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Saturday, August 28, 2010

Boswell: What kind of Strasburg will return?

Big Game, Big Spot, Big Snap.

Add me to that camp. I don’t think the Nats brought him along too fast or slow. I don’t think his pitch limit or innings load was a mistake. It’s all an educated guess. I don’t even think Strasburg’s improved “circle change-up” this season, which acts akin to a screwball, created the problem, though the pitch can cause pronation of the elbow that strains the ligament that got torn. It all depends how you throw the circle change. For decades, it was also called “the window-shade change” because you pulled straight down, like closing a shade, causing little elbow strain.

With hindsight, the easy second-guess is that the Nats should have shut Strasburg down for the season after he went on the disabled list with shoulder stiffness last month. Not because his shoulder hurt, but because favoring discomfort in one part of the arm sometimes causes injury elsewhere. File under: It seemed like a good idea at the time.

My contribution to the causal guessing game comes from direct observation. I’ve never seen a young pitcher put under a fraction of the big-game pressure Strasburg faced. It’s nobody’s fault. But I think it helped snap an elbow.

Repoz Posted: August 28, 2010 at 11:33 AM | 40 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: August 28, 2010 at 12:39 PM (#3628525)
Pitchers, probably more than any single position in popular American sports, are asked to do something which is physically unnatural. Running, sliding, catching, kicking, swinging, skating, skiing, dribbling, bowling,tackling - all of these things, while physically demanding, ask the body to do less against its physiology than being a high-level pitcher. Even other "throwers", like quarterbacks, are not asked to throw with the kind of windup, velocity, or frequency of pitchers. A run-and-gun QB, for example, will throw perhaps 600 passes in 16 NFL games, with some of them being relatively soft, "touch" passes. A starting pitcher will make that many in-game throws in six starts, anw will start 30-34 times, rather than 16 times, a season.

When I think about the strain pitching generally puts on your elbow and shoulder, my two thoughts are:

1) I don't understand why there aren't more sidearm or submarine pitchers - that is a far more natural motion.
2) This reminds us that a league-average pitcher who is able to stay healthy every year, and pitch lots of league-average innings, does have meaningful value. You're welcome, Livan Hernandez.
   2. Justin 'The Cespedobear' T Posted: August 28, 2010 at 12:59 PM (#3628531)
I’ve never seen a young pitcher put under a fraction of the big-game pressure Strasburg faced.

Come on, man.
   3. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: August 28, 2010 at 01:13 PM (#3628533)
I’ve never seen a young pitcher put under a fraction of the big-game pressure Strasburg faced.

Come on, man.


Really. David Clyde, Fernando, Gooden, just to name three I thought of in all of 5 seconds. Ben McDonald.
   4. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 28, 2010 at 01:16 PM (#3628535)
1) I don't understand why there aren't more sidearm or submarine pitchers - that is a far more natural motion.

a) Despite supposedly being more natural, these deliveries are much more difficult to master.

b) Although a low sidearm or submarine delivery puts less stress on the shoulder, the forces applied to the elbow are essentially the same as with an overhand motion.
   5. TerpNats Posted: August 28, 2010 at 01:26 PM (#3628543)
I’ve never seen a young pitcher put under a fraction of the big-game pressure Strasburg faced.

Come on, man.
You probably don't reside in Washington. Strasburg means so much to this franchise, and to a market where you'd have to be a senior citizen to have personally experienced a pennant race firsthand. Not a World Series title, like the Cubs, Indians or Giants; we're referring merely to significant September games. That's three generations of the lowest rung of futility; markets such as Philadelphia and Boston had similar droughts of one generation, Cleveland two. Is it any wonder the interest in the Nats has been so low?

