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Sunday, November 11, 2012

Braun finalist for NL MVP

i thought someone would post a mvp finalist article but since it didn’t happen just wanted to toss this out there given that there was speculation that braun might finish well down the ballot. i am sticking with my 3rd place finish prediction. i don’t think the mvp voters are nearly as needlessly vindictive as hof voters

Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 11, 2012 at 07:46 AM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: milwaukee, mvp

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1. Greg (U)K Posted: November 11, 2012 at 08:58 AM (#4299957)

So should this be the predictions and/or personal preference thread?

Quick skim of the names my votes would go
AL MVP - Trout
NL MVP - Posey (but Braun and McCutchen aren't exactly miles behind)
AL CY - Verlander
NL CY - Dickey (could easily be Kershaw too, but this is funner)
AL ROY - Trout
NL ROY - Harper

NL Cy Young and NL MVP look like the only close ones. Maybe Miley for the NL Rookie?

2. BourbonSamurai, vassal of the Harpsburg Empire Posted: November 11, 2012 at 09:13 AM (#4299960)

Miley over Harper would be one of those perfectly reasonable things that then seems ridiculous in ten years.

3. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 11, 2012 at 09:16 AM (#4299961)

The Mayan calendar will fix that.

4. Xander Posted: November 11, 2012 at 09:45 AM (#4299968)

Miley over Harper seems unreasonable right now.

5. flournoy Posted: November 11, 2012 at 11:18 AM (#4299989)

I don't understand this "finalist" thing. The ballots are already in; the decision is already set. Are they just naming the top three or five guys to drum up interest?

6. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: November 11, 2012 at 11:21 AM (#4299993)

AL MVP - Cabrera (though I think Trout ought to win)
NL MVP - Posey.
AL CY - Verlander
NL CY - Dickey
AL ROY - Trout
NL ROY - Harper

7. SoSH U at work Posted: November 11, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4299994)

i thought someone would post a mvp finalist article but since it didn’t happen

There was. It didn't get a lot of response.

i don’t think the mvp voters are nearly as needlessly vindictive as hof voters

They're not. The working beat guys who vote on the season awards have become far more like us in a lot of ways than they are like their predecessors, though its the old timers who still control the Hall of Fame vote (and will for quite a while).

I don't understand this "finalist" thing. The ballots are already in; the decision is already set. Are they just naming the top three or five guys to drum up interest?

That's what it would appear. It's new this year with these awards (though it was attempted, really badly, last year with the Gold Gloves and repeated again this year).

8. Guapo Posted: November 11, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4300001)

AL MVP: AL guy with the most WAR
NL MVP: NL guy with the most WAR
AL ROY: AL guy with the most WAR that meets the rookie eligibility requirements
NL ROY: NL guy with the most WAR that meets the rookie eligibility requirements
AL Cy Young: AL guy with the most WAR that is a pitcher
NL Cy Young: NL guy with the most WAR that is a pitcher

9. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 11, 2012 at 11:59 AM (#4300008)

What I want to have happen:

AL MVP: Trout
NL MVP: Posey
AL ROY: Trout
NL ROY: Harper
AL CY: Verlander
NL CY: Dickey

What I think will happen:

AL MVP: Cabrera
NL MVP: Posey
AL ROY: Trout
NL ROY: Harper
AL CY: Price
NL CY: Gonzalez

10. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: November 11, 2012 at 12:40 PM (#4300027)

it should be posey in hte nl. pretty obvious choice in my estimation

11. SoSH U at work Posted: November 11, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4300075)

it should be posey in hte nl. pretty obvious choice in my estimation

I think he and the two rookies are the locks. The Cys are less certain (particularly in the NL), and I wouldn't be surprised if Trout wins the AL MVP.

12. Chris Fluit Posted: November 11, 2012 at 02:33 PM (#4300078)

Price has a shot at the AL Cy Young over Verlander as well. He's first in ERA and in wins. Verlander's ahead in innings, in strikeouts and in ERA+ as Tampa rates as more of a pitcher's park this year than Detroit. I'd go with Verlander but I can see how the voters might go with Price.

13. Shock Posted: November 11, 2012 at 02:35 PM (#4300082)

Trout not winning MVP would blow my mind. The writers don't only care about HR/RBI -- Ichiro won an MVP with a similarly styled (though inferior) rookie season. The SABR/WAR crap is just a smokescreen; the kid hid .32whatever with 30 bombs and led the league in steals while playing spectacular CF. Come the #### on.

