Koufax is a peak case, and Santana's peak is less than Koufax's, even if the total career WAR is similar.

Santana

                   
WAR               Awards
8.4       CYA-1  MVP-6
7.3    AS CYA-1  MVP-7
6.9    AS CYA-3
6.9       CYA-3  MVP-14
4.7    AS CYA-5        GG
4.5                
4.0       CYA-7
3.1    AS
2.5                
1.5                
0.2                
0.0                              

Koufax

                    
WAR.             Awards
10.3    AS CYA-1  MVP-1
10.0    AS CYA-1  MVP-2
7.6     AS CYA-1  MVP-2
7.0     AS CYA-3  MVP-17
5.3     AS        MVP-18
4.2     AS        MVP-24
2.0                 
1.3                
1.2                 
1.0                 
0.8                 
-0.4                                

Right now I'd put Santana in Appier/Cone type territory. Outside looking in, but close enough that 2-3 seasons at his current 2012 pace get him in the conversation.

Santana certainly established that he had Hall of Fame peak talent, but as bob and Greg note, that's not quite the same as establishing a Hall of Fame career. Vida Blue, Mark Langston, Frank Viola – they too clearly served notice that they were as good as anybody, but they didn't stay at that top level for very long. Ron Guidry comes to mind, too, just to keep all the analogies among left-handers …

Ron Guidry comes to mind, too

Uh-oh.

What did I say, is "Ron Guidry" a red rag to a longthreader or something? :-D

Santana's only 33 and lefthanded. I'd bet he has at least 5 productive years left before we need to have this discussion.

Just to chime in though - Santana's a much better hitter than Koufax

What did I say, is "Ron Guidry" a red rag to a longthreader or something? :-D

TommyfromCt. has been known to go on and on for days re Guidry...with interesting and often fluctuating reasoning and logic behind his arguments

Ah. Anyway, the resemblance is there. Both Santana and Guidry made Cy Young ballots in seven different seasons (Santana's being consecutive, Guidry's not). Guidry has two ERA titles in a somewhat longer career (34 more wins in 48 more starts, to date), Santana has three ERA titles. I stand by my vague and unknowingly rash comparison :)

Vida Blue, Mark Langston, Frank Viola – they too clearly served notice that they were as good as anybody, but they didn't stay at that top level for very long.

Santana led the league in pitcher WAR three seasons running, finishing 1st, 3rd, and 1st in the Cy Young voting. (He was damn good in '07 and '08 as well.)

-Vida Blue had one great season (one better than Santana's best), but nothing like that three- or five-year run.
-Mark Langston? I guess he had a nice run from 1989-1993, but it really isn't close to Santana's.
-Frank Viola had three very good seasons, but again he didn't dominate his competition like Santana.

David Cone and Bret Saberhagen are the two guys I thought of. Both truly dominated their leagues, but needed a bit more length to their careers for a Hall of Fame case.

EDIT: I should add, because I spent the whole post disagreeing with BDC, that his Guidry comp seems reasonable to me.

Anyway, the resemblance is there. Both Santana and Guidry made Cy Young ballots in seven different seasons (Santana's being consecutive, Guidry's not). Guidry has two ERA titles in a somewhat longer career (34 more wins in 48 more starts, to date), Santana has three ERA titles. I stand by my vague and unknowingly rash comparison :)

And at their respective peaks, they were both considered to be the best pitchers in baseball. Of course all of these comparisons would be meaningful only if Santana's arm were to fall off tomorrow.

Santana should be a Hall of Famer. Winning 2 Cy Young Awards pretty much gets you in unless you do next to nothing in the rest of your career. It doesn't seem right that you have to match or exceed Sandy Koufax to have a peak HOF case. Saberhagen has 2 Cy Youngs and 3 other healthy seasons.

Saberhagen and Cone both made the HOM, which is more important to me than the HOF. If Santana's as good as they are, he has a good shot at HOM.

2 Cys should not get you in any more than 2 MVPs (it should get you less!). So says Maris.

My heart says "Yes", my brain says "Answer hazy, ask again in five years."

Sandy was still in his prime when he was forced to retire. Too bad Bill James said Sandy's accomplishments were based on park effects and era, yet Johan gets a free pass for pitching with the Twins and Mets(and now we're back in a pitcher's era).

Glad you guys think Win total will be ignored by the time Johan is eligible. Yup, by then sabermetics will be mainstream in the BBWAA, and the will actually be inducting by using WAR.

As Bill James showed in his HOF book, you can't just compare your favorite pitcher to one pitcher already in the Hall (the article does this with Koufax, who is every stat head's whipping boy.)

Johan will be lucky to break 200 wins based on his health and playing for a cursed team like the Mets.