Strasburg was seen as the way for Washington to emerge from baseball hell, and now this happens, setting back the franchise another year or two if he returns at full capacity (and there's no guarantee of that). The D.C. baseball fan has every right to feel depressed.
   6. Justin 'The Cespedobear' T Posted: August 28, 2010 at 01:35 PM (#3628547)
Which has what to do with his statement?
   7. Fly, the most judgment-free human being on Earth Posted: August 28, 2010 at 01:39 PM (#3628549)
Really. David Clyde, Fernando, Gooden, just to name three I thought of in all of 5 seconds. Ben McDonald.

David Clyde? You're kidding, right? He was a nobody pitcher for a nobody team in a nowhere city in 1973. He only existed for 2 weeks before his debut.

Meanwhile, Stephen Strasburg's debut was nicknamed Strasmas. He has been covered nonstop by 3 national television networks. ESPN probably briefly considered ESPN:burg to televise his games. The kid's MINOR LEAGUE games were nationally televised, in order to hype up his debut.

David Clyde was put under more physical pressure, but surely nowhere near as much celebrity pressure.
   8. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 28, 2010 at 01:48 PM (#3628556)
Well, Boswell didn't say anything about "celebrity pressure." Or "physical pressure" for that matter. He said "big-game pressure." That seems a bit odd to me, since we usually think of the term as referring to the importance of the game in the context of a pennant race, playoff series, etc. Strasburg's starts were big because Strasburg was pitching, but that's a different matter. I'm not suggesting that all of the hype didn't put pressure on the kid, but "big-game pressure" is a strange way of saying "hype."
   9. McCoy Posted: August 28, 2010 at 02:23 PM (#3628569)
Go figure. Fans of a baseball team thinking their team is special and vtheir situation is unique.
   10. ChuckO Posted: August 28, 2010 at 02:30 PM (#3628572)
It's difficult to know how to handle young pitchers, because it's impossible to know much damage was done to their arms before they even signed professional contracts. If a pitcher is good enough to make the majors, or even come close, he was very likely a stud when of high school age. That being the case, it's quite possible that he was overused and could have sustained some damage to his arm. However, it's impossible to know whether this is the case or not.

Another factor in Strasburg's case is the dreaded "inverted W" in his mechanics, which many pitching gurus maintain predisposes a pitcher to arm problems. I'm no expert and don't know how much credence to give that, but there were those who predicted problems for him on that basis.
   11. AROM Posted: August 28, 2010 at 03:20 PM (#3628593)
A run-and-gun QB, for example, will throw perhaps 600 passes in 16 NFL games, with some of them being relatively soft, "touch" passes.


I've occasionally seen an NFL broadcast where they measure the throw of the QB, and then somehow convert it to "baseball equivalent velocity". What a joke. The QB is try to throw a ball so it can be caught. A pitcher is throwing hard to avoid contact.

The closest equivalent is throwing a quick pass through defenders to a receiver, but that is a small fraction of what QB's do.
   12. zachtoma Posted: August 28, 2010 at 04:32 PM (#3628635)
I've occasionally seen an NFL broadcast where they measure the throw of the QB, and then somehow convert it to "baseball equivalent velocity". What a joke. The QB is try to throw a ball so it can be caught. A pitcher is throwing hard to avoid contact.

The closest equivalent is throwing a quick pass through defenders to a receiver, but that is a small fraction of what QB's do.


I do wonder how fast John Elway could throw a baseball. There never was, and hasn't been, another arm like his in the NFL, and there are anecdotes about him training by standing at home plate at the Stanford field and tossing baseballs over the centerfield fence. Think he could have cranked up a 100 mph fastball if he worked at it?
   13. McCoy Posted: August 28, 2010 at 04:41 PM (#3628642)
I guess it depends on how one defines "arm" but I would say that Vince Evans had the strongest and fastest arm of the last 30 or 40 years.
   14. eric Posted: August 28, 2010 at 05:18 PM (#3628658)

I do wonder how fast John Elway could throw a baseball. There never was, and hasn't been, another arm like his in the NFL, and there are anecdotes about him training by standing at home plate at the Stanford field and tossing baseballs over the centerfield fence. Think he could have cranked up a 100 mph fastball if he worked at it?


