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Thursday, January 24, 2013

Bowman: Braves get Justin Upton

Kevin Towers gave up more talent to acquire Didi Gregorius than he received in return for Justin Upton.

Source: Braves get Justin Upton and Chris Johnson from D-backs for Prado, Delgado, Ahmed and Spruill.

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:16 AM | 139 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: braves, diamondbacks, justin upton, trades, transactions

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   1. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:20 AM (#4353961)
Apparently Didi Gregorius is a real baseball player and not some kind of bizarre Repozesque reference. How about that?

I have no idea what Towers is doing in Arizona these days, but I guess we'll see if he makes me look foolish.
   2. The District Attorney Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:20 AM (#4353962)
The dead terrorist??

It'll be interesting to see what effect playing together has on the Upton bros.

I have no idea what Towers is doing in Arizona
I think for him, it is and has always been "we strike out too much."

I don't know the Braves guys in this deal other than Prado, so I can't say it's a bad deal for AZ. But I certainly don't think much of the general notion that trading Justin Upton is the answer. The question is whether a flawed thought process ended up working out anyway due to circumstances (which does often happen).
   3. spike Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:22 AM (#4353964)
Very sad to see Prado in this deal. He was likely going to be too expensive for the Braves after this year, but the team has now re-opened the hole at 3B acquiring Upton was supposed to solve.
   4. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:25 AM (#4353966)
Ugh. This appears to be a marginal upgrade.
   5. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:27 AM (#4353968)
Chris Johnson is a solid hitter for a third baseman. His defensive stats are very bad. If he's not a terrible fielder at third (I don't know if I've ever seen him play), he should be a good replacement for Prado.
   6. Ron J2 Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:29 AM (#4353971)
#3 Chris Johnson's in the deal too. I assume he's the short term solution at third -- at least for now.
   7. Esoteric Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:30 AM (#4353972)
Actually a reasonably good deal for the Diamondbacks, given that Upton undercut a lot of their leverage by vetoing the deal to Seattle (and as a Mariners fan, thank god). First thing Towers has done this offseason that doesn't make me want to slap my forehead, Homer-style.

And the Upton brothers will be playing together! That's pretty cool.
   8. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:32 AM (#4353974)
Actually a reasonably good deal for the Diamondbacks


Prado is a FA at the end of the year.
   9. spike Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:33 AM (#4353976)
Unfortunately, Johnson is meant to be terrible at 3rd by all accounts, and has a reverse platoon split, so they can't really platoon him with Francisco - who sports a very similar career batting line. I guess the hope is that Simmons and Upton will minimize the issue, and Johnson will hit enough to make it worthwhile.
   10. Esoteric Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:34 AM (#4353977)
Prado is a FA at the end of the year.
...aaaaand I was just coming back here to add that I didn't know this before I wrote my post above, and it alters my opinion of the deal. For some reason I thought he had two years of team control left.

Okay: WTF are you doing out there, Kevin Towers?
   11. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:34 AM (#4353979)
Unfortunately, Johnson is meant to be terrible at 3rd by all accounts, and has a reverse platoon split, so they can't really platoon him with Francisco - who sports a very similar career batting line.
1300 PA is not a sufficient sample to project a RHB reverse platoon split. The best projection for Johnson is still a pretty much normal split.
   12. zonk Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:35 AM (#4353980)
I guess I'm in the minority in thinking that's an awfully light package... I'd have insisted on Teheran, but maybe I'm still operating under a 2011 mindset regarding the hierarchy of Braves pitching prospects.
   13. ColonelTom Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:37 AM (#4353984)
I'm not 100% sure Chris Johnson will start, though it's the most likely scenario. Another possibility is moving Uggla to 3B and signing a 2B like Kelly Johnson, which would leave them with one defensive problem in the infield instead of two.
   14. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:39 AM (#4353985)
Prado's a fine player but there's only a year of control left for him, and presumably he becomes the regular third baseman and you'd think his biggest value would be as probably the best utility guy in the majors.

