Let's have him put up improved numbers first

If he does that, you won't get him to extend for that price.

Signing an extension now would be buying low and matching contract length with his brother.

20 million per is buying low?

20 million per is buying low?

Quoted for emphasis.

Let's put the shoe on the other foot - let's say Upton improves those numbers as you say, and has a 120ish OPS+ year. He's got two years left on his current deal. Think he'll do a 2/40 extension? I don't.

well, the dbax hated upton, wanted him off the team and they got thier wish.

as for chris johnson
he was signed to be minor league filler for the astros Organization and he pissed them off big time by playing his way onto the ML roster after even fast eddie had to admit that the carcass of pedro feliz played like any zombie.

the Organization never liked him, never just gave him a job, always threatened him with platoons/minor league. he's one of those streaky hitters, and when he starts to go bad, he swings at stuff he doesn't swing at when he's doing fine.

he's not a top notch bat, but he's not belanger neither.

as for the glove, he doesn't miss many plays he should have made and he has at least league average range to MY eyeballs. his troubles happen almost always because of
1 - bad throws - he rushes, and sometimes he doesn't just hold the damm ball when there's no way even scott rolen couda thrown someone out
2 - he tries to make a play that almost nobody coulda made, so he touches the ball and doesn't get it

to my eyeballs, he's improved since he was originally called up.

I don't think I'd want to sign Upton to that deal even if he did put up a 120ish OPS+

That's really a different question.

It's an incredibly relevant one though.

But it's not what you took issue with. My point is that with any significant upward performance, you won't be able to extend him for 2 years concievably. It's kind of now or never

Oh and I just threw out 20 million per year out of my ass, maybe 15 million AAV for 2 years or 12.5 million for 3? I'm no GM.

I'm not sure if you're talking about the Melky Cabrera in-Atlanta training plan, or the post-Atlanta training plan. So, are you saying that Francisco has ballooned up to 375 pounds, or that he's taken a breathtakingly large quantity of steroids?

Last season, Francisco looked quite a bit like Melky-in-Atlanta. Ovoid in nature. This winter, he went to play in the Dominican where he magically started looking like Melky-in-Kansas-City. I am not saying he's juicing, merely that his body type went from Prince Fielder to Melky-on-the-junk in a very, very short time frame.

To get someone to sign a 2 year deal for their age 28/29 seasons is going to cost a chunk.

I wonder what number Upton the Younger will wear, because it sure as hell won't be 10.

I wonder what number Upton the Younger will wear, because it sure as hell won't be 10.

He said he's thinking about it, because he knows 10 is out of the question. So is 1, apparently.

He said he's thinking about it, because he knows 10 is out of the question. So is 1, apparently.

He's going to have to buy it off of Pastornicky. Which shouldn't be a problem.

Let's put the shoe on the other foot - let's say Upton improves those numbers as you say, and has a 120ish OPS+ year. He's got two years left on his current deal. Think he'll do a 2/40 extension? I don't.

I don't want to make too much of it, but the Uptons playing together is, as one can imagine, a big deal for them. I can see Justin taking a little less than market to stay with BJ.

Indeed. Over a little less and include two no trade clauses.

A chunk? Sure. My issue were with 20M (which is a lot and still will be by then) and the idea that the implication that we need to extend him now or that we'll never be able to do so. If he improves significantly, his price will rise - yes (and I do expect gains otherwise I'd be upset with this deal). But his contract runs three more years, not three more months - you have the option of letting this breathe a little first.

Entering the FA market as a 28 yo and entering the market as 30 year old would have a huge impact on the kind of deal he would command. It's not just the two years, it's cutting the value of them out of his next contract.

I get that.
How many WAR do you think he'll be worth those 2 years?

How many WAR do you think he'll be worth those 2 years?

10, +/- 2

Mark Grace is a time traveler. Despondent over seeing the Diamondbacks trade away their best young talent in January 2013, he went back in time and DUI'd himself out of the organization before he'd have to explain these moves.

Upton is in an interesting situation contract-wise. I've talked a bit about double-dipping -- signing a young star to an arb/FA buyout then, about halfway through if all is going well, he gets extended through age 35/36. That would be the "obvious" thing for the Braves to do after seeing him for a half to full season. Except to buy him out through 36 would be a 9-year extension and the Braves aren't going to give him a 9-year extension, at least not at any price Upton would accept. But Upton's not likely going to want, say, a 5-year extension through age 32 since that puts him on the market again at 33 which is far from ideal. But, as noted above, a 2-year extension would be an even worse idea -- less security than a 5-year extension but still a 30-year-old by the time you hit the market. Barring the Braves being so taken with him as to offer that 9 year extension, I'm guessing he's FA in 2016.

But, yes, maybe he'll want to be there as long as BJ ... can't hurt to ask. Also unless he really steps it up, nobody's gonna be offering 9 years when he's an FA in 2016 so maybe that 4-5 year extension looks really good.