he apparently was a pitcher at stanford according to wikipedia:

Elway also excelled as a baseball player playing right field and pitcher, finishing his senior year hitting .361 with nine home runs and 50 RBIs in 49 games and a 5–4 record with a 4.51 ERA


That college ERA makes me suspect he wasn't throwing 100mph. He played briefly in the minors, but as an outfielder.
   15. puck Posted: August 28, 2010 at 05:21 PM (#3628659)
I remember Doug Williams as having a gun, too, but that was a long time ago. Though I found Marino and Jeff George's deliveries more impressive than the guys with the raw power.
   16. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: August 28, 2010 at 05:25 PM (#3628660)
Question: If we mandated that pitchers throw underhand, but moved the rubber back to 50 feet from the plate, would that promote or inhibit hitting (after everyone adjusted, of course)? How would it affect the game today?
   17. McCoy Posted: August 28, 2010 at 05:27 PM (#3628661)
Isn't fast pitch softball at high levels pretty low scoring games?
   18. eric Posted: August 28, 2010 at 05:31 PM (#3628664)
I think in women's softball the mound is 40ft from the plate. That's why when a pitcher throws at 70MPH there she's practically untouchable because the ball reaches the plate about as quickly as a 105MPH fastball would in MLB.

I wonder how fast top male athletes could throw a baseball underhand? At 50ft they'd have to reach about 83MPH for a 100MPH equivalent.
   19. Moneyball can't buy you love (Joey B.) Posted: August 28, 2010 at 05:52 PM (#3628677)
I never saw him play, but I'm told by some of the older guys that Greg Cook had an arm as good as Elway's before he was ruined by injuries.
   20. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: August 28, 2010 at 05:57 PM (#3628679)
I think in women's softball the mound is 40ft from the plate. That's why when a pitcher throws at 70MPH there she's practically untouchable because the ball reaches the plate about as quickly as a 105MPH fastball would in MLB.

When I was in high school I used to get a friend of mine with a very good arm to pitch to me from a Little League mound. Before too long there wasn't a pitcher this side of Koufax who could throw a straight fast ball by me. It's a great workout for those who don't have access to pitching machines or year around competition.

Of course the curve balls and the changeups were another matter, but that's why I'm not writing this from my retirement villa in the French Riviera.
   21. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 28, 2010 at 06:21 PM (#3628689)
In women's softball, the front of the pitching rubber is 43 feet from the back of home plate. In men's fast pitch leagues, it's usually 50 feet. Little league baseball is 46 feet.

EDIT: of course I should add that a softball-style delivery would be illegal in baseball, just in case anyone wasn't aware of that fact.

When I was in high school I used to get a friend of mine with a very good arm to pitch to me from a Little League mound.

When I throw BP, it's usually from 40 feet since any day when I'm breaking 60 mph any more is a very good day indeed. Behind an L-screen of course.
   22. NotLikely20 Posted: August 28, 2010 at 07:32 PM (#3628726)
It's a terrible loss, and he may never fully recover, as a pitcher, every single one of 'em
(well, there are a few exceptions like Moyer and in all likelyhood Buehrle), only has so many bullets. The hype was a bit over-blown, imo, but for good reason, as MLB needed to do something to create fans for the Nationals. Completely understandable, if my job was propaganda master/PR man, I'd have done the exact same thing with a talented kid like SS...given the situation in Washington. But pressure? Not really, the team wasn't going to win anything, and the kid has dealt with reporters and hype for 2 years now...all young prospects with high expectations go through the exact same thing, albeit with less cameras/reporters in their face after a game.

The novelty, however, was starting to wear off. In Washington, sure, he was still a good draw, and fans of other teams were lining up to buy tickets to see the rookie, but after the first few starts, they weren't seeing anything mind-blowing(such is baseball), so the hype machine and the people behind it were moving on to someone else. His stats were excellent for a rookie...not dominant/MVP/CY, which a causal fan might expect given the hype in June and early to mid July, but he more than lived up to the realistic expectations placed upon him, just like Mark Prior among a few others have in the past.

