How long ago did you come up with ZiPS?
Szymborski: The genesis of it was there’s a [person] who contributes to Baseball Think Factory named Chris Dial, and in the late ’90s, they were talking about how someone could make a projection system that’s very basic and get most of the way there, in a way kind of a primordial version of Marcel which is a tabulator.
Before 2002, I was thinking maybe I should try my hand at a projection system. At that time, Voros McCracken’s FIPS research was fairly new, so I wanted to [align my idea.] That’s why I made it rhyme with FIPS, and the Z stands for Szymborski, the second letter of my name. I mean, it’s just a little side thing that started. Then I decided to do hitter projections, because it seemed kind of stupid to do because there were not hitter projections. And then over time, as computers got faster, I could do more things. Over time, it became a pretty complex system… I’m pretty happy with how it’s worked out.
Do you think you have another ZiPS idea in you or do you think that’s going to be your big thing?
Szymborski: I dunno. I always kind of think of myself more as a writer than a statistics developer, but I have more ideas how to use it. I continually refine my aging models and long-term projections and the different things I can do with it. I certainly hope there are other ideas in me, but I don’t have those ideas yet. Hopefully they will develop over the next few years.
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1. Swoboda is freedom Posted: September 20, 2011 at 05:25 PM (#3930934)That would be about the time Scott McGregor retired, right?
WRONG. Stats takes all the fun out of it. You're not allowed to enjoy the game anymore.
Good interview. I had no idea Dan was a daytrader at one point. I just kinda assumed everyone here was either in academics or a lawyer.
#######? Mensch? Jackass? Guy? ##########? ############? Commentator?
Yeah, during those wild, wacky days with the tech boom, you could make some money doing that. Eventually, a lot of that fun was eliminated by some reforms in the market systems, big firms catching on, and the end of the bull market. Once that trickled out, I did private tutoring.
"Crazy cat"
I believe "raving lunatic" would be the most accurate.
"Mets fan"?
Treder already said that one.
a movie by steven spielberg
act 1, scene 1
long shot of a typical suburban home, it's late at night. camera pulls in to small basement window at ground level from which emanates the only light in the house.
voice: 'eureka!'
... nah, forget it.
The other Mets starters have ERA+ of 84, 84, 85 and 84. Way to break the curve, Dickey.
In other Mets starters news, they have only had 10 starts from the 6th starters this year. That has got to be the lowest Mets total of this millenium, at least.
Of course, that rotation had quality in addition to regularity.
Also, the Mets home run leader has been on the Giants for six weeks.
Of course this may be the worst pitching and fielding Mets team I have ever seen
That's the original take. But then things fall apart, the Berg decides to walk away, and Universal puts it in turnaround.
Then it gets picked up by Paramount and handed to Michael Bay.
SZYMORSKIBALL
A Michael Bay Film
ACT 1
SCENE INT SZYM BASEMENT
Camera shot: closeup of the eyes of a young man at a computer keyboard, thinking deep thoughts. Camera pulls back, revealing head, then entire body, then entire basement, then basement window, then neighborhood. MEGAN FOX walks up to the window and crouches down. She peers in the window with a sneer, then reaches behind her to grab a bucket of water to dump on herself and tears her meniscus in the process.
MEGAN FOX: "Oh!" (softly)
The house then explodes for no adequately-explored reason.
THE END
but let's shorten the name, make the basement a spaceship that folds up into a taco truck and lets get that chick from 'new girl' ... etc.
I bet that's not true. It just seems that way.
And in those 6 weeks has climbed to _7th_ on the Giants HR leader board (counting only Giants HRs). If he has a hot last week he could hit 4th.
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