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Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Bourjos says he would like 40 stolen bases

Yeah, and I’d like “40 Steps of Revenge” on DVD.

New Cardinals outfielder Peter Bourjos said he didn’t expect to be designated a regular just yet but he had a lofty goal if he received significant playing time this season.

“I’d like to be in the 40s,” said Bourjos, referring to his potential stolen-base total as he was interviewed at the Cardinals’ Winter Warm-Up, which wrapped up Monday.

“It’s all about how you’re swinging the bat,” said Bourjos. “In the minor leagues, I had a season where I stole 50 bags and I had a lot of seasons where I was in the 30s. So, in the 30-to-40 range would be nice.”

...Given his lack of use by the Angels the last couple of years, Bourjos said he wasn’t at all surprised to be dealt.

“Things haven’t gone well the last couple of years there. I didn’t think I was going to stick around much longer,” he said.

Bourjos has the speed associated with a leadoff man but not necessarily the on-base percentage. For instance, he walked only 10 times in 175 at-bats last year.

“I’ve never walked, so I can’t really say I’m an on-base guy,” Bourjos said. “I think I’m more of a gap-to-gap guy. I don’t inherently draw a lot of walks.

“I don’t go up trying to walk because I don’t think it’s one of my strengths.”

Repoz Posted: January 21, 2014 at 06:54 AM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, cardinals

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   1. depletion Posted: January 21, 2014 at 08:01 AM (#4643000)
Get some bitcoins. Silk Road is closed, however.
   2. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: January 21, 2014 at 08:22 AM (#4643001)
In the minor leagues, I had a season where I stole 50 bags and I had a lot of seasons where I was in the 30s.


Well, one anyway.
   3. salvomania Posted: January 21, 2014 at 09:09 AM (#4643012)
Nevermind---I was looking at RBI, not steals.
   4. WillYoung Posted: January 21, 2014 at 09:12 AM (#4643016)
If Peter Bourjos played the Twins daily, he would hit 50 homeruns in a season.
   5. Rough Carrigan Posted: January 21, 2014 at 09:45 AM (#4643032)
Am I the only who reads him say "I don't go up trying to walk . . " and thinks that maybe he doesn't understand the approach that guys who DO walk take to the plate?
   6. donlock Posted: January 21, 2014 at 11:12 AM (#4643125)
Well, he does say
I don’t inherently draw a lot of walks.
Other than Eddie Gaedel, this is true for most hitters.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 21, 2014 at 11:47 AM (#4643171)
How bout concentrating on staying healthy for 162 games first.
   8. Matt Welch Posted: January 21, 2014 at 12:12 PM (#4643202)
Bourjos might be the fastest home-to-home runner in the history of baseball, but he's weirdly not super adept at stealing second base. Gets bad jumps.
   9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 21, 2014 at 12:21 PM (#4643212)
Bourjos might be the fastest home-to-home runner in the history of baseball, but he's weirdly not super adept at stealing second base. Gets bad jumps.


I remember every time the Royals played the Tigers, Denny Matthews would say that about Chet Lemon. "He may be the fastest man in baseball who is the worst at stealing bases."
   10. jmurph Posted: January 21, 2014 at 12:26 PM (#4643220)
Nyjer Morgan is/was another fast guy with bad CS numbers.
   11. cardsfanboy Posted: January 21, 2014 at 12:52 PM (#4643255)
I'm trying to figure out how much playing time he'll get, the plus defense but the inferior bat to Jay is going to lead to interesting decisions for Matheny. Jay is an average to slightly above average defender(regardless of the numbers last year) but of course Bourjos is an elite defender, and maybe a fully healthy season he could repeat his career offensive year (where he basically put up Jay like performance)

Still nice trouble to have a right handed hitting gold glove quality centerfielder with plus speed and a real chance to put up a weak obp 100 ops+ or a left handed hitting, average defensive centerfielder, with a stronger bat, better obp animal and likely to put up a 110 ops+
   12. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: January 21, 2014 at 01:42 PM (#4643332)
/golfclap for the silk road ref
   13. TDF, situational idiot Posted: January 21, 2014 at 02:03 PM (#4643352)
Bourjos might be the fastest home-to-home runner in the history of baseball
Maybe once, but since 2012 there's been a new sheriff in town.