I hope fans of the game get a chance to witness "prime" SS, although I think we may have got a glimpse of the best "stuff" the kid will ever have...again...such is life as a young flamethrower. SS should have a long talk with Kerry Wood, as both were thrown into the hype machine(deservedly so for both), and Wood can certainly provide SS with the kind of advice an agent or coach can not. Just like when I saw Wood's "stuff"(especially his sick curveball) and Prior to a slightly lesser extent(among other pitching phenoms, but these 3 stick out the most in terms of a dominant/sick/insane curveball that had future arm problem written all over it. I'm just happy I got a chance to see SS at what may turn out to be his absolute best. Time will tell, but with pitcher and the human arm? He will need a bit of luck...get well soon kid...the Nationals franchise needs you...
   23. Athletic Supporter leads the nation in drifters Posted: August 28, 2010 at 07:58 PM (#3628741)
It's a terrible loss, and he may never fully recover, as a pitcher, every single one of 'em (well, there are a few exceptions like Moyer and in all likelyhood Buehrle), only has so many bullets.


I wouldn't call what Moyer is throwing "bullets." Also, I'm pretty sure he started his career before the invention of the bullet.
   24. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: August 28, 2010 at 07:58 PM (#3628742)
Good thing they didn't buy into the irrational exuberance and let him throw an inning in the All-Star Game. That would have been ridiculous, and Strasburg's certain to make plenty of All-Star squads in the future.
   25. TerpNats Posted: August 28, 2010 at 08:18 PM (#3628751)
Good thing they didn't buy into the irrational exuberance and let him throw an inning in the All-Star Game. That would have been ridiculous, and Strasburg's certain to make plenty of All-Star squads in the future.
Just being able to make one now would be an achievement.
   26. frannyzoo Posted: August 28, 2010 at 08:49 PM (#3628762)
...Strasburg's certain to make plenty of All-Star squads in the future.


I'm taking the under unless the line is set at .50

Maybe it's my innate pessimism, but there's just so much that can go Prior (i.e., wrong) now.
   27. Kiko Sakata Posted: August 28, 2010 at 08:50 PM (#3628764)
You probably don't reside in Washington.


And you and Boswell probably didn't reside in Chicago in 2002 and 2003 (Mark Prior) or in the Dallas metro area in 1973 (David Clyde).

David Clyde? You're kidding, right?


David Clyde's first two starts came during a 14-game homestand for the Rangers that included a 4-game weekend series (doubleheader on Saturday) that drew 25,722 fans total, and a July 4th doubleheader that drew 13,362 fans.

David Clyde's debut was on a Wednesday and drew 35,698 fans.
His second game was on a Monday and drew 33,010 fans.

His two appearances accounted for over half of the Rangers' attendance in those two weeks. David Clyde was supposed to be the savior of that "nobody team".
   28. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: August 28, 2010 at 09:03 PM (#3628772)
The QB is try to throw a ball so it can be caught.


I take it you never watched Bert Jones play. That didn't seem to be a major concern of his.

I wasn't around for Clyde, but as an outsider for all of the rest, no phenom's start (Prior, McDonald, Fernando, Gooden) was anywhere near the level of interest/hype as Strasburg's. I'd question the use of big game (John Lackey jumps to mind in that category), but I'd elevate his debut over the rest I've seen from afar.
   29. frannyzoo Posted: August 28, 2010 at 09:28 PM (#3628780)
I can attest to the David Clyde mania. I wasn't at the game, but listening to it you'd have thought Prince Charles was marrying Bob Lilly. Or something like that. It was a big deal, and what was more important is that it was seen as an essential event in cementing the Rangers in DFW.

