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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Big Game, Big Spot, Big Snap.
Add me to that camp. I don’t think the Nats brought him along too fast or slow. I don’t think his pitch limit or innings load was a mistake. It’s all an educated guess. I don’t even think Strasburg’s improved “circle change-up” this season, which acts akin to a screwball, created the problem, though the pitch can cause pronation of the elbow that strains the ligament that got torn. It all depends how you throw the circle change. For decades, it was also called “the window-shade change” because you pulled straight down, like closing a shade, causing little elbow strain.
With hindsight, the easy second-guess is that the Nats should have shut Strasburg down for the season after he went on the disabled list with shoulder stiffness last month. Not because his shoulder hurt, but because favoring discomfort in one part of the arm sometimes causes injury elsewhere. File under: It seemed like a good idea at the time.
My contribution to the causal guessing game comes from direct observation. I’ve never seen a young pitcher put under a fraction of the big-game pressure Strasburg faced. It’s nobody’s fault. But I think it helped snap an elbow.
Repoz
Posted: August 28, 2010 at 11:33 AM | 40 comment(s)
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1. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: August 28, 2010 at 12:39 PM (#3628525)When I think about the strain pitching generally puts on your elbow and shoulder, my two thoughts are:
1) I don't understand why there aren't more sidearm or submarine pitchers - that is a far more natural motion.
2) This reminds us that a league-average pitcher who is able to stay healthy every year, and pitch lots of league-average innings, does have meaningful value. You're welcome, Livan Hernandez.
Come on, man.
Really. David Clyde, Fernando, Gooden, just to name three I thought of in all of 5 seconds. Ben McDonald.
a) Despite supposedly being more natural, these deliveries are much more difficult to master.
b) Although a low sidearm or submarine delivery puts less stress on the shoulder, the forces applied to the elbow are essentially the same as with an overhand motion.
Strasburg was seen as the way for Washington to emerge from baseball hell, and now this happens, setting back the franchise another year or two if he returns at full capacity (and there's no guarantee of that). The D.C. baseball fan has every right to feel depressed.
David Clyde? You're kidding, right? He was a nobody pitcher for a nobody team in a nowhere city in 1973. He only existed for 2 weeks before his debut.
Meanwhile, Stephen Strasburg's debut was nicknamed Strasmas. He has been covered nonstop by 3 national television networks. ESPN probably briefly considered ESPN:burg to televise his games. The kid's MINOR LEAGUE games were nationally televised, in order to hype up his debut.
David Clyde was put under more physical pressure, but surely nowhere near as much celebrity pressure.
Another factor in Strasburg's case is the dreaded "inverted W" in his mechanics, which many pitching gurus maintain predisposes a pitcher to arm problems. I'm no expert and don't know how much credence to give that, but there were those who predicted problems for him on that basis.
I've occasionally seen an NFL broadcast where they measure the throw of the QB, and then somehow convert it to "baseball equivalent velocity". What a joke. The QB is try to throw a ball so it can be caught. A pitcher is throwing hard to avoid contact.
The closest equivalent is throwing a quick pass through defenders to a receiver, but that is a small fraction of what QB's do.
I do wonder how fast John Elway could throw a baseball. There never was, and hasn't been, another arm like his in the NFL, and there are anecdotes about him training by standing at home plate at the Stanford field and tossing baseballs over the centerfield fence. Think he could have cranked up a 100 mph fastball if he worked at it?
he apparently was a pitcher at stanford according to wikipedia:
That college ERA makes me suspect he wasn't throwing 100mph. He played briefly in the minors, but as an outfielder.
I wonder how fast top male athletes could throw a baseball underhand? At 50ft they'd have to reach about 83MPH for a 100MPH equivalent.
When I was in high school I used to get a friend of mine with a very good arm to pitch to me from a Little League mound. Before too long there wasn't a pitcher this side of Koufax who could throw a straight fast ball by me. It's a great workout for those who don't have access to pitching machines or year around competition.
Of course the curve balls and the changeups were another matter, but that's why I'm not writing this from my retirement villa in the French Riviera.
EDIT: of course I should add that a softball-style delivery would be illegal in baseball, just in case anyone wasn't aware of that fact.
When I was in high school I used to get a friend of mine with a very good arm to pitch to me from a Little League mound.