   14. LionoftheSenate (Brewers v A's World Series) Posted: January 21, 2014 at 02:57 PM (#4643411)
Deion Sanders wasn't a great SB guy either. Had better bb and contect skills to my memory.
   15. Curse of the Andino Posted: January 21, 2014 at 05:57 PM (#4643627)
Silk Road is closed, however.


TPB's got nothing.
   16. bjhanke Posted: January 22, 2014 at 03:58 AM (#4643888)
I read this article in the STL newspaper, and when I read the section about walks, my opinion of Bourjos just cratered. He doesn't do anything, or everything else, well enough to away with a lousy OBP fueled by not taking walks. The Cardinals may have to bring up Oscar Taveras sooner than then think. My current opinion is that they are currently in need of a center fielder. - Brock Hanke
   17. vivaelpujols Posted: January 22, 2014 at 06:08 AM (#4643900)
Not very rational Brock. Bourjos has a career 96 wRC+ in over 1100 PA which means he's nearly an average hitter. He's also arguably the best defender in baseball in center. He's clearly a well above average player if he plays to his career numbers over a full season.

   18. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 22, 2014 at 11:21 AM (#4644071)
Not very rational Brock. Bourjos has a career 96 wRC+ in over 1100 PA which means he's nearly an average hitter.


Well, yes and no. Because he's a BA-reliant player who isn't actually a great hitter for average, he's prone to extremely high variance in his value. His blended stats (ie OPS+) are also SLG-heavy (again paradoxically, b/c he doesn't really have much power). He's fast, but he doesn't have the broad base of skills you look for in an "athletic" player who's going to age well: you really only want him playing for as long as he remains a plus defender, and that doesn't often last very long.

It's my opinion that Bourjos is basically overexposed in full-time play. He's valuable in a part-time role, as a glove caddy and occasional starter who is a pretty good backup plan if your starting CF goes down, but try to push him much beyond that and pitchers start challenging him with stuff he can't put a bat on. As a stopgap for a team that's waiting on a phenom like the Cardinals are, he's not too bad. But I wouldn't count on getting much from him long-term, and I would be prepared for the possibility that craps the bed this season.
   19. cardsfanboy Posted: January 22, 2014 at 01:11 PM (#4644244)
Not very rational Brock. Bourjos has a career 96 wRC+ in over 1100 PA which means he's nearly an average hitter. He's also arguably the best defender in baseball in center. He's clearly a well above average player if he plays to his career numbers over a full season.



We are looking at a guy who optimistically projects to put up roughly .270/.320/.400 line...With plus baserunning and elite defense. He's a league average centerfielder assuming he can make it through a full season, but he's not a plus, and I'm not really sure that he separates himself from Jay who should put up a .290/.350/400 while playing league average defense and running.


I disagree with Brock in that we have to get someone else soon. Both of these guys project to be league average centerfielders, just how they deliver that value is differently. Bourjos being a couple of years younger has room to grow. I fully expect Taveras to be on the roster by June, but there is no pressing need to bring him up earlier.
   20. TDF, situational idiot Posted: January 22, 2014 at 01:39 PM (#4644283)
Bourjos has a career 96 wRC+ in over 1100 PA which means he's nearly an average hitter.
By year:

2010: 65 wRC+
2011: 114
2012: 72
2013: 103

That's "average" like the old "one foot in a bucket of boiling water, one foot in an ice bucket" line.
   21. PreservedFish Posted: January 22, 2014 at 01:47 PM (#4644291)
Because he's a BA-reliant player who isn't actually a great hitter for average, he's prone to extremely high variance in his value.


I see this assertion constantly, but do we know if it's true?
   22. cardsfanboy Posted: January 22, 2014 at 02:05 PM (#4644319)
I see this assertion constantly, but do we know if it's true?


It used to be true, can't find anything supporting it nowadays, but I'm pretty sure that even in the Bill James days, that he found batting average to have a higher variance than other stats such as iso, or obp. (Nate Silver had an article on this) which talks more about regressing to the mean than consistency, but even in that article you can see more fluctuations with average than other stats.

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