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Sunday, June 22, 2014

Brewers sweep Rockies

Milwaukee swept the Rockies to finish 6-1 on a road trip that started in Arizona. The Brewers’ 27-15 record and .643 winning percentage away from home is the best in the majors.

Milwaukee also has the best record in the National League. 

No, really.

Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 22, 2014 at 09:25 PM | 64 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brewers, first place, milwaukee

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   1. boteman is not here 'til October Posted: June 22, 2014 at 11:58 PM (#4733255)
Never fear! The Nats are...there. Ho boy.

And to think that Nats fans were worried about taking on the Giants and Cards before that road trip.
   2. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: June 23, 2014 at 01:36 AM (#4733276)
Colorado is basically toast after this 6 game losing streak. The NL West is pretty much a two team race.
   3. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 08:36 AM (#4733325)
second in the league in runs scored
second in the league in home runs
defense that is better than people think
pitching staff that minimizes walks

not a great team or anything. but it's a pretty well balanced team.
   4. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 08:46 AM (#4733335)
I'm ready to accept Milwaukee as for real. I still like St. Louis to get it together and take the division, but absent injury problems Milwaukee isn't going to collapse. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh certainly aren't going to run them down.
   5. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 09:31 AM (#4733370)
One of my fears for the Crew is that the 'good luck' they have had will flip at some point. Confirmation bias no doubt, but bounces, breaks, guys falling down, 3 runs on a WP, things like that have gone Milwaukee's way here in the first half. I expect things to be really tight.
   6. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 09:46 AM (#4733378)
mrams

i hear that about the luck. save for the fact that milwaukee did manage through a fair amount of injuries (ramirez/braun) and gutted out an ok may that could have been worse

certainly aware of the run differential. again, milwaukee's offense is now perking up and possibly right the scale

it's also true that the brewers have some run prevention bullets to fire in guys like fiers and nelson who are likely better than estrada who has been giving homers up at an insane rate.

meanwhile, the defense is pretty solid. and for every lucroy who could take a step back there is a braun or segura who could hit better.

milwaukee ain't a .600 winning percentage team but i think barring some ugliness they could clear 90 wins.

and that puts them right there in the playoff discussion
   7. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 09:49 AM (#4733381)
so when does the carlos gomez for nl mvp discussion begin? best all around player on a team with the best record.
   8. Davo Dozier Posted: June 23, 2014 at 09:57 AM (#4733390)
#7--when he hits .480 and wins the triple crown for an undefeated Brewer team.

Writers do not like his act.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 10:05 AM (#4733398)
I don't think St Louis looks any better than Milwaukee right now.
   10. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 10:11 AM (#4733402)
.500 baseball the rest of the way gets them to 90 wins. That should easily be doable in their division; again, they are definitely better than Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.
   11. Davo Dozier Posted: June 23, 2014 at 10:14 AM (#4733404)
FanGraphs gives them a 50% chance of winning the division, (but a 75% chance of making the playoffs.) That's a bit lower than I'd have guessed, but they apparently recognize that the Cardinals are still an incredible team, and it's only a 5.5 game deficit.
   12. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 23, 2014 at 10:47 AM (#4733431)
so when does the carlos gomez for nl mvp discussion begin?


When Tulo suffers his annual injury.
   13. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 10:51 AM (#4733435)
Cardinals are still an incredible team

have you watched the cardinals this season?

the batting lineup has holes, the offense keeps killing innings by hitting into dps because save for 1-2 guys there is no speed, wacha just went on the dl and shelby miller isn't fooling hitters. his era is kind of phony.

right now this is a pitching and defense team. if holliday and craig don't start perking up shortly teh cards are a wainwright owie away from big trouble
   14. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 10:52 AM (#4733437)
tom

tulo is tremendous but do we think writers are going to award an mvp to a team that wins 75 games?

   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 11:25 AM (#4733463)
Cardinals are still an incredible team

have you watched the cardinals this season?


Concur. What's scary about the Cardinals?
   16. cardsfanboy Posted: June 23, 2014 at 11:27 AM (#4733466)
so when does the carlos gomez for nl mvp discussion begin? best all around player on a team with the best record.


