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I have no idea what Towers is doing in Arizona these days, but I guess we'll see if he makes me look foolish.
It'll be interesting to see what effect playing together has on the Upton bros.
I think for him, it is and has always been "we strike out too much."
I don't know the Braves guys in this deal other than Prado, so I can't say it's a bad deal for AZ. But I certainly don't think much of the general notion that trading Justin Upton is the answer. The question is whether a flawed thought process ended up working out anyway due to circumstances (which does often happen).
And the Upton brothers will be playing together! That's pretty cool.
Prado is a FA at the end of the year.
Okay: WTF are you doing out there, Kevin Towers?
From a stat geek perspective, the prospect haul is really underwhelming but I'm guessing the scouts like those guys a lot better than their stats have been. Ahmed looks like a decent prospect from a statistical level I suppose, and the shortstop fetish continues apace.
For the Braves, that's quite an outfield they've assemble, I'm assuming Justin is the left fielder now? If they're counting on Chris Johnson as their everyday 3B, that seems like a rather stiff downgrade from Chipper and probably from Prado. Against a right handed pitcher, is he a better option than Francisco? Doesn't immediately look like it once the difference in gloves is factored in.
The brothers (and the whole family really) have to be very excited in any event.
Uggla at 3B has disaster written all over it. Or maybe catastrophe since he's already a disaster at 2B.
Sounds a lot like Trevor Bauer in a year or so.
Of course he does. But now we're doomed.
Are you serious?
EDIT: You are.
D'oh!
As a Braves' fan I'm not miffed with this package. Delgado is useful, the others aren't guys I see as compelling. Still, replacing Prado at 3B with Francisco/Johnson is likely an offensive downgrade and certainly a defensive downgrade. So, I'm not sure this improves them for 2013, but probably for 2014/15, if they figured they'd lose Prado.
J.Upton has a skill set that tends to be overrated, Prado is the reverse and I'm with Danny on Delgado. OTOH, there's the team aforementioned team control issues and Upton is the most valuable commodity in the deal.
i know it happens. don't like it
Combining the three high profile deals this winter the D-Backs have done the following;
Lost: Trevor Bauer, Justin Upton, Chris Young, Chris Johnson, Matt Albers, Bryan Shaw
Gained: Randall Delgado, Nick Ahmed, Didi Gregorious, Lars Anderson, Tony Sipp, Zeke Spruill, Martin Prado, Brandon Drury, Heath Bell and Cliff Pennington
If I'm a D-Backs fan I'm not thrilled with this collection.
J-up has a pretty good OBP. Go with something like: Justin, Heyward, Freeman, Uggla, Melvin, Francisco, Laird, Simmons.
Just wait until the rules change requiring a team to play with 3 shortstops.
It's possible the Braves will use some of their leftover money to pick up a starter.
EDIT: Coke to CFBF.
EDIT: why can I never keep my Braves pitchers straight? I'm thinking of Beachy obviously.
Justin: 9.75m this year, then 14.25, 14.5
Prado: somewhere around 6.85m
Johnson: 2.29m this year
ZiPS has Upton as a 3.4 WAR player - CAIRO has Upton at 2.9 oWAR, with a small positive bump for defense. ZiPS hasn't evaluated Prado yet - CAIRO has Prado at 1.0 WAR, but that's as a left fielder with a quarter less time than JU. Make their time equivalent, shift Prado to third (where he's good) or slot him as a utility guy (there's value in being good and versatile) - and Upton projects around a win over Prado.
Though there's certainty with Upton's contract, I'm not sure that there's much in the way in value over contract (which an org that is slowly sliding into lower middle-classdom like Atlanta is maybe a little more sensitive to).
I've never liked Johnson and can't claim to be impartial about him. He could be part of a ok hit / no field platoon, I suppose.
Yea, but who is out there? Kyle Lohse and Joe Saunders are really the only dependable guys left, and they have some warts too. After that its Carlos Zambrano, Dice-K, Oswalt, or bringin Jurrjens back.
I think the rotation is probably good enough to start the season with, and if one of the younger guys isn't up to snuff, they can make a trade then.
Guess that means it'll turn out badly for both, though I'm not sure how that could be true for the Braves. Maybe Upton'll get hurt?
Prado is a 3B, not a 2B. He can play 2B, but his value position is third.
/checks mail for Diamandbacks' contract offer...
