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Wednesday, January 09, 2019

Brewers have deal with catcher Yasmani Grandal | MLB.com

If the Mets rumored offer was real his agent should be fired.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 09, 2019 at 11:23 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brewers, yasmani grandal

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   1. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: January 10, 2019 at 01:41 AM (#5803963)
Dang, I was kinda hoping he'd return to LA on deal similar to this.
   2. The Duke Posted: January 10, 2019 at 06:06 AM (#5803968)
Is this really worse than Mets dea It seems now it was closer to 4/50 not 4/60. Is 18 for one year with a chance not to have a Comp pick attached next year worse than that? It’s just really a preference of short term risk vs long term risk. Plus he might go to WS. Seems like he is no worse off than if he accepted QO
   3. Adam Starblind Posted: January 10, 2019 at 07:00 AM (#5803970)
Is this really worse than Mets dea[l?] It seems now it was closer to 4/50 not 4/60. Is 18 for one year with a chance not to have a Comp pick attached next year worse than that? It’s just really a preference of short term risk vs long term risk. Plus he might go to WS. Seems like he is no worse off than if he accepted QO


Yes to both.

Also, I haven't seen "closer to 4/50" reported, though I've seen "a bit less" than 4/60, not that that makes much difference.
   4. The Duke Posted: January 10, 2019 at 07:37 AM (#5803973)
So he can likely sign four one year contracts at 18 per year which is 72 versus, let’s call it 55.
It’s not like he has to worry about TJ surgery - he’s more likely than not to do be able to do that. Even if he does 18, 18,10, 10 he breaks even and each year he has the optionality of signing a long term deal. Plus he can choose to play for winners each year.

Doesn’t seem like a bad bet to me if you believe in your talent
   5. Rally Posted: January 10, 2019 at 08:59 AM (#5803984)
Grandal will be 30, and has been very consistent as a hitter. Career 115 OPS+, his lowest is 101 and his highest for a full season 120 (also 143 in 60 games as a rookie).

It is an advantage for an athlete to have beyond rational confidence in your ability. As a neutral observer, I can see a lot of risk in not taking a 4 year deal for slightly less $ per season.

I look at where Jonathan Lucroy was in 2016, a 120 OPS+ catcher, 30 years old, and outstanding pitch framing metrics. Almost exactly where Grandal is now except a year older. Lucroy suddenly dropped to an OPS+ of 82 entering free agency and followed that with a 71. If he was on the market after 2016 he would have gotten the kind of offers Grandal is getting, but instead ended up with 1 year deals for 6.5 and 3.35 million.

Interesting that Lucroy at the 2016 trade deadline did not exhibit any irrational confidence, in fact quite the opposite. He vetoed a trade to Cleveland because he thought that the presence of Yan Gomes (who had all of a .201 OBP in 2016) would mean Cleveland would make Lucroy a backup or switch him to first or DH for the 2017 season.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 10, 2019 at 09:10 AM (#5803985)
As a neutral observer, I can see a lot of risk in not taking a 4 year deal for slightly less $ per season.

Yeah, a 30 y.o. catcher is in danger zone with regards to total collapse. 4/55 (to split the difference on what people say the Mets offer was) is a much better deal than 1/18.
   7. Davo cant be eatin thirty hot dogs every day Posted: January 10, 2019 at 10:16 AM (#5804015)
You think he would look at what happened to Jonathan Lucroy once he turned 30 and say “Ya know what? I’ma take the 4 year deal.”

But. If he was risk-averse he wouldn’t be a professional athlete.
   8. Jim Furtado Posted: January 10, 2019 at 10:42 AM (#5804048)
What snapper said.

Yeah, a 30 y.o. catcher is in danger zone with regards to total collapse. 4/55 (to split the difference on what people say the Mets offer was) is a much better deal than 1/18.
   9. Davo cant be eatin thirty hot dogs every day Posted: January 10, 2019 at 11:04 AM (#5804068)
So does anyone really think the Dodgers are gonna just let Austin Barnes take over at catcher?
   10. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 10, 2019 at 11:08 AM (#5804070)

You think he would look at what happened to Jonathan Lucroy once he turned 30 and say “Ya know what? I’ma take the 4 year deal.”