From a stat geek perspective, the prospect haul is really underwhelming but I'm guessing the scouts like those guys a lot better than their stats have been. Ahmed looks like a decent prospect from a statistical level I suppose, and the shortstop fetish continues apace.

For the Braves, that's quite an outfield they've assemble, I'm assuming Justin is the left fielder now? If they're counting on Chris Johnson as their everyday 3B, that seems like a rather stiff downgrade from Chipper and probably from Prado. Against a right handed pitcher, is he a better option than Francisco? Doesn't immediately look like it once the difference in gloves is factored in.

The brothers (and the whole family really) have to be very excited in any event.
   15. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:41 AM (#4353986)
I'm not 100% sure Chris Johnson will start, though it's the most likely scenario. Another possibility is moving Uggla to 3B and signing a 2B like Kelly Johnson, which would leave them with one defensive problem in the infield instead of two.


Uggla at 3B has disaster written all over it. Or maybe catastrophe since he's already a disaster at 2B.
   16. formerly dp Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:43 AM (#4353987)
I guess I'm in the minority in thinking that's an awfully light package...
Just eyeballing it, I agree.
   17. Danny Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:44 AM (#4353988)
Delgado looks like he's already a league average SP with some upside--which is pretty valuable as a 23 year old with less than a year of service time.
   18. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:48 AM (#4353993)
The Braves had both "Teheran" and "Ahmed"?
   19. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:50 AM (#4353994)
Terrence Moore loves this trade.
   20. ColonelTom Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:50 AM (#4353995)
Delgado looks like he's already a league average SP with some upside--which is pretty valuable as a 23 year old with less than a year of service time.


Sounds a lot like Trevor Bauer in a year or so.
   21. spike Posted: January 24, 2013 at 11:55 AM (#4354004)
Terrence Moore loves this trade.

Of course he does. But now we're doomed.
   22. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:00 PM (#4354008)
Okay: WTF are you doing out there, Kevin Towers?
Making final preparations for his Africa vacation - leaves tomorrow, helping explain why AZ wanted to wrap this up today.
   23. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:05 PM (#4354012)
Making final preparations for his Africa vacation - leaves tomorrow, helping explain why AZ wanted to wrap this up today.

Are you serious?

EDIT: You are.
   24. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:12 PM (#4354017)
Making final preparations for his Africa vacation - leaves tomorrow, helping explain why AZ wanted to wrap this up today.

D'oh!
   25. Mike Webber Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:15 PM (#4354019)
MLB Network is reporting that minor leaguer Brandon Drury is also going from Atlanta to Arizona.
   26. Colin Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:17 PM (#4354022)
Prado is very useful for his positional flexibility (he backed up SS capably on occasion this year, and I think he's defensively strong at both 2B and 3B). Having him under control for only one year is, I presume, why Wren saw him as disposable. Some writer recently, I forget who, seemed to hint that Prado wanted more positional certainty.

As a Braves' fan I'm not miffed with this package. Delgado is useful, the others aren't guys I see as compelling. Still, replacing Prado at 3B with Francisco/Johnson is likely an offensive downgrade and certainly a defensive downgrade. So, I'm not sure this improves them for 2013, but probably for 2014/15, if they figured they'd lose Prado.
   27. Der-K, the bloodied charmer Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:19 PM (#4354026)
Cameron calls this win-win - I'm not sure what I think yet.
J.Upton has a skill set that tends to be overrated, Prado is the reverse and I'm with Danny on Delgado. OTOH, there's the team aforementioned team control issues and Upton is the most valuable commodity in the deal.
   28. spike Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:20 PM (#4354029)
I would hope that the value of Francisco/C Johnson/J Upton > Prado/Francisco/R Johnson even for 2013.
   29. Gamingboy Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:24 PM (#4354031)
It's fun when Brothers play together
   30. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:24 PM (#4354032)
One way or another, the Braves are going bad defense/HR offense out of 3B, and leaving all of the ground balls to that side of the diamond for Simmons to go get. Which is reasonable, I guess. The real problem with Atlanta's roster as currently constructed is that it has no leadoff hitter. Neither of the Uptons carry an OBP I want to see in the top slot.
   31. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:25 PM (#4354033)
while i can see both sides fundamentally i don't support ballclubs trading away players who have demonstrated excellence at the big league level who are still under the age of 27.

i know it happens. don't like it
   32. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:25 PM (#4354034)
Add me to the list of people thinking Towers screwed the pooch here. Delgado is the only player I'd be excited about as a D-Back fan and I don't think he's that exciting. Between the down year in 2012 and the apparent eagerness to unload him I think Towers sold at about as low a point as possible.

