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Tuesday, June 05, 2012
Instead, let me focus on the period between 1980 and the present, during which the global temperature increased by about 1F while home runs/team/game increased by well over 30%. The analysis presented here is that an increase of average temperature by 1F would result in an increase in home runs by about 0.6%, a factor of over 50 below the actual increase. Clearly climate change cannot account for the dramatic increase in home runs since 1980. It can’t even come close!
In summary, I have verified that an elevated temperature does indeed lead to longer fly ball distances and more home runs, exactly as everyone expects. But more importantly, I have quantified the size of these effects with reasonable precision based on analysis of actual home run data. Finally, I have shown that the large increase in home runs over the past few decades is far greater than can be accounted for by a modest increase in global temperature. So, Tim, I’m sorry your idea does not hold up to careful scrutiny, but I thank you for throwing me a fat pitch right down the middle!
Thanks to Hot Air Barnald.
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