He's not even the best player on his own team. :)

the batting lineup has holes, the offense keeps killing innings by hitting into dps because save for 1-2 guys there is no speed, wacha just went on the dl and shelby miller isn't fooling hitters. his era is kind of phony.


Miller's era is pretty in line with his performance, regardless of fip. He's out performing fip because he's Hyde for his Jeckyll in one inning. He'll pitch 4 great innings, then have a disaster inning, and then bounce back. It's because of the shape of his individual games, that he is able to beat fip.

The batting lineup doesn't have holes, they just aren't performing. There is a difference. Who knows if they are going to perform throughout the season, but it's not like they have crappy players at any of their positions, just the guys aren't playing to their ability. It happens.

The Brewers are a good team, and have to be considered the favorites going forward, but with 13 games remaining with the Cardinals, it's not going to be easy.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 11:32 AM (#4733471)
Miller's era is pretty in line with his performance, regardless of fip.

A 3.56 ERA is not in line with a 1.56 K/BB ratio.
   18. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 11:35 AM (#4733475)
cfb

i know miller is young so maybe he grows out of it but you have just written the same explanation brewer fans give for keeping estrada in the rotation.

at minimum i don't know how you don't term the second base spot in the lineup a hole.

the cards have every reason to think a matt holliday will bounce back. but allan craig? is that a given? bourjos? and the cards bench, like the brewers bench, also kind of stinks.

and nobody wrote anything was going to be easy. just that i don't understand how anyone could look at st louis and term them 'incredible'
   19. Davo Dozier Posted: June 23, 2014 at 11:35 AM (#4733476)
Cardinals are still an incredible team

have you watched the cardinals this season?

the batting lineup has holes, the offense keeps killing innings by hitting into dps because save for 1-2 guys there is no speed, wacha just went on the dl and shelby miller isn't fooling hitters.
No. But I have a newborn to take care of!

I just have the numbers, but when I see the Cardinals, I see a team with

1) A ton of depth; and

2) A ton of very good players who have gotten off to very poor starts (Holliday, Craig, and Carpenter are all still slugging under .380).

I just mean, it's easy for me to understand why the projections systems that FanGraphs uses have this race as close as they do. (I'd say the NL West is a similar one--Dodgers have a bit of ground to make up, but have by far more talent on their roster than the Giants do).
   20. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 11:37 AM (#4733480)
a team in the central that could absolutely see bouncebacks is the reds. jay bruce should hit better. joey votto could be more vottoish. bailey could pick it up.

but as a recurring them the reds bench is pretty bad.
   21. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 11:39 AM (#4733481)
davo

tell me about this depth. i would be interested to read about it. because if your depth means 'oscar taveras' i think you and i have different definitions
   22. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 11:46 AM (#4733487)
matt carpenter slugged .450 in the minors. he slugged .471 in 2013. who is to say that 2014 isn't a step back to his true level of power output? not maybe .380 for the season but maybe .410. will that make a real impact in the cards chances?

   23. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 11:47 AM (#4733489)
and apparently everyone has forgotten the amazing work st louis did with runners on base last season. guess that regression in whatever form only applies to other teams?

   24. salvomania Posted: June 23, 2014 at 11:50 AM (#4733492)
Birds' bench is terrible. Descalso, Ellis (before Wong was DLed), Bourjos, Shane Robinson and Tony Cruz.

Not only is there zero power threat among those hitters, there's zero hitting threat among those hitters.

