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Monday, September 23, 2019

Brewers move into tie with Nationals for first NL Wild Card

The Brewers, once left for dead after outfielder Christian Yelich suffered a season-ending injury, defeated the Pirates 4-3 on Sunday afternoon. That, paired with the Nationals’ 5-3 loss to the Marlins, moved them into a tie for the first NL Wild Card. The Brewers are 10-2 since Yelich’s injury.

During Sunday’s game, the Brewers brought a combined perfect game bid into the seventh inning. It ended when Gio González allowed a one-out single to Bryan Reynolds. The Brewers’ four runs came on two Eric Thames homers and an Orlando Arcia homer. The Pirates mounted a rally in the eighth inning, scoring three runs, but Josh Hader came in and slammed the door, getting the final four outs.

Is it just me, or, between this and how the Yankees have been doing, are injuries not having the effect that they usually have on a team?

 

QLE Posted: September 23, 2019 at 12:17 AM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brewers, christian yelich, nationals, nl wild card

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   1. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: September 23, 2019 at 01:22 AM (#5882061)
Crew is 17-4 in September. Or Craigtember as Brewer fans have branded the month. Have outscored opponents 105-64 which is pretty dominant. Played Cubs, Cards and Astros a total of 10 times this month and went 7-3. Other loss this month was 2-1 to Padres.

Grandal has an OPS of almost 1.000 this month. Dude has been amazing catching I think 13 straight games when Pina was concussed. Maybe one game off this whole month which for a catcher is crazy. He is going to play in 150 games this season and catch in like 135. Brewers made the man earn that paycheck big time.

Grisham doing a decent Yelich imitation with an OPS of .900 this month and some big hits. Defense actually better than Yeli who strangely enough kind of sucks in right field.

But really this surge is about run prevention. Giving up only 3 runs a game this month is HUGE turnaround from the 5 runs a game the months prior. Defense way better, starters not getting blown up early and CC has a two shift setup in the bullpen where he has one group of guys who pitch together one game and then the next game it's the other group. Do other teams also do this in September when the rosters expand?

Lot of pitchers doing good things but want to call out Drew Pomeranz who has struck 39 hitters in 23 innings pitched. That's 2 killer lefties in the bullpen between him and Hader.

Fun times.
   2. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 23, 2019 at 01:44 AM (#5882067)
I had a feeling we'd be here after I looked at what the final three weeks looked like for the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, and Nationals. It'll be nice to watch the Wild Card game without any real vested interest this year.
   3. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: September 23, 2019 at 01:52 AM (#5882068)
Is it just me, or, between this and how the Yankees have been doing, are injuries not having the effect that they usually have on a team?


Well, a couple things:

1) Individual baseball players just don't matter that much (relative to key players in other sports). Yelich only gets to bat one time out of nine. Say he is a 8 WAR player -- which is a hell of a player! -- that's one win over the course of a 20 game stretch run, and that's assuming he is replaced by a replacement level player which for a good team in contention is generally not true (Grisham is almost certainly above replacement, for instance).

2) There is a lot of variance in baseball wins and losses because teams are so close to .500. Over a 20 game stretch the margin of error is +/- 4.5 wins. That's a lot!

It obviously makes the Brewers worse but anyone who thought this injury changed the Brewers' odds dramatically was probably overreacting.
   4. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: September 23, 2019 at 02:02 AM (#5882071)
3--You nailed it.
   5. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: September 23, 2019 at 02:16 AM (#5882073)
Fun with end points per brewcrewball: Today’s game ended a stretch of 18 games in a row, and the Brewers went 15-3 in those 18 games. On September 5th, the first game of their 18 games in a row (where they lost to the Cubs) they were 71-68, 7.5 games back in the division and 5 games back in the Wild Card race. Now, they have a four game Wild Card lead, a swing of 9 games in the Brewers favor.
   6. Bote Man sez Deivi is MoY Posted: September 23, 2019 at 03:49 AM (#5882081)
1) OK, I see this a lot, but can we please stop referring to Craig Counsell as "CC" while C.C. Sabathia is still A Thing? Even in context it's jarring and my feeble mind has to stop to process what is meant.

2) The idea of Gio Gonzalez being involved in a perfect game is...I just feel for Brewers fans who were forced to witness it. I mean, this is the guy who invented the #GioTantrumMeter after he'd give up a home run and stomp around the mound, pouting for a bit while talking to himself in a berating fashion. Even his most dominant performances could be painful to witness.

3) The Brewers have been ON FAHR recently (as demonstrated above) while the Nats have been coasting on tired pitching and a slightly hobbled team. Advantage: Brewers at the moment.
   7. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 23, 2019 at 04:51 AM (#5882085)
Unless the fringe WC contenders really step it up, this week is a Nationals - Brewers race for home field advantage in their inevitable WC game.
   8. Rennie's Tenet Posted: September 23, 2019 at 07:35 AM (#5882090)
inevitable


The Cubs get three against the Pirates next, so they're not dead yet.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 23, 2019 at 09:16 AM (#5882106)
Any chance Yelich gets back for any part of the playoffs?
   10. SoSH U at work Posted: September 23, 2019 at 09:53 AM (#5882128)
Or Craigtember as Brewer fans have branded the month.


