 games of a playoff spot at the break with some reinforcements about ready to go. If they stumble (and they've been awful at home this year) then they are going to be at or below .500 and more like 8-10 games back and then even with reinforcements and half a season left it's a tall hill.

I like Middlebrooks. They need to let him grow and see what type of adjustments he makes. I'd rather see him getting playing time than watch Youk take up space.

I'd rather see him getting playing time than watch Youk take up space.

Of course. The question is, would you rather see him getting playing time than watch Youk hit 380/500 while playing solid defense at 3B? And which scenario is more likely? And what is the likely return in trade for Youkilis?

I'm in favor of a Youkilis trade that improves the team. That could work either if Youkilis brought in return a good starting pitcher, or if Youkilis actually is as terrible as his 2012 stats. It's not clear to me that (a) is possible or that (b) is true.

That Sox schedule is something: Their first game of the year in Yankee Stadium isn't until July 27th, and then they go back again three weeks later and again to close out the season.

What is odd is that when I watch him he doesn't seem to be a free swinger like say Vladimir Guerrero. It's not like he goes chasing sliders in the left-handed batters box regularly, he just swings and misses rather often

PITCHf/x Plate Discipline agrees with you on both points. Is this a good or a bad thing? Isn't it better to lay off horrible pitches and swing and miss at a few more strikes than it is to hammer strikes and regularly flail at sliders in the dirt. At least the pitcher has to throw you hittable pitches.

It's not clear to me that (a) is possible or that (b) is true.

(a) would shock me, (b) seems more believable because I'm assuming he's got to be banged up and ready for another DL trip. He came back in May and hit very well, but a 5/39 June leaves me thinking he's a lesser Griffey, very good on those occasions when he's actually healthy.

PITCHf/x Plate Discipline agrees with you on both points. Is this a good or a bad thing? Isn't it better to lay off horrible pitches and swing and miss at a few more strikes than it is to hammer strikes and regularly flail at sliders in the dirt. At least the pitcher has to throw you hittable pitches.

See I would go the other way. If he was chasing pitches out of the zone I'd feel like it was something correctable. If he is just missing hittable pitches maybe he just isn't that good?

And Mark Prior could record the final out in the pennant clinching game, coming out of the bullpen to strike out the last 4 batters of the game.

It's over?

If they can play well in this stretch (12-8 or so) they will be a bit over .500 and probably between 4-6 games of a playoff spot at the break with some reinforcements about ready to go. If they stumble (and they've been awful at home this year) then they are going to be at or below .500 and more like 8-10 games back and then even with reinforcements and half a season left it's a tall hill.

They're only 4 G out of a playoff spot *now*. If they play .600 ball for 3 weeks the likelihood would seem to be that that being 4-6 games out of a playoff spot would be something close to a worst case scenario based on most of the teams above them playing that well or better than that for the same stretch.

That could work either if Youkilis brought in return a good starting pitcher, or if Youkilis actually is as terrible as his 2012 stats. It's not clear to me that (a) is possible or that (b) is true.

They can't get (a) now because Youk doesn't have that sort of value. He may not have that value again. What they need to do is play Middlebrooks at 3b as much as possible, move Youk to 1b/dh to split time with AGon (who must move to the of) and Papi. Youk has to prove his health and his ability to hit. Middlebrooks needs to play every day until it's deemed he can't hit or field at a major league level.

My guess is Youk can still hit but can't stay healthy enough to prove it but trading him today - unless he's a huge noise in the clubhouse - is waving the white flag.

think you need ray to confirm red sox division chances

/that's a joke folks

And Mark Prior could record the final out in the pennant clinching game, coming out of the bullpen to strike out the last 4 batters of the game.

19 Ks in 8 IP in AAA! I hope he finally makes it back, although not quite like that unless the Sox trade him to someone else.

[Bobby V and Cherington are chasing the AL East pennant. It rolls through some bushes]
Bobby V: It's just a little dirty! It's still good, it's still good!
[it rolls off the edge of a drainage culvert, and the pennant floats down the stream]
Bobby V: It's just a little slimy! It's still good, it's still good!
[the pennant reaches a dam at the end of the stream and plugs the drain hole. The water pressure builds up behind it, until it launches out of the hole into the air]
Bobby V: It's just a little airborne! It's still good, it's still good!
Cherington: It's gone.
Bobby V: I know.

Jim Furtado feeling it.

WMB: .212/.289/.212 in June

(worth repeating)