And when the Birds fall behind, it's usually game over. On Sunday they won for the first time since April 8 when they'd been down by more than two runs. Which is pretty shocking for a ostensible contender.
   25. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 11:51 AM (#4733493)
and my responses are not intended to suggest milwaukee has an insurmountable lead or any such nonsense.

just questions that i think are worth asking.

too often folks wave their hand and say 'of course so and so will do such and such' and everybody nods like it's settled. i want to know 'why?'
   26. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 11:52 AM (#4733494)
salvo

the pirates have a good bench. they could also well bounce back now that polanco is playing every day and eventually alvarez has to hit some.

but everyone else in the division has a rotten bench. it's dreadful
   27. Davo Dozier Posted: June 23, 2014 at 12:05 PM (#4733507)
davo

tell me about this depth. i would be interested to read about it. because if your depth means 'oscar taveras' i think you and i have different definitions
My God, this is worse than talking baseball with He Who Shall Not Be Named!
   28. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: June 23, 2014 at 12:07 PM (#4733509)
I can't believe the veterans the Cardinals added for this season (Peter Bourjos and Mark Ellis) are actually underperforming instead of becoming significantly better as soon as they put on a Cardinals jersey. When was the last time that happened? Marlon Anderson?

Get ready for Peter Bourjos to be the NL Player of the Month for July, August and September.
   29. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 12:20 PM (#4733524)
2) A ton of very good players who have gotten off to very poor starts (Holliday, Craig, and Carpenter are all still slugging under .380).


Holliday and Craig are older players with health issues, and Carpenter could have just been a massive fluke.
   30. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 12:21 PM (#4733528)
davo

bit surprised that instead of giving me an actual answer you make fun of the statement

unless you believe i should know the answer
   31. Davo Dozier Posted: June 23, 2014 at 12:36 PM (#4733540)
I really like talking about baseball. I just hate how every statement gets turned into an argument here. It's so exhausting.
   32. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 12:41 PM (#4733547)
davo

you claimed st louis had a lot of depth.

i do not see it

i am asking to be educated

i think your post in 31 is claiming an argument when what is more likely you recognize you may have issued a statement not supported by fact and wish to avoid having to backtrack.

tell you waht. you name the names tied to this st louis depth and i will not respond.
   33. salvomania Posted: June 23, 2014 at 12:43 PM (#4733551)
I just hate how every statement gets turned into an argument here. It's so exhausting.

Every statement doesn't get turned into an argument---that's crazy.

And how can it be exhausting? It's just typing!
   34. cardsfanboy Posted: June 23, 2014 at 12:52 PM (#4733559)
tell me about this depth. i would be interested to read about it. because if your depth means 'oscar taveras' i think you and i have different definitions


Yes I would imagine we do. Taveras, Grichuk, Piscotty is a ton of depth. Throw in a few starting pitchers being used as relievers(such as Martinez) and add in the versatility of the players, and in a panic mode they can do a lot of switching up.

at minimum i don't know how you don't term the second base spot in the lineup a hole.


Not seeing that, great defense by both players, improving hitting from Wong(who is on the DL) and the fact is that the Cardinals historically have punted second base anyway. Overall, Wong is slightly below average. Plus baserunning, plus defense, poor hitting. (basically the opposite of Aramis and pretty close to equally valuable.)

The Cardinals depth is their flexibility for the long term. If we lose an outfielder we call up Taveras. If we decide to replace second base, you move Carpenter to second, Craig to third and call up Taveras. If we lose Jay, you call up Grichuk. Short and catcher are the only positions that the Cardinals don't have a major league ready player ready to take over.
   35. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 12:54 PM (#4733562)
cfb

though i doubt your answer owuld have been davo's rsponse i appreciate the feedback
   36. cardsfanboy Posted: June 23, 2014 at 12:58 PM (#4733568)
and apparently everyone has forgotten the amazing work st louis did with runners on base last season. guess that regression in whatever form only applies to other teams?


No, not one person, not one single person on this thread has talked about that. They have talked about the drop in performance from last years team in fully tangible numbers. Nobody but you seems to think that is a subject being brought up. It's not important in the evaluation of the team. You look at the drop in performance from Holliday and Craig, among others. You look on expectations of the team and you work from there. Nobody has talked, or is talking, or will talk about the Cardinals risp last year in comparison to this year except you.


