Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, February 04, 2013

BP (Carleton): Fact or Fiction: The Verducci Effect

But they can’t disprove that the Rob Ducey Effect produced Joey Votto.

Last week, Sports Illustrated writer and Jason Parks man-crush Tom Verducci put out his annual column warning about a specific type of player: A young pitcher (25 or younger) who saw a significant increase in his workload in the previous season over the season before that (defined as an increase of at least 30 innings, including postseason and minor-league work). Verducci claims that this sort of pitcher is in danger of either a significant injury and/or a performance decline in 2013 because his 2012 was much busier than his 2011. It’s a proposition that’s become known as the Verducci Effect…

Per Verducci’s criteria, I looked for all players who were 25 or younger and who had an increase in workload of more than 30 innings in the previous season… I considered only pitchers who started 80 percent of their games… I compared only major-league performance in the regular season and required that the pitcher have 50 major-league IP both in the year previous (when he amassed the 30 extra innings) and the “year after” in which the Verducci rule predicts doom… There were 75 “Verduccis” and 137 controls…

To say that pitchers on the Verducci list are more likely to experience an injury is correct. However, it’s actually the control group that is more likely to land on the DL. In fact, 29.2 percent of controls spent time on the DL compared to 24.0 percent of the Verducci group (not significant, for the record)... It’s not being under 25 and overworked. It’s being a pitcher that’s the problem…

Verducci status was not associated with differences year over year in strikeout rate (per batter faced), walk rate, home run rate, or ERA…

The problem of the Verducci Effect formulation is that the sample is far too heterogeneous to expect coherent effects out of it. Maybe the real frontier here is in breaking players down into sub-groups based on how they got onto that list to begin with. It’s much more complex, doesn’t fit nicely onto the page of a magazine, and it’s the way that real research is done.

So here’s to hoping that I don’t have to resurrect this column a year from now. It’s time to just admit that the Verducci Effect doesn’t hold water and move on.

The District Attorney Posted: February 04, 2013 at 05:39 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
JE (Jason)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogTrade Chatter - 2015 Deadline
(514 - 1:28pm, Jul 31)
Last: you mess with the meat you get the wada

NewsblogBaseball Hall of Fame to eliminate some inactive voters
(72 - 1:23pm, Jul 31)
Last: Ithaca2323

Newsblog10 Major Trades that Never Were
(13 - 1:20pm, Jul 31)
Last: Greg K

NewsblogPirates acquire Joakim Soira from Tigers | MLB.com
(13 - 1:17pm, Jul 31)
Last: vagab0nd is still a champion

NewsblogOTP - July 2015: Winning the Political Game: Politics is More Like Baseball Than Football
(6142 - 1:16pm, Jul 31)
Last: JE (Jason)

NewsblogYankees remain in Kimbrel market; could active Astros join them? - CBSSports.com
(1 - 1:14pm, Jul 31)
Last: Cargo Cultist

Newsblog7-31-2015 OMNICHATTER/TRADE DEADLINE OMNICHATTER
(7 - 1:08pm, Jul 31)
Last: Perry

NewsblogJon Heyman on Twitter: "carlos gomez and mike fiers go to houston"
(16 - 12:59pm, Jul 31)
Last: Astroenteritis

NewsblogLookout Landing: Ackley Traded to Yankees for Flores and Ramirez
(15 - 12:57pm, Jul 31)
Last: Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)

NewsblogTwitter: Giants get Leake
(18 - 12:28pm, Jul 31)
Last: bfan

NewsblogBlue Jays make big score, land Tigers lefty David Price - CBSSports.com
(43 - 12:23pm, Jul 31)
Last: RJ in TO

NewsblogRangers Get a New Ace in Cole Hamels
(40 - 12:00pm, Jul 31)
Last: base ball chick

NewsblogThe Official Mets Fan Self-Immolation Thread
(398 - 11:50am, Jul 31)
Last: Adam Starblind

NewsblogOT: Soccer June 2015
(1429 - 11:37am, Jul 31)
Last: Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

NewsblogLet’s make a steal | NBC SportsWorld
(18 - 11:17am, Jul 31)
Last: Rennie's Tenet

Page rendered in 0.1827 seconds
46 querie(s) executed