That's awful.

1) OK, I see this a lot, but can we please stop referring to Craig Counsell as "CC" while C.C. Sabathia is still A Thing? Even in context it's jarring and my feeble mind has to stop to process what is meant.'


We will, if you stop referring to Davey Martinez as Deivi. Deal?

   11. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 23, 2019 at 10:25 AM (#5882141)
The only way the Nats can ever survive a wild card game is for Scherzer or Strasburg or Corbin to pitch a complete game, because with that bullpen no lead is safe.
   12. Nasty Nate Posted: September 23, 2019 at 10:36 AM (#5882144)
The only way the Nats can ever survive a wild card game is for Scherzer or Strasburg or Corbin to pitch a complete game, because with that bullpen no lead is safe.
You have amnesia.
   13. ThisElevatorIsDrivingMeUpTheWall Posted: September 23, 2019 at 11:28 AM (#5882165)
Scherzer, Corbin, and Strasburg all should be pitching some in that game.
   14. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: September 23, 2019 at 11:56 AM (#5882174)
It obviously makes the Brewers worse but anyone who thought this injury changed the Brewers' odds dramatically was probably overreacting.

Sure, but did anyone think the injury would make them *better*?
   15. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 23, 2019 at 12:10 PM (#5882179)
Scherzer, Corbin, and Strasburg all should be pitching some in that game.

Well, they should at least be on call. But if the starter among them is still going strong after 6 or even 7 or 8 innings, and his pitch count is reasonably low, I don't see any point in pulling him, given that two days later they're going to need one of them ready if they make it to the Division Series.
   16. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: September 23, 2019 at 01:46 PM (#5882228)
Fangraphs Playoff Projections - Brewers / Cubs
Sept 5 – 5.6% / 86.5%
Sept 18 – 54.9% / 58.2%
Sept 20 – 63.7 % / 21.4%
Sept 23 – 97.1% / 2.6%

That's a pretty dramatic turn of events for two teams in less than 3 weeks
   17. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 23, 2019 at 01:53 PM (#5882235)
Random thought: Refusing to use your closer (assuming for the sake of argument that he is your best reliever) in a tie game on the road is the same type of "logic" as refusing to use your best pitcher in a WC game because then you couldn't use him in the first game of the Division Series. Just on a smaller scale.
   18. Zonk Will Not Get Over It Abusing Its Office Posted: September 23, 2019 at 02:25 PM (#5882248)
The Cubs get three against the Pirates next, so they're not dead yet.


In an epilogue to Shaun of the Dead, zombie Nick Frost plays xBox with Simon Pegg kind of way maybe...
   19. Moeball Posted: September 23, 2019 at 09:51 PM (#5882403)
#16 The Cubs going from 86% likely to make the playoffs to only 2% in just a couple of weeks in September? Where have we seen this before? (Happy 50th anniversary, Mets fans. On 9/5/69 Cubs were 4.5 games up, on 9/23/69 they were 6 games back. Ouch.)
   20. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 23, 2019 at 10:01 PM (#5882409)
Random thought: Refusing to use your closer (assuming for the sake of argument that he is your best reliever) in a tie game on the road is the same type of "logic" as refusing to use your best pitcher in a WC game because then you couldn't use him in the first game of the Division Series. Just on a smaller scale.

I agree if the WC is a tie game, or even if it's a close game and your original starter has reached his limit. But to take one example, you wouldn't want to use Strasburg or Corbin in the WC game if Scherzer leaves after 7 with an 8-0 lead.

(Although with the Nats' bullpen in mind, maybe you can't be too sure.)
   21. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2019 at 10:20 PM (#5882414)
If it's an elimination game... everyone should be available who is healthy enough to play.. worry about tomorrow...tomorrow.. I get the argument of saving your starter, but you need to look at the quality of who you have and make choices and risk it if you have to.

Elimination games do not follow the rules of seasonal strategy...and as pointed out in this thread alone... one player isn't that huge of a difference over the course of a game, but could be a big factor over a specific high leverage inning.
   22. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 23, 2019 at 10:22 PM (#5882416)
I agree if the WC is a tie game, or even if it's a close game and your original starter has reached his limit. But to take one example, you wouldn't want to use Strasburg or Corbin in the WC game if Scherzer leaves after 7 with an 8-0 lead.
Sure - I was unclear, but I meant to start the WC game. Of course you should start with your best available pitcher,* and then take into account the game situation from there.

*There is a viable argument for an opener based on the particular lineup.
   23. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 23, 2019 at 10:33 PM (#5882422)
Nationals win tonight, and with a Day-Night doubleheader tomorrow, they also have a chance to put up another victory before the Brewers even take the field. Phillies looked a bit listless, which might carry over.

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