Or Mike Moustakas who had to sign a 1/$6.5M deal last year and at this point may have to end up playing in the Atlantic League or something.
   11. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2019 at 11:16 AM (#5804075)
So does anyone really think the Dodgers are gonna just let Austin Barnes take over at catcher?


I think they're going to end up trading for Cervelli. Just a gut feeling.
   12. Davo cant be eatin thirty hot dogs every day Posted: January 10, 2019 at 11:23 AM (#5804077)
11- That’s exactly what happened in our Offseason Simulation game!

Linky link

Dodgers receive: C Francisco Cervelli, RP Richard Rodriguez, IF Max Moroff, OF Lolo Sanchez
Pirates receive: SS/2B/OF Chris Taylor, RP Joe Broussard
   13. Master of the Horse Posted: January 10, 2019 at 11:47 AM (#5804091)
Love this pickup. Slinging David Stearns making things happen! There was an overlay on Twitter that if Grandal had played just in MP last season he would have hit 43 dingers. So have to like his chances moving from Dodger Stadium on offense
   14. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: January 10, 2019 at 12:03 PM (#5804101)
Agree with snapper as well.

Dodgers would want a 90/70 type situation regardless, right?
   15. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 10, 2019 at 12:09 PM (#5804104)
I guess Cervelli has only one year left on his deal, but it seems to me the Dodgers would have been better-served to resign Grandal rather than give up talent for an older, not-as-good version of the same thing.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2019 at 12:25 PM (#5804117)
11- That’s exactly what happened in our Offseason Simulation game!


I ran the Pirates in this year's SBN sim, and I traded Cervelli and Crick to the Mets, while covering about half of Cervelli's contract, in exchange for Shervyen Newton.

Had already gotten Polanco from the Twins to fill the SS hole.
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2019 at 12:26 PM (#5804118)
I guess Cervelli has only one year left on his deal, but it seems to me the Dodgers would have been better-served to resign Grandal rather than give up talent for an older, not-as-good version of the same thing.


He's also less expensive than Grandal, and the Pirates might be willing to cover some of the remaining money in exchange for a better return if the cost is an issue.
   18. Master of the Horse Posted: January 10, 2019 at 03:29 PM (#5804259)
Cervelli is really good in a sneaky and completely annoying way. But he set a career high in homers so he might have changed his swing which could be a good thing. That and at least for a while he dated a miss Venezuela who was smoking hot so dude has game there too.
   19. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 10, 2019 at 03:50 PM (#5804275)
Dodger ownership couldn’t pay a tiny bit of luxury tax to bring back their star catcher for a year? Disgraceful.
   20. Master of the Horse Posted: January 10, 2019 at 03:56 PM (#5804278)
So how many here this would be a key exhibit for Tony Clark to use to get the players to start thinking about a serious throwdown come next CBA if Clark wasn't so terrible at his job?
   21. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 10, 2019 at 07:44 PM (#5804363)
He's also less expensive than Grandal, and the Pirates might be willing to cover some of the remaining money in exchange for a better return if the cost is an issue.


I guess. But the Dodgers print money like no team since the late 90s Yankees. Maybe they made the calculation that they're still NLW favorites without Grandal so they might as well try to keep payroll down. Or -- is there a catcher better than Grandal who's likely to be available next winter? All in all, though, I still think this is a team that should be pressing hard while Kershaw is still more or less in one piece and Turner is still hitting.
   22. Davo cant be eatin thirty hot dogs every day Posted: January 10, 2019 at 08:01 PM (#5804369)
20- In isolation: Yes.

But in the context of him declining a 4-year, ~55MM deal: No.

....that said, when Manny Machado signs a 6/180 deal a week into spring training, yeah, that’s when the #### should hit the fan.
   23. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 10, 2019 at 10:04 PM (#5804399)
But in the context of him declining a 4-year, ~55MM deal: No.


I mean, it seems like 4/55 shouldn't be the best available alternative for a player of Grandal's caliber in 2019, though. Right? Or is my sense of the market completely off?

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