And then it didn't work out, and the Rangers weren't cemented, seriously, in DFW for quite some time. For instance, they played in a not-so-glorified minor league ballpark for years and years.
   30. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Molina Posted: August 28, 2010 at 09:39 PM (#3628786)
Has a study ever been done that measures the injury rate for hard throwers versus "soft tossers"? It would have to be measured by era, I think, as pitchers who threw 90+ were less common 20 years ago than they are now.

Would a GM be justified in drafting a 86-88 pitcher who gets outs over a 96-98 who spectacularly gets outs?
   31. Justin 'The Cespedobear' T Posted: August 28, 2010 at 09:48 PM (#3628792)
Of course. But Joe Blanton doesn't get many outs.
   32. JeffersJV Posted: August 28, 2010 at 10:06 PM (#3628797)
Concerning focusing on guys who don't throw as hard but get outs over flamethrowers who get those outs a little more spectacularly, just finding guys who have a legit shot at getting MLB players out on a regular basis seems to be difficult enough. I can't say I'd want my team limiting themselves like that, even if the idea worked in theory.
   33. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: August 28, 2010 at 10:14 PM (#3628802)
Isn't the idea that soft-tossers don't last as long even if they get outs/have high strikeout rates because when they lose an mph or two off their fastballs, it hurts their effectiveness more than when hard throwers do?
   34. TerpNats Posted: August 29, 2010 at 12:26 AM (#3628890)
I have a good friend of mine in the Metroplex, and David Clyde's first start was the first major league game she ever attended. Didn't go to another one until the late '80s (and now goes to Rangers Ballpark a few times a year, even though she lives over in Mesquite, a bit of a haul from Arlington).
   35. spike Posted: August 29, 2010 at 12:33 AM (#3628895)
Would a GM be justified in drafting a 86-88 pitcher who gets outs over a 96-98 who spectacularly gets outs?

Mike Minor?

/edit - things have changed since the draft of course, and it certainly isn't an exact match, but Minor was drafted ahead of some projected power arms.
   36. MSalfino Posted: August 29, 2010 at 04:47 AM (#3628988)
Bert Jones actually did hurt his arm. One of the best football arms ever from pure throwing strength was Testaverde's.
   37. Ron Johnson Posted: August 30, 2010 at 01:37 PM (#3629703)
That didn't seem to be a major concern of his.


And before Jones you had Jack Kemp and the "Kemp Crosses". Supposedly threw so hard that the tip of the ball left a little cross if it didn't hit padding.
   38. Ron Johnson Posted: August 30, 2010 at 01:45 PM (#3629713)
Has a study ever been done that measures the injury rate for hard throwers versus "soft tossers"?


Not directly. But this is indirectly covered in K rate (yes there are pitchers who get their Ks through deception -- Sid Fernandez for instance and there are guys who throw hard but don't pile up a lot of Ks. Still it's not a bad proxy for velocity)

And the one thing that's really clear about pitchers is that all other things being equal K rate predicts longevity better than anything else. This is true of old pitcher, extreme power pitchers, finesse pitchers -- any grouping of pitchers Bill James (confirmed by other studies) could think of.

Gary Huckabay (who blew his arm out in semi-pro) had a theory as to why. In general the guys with lesser stuff have to go to their maximum effort with greater frequency.
   39. Sunday silence Posted: September 01, 2010 at 04:45 AM (#3631453)
You really had to have seen Joe Gilliam throw the ball for the Steelers circa 1974. His throws seemed to distort what you thought you were seeing. Like he'd throw an out pattern that was far longer than you'd ever seen. Or he'd hit a guy in stride on a fly pattern that was stretched the field out so long. You just started seeing the ball coming in at all these weird angles in strange places on the field. I never saw anything like it, but I was just a kid. Still maybe there is some youtube on him.
   40. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: September 01, 2010 at 04:50 AM (#3631457)
I still can't believe I heard this, but the radio reception was clear: On the midnight baseball roundup, or maybe just before midnight, the ESPN announcer said that on Friday Stephen Strasburg was going in for Tommy John surgery---on his ankle. That may have been the dumbest thing I've ever heard on any sports show in my entire lifetime.

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