Combining the three high profile deals this winter the D-Backs have done the following;

Lost: Trevor Bauer, Justin Upton, Chris Young, Chris Johnson, Matt Albers, Bryan Shaw

Gained: Randall Delgado, Nick Ahmed, Didi Gregorious, Lars Anderson, Tony Sipp, Zeke Spruill, Martin Prado, Brandon Drury, Heath Bell and Cliff Pennington

If I'm a D-Backs fan I'm not thrilled with this collection.
   33. with Glavinesque control and Madduxian poise Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:26 PM (#4354035)
Prado is a really excellent defensive 3B and an average, maybe slightly worse, defensive 2B.
   34. JJ1986 Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:28 PM (#4354037)
The real problem with Atlanta's roster as currently constructed is that it has no leadoff hitter.


J-up has a pretty good OBP. Go with something like: Justin, Heyward, Freeman, Uggla, Melvin, Francisco, Laird, Simmons.
   35. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:28 PM (#4354038)
Who is in the Braves rotation now? Medlen, Hudson.....Minor? Teheran? Beachy? Maholm? Graham? This looks pretty thin.
   36. JJ1986 Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:28 PM (#4354040)
If I'm a D-Backs fan I'm not thrilled with this collection.


Just wait until the rules change requiring a team to play with 3 shortstops.
   37. asinwreck Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:33 PM (#4354044)
Did Upton run over Kendrick's dog or something? What happened here?
   38. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:34 PM (#4354045)
Medlen-Hudson-Minor-Maholm-Teheran.

It's possible the Braves will use some of their leftover money to pick up a starter.
   39. ColonelTom Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:35 PM (#4354047)
Minor was lights-out in the second half last year. They'll go Medlen, Hudson, Minor, Teheran, and Maholm. I also wouldn't be shocked to see them land another veteran starter before all's said and done.

EDIT: Coke to CFBF.
   40. spike Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:37 PM (#4354048)
Medlen/Minor/Hudson/Maholm/Teheran looks pretty good to me, and if/when Beachy comes back looks very good. Maholm and Hudson were just fine last season, and Minor really came on in the second half. Medlen and Beachy were otherworldly. Teheran is definitely in a season of decision, but as 5th starters go, that's a pretty good bet.
   41. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:38 PM (#4354049)
Minor is out until at least midseason.

EDIT: why can I never keep my Braves pitchers straight? I'm thinking of Beachy obviously.
   42. spike Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:42 PM (#4354052)
Gilmartin is coming along nicely too, and Avilan was a pretty decent starter in AA last year.
   43. Der-K, the bloodied charmer Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:47 PM (#4354056)
Contracts:
Justin: 9.75m this year, then 14.25, 14.5
Prado: somewhere around 6.85m
Johnson: 2.29m this year

ZiPS has Upton as a 3.4 WAR player - CAIRO has Upton at 2.9 oWAR, with a small positive bump for defense. ZiPS hasn't evaluated Prado yet - CAIRO has Prado at 1.0 WAR, but that's as a left fielder with a quarter less time than JU. Make their time equivalent, shift Prado to third (where he's good) or slot him as a utility guy (there's value in being good and versatile) - and Upton projects around a win over Prado.

Though there's certainty with Upton's contract, I'm not sure that there's much in the way in value over contract (which an org that is slowly sliding into lower middle-classdom like Atlanta is maybe a little more sensitive to).