Yes, it's those guys who make extra errors but have the best RF range in the league that are over-rated.
Or those low BA/good OBP guys.
Maybe it's slugging corner outfielders with plus base-running skills?
I know zilch about CAIRO, but this strikes me as odd. Prado is a 29-year-old coming off of a 5.4, with 15 bWAR over the past 4 seasons.
2007: 1
2008: 4
2009: 2
2010: 4
2011: 19
2012: 5
Probably roids.
Highly recommended, though I think on this one I MOSTLY agree with Cameron.
Honest question: Is there another analyst that values prospects as highly as Dave Cameron does?
Now the braves need a 3rd baseman.
Sheehan and Law are basically saying that having a player under contract does not help to sign him to an extension?
Wonder what it would take to pry Olt away from the Rangers at this point. He'd be a perfect fit for the Braves who now have a long-term hole at third, and he's obviously blocked in Texas for a while still.
Prado 3.3, upton 3.1, Delgado 1, Ahmed 1, Johnson .5, spruill .4
Issue here isn't about prospects (these aren't high level guys) - it's the value of prado and of $ (and risk preference with upton)
I personally would pay to see her run after fly balls, especially on the hot, humid, sweaty summer day games.
As an Astros' fan, I've seen a lot of Chris Johnson. Yes, he is a bad fielder. Makes lots of errors. He has decent tools for fielding, strong arm and decent speed, but he hasn't made the most of his skills. Problems usually involve bobbling the ball when he thinks he has to make the play quickly or overthrowing 1st base.
Chris Johnson is a streaky hitter, and he can produce a flurry of HRs and line drives when he is in a groove. But he is frustrating because of his inability to take a walk. His batting line relies too much on year to year BABIP.
Once Prado meets Towers and Kendrick, it will make it impossible.
But I'm sure that 70 win season will turn him around.
More like you can not take into consideration Prado signing an extension when evaluating this trade, which is an odd way to look at it. They're both right, they're both wrong. On one hand, if Prado had more years on his contract then his value is different. Maybe he's not traded at all. But on the other, at the end of the day you get him on an extension )that he wasn't going to sign with the Braves).
Which you can agree or disagree with, but seems like the silliest of distinctions without a difference (E.g. "the DBacks LOST the trade. But you know, a day afterwards, they had a good TOTALLY UNRELATED transaction where they signed Prado to an extension").
Trickster, I think you just described the majority of hitters, ever.
The Dodgers can if Hairston or Gordon is in for Ethier.
I can still see the D'Backs trading him for yet another shortstop. There is no rhyme or reason to what they are doing.
2011 was the year he started sleeping with all the wives of the NL pitchers.
I like the deal. For the Diamondbacks, even if Prado is an FA. Upton is erratic and has reached the point where if he was going to be a star, he would be already.
Francisco's had a really good winter in the DR. He also seems to have joined the Melky Cabrerra training plan this winter.
The difference is that trade was contingent on the Blue Jays signing Dickey long term
Upton was 3.4 before the trade. I guess the H/R splits actually mattered.
Cold days would be interesting too, ding, ding.
He's entering his age 25 season. I think he is way to young to make such a statement with any certainty.
Toronto made a great deal with the Mets because they made signing Dickey conditional to complete the trade. If Towers doesn't make signing Prado conditional on completing this trade, he's a fool. Trading a valuable player with 3 years of control for a similarly valued player with 1 year of control doesn't make sense, and counting on a "home town" discount or that it will be easier to sign him to a long term deal is obviously foolish.
Why should Prado give the Diamondbacks any discount once the trade is made? Because it has suddenly become his "hometown" team? He's a wealthy baseball player, he can make his home town where-ever he wants it. When you and I move we may throw our backs out doing it ourselves, Martin signs a check to the movers to move 10x as much stuff as you and I own combined.
The reason players give teams discounts is because it reduces their risk of a severe injury or some unlikely catastrophe (car accident, extreme DUI/crime, failed drug test, career worst year) dropping their FA value substantially. The benefit the Diamondbacks get from trading for Prado is that exclusive window to negotiate with him before seasons end, and the (likely $14M next year) qualifying offer reducing competitors bids for him.
I have no idea what his FA value is other than he apparently asked for $12M a year to sign a long term deal now with the Braves, so he and his agent obviously think the market for him is significantly higher. So let's assume Prado could get a 4 year/$60M FA deal after next year, even with the acquirer giving up a prospect because of the qualifying offer. If the DBacks give him a 4 year $48M deal, their "home town discount" is $12M spread out over 4 years.
