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Thursday, July 03, 2008

BPro: Seidman: Max Scherzer talks about his own numbers-crunching.

20 Minutes into the Sabermetric Future…with Max.

MS: Last year my brother came across the whole BABIP theory and explained it to me, but I was initially very skeptical because I just could not imagine all pitchers were essentially the same. As my season went on, I kept an eye on it, and he was right—pitchers really do not have control over the balls put in play, [that’s on] the defense and luck. I’m very numbers-oriented myself, so I kept digging into this wealth of information. Sure enough, the K/BB and HR/9 were really the driving numbers behind the success of pitching. It really made sense to me, but the pitcher inside couldn’t comprehend that, of everything involved, just three outcomes can determine one’s success.

ES: So part of you embraces the BABIP and three outcomes of controllable skill, but the other part struggles to comprehend it. How do you deal with that?

MS: Well, I’ve been challenging Alex over and over on different scenarios to see how they affect the three outcomes, and it never seems to fail. By digging deeper and deeper into the numbers, it really has allowed me to take away the fear of failure.

ES: How so?

MS: I’m going to have success, and I will have failure. So when failure comes, it really has allowed me to brush it off and say it was meant to happen, and the next 10 batters will never do that. Basically, it has allowed me to be even more aggressive and work ahead better.

Repoz Posted: July 03, 2008 at 10:04 PM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: sabermetrics

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1. ValueArb Posted: July 03, 2008 at 10:25 PM (#2842364)

So cool that Scherzer understands this. Now if only Oliver Perez's fans could!

2. Zach Posted: July 03, 2008 at 10:47 PM (#2842381)

So who wants to sign up to write the Scherzy Logs?

3. Esoteric Posted: July 03, 2008 at 11:08 PM (#2842387)

First Bannister, now Scherzer. Let's pray this is a trend with respect to young pitchers.

And I totally understand what he's saying with regards to intellectually understanding the statistical principle at work, yet emotionally and instinctively wanting to reject it. But of course the moral of the story is that intuition and instinct are pretty damn poor judges of mathematical and physical realities...just ask the average kid which item hits the ground first when dropped from a height, an anvil or a golf ball?

4. Chase Utley, Shooty's Favorite Robot (Joey Belle) Posted: July 03, 2008 at 11:33 PM (#2842431)

just ask the average kid which item hits the ground first when dropped from a height, an anvil or a golf ball?

Clearly it's the anvil because it's heavier.

5. Crashburn Alley Posted: July 04, 2008 at 12:10 AM (#2842529)

#4, ic wat u did thar.

6. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 04, 2008 at 12:34 AM (#2842596)

What's the plan with Scherzer? Is he coming back up soon? The guy has nothing left to prove in the minors.

EDIT: It turns out he has shoulder inflammation and is on the AAA disabled list.

7. Jonk Posted: July 04, 2008 at 12:40 AM (#2842614)

I didn't know until reading the postscript of that interview that Scherzer is on the minor-league DL now. Hope he's all right.

8. Eric J. Seidman Posted: July 04, 2008 at 12:54 AM (#2842664)

Yeah, he had an MRI and it showed he had shoulder inflammation but the rest and strengthening program should him "up and at 'em" in no time. The minor league demotion was more because he was having trouble going back to back days and the DBacks wanted to get someone who could do that up to the bigs while simultaneously allowing Scherzer to start rather than relieve.

9. Petuniaviles Posted: July 04, 2008 at 02:55 AM (#2842979)

MS: The pitch selection is really just a feel. You have a pretty good idea how you want to pitch each hitter, but nothing is ever set in stone.

Unless, of course, Chris Snyder says it is.

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Thursday, July 03, 2008

BPro: Seidman: Max Scherzer talks about his own numbers-crunching.

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