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Thursday, December 06, 2018

Boston resigns Eovaldi

The ACES client has secured a four-year, $67.5MM contract, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

How much did his stellar post season drive up his price? My guess is he got an extra 2 years/40 million.

charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: December 06, 2018 at 01:10 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: boston red sox, nathan eovaldi, offseason

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   1. villageidiom Posted: December 06, 2018 at 06:12 PM (#5794823)
Was this necessary? [/makethesamemistaketwice]

Seriously, I'm glad to see him back. And I think of this less of "monster postseason fooled them" and more of "did we learn anything from giving up Rich Hill?"
   2. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 06, 2018 at 06:22 PM (#5794827)
Sox are gettin' the band back together for one last big show!

Eh, Porcello and Sale are FA after next year, need someone else there to hold down the fort I suppose. Not sure what they'll offer Sale but I'm pretty sure they won't offer Porcello anything much.

If he stays healthy, he seems like he can be pretty effective though he only threw 111 innings last year, so we'll see.
I'm not sure he's ever going to give the Sox 200 innings, but maybe 160 super effective innings would be really good return.
   3. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 06, 2018 at 06:31 PM (#5794831)
I suspect Eovaldi will earn his money if he stays healthy. That's a significant "if", but I don't think a team in Boston's position can avoid assuming that risk.
   4. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: December 06, 2018 at 06:47 PM (#5794836)
Yeah, the only real question is if he can stay healthy. If he hits 200 innings in 2 of the 4 years the contract is probably a good deal.
   5. puck Posted: December 06, 2018 at 07:33 PM (#5794850)
Wait, he's never hit 200 innings. (He got as close as you can without doing so, 199 2/3.)

I'm sure people have already discussed this, but why is this a good deal? He's had 2 seasons with 100+ innings and an ERA+ above 100, 2 years with 2+ WAR (not the same two years), one year where he's qualified for the ERA title.
   6. puck Posted: December 06, 2018 at 07:36 PM (#5794854)
Oh I see there's a discussion in the Dugout.
   7. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: December 06, 2018 at 07:36 PM (#5794855)
Eovaldi is AJ Burnett and so many others over the years. If you accept that he is what he is, a good pitcher with some flaws and don’t keep waiting in vain for the Cy Young season that is never going to happen (“but he throws 101 mph!!!”) then he’s fine. You can make yourself nuts expecting more.
   8. I Am Not a Number Posted: December 06, 2018 at 07:41 PM (#5794858)
If he hits 200 innings in 2 of the 4 years the contract is probably a good deal

It feels like you're using an outdated measuring stick. Just 10 SP logged 200 IP last year. Most starters are now averaging between 5 and 6 innings per start. A rotation regular will soon look like 30/170.

The Red Sox are probably hoping for 600 decent innings over the life of the contract.
   9. bbmck Posted: December 06, 2018 at 08:10 PM (#5794864)
nth place in IP by season where n = 3x the number of teams:

1963 - 175.2
1968 - 196
1973 - 186
1978 - 178.2
1983 - 175.2

1988 - 176.1
1993 - 164
1998 - 171
2003 - 165.2
2008 - 159.2

2013 - 153
2014 - 159
2015 - 149
2016 - 146.1
2017 - 141
2018 - 136.2
   10. Rough Carrigan Posted: December 07, 2018 at 12:05 AM (#5794887)
The thing with Eovaldi is that in some games he absolutely pitches like a Cy Young winner. Tremendous stuff, excellent control and the hitters look completely overmatched. But then a game or two later it's just all out of sync even though his motion doesn't seem all that complex. Maybe I don't remember AJ Burnett well enough but even at his best I was always thinking that an inning later it'd all fall apart. Within his "on" games you wonder how anyone ever scores off Eovaldi. He's much better grist for Cy Young reveries than Burnett. I acknowledge that it's exceedingly unlikely to happen.
   11. Tom Nawrocki Posted: December 07, 2018 at 09:00 AM (#5794924)
In Game Three of last year's World Series, Rick Porcello pitched 4 and 2/3 innings, allowing one run, and Sox fans want to get rid of him. In the same game, Eovaldi pitched 6 innings, allowing two runs, and made himself $67.5 million. That's baseball, Suzyn.
   12. villageidiom Posted: December 07, 2018 at 10:03 AM (#5794939)
The thing with Eovaldi is that in some games he absolutely pitches like a Cy Young winner. Tremendous stuff, excellent control and the hitters look completely overmatched. But then a game or two later it's just all out of sync even though his motion doesn't seem all that complex.
With guidance from Brian Bannister he'd made some adjustments in 2018 that raised his game. This is filthy.
   13. SandyRiver Posted: December 07, 2018 at 10:27 AM (#5794945)
#11: Of course, if Kinsler completes a fairly routine play, it's 2 innings, no runs, and probably a Sox sweep. (And maybe Eovaldi doesn't get as good an offer. I love irony.)
   14. puck Posted: December 07, 2018 at 10:36 AM (#5794952)
The data in #9 is very interesting.

No real comment, but I appreciate people running these types of queries and posting them.
   15. ericr Posted: December 07, 2018 at 10:59 AM (#5794968)
In Game Three of last year's World Series, Rick Porcello pitched 4 and 2/3 innings, allowing one run, and Sox fans want to get rid of him. In the same game, Eovaldi pitched 6 innings, allowing two runs, and made himself $67.5 million. That's baseball, Suzyn.


It's almost as if fans' opinions are based on more than one game.
   16. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: December 07, 2018 at 01:30 PM (#5795086)
I would much rather have Eovaldi at 4/67 than Corbin at 6/140
   17. Walt Davis Posted: December 07, 2018 at 04:20 PM (#5795184)
I would much rather have Eovaldi at 4/67 than Corbin at 6/140

Pitchers are strange beasties with non-linear career jumps, inconsistent aging patterns and of course they're all just one injury away from being useless ... so you may end up being right. But this is essentially a statement that past performance doesn't matter.

Over the last 4 years, Eovaldi has thrown 390 innings, 98 ERA+, 2.8 WAR, missed an entire season.

In the last 4 years, Corbin has 630 innings, 112 ERA+, 8 WAR. 160% of the innings, 250% of the value, 130% of the AAV, 200% of the total contract value (for two extra years of control). It's quite possible that Corbin will produce as much value in 2019 as Eovaldi will for his entire contract (Corbin had 2.8 bWAR in 2017). It's reasonable to seriously doubt Corbin's 2018 breakout, it's a good bit more difficult to doubt Corbin's breakout but have faith in Eovaldi's and it's pretty much undeniable that Corbin's 2017 was as good as Eovaldi's "breakout."

Like I said, it could very well work out that Eovaldi is the better contract. He's paid roughly like Ian Kennedy (4.9 WAR in 3 years) and Mike Leake (4 WAR in 4 years) while Corbin is paid roubhly like Cueto (8.6 WAR in 3 years, now TJS), Zimmermann (1.3 WAR in 3 years) and Darvish (oops).

So Cuetos's 8.6 WAR (with 3 years to go) relative to Kennedy/Leake is a perfectly OK deal -- $130 M total vs $70-80 total for twice as much WAR already, probably not a lot more to come. But Zimmermann needs to step it up to reach even 4 WAR over his contract and who knows how well Darvish will come back from injury but the first 1.5 seasons are down the tubes.

So possibly for pitchers previous performance really deosn't matter. But in that case, why pay Eovaldi 4/$68 when I'm sure the Cubs would be happy to trade you Chatwood. :-)
   18. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: December 09, 2018 at 11:17 AM (#5795492)
All great points, Walt. But to quote the philosopher Bernadette Peters (from The Jerk) "It's not the money. It's the stuuuuff".

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