Sim players

Jim Maloney (915)
John Tudor (914)
Harry Brecheen (913)
Sal Maglie (911)
Denny McLain (910)
Roy Oswalt (908)
Mort Cooper (905)
Preacher Roe (904)
Josh Beckett (900)
Cliff Lee (897)

By age

Roy Oswalt (940)

Koufax, who is every stat head's whipping boy

He is? I've never heard of him being whipped in effigy at SABR conventions. Has he been?

Koufax, who is every stat head's whipping boy

This seems to be an attempt at creating a pretty overstuffed strawman. I don't know of anybody who's ever thought about baseball who doesn't believe that Koufax was a lights-out absolute hell of a pitcher for a few years, or opines that his "accomplishments were based on park effects and era." (They may have been enhanced by park effect and era, but if they'd been "based on" them, Claude Osteen would be in the Hall of Fame.) There were some HOM voters who didn't go for him, but that was because his career was not long enough to meet their criteria. And its brevity would seem to be just as objective a fact as its excellence.

The Guidry comparison seems apt.

He's about 20 points of ERA+ ahead of Cone and about 1000 innings behind. That gets him to comparable value but Cone is on the outside looking into the HOF, and rightfully so. I think if Johan gets to 200 wins, he'll get in. To do that he probably needs another 1000-1500 IP. If he does that, he should have a resume pretty comparable to Kevin Brown, but (presumably) without the postseason collapse, steroid accusations and generally being regarded as a dick. The HOF seems to have an extremely high bar for today's starting pitchers though, so you never know.

I think at least some of the "whipping" Koufax gets from the stat heads is just counter reaction to the numerous non-stathead baby boomers who will insist unto their last breath that Koufax was the greatest pitcher of all time and stick their fingers in their ears while chanting, "I'm not listening" if you try to argue otherwise.

The HOF seems to have an extremely high bar for today's starting pitchers though, so you never know.

And with Maddux, Clemens, Johnson, Glavine and Pedro in the pipeline, their standards aren't going to drop anytime soon. Mussina, Schilling and Smoltz will be interesting cases -- I think all three will make it. Barring a third CYA, I think #18 has it about right -- he's got to get himself to 3000 IP and 200 wins to have a shot at being elected.

For some reason I had misremembered Cone's career value. He's actually 9 WAR ahead of Santana today, so I think it's safe to say that Santana isn't quite deserving based on his resume at this point.

Slight difference in Sandy's and Johan's post-season records. SK 4-3,8 GP, 7 GS, 0.95 ERA, .825 WHIP, 6i K in 57 IP (did allow a few unearned runs, 4 of 10 total, primarily thanks to 3 Dog in 1966). JS 1-3, 11 GP, 5 GS, 34 IP, 3.97 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 32 K but was hurt by rough primarily relief outings early in his career. Has allowed just 3 ER in his last 22 post-season IP but the peripherals (22 IP, 19 HT, 5 BB, 20 K, 1 HR) don't really support it (small sample size warning).

David Cone and Bret Saberhagen are the two guys I thought of. Both truly dominated their leagues, but needed a bit more length to their careers for a Hall of Fame case.

Tim Lincecum may be the newest member of the group.

Consecutive Peak counts too.

Most seasons 6 WAR or more last 10 years

[24]
Consecutive Peak counts too.

Most seasons 6 WAR or more last 10 years

Rk Yrs
1 Johan Santana 4

I count 3, not 4.

                     
Year   Age  Tm Lg WAR
2000    21 MIN AL 0.0
2001    22 MIN AL 0.2
2002    23 MIN AL 2.5
2003    24 MIN AL 4.0
2004    25 MIN AL 8.4
2005    26 MIN AL 6.9
2006    27 MIN AL 7.3
2007    28 MIN AL 4.7
2008    29 NYM NL 6.9
2009    30 NYM NL 3.1
2010    31 NYM NL 4.5
                     
2012    33 NYM NL 1.5

The way I wrote that was misleading...I didn't mean consecutive years over 6.

However To me....3 straight years at virtually 7 or higher, one "down" year at 4.7 follwed by another virtual 7...(yeah...rounding the 6.9's...) It's just more impressive to me to be at that high a level in 4 out of 5 years than it is to have those 4 high level season spread out over 10 years with injury plagued or poor performance years in between.

When you are talking HOM, it doesn't matter...but when you are talking HOF, it's part of the fabric of what makes a guy "feel" like a Hall of Famer. It goes to simply having a sustained run where you are considered the best in the game, or at least one of the best 2 or 3, for an extended run. Thats what Hall of Famers "feel like" to most people.

Obviously a crappy decline can mute that feeling though. (See Dale Murphy)

I didn't mean that 2 Cy Youngs should be an automatic ticket to Cooperstown. Rather, I was stating a historical fact: Winning 2 Cy Youngs is a major part of a Hall of Fame resume, and to fail to make the Hall of Fame after winning 2 Cy Youngs means you basically have almost no value in the rest of your career. That's certainly correct for McLain and, to a lesser extent, Saberhagen.