I've never liked Johnson and can't claim to be impartial about him. He could be part of a ok hit / no field platoon, I suppose.
   44. ColonelTom Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:47 PM (#4354059)
J.R. Graham may also be ready before the season's over, though he's more likely to have an impact next year.
   45. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:52 PM (#4354063)

It's possible the Braves will use some of their leftover money to pick up a starter.


Yea, but who is out there? Kyle Lohse and Joe Saunders are really the only dependable guys left, and they have some warts too. After that its Carlos Zambrano, Dice-K, Oswalt, or bringin Jurrjens back.

I think the rotation is probably good enough to start the season with, and if one of the younger guys isn't up to snuff, they can make a trade then.
   46. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 24, 2013 at 12:54 PM (#4354064)
Cameron calls this win-win - I'm not sure what I think yet.


Guess that means it'll turn out badly for both, though I'm not sure how that could be true for the Braves. Maybe Upton'll get hurt?
   47. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: January 24, 2013 at 01:19 PM (#4354081)
The Diamondbacks are expected to extend Prado, according to Fox Sports Arizona. No word if Towers' vacation plans will influence this, but maybe Prado signs an extension before Towers' flight tomorrow.
   48. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 24, 2013 at 01:26 PM (#4354090)
Nobody ages more gracefully than an over-30 2B.
   49. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: January 24, 2013 at 01:31 PM (#4354095)
Nobody ages more gracefully than an over-30 2B.


Prado is a 3B, not a 2B. He can play 2B, but his value position is third.
   50. Adward Posted: January 24, 2013 at 01:36 PM (#4354102)
Olt and Barnes mentioned, Houston's not taking on any salary so no on Springer, was Charles Nagy an option? !@*! He's their pitching coach!

/checks mail for Diamandbacks' contract offer...
   51. Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun) Posted: January 24, 2013 at 01:37 PM (#4354106)
As an NBA fan, I am of the opinion that there are currently too many sportsmen named "Chris Johnson".
   52. KT's Pot Arb Posted: January 24, 2013 at 01:53 PM (#4354119)
J.Upton has a skill set that tends to be overrated,


Yes, it's those guys who make extra errors but have the best RF range in the league that are over-rated.

Or those low BA/good OBP guys.

Maybe it's slugging corner outfielders with plus base-running skills?
   53. Tippecanoe Posted: January 24, 2013 at 01:59 PM (#4354127)
CAIRO has Prado at 1.0 WAR


I know zilch about CAIRO, but this strikes me as odd. Prado is a 29-year-old coming off of a 5.4, with 15 bWAR over the past 4 seasons.
   54. Danny Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:02 PM (#4354131)
What's up with Upton's HBP totals?

2007: 1
2008: 4
2009: 2
2010: 4
2011: 19
2012: 5
   55. ColonelTom Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:08 PM (#4354136)
I believe CAIRO has Prado starting in LF, which would significantly reduce his WAR.
   56. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:12 PM (#4354141)
D'Backs are supposedly using Ahmed now to go after Rick Porcello.


What's up with Upton's HBP totals?

2007: 1
2008: 4
2009: 2
2010: 4
2011: 19
2012: 5


Probably roids.
   57. JRVJ Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:24 PM (#4354155)
There's some genuinely interesting Twitter debate about this trade and the potential extension to Prado between Dave Cameron vs. Joe Sheehan and Keith Law (Craig Calcaterra is also in there).

Highly recommended, though I think on this one I MOSTLY agree with Cameron.
   58. Graham Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:24 PM (#4354156)
"Cameron calls this win-win - I'm not sure what I think yet."

Honest question: Is there another analyst that values prospects as highly as Dave Cameron does?
   59. KT's Pot Arb Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:26 PM (#4354158)
News Flash: Braves announce signing of Bossman Sr, as a starting outfielder, and DFA Heyward to form the leagues first Upton-Upton-Upton outfield. When asked to explain this stunning turn of events, GM Wren said "We don't need the best outfield in baseball, just one that is better than Arizonas"
   60. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:27 PM (#4354160)
I shall miss prado.