14. Swedish Chef Posted: November 11, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4300085)

There was a lot of preemptive indignation for the shabby treatment of Verlander here last year, but that turned out fine.

15. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 11, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4300090)

I don't have any idea who is going to win the NL Cy Young, but I think that the most deserving NL pitcher is reasonably clear.

Clayton Kershaw led the NL in ERA by 20 points ahead of RA Dickey. He was second in adjusted ERA+, two points behind Johnny Cueto and ten ahead of Dickey. He was second in K and IP, trailing Dickey by just four innings and one K, and ahead of Cueto by 10 IP and 60 Ks. He led the league in RA-based WAR and FIP-based WAR. Kershaw by a small margin faced the toughest opponent hitters (opponent TAv of .274, compared to .272 for Cueto and .270 for Dickey).

The differences aren't huge, and none of these guys (or even Gio Gonzalez, who is nonetheless clearly behind the top three) would be a disgraceful selection. But Kershaw deserves it.

16. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 11, 2012 at 03:23 PM (#4300102)

The writers don't only care about HR/RBI -- Ichiro won an MVP with a similarly styled (though inferior) rookie season.

Ichiro's team won 116 games. Trout's team missed the playoffs. I'm betting that'll make somewhat of a difference.

17. JJ1986 Posted: November 11, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4300115)

If Cabrera wins, it will be because the Tigers made the playoffs (and didn't clinch too early). Trout on Baltimore or Oakland would be a unanimous MVP.

18. SoSH U at work Posted: November 11, 2012 at 03:48 PM (#4300116)

If Cabrera wins, it will be because the Tigers made the playoffs (and didn't clinch too early).

I think if Cabrera wins, it will be because he did something historically significant that hadn't been accomplished in 44 years. Otherwise, it would have been Trout's.

19. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 11, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4300119)

I disagree. If Cabrera wins, it will be because he did something historically significant that hadn't been accomplished in 44 years. Otherwise, it would have been Trout's.

When did the "Triple Crown" of BA/HR/RBI become "historically significant"?

20. SoSH U at work Posted: November 11, 2012 at 03:59 PM (#4300120)

When did the "Triple Crown" of BA/HR/RBI become "historically significant"?

I can't give you an exact date, if that's what you're asking. But the Triple Crown has sure as hell been significant for as long as I've been following baseball.

21. Danny Posted: November 11, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4300124)

Ichiro won an MVP with a similarly styled (though inferior) rookie season.

And Giambi was better than Cabrera.

22. Johnny Temporary Posted: November 11, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4300126)

Re 19
See number 20

23. Shock Posted: November 11, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4300127)

It's significant because it's significant.

24. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 11, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4300134)

If Cabrera wins, it will be because the Tigers made the playoffs (and didn't clinch too early). Trout on Baltimore or Oakland would be a unanimous MVP.

With Trout, Baltimore or Oakland probably clinch too early.

25. Walt Davis Posted: November 11, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4300135)

Things I find entertaining:

Cabrera 2012: 330/393/606, 165 ERA+, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 6.9 WAR
Cabrera 2011: 344/448/586, 179 ERA+, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 7.3 WAR

You can argue Cabrera was slightly better in 2011 -- comes down to OBP vs "production". He finished 4th in MVP voting that year and nobody squawked.

Verlander of course won it.

In 2nd place was a CF who hit 321/376/552 with 32 HR and 105 RBI (impressive), 39 steals, 146 OPS+, 8 WAR and a GG.

Now it was quite close as Ellsbury beat Cabrera by just 50 points. But nobody was whining about WAR they just voted for the good fielding CF slugging the crap out of the ball over Cabrera.

Trout hit 326/399/564 with 30 HR and 83 RBI, 49 steals, 171 OPS+ and 10 WAR (did he win a GG?). Anybody who voted Ellsbury over Cabrera last year but doesn't vote Trout over Cabrera this year is being inconsistent.

26. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 11, 2012 at 04:50 PM (#4300145)

Cabrera 2012: 330/393/606, 165 ERA+, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 6.9 WAR
Cabrera 2011: 344/448/586, 179 ERA+, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 7.3 WAR

Give that man the MVP!

27. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 11, 2012 at 04:53 PM (#4300149)

I agree with MCoA in #15 but the fanboy in me really wants to see Dickey win it. Also, I'm fairly certain it's not going to be Kershaw and I do believe Dickey is the best choice of the others.

28. outl13r Posted: November 11, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4300150)

(did he win a GG?)

No- Adam Jones won.

29. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 11, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4300153)

No- Adam Jones won.