Johan has quite a bit more than that. For one thing, he could have easily won 3 Cy Youngs in a row, and perhaps should have. He had a Cy Young-worthy season in 2008 (Lincecum won and deserved it, but in many years, Santana would have been deserving. He had quite a better year than the No. 2 guy on the ballot.) So that's 5 years out of 6 where he was the best or second-best pitcher in the league, so firmly deserving of "Best Pitcher in Baseball" over that time. That's a HOF-worthy peak, and he has a few other pretty good years of value (130 ERA+ type years). There isn't anyone with that type of resume who hasn't made the Hall of Fame yet, and no one who will fall short barring steroid problems.

Johan's credentials are quite a bit better than Guidry, Appier, Saberhagen, Cone. I'm pretty sure the closest any non-HOFer comes to this type of great stretch is Dwight Gooden, and I'm certain no one would argue Gooden is more deserving. (Another guy might be Carl Mays.)

[27] Winning 2 Cy Youngs is a major part of a Hall of Fame resume, and to fail to make the Hall of Fame after winning 2 Cy Youngs means you basically have almost no value in the rest of your career. That's certainly correct for McLain and, to a lesser extent, Saberhagen.

Multiple Winners of Cy Young Awards

7 Roger Clemens

5 Randy Johnson

4 Steve Carlton
4 Greg Maddux

3 Sandy Koufax
3 Pedro Martinez
3 Jim Palmer
3 Tom Seaver

2 Bob Gibson
2 Tom Glavine
2 Roy Halladay
2 Tim Lincecum
2 Denny McLain
2 Gaylord Perry
2 Bret Saberhagen
2 Johan Santana

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/mvp_cya.shtml

There's a difference between saying that someone's "accomplishments" were based on park and era and that his "raw ERA" was based on them. I read Bill as having said the second one. He was, of course, completely correct. - Brock Hanke

"Saberhagen and Cone both made the HOM"

well, in the "ok, most of us wouldn't elect as many people as the HOF has, but since we will, here are 2 more guys better than the bums who don't belong in the HOF"

nttawwt

7 Roger Clemens: >300 wins, >3000 K

5 Randy Johnson: >300 wins, >3000 K

4 Steve Carlton: >300 wins, >3000 K
4 Greg Maddux: >300 wins, >3000 K

3 Sandy Koufax -- the one kinda like Santana
3 Pedro Martinez: 219 wins, >3000 K
3 Jim Palmer: 268 wins
3 Tom Seaver: >300 wins, >3000 K

2 Bob Gibson: 251 wins, >3000 K
2 Tom Glavine: >300 wins
2 Roy Halladay
2 Tim Lincecum
2 Denny McLain: 131 wins
2 Gaylord Perry: >300 wins, >3000 K
2 Bret Saberhagen: 167 wins
2 Johan Santana


Winning 2+ Cy Youngs had virtually nothing to do with why those guys were elected. They might have helped make Palmer 1st ballot.

One CYA is 40-45 wins; 3 is maybe 70. Add another 150-200 wins to that and you've got a case for election. Otherwise, as a starter, you better be Koufax.

Actually, if Santana were to retire today, his best (near-perfect) HoF comp would be Dizzy Dean.

I think 2 Cy Youngs (or two MVPs) don't necessarily get you into Cooperstown, but I imagine they change to question in the minds of voters to "why not him?" rather than "why him?"

The flip side is that if you lop off 80-100 wins, Carlton, Seaver, Maddux, Perry and possibly several others are still Hall of Famers.

The point is that winning 2 Cy Young is something only the greatest of pitchers do. There are plenty of guys like Lamarr Hoyt or Bob Welch who win one Cy Young that they didn't deserve because they got lucky or something. And more guys like Vida Blue or Fernando or Orel Hershiser who win one that they deserve but never quite reach that level again.

Winning the Cy Young is representative of being the best pitcher in the league and if you are capable of being the best pitcher in the league for more than a year, generally this is something done only by the greatest of pitchers.

Funny, I've always remembered Randy Jones as winning two Cy Young Awards, but come to find that he finished second to Tom Seaver in one of those years.

Thanks to all who seconded the Guidry comparison. I think with my less successful suggestions (Blue, Langston, Viola) I was just trying to think of left-handers who established themselves pretty near the top of their current class of starting pitchers for a few years. (Jones too would fit that category.) But Santana and Guidry established themselves as the best pitcher in their league in a year or two or three. A notable peak achievement, but it's not Warren Spahn or Steve Carlton or Randy Johnson, either.

The flip side is that if you lop off 80-100 wins, Carlton, Seaver, Maddux, Perry and possibly several others are still Hall of Famers.

Sure, but lop 80-100 wins off those guys and they're still 230-240+ wins. Santana sits at 136. If Santana gets himself to about 220 wins, he's got a real shot. That will require at least another 1000 IP. Then he starts to look like Schilling or Drysdale.