Now the braves need a 3rd baseman.
   61. JJ1986 Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:28 PM (#4354162)
There's some genuinely interesting Twitter debate about this trade and the potential extension to Prado between Dave Cameron vs. Joe Sheehan and Keith Law (Craig Calcaterra is also in there).


Sheehan and Law are basically saying that having a player under contract does not help to sign him to an extension?
   62. KT's Pot Arb Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:29 PM (#4354165)
News flash: Bossman Sr. flunks physical, but Wren is able to sign Kate Upton to keep his all Upton outfield intact. "Still better than Arizonas" says Wren.
   63. Dan Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:29 PM (#4354167)
Now the braves need a 3rd baseman.


Wonder what it would take to pry Olt away from the Rangers at this point. He'd be a perfect fit for the Braves who now have a long-term hole at third, and he's obviously blocked in Texas for a while still.
   64. Der-K, the bloodied charmer Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:31 PM (#4354171)
Dan posted post trade zips...
Prado 3.3, upton 3.1, Delgado 1, Ahmed 1, Johnson .5, spruill .4

Issue here isn't about prospects (these aren't high level guys) - it's the value of prado and of $ (and risk preference with upton)
   65. bfan Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:32 PM (#4354174)
but Wren is able to sign Kate Upton to keep his all Upton outfield intact


I personally would pay to see her run after fly balls, especially on the hot, humid, sweaty summer day games.
   66. JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:33 PM (#4354176)
John McCain supports John Kerry for Secretary of State but not BJ Upton in another team's uniform.
   67. Tricky Dick Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:33 PM (#4354177)
If he's not a terrible fielder at third (I don't know if I've ever seen him play)

As an Astros' fan, I've seen a lot of Chris Johnson. Yes, he is a bad fielder. Makes lots of errors. He has decent tools for fielding, strong arm and decent speed, but he hasn't made the most of his skills. Problems usually involve bobbling the ball when he thinks he has to make the play quickly or overthrowing 1st base.

Chris Johnson is a streaky hitter, and he can produce a flurry of HRs and line drives when he is in a groove. But he is frustrating because of his inability to take a walk. His batting line relies too much on year to year BABIP.
   68. KT's Pot Arb Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:33 PM (#4354179)
Sheehan and Law are basically saying that having a player under contract does not help to sign him to an extension?


Once Prado meets Towers and Kendrick, it will make it impossible.

But I'm sure that 70 win season will turn him around.
   69. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:34 PM (#4354180)
Sheehan and Law are basically saying that having a player under contract does not help to sign him to an extension?


More like you can not take into consideration Prado signing an extension when evaluating this trade, which is an odd way to look at it. They're both right, they're both wrong. On one hand, if Prado had more years on his contract then his value is different. Maybe he's not traded at all. But on the other, at the end of the day you get him on an extension )that he wasn't going to sign with the Braves).
   70. JRVJ Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:36 PM (#4354181)
61, No, they seem to be saying that when receiving a player in a trade, you should never bake-in (Sheehan's words) an extension (even if fairly concurrent) as part of that trade.

Which you can agree or disagree with, but seems like the silliest of distinctions without a difference (E.g. "the DBacks LOST the trade. But you know, a day afterwards, they had a good TOTALLY UNRELATED transaction where they signed Prado to an extension").
   71. JJ1986 Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:39 PM (#4354186)
Okay. Yeah, the value of Prado is Prado's contract plus the opportunity to extend him, not only Prado's current contract and nothing else. They could not have signed him for 2014+ right now if they didn't have his 2013 contract.
   72. just plain joe Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:40 PM (#4354188)
Chris Johnson is a streaky hitter, and he can produce a flurry of HRs and line drives when he is in a groove. But he is frustrating because of his inability to take a walk. His batting line relies too much on year to year BABIP.