But it's not really a home-town discount, the lower salary comes only by assuming additional risk that a team signing him after the 2013 season doesn't have, the risk he gets hurt or becomes substantially less valuable in 2013. If Prado loses his arm in a freak carnival accident during the 2013 season after signing his extension, the DBacks eat the whole deal. So what is the real value of that discount?
You can argue that it's not just the $12M they gain, but also the prospect they didn't have to give up to sign him, that any team signing him as a free agent will. So he's really he's worth 4 years $70M and the DBacks will get Prado at $22M under market over 4 years, but again reduced by whatever the cost of taking on that additional risk is.
If Prado's chance of a career ending injury in a year is 1 in 50, that's only about a $1M cost to the deal. But the more likely risk is him having a severe injury, off field issue, or year bad enough to substantially reduce his free agency value. Assume that happens 1 time in 8 and on average his reduced value is $6M per year, that's an additional $3M of risk. So the value of negotiating early with Prado would be something like $18M, and my guess is he has roughly $8M in surplus value for 2013, so combined $26M.
You can play with the numbers all you want, I'm using Prado's agents numbers (& FanGraph's WAR) so my estimates of his FA value should more likely be high, than low, but it seems at most the excess value of having Prado and having his negotiating rights window together can't be worth more than $30M.
Justin Upton has averaged $18.5M in value the last 4 years (ages 21-24), he's owed $38M over the next three, so on paper he should provide roughly $17M in surplus value over that period. Except, and these are some very big exceptions.
a) Price per WAR should rise significantly given all the new TV money. Long term fixed contracts with good players at attractive values are great things to have right now.
b) He's entering his prime, so even if he doesn't take a step into superstardom it's more likely he exceeds his previous averages than not.
c) Upton's future FA deal gives his team optionality value, likely more than Prado's. His team will either get a valuable draft pick for him, or can negotiate a team friendly deal with signifiant excess value.
If price per war averages $5M (from $4.5M ish now) the next 3 years, and Justin just performs the same as he did the last 4 years (4.2 WAR per year), his surplus playing value over 3 years will be $24M. The value of the pick the team gets when he walks will probably be at least $10M, and if his FA value (at age 28) is 5 years/$100M at a date where WAR will almost certainly be worth more than $5M, the excess value that could be produced getting him to sign a "home town" discount deal before walking could worth up to $30M.
In total, the value of Upton's playing time and negotiating rights/compensatory pick will likely be north of $35M, and possibly double that or more. Upton will have a great deal more variance in his value, because his team is years away from monetizing his negotiating rights/trade value. If he becomes a superstar that value explodes, if he has a career ender, it's negative. But it's really hard to see, even with the value of the sole negotiating period you get as Prados team, how one season of Prado can ever be close to the value of 3 seasons of Upton.
Prado's not going to sign an under-market deal. He wouldn't do that for Atlanta, and he was smart to refuse. His career path has been really weird, basically an unspectacular journeyman type in the minors who projected to be a backup utility infielder for his career in the bigs. He then just put everything together at the MLB level and became a very valuable player for the Braves, while being very inexpensive to their budget. But because his debut was late in his development cycle, he's only ever going to get one real "cash out" opportunity on the market, and as a 3B he's positioned to leverage that cash out reasonably well. If I were him no way I'd sign a long term at anything less than $12-3m per.
Prado for Upton? THAT'S NOT FAIR!
Prado and Delgado for Upton and Johnson? I've seen worse deals but no.
Prado and Delgado and Ahmed for Upton and Johnson? Close but no cigar.
Unless they hate each other.
You would hope that this would have been an element of the due diligence the Braves would have done, before making this trade.
Let's have him put up improved numbers first. He's signed for the next three years as is and only put up a 107 OPS+ last year.
I'm not sure if you're talking about the Melky Cabrera in-Atlanta training plan, or the post-Atlanta training plan. So, are you saying that Francisco has ballooned up to 375 pounds, or that he's taken a breathtakingly large quantity of steroids?
He was playing injured for much of last year and did have a very nice September. His bat speed is insane when healthy, but so far there hasn't been truly superstar level offense to go with that.
And yeah he gets along fine with Bossman Junior.
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