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Sunday, November 11, 2012
i thought someone would post a mvp finalist article but since it didn’t happen just wanted to toss this out there given that there was speculation that braun might finish well down the ballot. i am sticking with my 3rd place finish prediction. i don’t think the mvp voters are nearly as needlessly vindictive as hof voters
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1. Greg K Posted: November 11, 2012 at 07:58 AM (#4299957)Quick skim of the names my votes would go
AL MVP - Trout
NL MVP - Posey (but Braun and McCutchen aren't exactly miles behind)
AL CY - Verlander
NL CY - Dickey (could easily be Kershaw too, but this is funner)
AL ROY - Trout
NL ROY - Harper
NL Cy Young and NL MVP look like the only close ones. Maybe Miley for the NL Rookie?
NL MVP - Posey.
AL CY - Verlander
NL CY - Dickey
AL ROY - Trout
NL ROY - Harper
There was. It didn't get a lot of response.
They're not. The working beat guys who vote on the season awards have become far more like us in a lot of ways than they are like their predecessors, though its the old timers who still control the Hall of Fame vote (and will for quite a while).
That's what it would appear. It's new this year with these awards (though it was attempted, really badly, last year with the Gold Gloves and repeated again this year).
NL MVP: NL guy with the most WAR
AL ROY: AL guy with the most WAR that meets the rookie eligibility requirements
NL ROY: NL guy with the most WAR that meets the rookie eligibility requirements
AL Cy Young: AL guy with the most WAR that is a pitcher
NL Cy Young: NL guy with the most WAR that is a pitcher
AL MVP: Trout
NL MVP: Posey
AL ROY: Trout
NL ROY: Harper
AL CY: Verlander
NL CY: Dickey
What I think will happen:
AL MVP: Cabrera
NL MVP: Posey
AL ROY: Trout
NL ROY: Harper
AL CY: Price
NL CY: Gonzalez
I think he and the two rookies are the locks. The Cys are less certain (particularly in the NL), and I wouldn't be surprised if Trout wins the AL MVP.
Clayton Kershaw led the NL in ERA by 20 points ahead of RA Dickey. He was second in adjusted ERA+, two points behind Johnny Cueto and ten ahead of Dickey. He was second in K and IP, trailing Dickey by just four innings and one K, and ahead of Cueto by 10 IP and 60 Ks. He led the league in RA-based WAR and FIP-based WAR. Kershaw by a small margin faced the toughest opponent hitters (opponent TAv of .274, compared to .272 for Cueto and .270 for Dickey).
The differences aren't huge, and none of these guys (or even Gio Gonzalez, who is nonetheless clearly behind the top three) would be a disgraceful selection. But Kershaw deserves it.
Ichiro's team won 116 games. Trout's team missed the playoffs. I'm betting that'll make somewhat of a difference.
I think if Cabrera wins, it will be because he did something historically significant that hadn't been accomplished in 44 years. Otherwise, it would have been Trout's.
When did the "Triple Crown" of BA/HR/RBI become "historically significant"?
I can't give you an exact date, if that's what you're asking. But the Triple Crown has sure as hell been significant for as long as I've been following baseball.
And Giambi was better than Cabrera.
See number 20
With Trout, Baltimore or Oakland probably clinch too early.
Cabrera 2012: 330/393/606, 165 ERA+, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 6.9 WAR
Cabrera 2011: 344/448/586, 179 ERA+, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 7.3 WAR
You can argue Cabrera was slightly better in 2011 -- comes down to OBP vs "production". He finished 4th in MVP voting that year and nobody squawked.
Verlander of course won it.
In 2nd place was a CF who hit 321/376/552 with 32 HR and 105 RBI (impressive), 39 steals, 146 OPS+, 8 WAR and a GG.
Now it was quite close as Ellsbury beat Cabrera by just 50 points. But nobody was whining about WAR they just voted for the good fielding CF slugging the crap out of the ball over Cabrera.
Trout hit 326/399/564 with 30 HR and 83 RBI, 49 steals, 171 OPS+ and 10 WAR (did he win a GG?). Anybody who voted Ellsbury over Cabrera last year but doesn't vote Trout over Cabrera this year is being inconsistent.
Cabrera 2011: 344/448/586, 179 ERA+, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 7.3 WAR
Give that man the MVP!
I agree with MCoA in #15 but the fanboy in me really wants to see Dickey win it. Also, I'm fairly certain it's not going to be Kershaw and I do believe Dickey is the best choice of the others.
No- Adam Jones won.
No- Adam Jones won.
I have no idea whether Jones deserved it or not, but it's incredible to me that Trout didn't win given all of his ESPN highlights this year.
EDIT: And don't cheat if you saw me post the answer before I changed the post....
Correct
Only two BBWAA members per market get to vote, right? It's not the same guys every year. It's quite possible that nobody who voted for Ellsbury last year even had the chance to vote for Trout this year.
Everything you say is true, but I'm still rooting for Dickey.
AL MVP: Cabrera
NL MVP: Posey
AL ROY: Trout
NL ROY: Harper
AL CY: Price
NL CY: Gonzalez
This is what will happen as posted above.
And if you are a fan of baseball and don't think the traditional triple crown is historically significant, then you have no grasp of the history of baseball. Sure, it doesn't necessarily define the best player, but it's fun and really effing hard to do.
Walt, I honestly think Ellsbury lost the MVP last year on the last day when the Sox blew it and missed the playoffs. Sure, it shouldn't matter, but it does to the voters. If Ellsbury had gone like 4 for 4 with 2HR and they'd won the game and made the playoffs, you can be darn sure he'd have won the award.
Does this mean that Headley finished in the top 5? He's certainly got a case to be in there, but I would never have guessed the writers would give so much support to a relatively obscure guy on a 4th place team.
that is my understanding
He led the league in RBI. Which (a) is a good way to finish in the top 5 of the MVP voting, and (b) surprised the crap out of me.
I was kind of surprised Headley wasn't the Padre busted fo steroids given his late power surge.
When you can snatch the pebble from my hand grasshopper ...
AL MVP Cabrera(It should be Trout)
NL ROY Harper
AL ROY Trout(he should get all three votes per ballot)
NL Cy Young Dickey(fingers crossed)(I hope Lohse gets at least one vote)
AL CY Young Verlander
I hope that Molina beats out Braun, that Lohse gets a vote or two, and that Trout wins the AL MVP, but I doubt that.
It's fun etc, but it doesn't guarantee that you win the MVP award either.
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