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1. Leroy Kincaid Posted: September 09, 2010 at 11:18 AM (#3636704)Right now, McGwire is at number 10 with 583. Seeing this is newspeak, and we are talking "honest". I am assuming that we can eliminate Arod, Bonds, Mac, Sosa, Manny Ramirez, and Palmeiro, he would still need to beat Mike Schmidt, who has 548. I wouldn't make book on that. I don't think he will get to 500. If he does, it will be on fumes.
It usually ain't the stat guys who make those classic moves for perceived better defense (anyone remember Johnnie LeMatser going to Cleveland, bumpong Tony Bernazard out fo a job for a bit?) while sacrificing RUNS on the scoreboard.
Seriously? You're tying the Red Sox's struggles to a miscalculation of philosophy rather than an unbelievable host of injuries to to their top players? I hope you know that they've scored the second most runs and would be in the playoffs if playoff berths weren't awarded to division winners.
You know, I like Adam Dunn, but all of this assuming that player X is clean is getting to annoy me just as much as assuming that player Y is dirty.
OTOH, I suppose Dunn would run faster if he was using steroids. After all, sprinters take them.
It wasn't "the stat guys". It was "the idiots who have too much confidence in defensive statistics". There's a distinction to be made.
And while a Dunn fan, I completely understand an organization thinking long and hard about investing several years in Adam. He has all the traits of a player designed to decline rapidly in his early 30's. For him to sustain his current output would defy much of history. Can he do it? Certainly. But..................
But, traditionally, the sabermetric position is that given the choice between a flashy fielder who might not beat league-average with the bat, and an OBPing slugger with hands of stone, take the slugger.
It used to be it was the scouty types who criticized the lack of interest by stat guys in fielding.
You mean Nyjer Morgan isn't as good as Adamd Dunn?
But, traditionally, the sabermetric position is that given the choice between a flashy fielder who might not beat league-average with the bat, and an OBPing slugger with hands of stone, take the slugger.
That's certainly my position. I'll take the thing I can measure with confidence.
The long-term success of the Yankees with alleged butchers Jeter and Posada and key defensive positions has greatly confirmed my initial instincts on this one.
That's close to true when Dunn was playing the outfield. At first base, well, he's still a terrible defender, but the damage he can do is minimized. His biggest weakness is immobility, and 1B don't have to move all that much.
Range: blah. He's not very mobile.
Hands: blah. About one in ten plays, a ball will just sorta go through him or past him. He's not very smart about coming off the bag to take wild throws either.
Target: this is his strength. Though he has issues with knowing when to come off, in general, he's a massive target. Zimmerman (who has a problem with those easy, routine 5-3 plays) seems to like throwing to him. If I weren't lazy, I'd check for a breakdown of Zimmerman throwing errors; I'd guess he's down a few.
I'm lukewarm as to whether the Nats should sign him. Considering his age, the relative ease of filling that position, his defense, and the potential for a cliff, it's a reasonable move.
On the other hand, switching to Carlos Pena (the name that keeps coming up) doesn't solve most of those problems.
There is a decision to be made regarding Dunn, but it's based more on his career projection than on his defense.
With Strasburg out and Harper just getting started in the minors, it does not look like a year of contention for the Nats next year, whether Dunn comes back or not. I'd hate to see him go (especially working in the city and having an Adam Dunn bobblehead as a Louisville Riverbat sitting on my desk), but I understand the business decision.
(hope formatting comes out all right)
Year Age Team OPSRocky Colavito 1964 30 KCA 0.873
Ken Griffey,Jr 2000 30 CIN 0.943
Jeromy Burnitz 1999 30 MIL 0.963
Jayson Werth 2009 30 PHI 0.879
Jason Bay 2009 30 BOS 0.921
Bobby Bonilla 1993 30 NYM 0.874
Richie Sexson 2005 30 SEA 0.910
Mickey Tettleton 1991 30 DET 0.878
Go back a few Boz columns, and he mentioned they were talking 3/$39 for Dunn. Now, were they to do that, that final year would be the only true year of (likely) contention, given SS's injury.
That other 26 would be wasted. If they could get someone generic (say, LaRoche) for 1/4 of that, they'd be better off. Throw that extra dough at Crawford or someone, and they'd still be better off come 2013.
He's basically changed into more of a contact hitter. He's not looking to walk as much as he was before, so much as looking for one good pitch. They're sort of the same sides of the coin, but one's a slightly more aggressive approach.