The Cardinals are a pretty deep team, they have pretty good players that is the reason nearly everyone picked them this season. I thought the Brewers were better than many people advertised, and wasn't going to be at all surprised if they posted a good record(I did, and still do think the Cardinals will finish on top though) but there is no reason that people should be thinking of the Brewers as fluky to this point. Looking at their roster, I'm not seeing many fluke performances.
   37. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 01:07 PM (#4733577)
cfb

i only bring up the performance with risp is because it was an extreme outlier and that if folks are wondering why the cards offense is struggling then this should be considered as a factor

if this bothers you i don't understand why
   38. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 01:13 PM (#4733585)
Overall, Wong is slightly below average. Plus baserunning, plus defense, poor hitting. (basically the opposite of Aramis and pretty close to equally valuable.)

OK, that's just crazy talk. We know Aramis is a 130 wRC+ hitter with below average D. Should be a 3+ WAR player if healthy.

We have no idea if Wong can hit in the majors. He's been awful so far. I mean, some Cardinals prospect has to bust eventually, don't they?
   39. cardsfanboy Posted: June 23, 2014 at 01:27 PM (#4733598)
i only bring up the performance with risp is because it was an extreme outlier and that if folks are wondering why the cards offense is struggling then this should be considered as a factor

if this bothers you i don't understand why


It bothers me, because it's a non-issue. It has nothing to do with Matt Holliday posting a 110 ops+ instead of his career norm. When people talk about the Cardinals offense drop, they aren't talking about their drop in runs per game(not really) or risp, they are talking about
1. Holliday a career 136 ops+ hitter, who hit 142 last year posting a 110.
2. Craig a career 123 ops+ hitter, who hit 129 last year posting a 91.
3. Carpenter a career 128 ops+ hitter, who hit 140 last year, posting a 110(note, I'm not really finding a fault personally with Carpenter, he's within a hot streak of his expectations)
4. Yadier a guy who has averaged 130ops+ over the last three seasons hitting 109.(again, same caveat as Carpenter)

This is the heart of the order of the Cardinals offense, and they aren't performing to expectations. Nothing about risp, nobody cares about risp, these guys start hitting to their norm, risp isn't going to matter.
   40. cardsfanboy Posted: June 23, 2014 at 01:30 PM (#4733603)
OK, that's just crazy talk. We know Aramis is a 130 wRC+ hitter with below average D. Should be a 3+ WAR player if healthy.


Just pointing out this year(in which Wong has been injured also) and that Wong has produced .5 War in 171 pa, while Aramis has produced .8 in 208 pa. By bb-ref winning percentage Wong is a .500 player, Aramis has been a .505 player.

Debate the numbers, which is fine as I'm not sold on them either, but at least one point of view supports my statement. It boils down, Wong in the lineup is close to a league average player, not a hole. And he has the upside of developing.
   41. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 01:32 PM (#4733605)
why wouldn't risp performance influence overall performance?

maybe this is a convulated way of saying that the regression that one oculd reasonably expect in performance with runners on base is being shown in just a dip in overall performance. those hits that happened last year are not happening and those hits matter.

guess it only makes sense to me

   42. cardsfanboy Posted: June 23, 2014 at 01:38 PM (#4733614)
maybe this is a convulated way of saying that the regression that one oculd reasonably expect in performance with runners on base is being shown in just a dip in overall performance. those hits that happened last year are not happening and those hits matter.


All that the regression means in this particular case is that the situations will even out more. In extreme terms, if a guy hit .500 with risp and .200 without(assuming same number of pa) that if the talent stays the same, he's more likely to hit .350 with risp and .350 without than he is of repeating those numbers from the previous season.

It doesn't mean if they hit .500 risp, and .200 without that they will regress one number, while not improving on the other number. The seasonal numbers are a good approximation of a players talent level.
   43. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 01:38 PM (#4733615)
1. Holliday a career 136 ops+ hitter, who hit 142 last year posting a 110.
2. Craig a career 123 ops+ hitter, who hit 129 last year posting a 91.
3. Carpenter a career 128 ops+ hitter, who hit 140 last year, posting a 110(note, I'm not really finding a fault personally with Carpenter, he's within a hot streak of his expectations)
4. Yadier a guy who has averaged 130ops+ over the last three seasons hitting 109.(again, same caveat as Carpenter)


Holliday and Molina are old enough that decline is more likely than maintaining past standards. Carpenter's career number are built on one big year at 27.