When I throw BP, it's usually from 40 feet since any day when I'm breaking 60 mph any more is a very good day indeed. Behind an L-screen of course.
(well, there are a few exceptions like Moyer and in all likelyhood Buehrle), only has so many bullets. The hype was a bit over-blown, imo, but for good reason, as MLB needed to do something to create fans for the Nationals. Completely understandable, if my job was propaganda master/PR man, I'd have done the exact same thing with a talented kid like SS...given the situation in Washington. But pressure? Not really, the team wasn't going to win anything, and the kid has dealt with reporters and hype for 2 years now...all young prospects with high expectations go through the exact same thing, albeit with less cameras/reporters in their face after a game.
The novelty, however, was starting to wear off. In Washington, sure, he was still a good draw, and fans of other teams were lining up to buy tickets to see the rookie, but after the first few starts, they weren't seeing anything mind-blowing(such is baseball), so the hype machine and the people behind it were moving on to someone else. His stats were excellent for a rookie...not dominant/MVP/CY, which a causal fan might expect given the hype in June and early to mid July, but he more than lived up to the realistic expectations placed upon him, just like Mark Prior among a few others have in the past.
I hope fans of the game get a chance to witness "prime" SS, although I think we may have got a glimpse of the best "stuff" the kid will ever have...again...such is life as a young flamethrower. SS should have a long talk with Kerry Wood, as both were thrown into the hype machine(deservedly so for both), and Wood can certainly provide SS with the kind of advice an agent or coach can not. Just like when I saw Wood's "stuff"(especially his sick curveball) and Prior to a slightly lesser extent(among other pitching phenoms, but these 3 stick out the most in terms of a dominant/sick/insane curveball that had future arm problem written all over it. I'm just happy I got a chance to see SS at what may turn out to be his absolute best. Time will tell, but with pitcher and the human arm? He will need a bit of luck...get well soon kid...the Nationals franchise needs you...
I wouldn't call what Moyer is throwing "bullets." Also, I'm pretty sure he started his career before the invention of the bullet.
I'm taking the under unless the line is set at .50
Maybe it's my innate pessimism, but there's just so much that can go Prior (i.e., wrong) now.
And you and Boswell probably didn't reside in Chicago in 2002 and 2003 (Mark Prior) or in the Dallas metro area in 1973 (David Clyde).
David Clyde's first two starts came during a 14-game homestand for the Rangers that included a 4-game weekend series (doubleheader on Saturday) that drew 25,722 fans total, and a July 4th doubleheader that drew 13,362 fans.
David Clyde's debut was on a Wednesday and drew 35,698 fans.
His second game was on a Monday and drew 33,010 fans.
His two appearances accounted for over half of the Rangers' attendance in those two weeks. David Clyde was supposed to be the savior of that "nobody team".
I take it you never watched Bert Jones play. That didn't seem to be a major concern of his.
I wasn't around for Clyde, but as an outsider for all of the rest, no phenom's start (Prior, McDonald, Fernando, Gooden) was anywhere near the level of interest/hype as Strasburg's. I'd question the use of big game (John Lackey jumps to mind in that category), but I'd elevate his debut over the rest I've seen from afar.
And then it didn't work out, and the Rangers weren't cemented, seriously, in DFW for quite some time. For instance, they played in a not-so-glorified minor league ballpark for years and years.
Would a GM be justified in drafting a 86-88 pitcher who gets outs over a 96-98 who spectacularly gets outs?
Mike Minor?
/edit - things have changed since the draft of course, and it certainly isn't an exact match, but Minor was drafted ahead of some projected power arms.
And before Jones you had Jack Kemp and the "Kemp Crosses". Supposedly threw so hard that the tip of the ball left a little cross if it didn't hit padding.
Not directly. But this is indirectly covered in K rate (yes there are pitchers who get their Ks through deception -- Sid Fernandez for instance and there are guys who throw hard but don't pile up a lot of Ks. Still it's not a bad proxy for velocity)
And the one thing that's really clear about pitchers is that all other things being equal K rate predicts longevity better than anything else. This is true of old pitcher, extreme power pitchers, finesse pitchers -- any grouping of pitchers Bill James (confirmed by other studies) could think of.
Gary Huckabay (who blew his arm out in semi-pro) had a theory as to why. In general the guys with lesser stuff have to go to their maximum effort with greater frequency.
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