Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, February 04, 2013

BP (Carleton): Fact or Fiction: The Verducci Effect

But they can’t disprove that the Rob Ducey Effect produced Joey Votto.

Last week, Sports Illustrated writer and Jason Parks man-crush Tom Verducci put out his annual column warning about a specific type of player: A young pitcher (25 or younger) who saw a significant increase in his workload in the previous season over the season before that (defined as an increase of at least 30 innings, including postseason and minor-league work). Verducci claims that this sort of pitcher is in danger of either a significant injury and/or a performance decline in 2013 because his 2012 was much busier than his 2011. It’s a proposition that’s become known as the Verducci Effect…

Per Verducci’s criteria, I looked for all players who were 25 or younger and who had an increase in workload of more than 30 innings in the previous season… I considered only pitchers who started 80 percent of their games… I compared only major-league performance in the regular season and required that the pitcher have 50 major-league IP both in the year previous (when he amassed the 30 extra innings) and the “year after” in which the Verducci rule predicts doom… There were 75 “Verduccis” and 137 controls…

To say that pitchers on the Verducci list are more likely to experience an injury is correct. However, it’s actually the control group that is more likely to land on the DL. In fact, 29.2 percent of controls spent time on the DL compared to 24.0 percent of the Verducci group (not significant, for the record)... It’s not being under 25 and overworked. It’s being a pitcher that’s the problem…

Verducci status was not associated with differences year over year in strikeout rate (per batter faced), walk rate, home run rate, or ERA…

The problem of the Verducci Effect formulation is that the sample is far too heterogeneous to expect coherent effects out of it. Maybe the real frontier here is in breaking players down into sub-groups based on how they got onto that list to begin with. It’s much more complex, doesn’t fit nicely onto the page of a magazine, and it’s the way that real research is done.

So here’s to hoping that I don’t have to resurrect this column a year from now. It’s time to just admit that the Verducci Effect doesn’t hold water and move on.

The District Attorney Posted: February 04, 2013 at 05:39 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Guts
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogNLCS Game 5 OMNICHATTER, for October 19, 2017
(269 - 11:29pm, Oct 19)
Last: Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com

NewsblogDeadspin: Please Enjoy(?) 21 Years Of Joe Buck Hyping Forgotten Fox Shows
(7 - 11:27pm, Oct 19)
Last: The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott)

NewsblogOT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread
(373 - 11:21pm, Oct 19)
Last: don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all

NewsblogOTP 16 October 2017: Sorry, Yankee fans: Trump’s claim that he can ensure victory simply isn’t true
(1430 - 11:17pm, Oct 19)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogYankees Thumbs Down Guy is now getting his own bobblehead
(6 - 11:10pm, Oct 19)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogDo the Cubs realize how badly the Dodgers insulted them on national TV? - Chicago Tribune
(37 - 10:20pm, Oct 19)
Last: Optimistic Moses Taylor, optimist

NewsblogTV Simpsons documentary about 'Homer at the Bat' episode to air Sunday
(18 - 8:51pm, Oct 19)
Last: Lassus

NewsblogALCS Notebook: Cashman on Yankee Analytics, Luhnow on Hiring Hinch | FanGraphs Baseball
(19 - 8:45pm, Oct 19)
Last: jmurph

Sox TherapyQuestioning the Winter
(7 - 8:22pm, Oct 19)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogCubs hold off Dodgers in Game 4 of NLCS | MLB.com
(35 - 6:33pm, Oct 19)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogYankees, Masahiro Tanaka take 3-2 ALCS lead | MLB.com
(7 - 6:30pm, Oct 19)
Last: Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB)

NewsblogOT: New Season August 2017 Soccer Thread
(1170 - 6:29pm, Oct 19)
Last: Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB)

NewsblogDallas Keuchel embraces the ‘calmness’ of being Yankees killer | New York Post
(66 - 5:01pm, Oct 19)
Last: Satan Says

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-19-2017
(16 - 4:44pm, Oct 19)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogLCS OMNICHATTER for October 18, 2017
(464 - 4:04pm, Oct 19)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network)

Page rendered in 0.1322 seconds
45 querie(s) executed