Trickster, I think you just described the majority of hitters, ever.
   73. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:40 PM (#4354190)
One thing that looks promising about Francisco's record is how far he's come defensively at third base. I would think that would tend to indicate a player who is willing to work very hard at his shortcomings. He still swings at everything, but maybe he's got some late blooming yet to do. It's obviously a weak spot for the Braves, but I've certainly seen worse third base situations before (see White Sox).
   74. JJ1986 Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:40 PM (#4354191)
The Blue Jays really gave up too much for one year of RA Dickey.
   75. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:40 PM (#4354192)
How many teams have an All-African-American outfield anymore? Phillies: Brown-Revere-Young. Tigers on days Quintin Berry plays - Berry-Jackson-Hunter.
   76. JJ1986 Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:48 PM (#4354207)
How many teams have an All-African-American outfield anymore? Phillies: Brown-Revere-Young. Tigers on days Quintin Berry plays - Berry-Jackson-Hunter.


The Dodgers can if Hairston or Gordon is in for Ethier.
   77. The Chanumas Spirit Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:51 PM (#4354212)
The best thing about this news is that it FINALLY ends those stupid Kubel-to-the-Orioles rumors
   78. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:55 PM (#4354218)
I think we all know how the Braves' third base dilemma ends: Chipper makes a stirring July comeback.
   79. I am going to be Frank Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:58 PM (#4354225)
Don't ballplayers love living in Arizona? Maybe that will convince Prado.
   80. McCoy Posted: January 24, 2013 at 02:59 PM (#4354227)
nm
   81. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 24, 2013 at 03:17 PM (#4354253)

The best thing about this news is that it FINALLY ends those stupid Kubel-to-the-Orioles rumors


I can still see the D'Backs trading him for yet another shortstop. There is no rhyme or reason to what they are doing.
   82. jack the seal clubber (on the sidelines of life) Posted: January 24, 2013 at 03:36 PM (#4354268)
What's up with Upton's HBP totals?

2007: 1
2008: 4
2009: 2
2010: 4
2011: 19
2012: 5


2011 was the year he started sleeping with all the wives of the NL pitchers.

I like the deal. For the Diamondbacks, even if Prado is an FA. Upton is erratic and has reached the point where if he was going to be a star, he would be already.
   83. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 24, 2013 at 03:40 PM (#4354275)
Lars Anderson DFAed to make room. So, why was he included in the Bauer deal to begin with?
   84. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: January 24, 2013 at 03:46 PM (#4354280)
One thing that looks promising about Francisco's record is how far he's come defensively at third base.


Francisco's had a really good winter in the DR. He also seems to have joined the Melky Cabrerra training plan this winter.
   85. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 24, 2013 at 03:51 PM (#4354283)
The Blue Jays really gave up too much for one year of RA Dickey.

The difference is that trade was contingent on the Blue Jays signing Dickey long term

Dan posted post trade zips...
Prado 3.3, upton 3.1, Delgado 1, Ahmed 1, Johnson .5, spruill .4

Upton was 3.4 before the trade. I guess the H/R splits actually mattered.
   86. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: January 24, 2013 at 03:54 PM (#4354286)
I personally would pay to see her run after fly balls, especially on the hot, humid, sweaty summer day games.

Cold days would be interesting too, ding, ding.
   87. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: January 24, 2013 at 04:00 PM (#4354289)
Upton is erratic and has reached the point where if he was going to be a star, he would be already.


He's entering his age 25 season. I think he is way to young to make such a statement with any certainty.
   88. KT's Pot Arb Posted: January 24, 2013 at 04:00 PM (#4354290)
61, No, they seem to be saying that when receiving a player in a trade, you should never bake-in (Sheehan's words) an extension (even if fairly concurrent) as part of that trade.

Which you can agree or disagree with, but seems like the silliest of distinctions without a difference (E.g. "the DBacks LOST the trade. But you know, a day afterwards, they had a good TOTALLY UNRELATED transaction where they signed Prado to an extension").


Toronto made a great deal with the Mets because they made signing Dickey conditional to complete the trade. If Towers doesn't make signing Prado conditional on completing this trade, he's a fool. Trading a valuable player with 3 years of control for a similarly valued player with 1 year of control doesn't make sense, and counting on a "home town" discount or that it will be easier to sign him to a long term deal is obviously foolish.