I have no idea whether Jones deserved it or not, but it's incredible to me that Trout didn't win given all of his ESPN highlights this year.

30. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 11, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4300166)

A Kershaw CYA win would be interesting. If both he and Verlander win, it will be only the second time in history that both leagues had repeat winners (who can guess the first time it happened?)

EDIT: And don't cheat if you saw me post the answer before I changed the post....

31. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: November 11, 2012 at 05:35 PM (#4300177)

pedro and randy

32. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 11, 2012 at 05:36 PM (#4300178)

Correct

33. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 11, 2012 at 05:59 PM (#4300201)

Anybody who voted Ellsbury over Cabrera last year but doesn't vote Trout over Cabrera this year is being inconsistent.

Only two BBWAA members per market get to vote, right? It's not the same guys every year. It's quite possible that nobody who voted for Ellsbury last year even had the chance to vote for Trout this year.

34. Monty Posted: November 11, 2012 at 06:36 PM (#4300227)

The differences aren't huge, and none of these guys (or even Gio Gonzalez, who is nonetheless clearly behind the top three) would be a disgraceful selection. But Kershaw deserves it.

Everything you say is true, but I'm still rooting for Dickey.

35. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 11, 2012 at 06:52 PM (#4300234)

AL MVP: Cabrera
NL MVP: Posey
AL ROY: Trout
NL ROY: Harper
AL CY: Price
NL CY: Gonzalez

This is what will happen as posted above.

And if you are a fan of baseball and don't think the traditional triple crown is historically significant, then you have no grasp of the history of baseball. Sure, it doesn't necessarily define the best player, but it's fun and really effing hard to do.

Walt, I honestly think Ellsbury lost the MVP last year on the last day when the Sox blew it and missed the playoffs. Sure, it shouldn't matter, but it does to the voters. If Ellsbury had gone like 4 for 4 with 2HR and they'd won the game and made the playoffs, you can be darn sure he'd have won the award.

36. Why Bloody Valdespin? Posted: November 11, 2012 at 06:53 PM (#4300235)

Braun was joined by San Francisco's Buster Posey, Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen, San Diego's Chase Headley and St. Louis' Yadier Molina as finalists for the MVP Award. The BBWAA submits ballots after the regular season with 10 names, with first place weighted heavily in the points system.

37. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: November 11, 2012 at 06:58 PM (#4300236)

alan

that is my understanding

38. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 11, 2012 at 07:54 PM (#4300248)

Does this mean that Headley finished in the top 5? He's certainly got a case to be in there, but I would never have guessed the writers would give so much support to a relatively obscure guy on a 4th place team.

He led the league in RBI. Which (a) is a good way to finish in the top 5 of the MVP voting, and (b) surprised the crap out of me.

39. Moeball Posted: November 11, 2012 at 08:26 PM (#4300261)

Adam Jones won GG but it still points out problems with fielding measurements. According to total zone Jones was +13 runs, very good. Per BIS, however, he was -13 runs, very poor. How can he be both an excellent fielder & a poor one?

I was kind of surprised Headley wasn't the Padre busted fo steroids given his late power surge.

40. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: November 11, 2012 at 08:36 PM (#4300265)

How did Headley not get to the All-Star game again? I remember writing an impassioned complaint about this in July. And as predicted, I now have no memory of which Padre did get to go. Huston Street and Carlos Quentin were both on the DL for the first half of the season, right? Presumably it was one of their no-name relief pitchers who was leading the team with five saves.

41. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: November 11, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4300267)

huston street was the padres rep

42. Walt Davis Posted: November 11, 2012 at 09:03 PM (#4300278)

How can he be both an excellent fielder & a poor one?

When you can snatch the pebble from my hand grasshopper ...

43. cardsfanboy

Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:16 PM (#4300550)

NL MVP Posey (This is a lock)
AL MVP Cabrera(It should be Trout)
NL ROY Harper
AL ROY Trout(he should get all three votes per ballot)
NL Cy Young Dickey(fingers crossed)(I hope Lohse gets at least one vote)
AL CY Young Verlander

I hope that Molina beats out Braun, that Lohse gets a vote or two, and that Trout wins the AL MVP, but I doubt that.

44. cardsfanboy

Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:21 PM (#4300552)

And if you are a fan of baseball and don't think the traditional triple crown is historically significant, then you have no grasp of the history of baseball. Sure, it doesn't necessarily define the best player, but it's fun and really effing hard to do.

It's fun etc, but it doesn't guarantee that you win the MVP award either.

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Braun finalist for NL MVP

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