Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, February 04, 2013

BP (Carleton): Fact or Fiction: The Verducci Effect

But they can’t disprove that the Rob Ducey Effect produced Joey Votto.

Last week, Sports Illustrated writer and Jason Parks man-crush Tom Verducci put out his annual column warning about a specific type of player: A young pitcher (25 or younger) who saw a significant increase in his workload in the previous season over the season before that (defined as an increase of at least 30 innings, including postseason and minor-league work). Verducci claims that this sort of pitcher is in danger of either a significant injury and/or a performance decline in 2013 because his 2012 was much busier than his 2011. It’s a proposition that’s become known as the Verducci Effect…

Per Verducci’s criteria, I looked for all players who were 25 or younger and who had an increase in workload of more than 30 innings in the previous season… I considered only pitchers who started 80 percent of their games… I compared only major-league performance in the regular season and required that the pitcher have 50 major-league IP both in the year previous (when he amassed the 30 extra innings) and the “year after” in which the Verducci rule predicts doom… There were 75 “Verduccis” and 137 controls…

To say that pitchers on the Verducci list are more likely to experience an injury is correct. However, it’s actually the control group that is more likely to land on the DL. In fact, 29.2 percent of controls spent time on the DL compared to 24.0 percent of the Verducci group (not significant, for the record)... It’s not being under 25 and overworked. It’s being a pitcher that’s the problem…

Verducci status was not associated with differences year over year in strikeout rate (per batter faced), walk rate, home run rate, or ERA…

The problem of the Verducci Effect formulation is that the sample is far too heterogeneous to expect coherent effects out of it. Maybe the real frontier here is in breaking players down into sub-groups based on how they got onto that list to begin with. It’s much more complex, doesn’t fit nicely onto the page of a magazine, and it’s the way that real research is done.

So here’s to hoping that I don’t have to resurrect this column a year from now. It’s time to just admit that the Verducci Effect doesn’t hold water and move on.

The District Attorney Posted: February 04, 2013 at 05:39 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
James Kannengieser
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT - March 2017 NBA thread
(7078 - 1:20pm, Jun 23)
Last: Booey

NewsblogOTP 19 June 2017: Bipartisan baseball: Dems best GOP, give trophy to wounded Scalise
(892 - 1:20pm, Jun 23)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogBaseball’s tumultuous relationship with the female fan
(3 - 1:16pm, Jun 23)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogRecounting the many ways baseball has changed in 20 years
(35 - 1:15pm, Jun 23)
Last: SBB, Live from the Alt-Center

NewsblogBeyond the Box Score: On the lack of interest in Albert Pujols’s 600 HR and Adrián Beltré’s pursuit of 3,000 hits
(65 - 1:01pm, Jun 23)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

Sox TherapyRed Sox Retire Rich Garces' Number
(5 - 12:49pm, Jun 23)
Last: Man o' Schwar

NewsblogJarrod Dyson breaks up perfect game with bunt – and Justin Verlander isn’t mad
(37 - 12:08pm, Jun 23)
Last: My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto

NewsblogCENTRAL PARK - JULY 1, 2017 10 AM - BBTF ANNUAL SOFTBALL EXTRAVAGANZA
(246 - 12:03pm, Jun 23)
Last: villageidiom

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 6-23-2017
(2 - 11:53am, Jun 23)
Last: Batman

NewsblogKyle Schwarber headed back to Triple-A Iowa
(40 - 11:45am, Jun 23)
Last: Charles S. hopes his opening day is b4 opening day

NewsblogNegro Leagues Baseball Museum receives $1 million gift from MLB, players union
(11 - 11:34am, Jun 23)
Last: vortex of dissipation

NewsblogThe Mets Are Pissed At Yasiel Puig For Admiring His Homer
(58 - 10:37am, Jun 23)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

Sox TherapyMinor Moves
(1 - 9:03am, Jun 23)
Last: villageidiom

NewsblogYour 2017 MLB local broadcaster rankings
(51 - 7:41am, Jun 23)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Bronson Y Pollo

NewsblogCan rising prospect be roundabout solution to Yankees’ 1st base problem? | New York Post
(9 - 1:58am, Jun 23)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

Page rendered in 0.1544 seconds
45 querie(s) executed