Why should Prado give the Diamondbacks any discount once the trade is made? Because it has suddenly become his "hometown" team? He's a wealthy baseball player, he can make his home town where-ever he wants it. When you and I move we may throw our backs out doing it ourselves, Martin signs a check to the movers to move 10x as much stuff as you and I own combined.

The reason players give teams discounts is because it reduces their risk of a severe injury or some unlikely catastrophe (car accident, extreme DUI/crime, failed drug test, career worst year) dropping their FA value substantially. The benefit the Diamondbacks get from trading for Prado is that exclusive window to negotiate with him before seasons end, and the (likely $14M next year) qualifying offer reducing competitors bids for him.

I have no idea what his FA value is other than he apparently asked for $12M a year to sign a long term deal now with the Braves, so he and his agent obviously think the market for him is significantly higher. So let's assume Prado could get a 4 year/$60M FA deal after next year, even with the acquirer giving up a prospect because of the qualifying offer. If the DBacks give him a 4 year $48M deal, their "home town discount" is $12M spread out over 4 years.

But it's not really a home-town discount, the lower salary comes only by assuming additional risk that a team signing him after the 2013 season doesn't have, the risk he gets hurt or becomes substantially less valuable in 2013. If Prado loses his arm in a freak carnival accident during the 2013 season after signing his extension, the DBacks eat the whole deal. So what is the real value of that discount?

You can argue that it's not just the $12M they gain, but also the prospect they didn't have to give up to sign him, that any team signing him as a free agent will. So he's really he's worth 4 years $70M and the DBacks will get Prado at $22M under market over 4 years, but again reduced by whatever the cost of taking on that additional risk is.

If Prado's chance of a career ending injury in a year is 1 in 50, that's only about a $1M cost to the deal. But the more likely risk is him having a severe injury, off field issue, or year bad enough to substantially reduce his free agency value. Assume that happens 1 time in 8 and on average his reduced value is $6M per year, that's an additional $3M of risk. So the value of negotiating early with Prado would be something like $18M, and my guess is he has roughly $8M in surplus value for 2013, so combined $26M.

You can play with the numbers all you want, I'm using Prado's agents numbers (& FanGraph's WAR) so my estimates of his FA value should more likely be high, than low, but it seems at most the excess value of having Prado and having his negotiating rights window together can't be worth more than $30M.

Justin Upton has averaged $18.5M in value the last 4 years (ages 21-24), he's owed $38M over the next three, so on paper he should provide roughly $17M in surplus value over that period. Except, and these are some very big exceptions.

a) Price per WAR should rise significantly given all the new TV money. Long term fixed contracts with good players at attractive values are great things to have right now.
b) He's entering his prime, so even if he doesn't take a step into superstardom it's more likely he exceeds his previous averages than not.
c) Upton's future FA deal gives his team optionality value, likely more than Prado's. His team will either get a valuable draft pick for him, or can negotiate a team friendly deal with signifiant excess value.

If price per war averages $5M (from $4.5M ish now) the next 3 years, and Justin just performs the same as he did the last 4 years (4.2 WAR per year), his surplus playing value over 3 years will be $24M. The value of the pick the team gets when he walks will probably be at least $10M, and if his FA value (at age 28) is 5 years/$100M at a date where WAR will almost certainly be worth more than $5M, the excess value that could be produced getting him to sign a "home town" discount deal before walking could worth up to $30M.

