* The Padres (83.37 percent to make the playoffs after games of September 20th) would rank 50th all-time if they miss;
* The Brewers (86.65 percent on July 2nd) would rank 40th if they miss;
* The Cubs (95.58 percent on September 23rd) would rank 12th if they miss;
* The Diamondbacks (96.64 percent on September 24th) would rank seventh if they miss;
* The Mets (99.80 percent on September 12th) would rank second all-time if they miss, making good on a 500-to-1 shot against.

2 is better than 7, right? So I vote that the Mets miss out on the playoffs. Who's with me?

But where would the Rockies rank if they _made_ it?

2 is better than 7, right? So I vote that the Mets miss out on the playoffs. Who's with me?

Think big, like the odds of both 2 and 7 happening in the same season.

But where would the Rockies rank if they _made_ it?

Yeah. Everything is so negative here. We need to accentuate the positive.

However, the notion that this year’s playoff races have turned into something very special is absolutely correct.

If you're using "special" as a euphemism for "retard fight."

Interesting that Leo Durocher managed two of the top six collapsers but also managed a team that caught one of them. Never a dull moment with Leo around.

Not content with hijacking threads, the Mets are now hijacking all of Hot Topics. How many "collapse" threads can their be?

Interesting that Leo Durocher managed two of the top six collapsers but also managed a team that caught one of them.

To be fair, the 1941 Dodgers hardly collapsed. The Cards just had the greatest stretch run in baseball history.

He was also a coach with the 1962 Dodgers, who aren't on the list, but led by 3 games with 6 games left in the regular season (not including the 3-game add-on when they ended tied with the Giants).

He was also a coach with the 1962 Dodgers, who aren't on the list, but led by 3 games with 6 games left in the regular season (not including the 3-game add-on when they ended tied with the Giants).

He was at perhaps his most toxic in his auto-bio when writing about that one- which he blamed squarely on Walt Alston (who I guess committed the unforgivable sin of having the job Leo wanted)

He claimed the collapse was 100% due to Alston's insistence on the most conservative strategies imaginable when the season wound down. No hit and runs, no stolen bases. Pinch hitting, intentional walks, all by the book.

Since we now have BBREF, I looked at the splits, the 1962 Dodgers had more SBs in September than in any other month. Only 10 sac bunts, very few GDPs- the problem was that they simply weren't hitting: .242/.311/.338 for the month. he may be right about one(1) thing- they gave up a TON of intentional walks that month, twice any other month. - that's not a good thing.

The Tigers (93.51% on July 20th)
The Mets (99.80 percent on September 12th)

This is proof that God hates me.

Oh, and what were the Yankees chances at not making the playoffs on, say, July 4th, when they were 40-42, 11.5 back of the Sox and 8.5 back of the Tigers (not to mention 6.5 back of Seattle and 2 GB of the Twins)?

Oh, and what were the Yankees chances at not making the playoffs on, say, July 4th, when they were 40-42, 11.5 back of the Sox and 8.5 back of the Tigers (not to mention 6.5 back of Seattle and 2 GB of the Twins)?

According to BP's stats, 85.4%. July 2 is as bad as it got, at 90.6%.

Arizona, on the other hand, was at 97.7% on July 21.

I think the final list that Silver comes up with is probably pretty accurate, but all of these odds strike me as too high. I find it hard to believe that ANY team could have a 96% chance of making the playoffs on June 6th (2002 Red Sox, #11 all-time collapse) and there's no way that the Angels really had a 99.988% chance of making the playoffs on August 20th in 1995. Does anybody know if BP's ever checked to see if 90% of the teams that they give a 90% chance of making the playoffs have actually, in fact, made the playoffs?

On August 17, the Tigers, Indians and Yankees were all about dead even:

Detroit 67-54, 59.5% playoff chance
Cleveland 66-54, 56.1%
New York 67-54, 59.5%

As long as they didn't fall apart -- and they didn't, going 20-18 since -- they'd make it. Assuming, of course, both NY and Clev didn't go on tears...which is exactly (28-10 and 24-13, respectively) what happened.

In future years, people will look at 2007, not 2006, as the year of the Tigers' late-season collapse...when just the opposite happened!

As long as they didn't fall apart -- and they didn't, going 20-18 since -- they'd make it.

I think if you told the Tigers on August 17th that they would finish with 88-90 wins, they would have assumed no playoff appearance. From that point, it wasn't a huge "collapse" but a mild one -- they certainly performed worse than most would have assumed necessary.

Don't remind me of the Tigers missing the playoffs, I am trying to stay happy with winning 90 games perhaps despite having an average/inconsistent pitching staff (again Chad Durbin finished 4th in games started). The bullpen was killed by injuries to its 2 best players. And losing Gary Sheffield hurt a whole lot as well.

Am I wrong to assume the pitching staff is going to look like: Verlander, Rogers, Bonderman, Miller, and Jurrjens next season?

The Tigers basically had the same season this year that the White Sox had last year, from pennant winners to a "disappointing" 90 wins. Better hope you change that pattern for 2008 ...

The rest of the playoffs are easy to predict now:

At the end of today, the NL East will be tied, and the NL Central will be down to a game, while the Diamondbacks will have opened a 2 game lead with 3 to go in the West.

The Phillies get to take advantage of the Nationals, while the Mets could take advantage of the Marlins, but might not win a game theh rest of the season. If the Phillies take 2 of 3, they'll win the division.

The Brewers and Padres series features two teams in the midst of collapse, but the Padres are collapsing more, and their offense is decimated. Meanwhile, the Cubs actually have to face a Reds team that's throwing its two best starters against them. And it's the Reds against the Cubs, so the Brewers have a big advantage in the Central.

The Padres continued collapse gives the Diamondbacks the division, but that became all but official today. The only thing that's too close to call is the wild card; it's more likely to be the Padres or Mets than the Rockies, though.

I still say that the Mets' best bet might be to fire Randolph tonight. It might light a fire under the team. Replace him with Rickey.

Vaux, do you post stuff just to irritate Met fans?

My reasons for posting that are very complicated, and they have nothing to do with a desire to irritate Met fans.

The Brewers are doing their best to keep the Cubs off the choke list.

Brewers down 4 runs right now. Maybe the Cubs can back in without winning a game. :)

To be fair, the Cubs started Trachsel today - which is basically a forfeit.