Maybe it just comes down to -- which Upton does Upton himself think he is, the stud of 2011 or the career Upton?

has anyone talked to chipper about coming back for another season? he was pretty good last year, and i'd really love to see what the braves could do with a lineup including him, both uptons, heyward, mccann, freeman, and uggla. from top to bottom, pitching against that would have to be a nightmare.

Upton's bref WAR the last four years: 3.8, 1.4, 5.7, 2.1
Upton's fang WAR the last four years: 4.8, 3.0, 6.4, 2.5

That's an interesting discrepancy. Some of it is baserunning (5 v. 12 runs), some fielding (16 v. 19 runs) - is the rest part effects? Different replacement level?

***

My projection was 8.5 runs.

has anyone talked to chipper about coming back for another season?

He is not coming back.

has anyone talked to chipper about coming back for another season? he was pretty good last year, and i'd really love to see what the braves could do with a lineup including him, both uptons, heyward, mccann, freeman, and uggla. from top to bottom, pitching against that would have to be a nightmare.

Yeah seriously, even at 41 I'm positive he's better than the Chris Francisco/Juan Johnson platoon. He's got to be disappointed about that WC game last year, but there's just no way - I bet he shows up at ST but he doesn't strike me as the type to unretire a la Clemens or Favre, especially given how big a deal it was for all of 2012.

I think Chipper was fairly adamant in wanting to be retired. He said he didn't want to pull a Brett Favre ( no, not that one! the constant re-retirements )

Am conflicted on this trade. Its a gamble, but I think the Braves had to roll the dice. JUpton for Prado might be equivalent production for the next year, but over the next 3 years, the smart money is probably on JUpton outperforming Prado.
There has been lot of bemoaning re the prospect package, but the one thing the Braves are offering is Prado, who is performing at a high level in the majors, and is a fantastic defender at 3B. So the prospects more than make up for the perceived difference in performance between the two over the three year period. I think the trade is balanced, and not an underwhelming return for Arizona.

The Braves could get Chase Utley to play second and move Uggla to third. Then they'd have Uggla, Upton, Upton, and Utley. Eat your heart out, Ugueth.

Juan Johnson

I heard about him. Comes from Wisconsin, right?

is the rest part effects? Different replacement level?

fangraphs does use a lower replacement level which is probably most of the difference. There's 13 runs difference in Rrep. Also I'm not sure how fangraphs handles league differences -- bWAR considers the AL a superior league and has for about 15 years.

Then there's the always mysterious batting difference. These are both supposed to be relative to (park adjusted) league average but there's a 14-run gap there. Everybody whines about defensive stats but our two WARs actually don't agree on much of anything.

One positive about this trade for the Diamondbacks is that Prado will help their infield defense. It's not an insignificant point, because they will have McCarthy and Cahill in the rotation. Throw in Pennington/Gregorious at shortstop, and the defense should be much improved. Was that worth losing a potential franchise player like Upton, and a talent like Bauer? If Upton never takes the next step and Bauer flames out, this controversial offseason will be seen differently (signed, Capt. Obvious) Also, when considering the Bauer trade, the Diamondbacks' wealth of starting pitching talent should be taken into consideration. Miley had a very good rookie season, Skaggs has potential, Dan Hudson should be back from Tommy John rehab in mid-season. All I'm saying is, there's a chance Towers comes out of this risky offseason relatively unscatched, with the Diamondbacks still having exciting teams the next few years. Have to say though, I am not very impressed by the return on Upton. I think Prado will give them the most value, so they should try signing him to an extension immediately.

You know, reading this thread, I've been wondering why anyone is worried about third base with the Braves.

Then I remembered.


Weird.

If I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, the Braves are thinking/hoping that Juan Francisco can turn into Aramis Ramirez. Which is more than sufficient.

Sam, what happened to zenbitz?

Sam, what happened to zenbitz?

Nothing "in real life." In the OTP thread he was typing about something and then suddenly disappeared for a day, so we decided he'd ascended or something. It's a stupid joke.

Nothing "in real life." In the OTP thread he was typing about something and then suddenly disappeared for a day, so we decided he'd ascended or something. It's a stupid joke.

Eh, he was just making a joke about how lazy he was, and then ending a post mid-sentence.

Thanks, Walt...

These are both supposed to be relative to (park adjusted) league average but there's a 14-run gap there.

That's the part I thought might be park effect differences.

[Oh, and I (obviously?) meant 8.5 wins.]

I don't think I'd want to sign Upton to that deal even if he did put up a 120ish OPS+

If he puts up an 120ish OPS+ he also brings plus base running, and plus outfield defense (built around his plus plus range).

That is a substantial amount of extra value.

Edit: Fangraphs thinks Justin was 2nd most valuable MLB RF in his ages 21-24 seasons, only Bautista put up more RF WAR ( Zobrist played than half his games in RF). Even if you use bWAR, he averaged 3.3 WAR per year or well above average, including two years with injury problems and all at young ages.

So you are saying Bautista is the only right fielder in baseball worth a low risk 2 year deal at $20M/year, and Upton won't be worth one during two of his peak years when MLB salaries are likely to be at least 20% higher than now.