In total, the value of Upton's playing time and negotiating rights/compensatory pick will likely be north of $35M, and possibly double that or more. Upton will have a great deal more variance in his value, because his team is years away from monetizing his negotiating rights/trade value. If he becomes a superstar that value explodes, if he has a career ender, it's negative. But it's really hard to see, even with the value of the sole negotiating period you get as Prados team, how one season of Prado can ever be close to the value of 3 seasons of Upton.
   89. Der-K, the bloodied charmer Posted: January 24, 2013 at 04:01 PM (#4354292)
i don't know dan's logic, but i'd think that it's upton being a better fit for his old park than turner that mattered, ivan...
   90. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: January 24, 2013 at 04:12 PM (#4354302)
Why should Prado give the Diamondbacks any discount once the trade is made? Because it has suddenly become his "hometown" team? He's a wealthy baseball player, he can make his home town where-ever he wants it. When you and I move we may throw our backs out doing it ourselves, Martin signs a check to the movers to move 10x as much stuff as you and I own combined.


Prado's not going to sign an under-market deal. He wouldn't do that for Atlanta, and he was smart to refuse. His career path has been really weird, basically an unspectacular journeyman type in the minors who projected to be a backup utility infielder for his career in the bigs. He then just put everything together at the MLB level and became a very valuable player for the Braves, while being very inexpensive to their budget. But because his debut was late in his development cycle, he's only ever going to get one real "cash out" opportunity on the market, and as a 3B he's positioned to leverage that cash out reasonably well. If I were him no way I'd sign a long term at anything less than $12-3m per.
   91. Der-K, the bloodied charmer Posted: January 24, 2013 at 04:15 PM (#4354307)
@SteveGilbertMLB
Upton's agent told team in Oct. that a trade might be best for everyone. NO trade demand was made. Story soon on dbacks.com.
   92. zachtoma Posted: January 24, 2013 at 04:28 PM (#4354317)
Very excited about this trade. Surprised and saddened to see Prado go, though - I was never really convinced of him as an everyday player until his strong bounce-back year in 2012. But, we hung onto Teheran, Graham, and Gattis, all of whom were rumored to be in the package at various points, so I can't complain. I don't expect I'll miss any of the prospects we gave up, which, when trading for a 25 y/o player like Justin Upton, is really quite remarkable.
   93. Walt Davis Posted: January 24, 2013 at 05:11 PM (#4354349)
We joke about it but doesn't this look like an OOTP trade where you just keep piling on low-level prospects until the algorithm clicks to "yes"?

Prado for Upton? THAT'S NOT FAIR!
Prado and Delgado for Upton and Johnson? I've seen worse deals but no.
Prado and Delgado and Ahmed for Upton and Johnson? Close but no cigar.
   94. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: January 24, 2013 at 05:13 PM (#4354353)
   95. Willie Mayspedes Posted: January 24, 2013 at 05:26 PM (#4354358)
I'd say that an extension for Justin Upton would be a no brainer for the Braves right now. You'd think that 5 years of playing the OF next to his brother would be too good to pass up. I'd say 2 years 40 million + an option year or something.
   96. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 24, 2013 at 05:32 PM (#4354365)
You'd think that 5 years of playing the OF next to his brother would be too good to pass up.


Unless they hate each other.
   97. bfan Posted: January 24, 2013 at 05:50 PM (#4354383)
Unless they hate each other.


You would hope that this would have been an element of the due diligence the Braves would have done, before making this trade.
   98. Der-K, the bloodied charmer Posted: January 24, 2013 at 05:58 PM (#4354391)
I'd say 2 years 40 million + an option year or something.

Let's have him put up improved numbers first. He's signed for the next three years as is and only put up a 107 OPS+ last year.
   99. Brian White Posted: January 24, 2013 at 06:07 PM (#4354395)
He also seems to have joined the Melky Cabrerra training plan this winter.


I'm not sure if you're talking about the Melky Cabrera in-Atlanta training plan, or the post-Atlanta training plan. So, are you saying that Francisco has ballooned up to 375 pounds, or that he's taken a breathtakingly large quantity of steroids?
   100. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: January 24, 2013 at 06:12 PM (#4354402)
Let's have him put up improved numbers first. He's signed for the next three years as is and only put up a 107 OPS+ last year.

He was playing injured for much of last year and did have a very nice September. His bat speed is insane when healthy, but so far there hasn't been truly superstar level offense to go with that.

And yeah he gets along fine with Bossman Junior.
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