He's been much more cognizant of hitting for average and putting the ball in play (even if damn hard!). Is he able to sustain that? If so, does that bode well for his future?
I'm thinking of Soriano's time in DC. He was a different player here. He must've meshed really well with Mitch Page (then the hitting coach), because he really was MUCH more selective during his ABs. Having watched him as a Yankee, it was night and day at times with him. Of course the second he leaves DC (or Page got drunk) it all went to hell. Will the same happen to Dunn?
He is, of course, assuming the Nationals can get one of those first basemen -- again ignoring the Nats are still perceived as a place of last resort for a free agent, and will remain that way until they become a contender (2013?). Letting Dunn go likely means the Nats will have to take the leftovers after the usual suspects pick up the prime prospects.
Is it fair to compare Dunn to a guy like Sexson or other lumbering sluggers? Despite his horrific defense, he's a fairly athletic guy.
Dunn has an outside chance of joining the 40-40 club (doubles/HR) for the first time...is this and his 15 point BA raise enough to offset his being down 25-30 walks?
This sounded like AROM was referencing the bad contract more so than the similarity. But other than being tall and striking out a lot, I dont see the comparison. Sexson was tall, lanky, and had an extremely awkward swing. He also didnt have anywhere near the patience that Dunn has.
I wonder if all this reflexive "he's a big unathletic slugger, he's going to decline quickly" is a bit misplaced for a guy who really doesnt fit the Mo Vaughn mold. Certainly, Dunn's paitience will age well. I could see Dunn easily having a late career similar to Frank Thomas or Jim Thome.
To me the question for the Nats isnt about his defense, its can they spend the $15M or so it would take to keep him more efficiently elsewhere? They're a long shot to compete in 2011 with Dunn, but he certainly could be an important piece of a 2012 or 2013 run.
Richie Sexson was supertall, but didn't carry around much fat on him. Dunn is supertall and has some extra poundage. Not as fat as Moo Vaughn though. Dunn has never been a nut for conditioning, and as a rule those types of players drop off quite a bit, often just in the playing time category, as they find things that came easy in their 20s do not last into their 30s without great effort.
Frank Thomas is one of the better cases (also a much better all around hitter than Dunn in his peak), but after age 30, would you really want to have committed a multiyear contract to him? Frank had 3 great and healthy years after 30, 2000, 2003, and 2006. Every 3 years he was great, the others he was hurt or a disappointment, or both.
Why should the Nationals need to save money on one contract to apply it to another? They are not poor. There is enough money to sign Dunn and Crawford if they can. Their payroll is not excessive.
When you have an established star who wants to stay on your team, the best baseball practice is to resign him. Sometimes you are stuck with an overpriced guy like the Rockies 1b situation where you overpaid him to stay but sometimes another team will take such a player off your hands off your hands near the bad end of the contract, like Atlanta with Lee and the Yanks with Berkman.
Would 3/24 get it done? I think that'd be a reasonable offer.
I'd personally like him to stay in DC.
Not a chance in hell that gets it done, nor would it be a reasonable offer.
He's also assuming that Pujols' 2011 option doesn't get picked up, which is about as likely as me pitching in MLB next season.
EDIT: And yes, I'm sure the contract will be terrible. It ain't my money.
Remember when Sheffield had to play 3rd for the Yankees after Jeter smashed his face diving into the stands? Only a few innings, but I think he made 2 errors. Awesome.
I'm fully aware that the Sox main problem has been injuries. But as a Yankee fan I couldn't help but take a shot at them. It's like a mild form of tourette's.
It wasn't "the stat guys". It was "the idiots who have too much confidence in defensive statistics". There's a distinction to be made.
I'll buy that.
One inning, one error. Throwing, in case anyone's wondering. He played an errorless inning at third a couple of months later. Of course, he didn't have any chances in that game.
Plus, the injuries made the defense pretty ####### awful.
This is the worst hypothetical world ever.
Jim Hickman - 3rd Base
Amos Otis - 3rd Base
Dave Kingman - 3rd Base
It should be mentioned, in all fairness, that other MLB teams besides the Mets also thought playing Hickman and Kingman at thirdbase was a viable concept.
DB
-- MWE
And Mets fans want to get *rid* of David Wright? If I were a Mets fan, I'd build a shrine to him.
And Pujols is not a free agent this off-season.
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