There would be nothing shocking about Holliday and Carpenter finishing the season at a 120 OPS+, and Molina at 110.

The updated ZiPs for the three are 123 wRC+, 118, and 114 respectively, vs. YTD of 117, 118, and 111.

   44. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 01:42 PM (#4733622)
Just pointing out this year(in which Wong has been injured also) and that Wong has produced .5 War in 171 pa, while Aramis has produced .8 in 208 pa. By bb-ref winning percentage Wong is a .500 player, Aramis has been a .505 player.

Debate the numbers, which is fine as I'm not sold on them either, but at least one point of view supports my statement. It boils down, Wong in the lineup is close to a league average player, not a hole. And he has the upside of developing.


Fangraphs has them at 1.7 for Ramirez and 0.1 for Wong. BRef must have some wacky D numbers going on. No way is a 2B with a 65 wRC+ near average. No way is a 3B with a 131 wRC+ not far superior YTD.

How do you know Wong is a league average player? A career 48 wRC+ is not screaming league average to me.
   45. cardsfanboy Posted: June 23, 2014 at 01:53 PM (#4733635)
Fangraphs has them at 1.7 for Ramirez and 0.1 for Wong. BRef must have some wacky D numbers going on. No way is a 2B with a 65 wRC+ near average. No way is a 3B with a 131 wRC+ not far superior YTD.


I always figured fangraphs as the wonky one(anyone that uses zips in a value stat is pretty wonky)

Average is relative to positions, and there just aren't that many good second baseman out there.

Holliday and Molina are old enough that decline is more likely than maintaining past standards. Carpenter's career number are built on one big year at 27.

Carpenter's numbers are built on his entire limited major league career. he put up 125 ops+ in 114 games his rookie season, 140 last year and is still putting up 110 this year, I'm comfortable saying he's a 120 ops+ player.

Absolutely agree with the decline comment. And agree with the new updated zips. Don't have a problem with any of those numbers. It still indicates an expected improvement over the rest of the season.
   46. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 02:04 PM (#4733644)
I always figured fangraphs as the wonky one(anyone that uses zips in a value stat is pretty wonky)

ZiPs is not used in the value stat. It is an additional data point offered.
   47. puck Posted: June 23, 2014 at 02:09 PM (#4733655)
I don't know of ZiPs being used in fWAR for hitters. cfb is probably thinking of them using FIP for pitchers' WAR.

AFAIK the big difference between the sites on WAR for batters is where they get the fielding data. UZR for fangraphs and I think total zone for bb-ref. I'd guess both are problematic in a half year sample.
   48. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 02:12 PM (#4733661)
I don't know of ZiPs being used in fWAR for hitters. cfb is probably thinking of them using FIP for pitchers' WAR.

It's not. It's only in the ZiPs(Updated) projection that they combine actual YTD stats with the revised forecast for the rest-of-season.

AFAIK the big difference between the sites on WAR for batters is where they get the fielding data. UZR for fangraphs and I think total zone for bb-ref. I'd guess both are problematic in a half year sample.

Yes, the defensive stats are likely garbage at this point. I don't think they tell us anything we didn't know about a player's defense.
   49. cardsfanboy Posted: June 23, 2014 at 02:19 PM (#4733670)
I don't know of ZiPs being used in fWAR for hitters. cfb is probably thinking of them using FIP for pitchers' WAR.


I am, and making fun of them for doing such an idiotic thing. Which is why I go to bb-ref war for everything, any site dumb enough to use Zips for war, who knows how stupid they are in other aspects of their calculations.

Yes, the defensive stats are likely garbage at this point. I don't think they tell us anything we didn't know about a player's defense.


More or less agree here, the point still stands though, Wong is capable of making up for the lack of offense with his defense and baserunning, and his offense is more than likely will improve as the year goes on. (assuming he is healthy) I just don't see it as a hole.
   50. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 02:23 PM (#4733674)
More or less agree here, the point still stands though, Wong is capable of making up for the lack of offense with his defense, and his offense is more than likely will improve as the year goes on. (assuming he is healthy)

Disagree here. No way he can carry a 65 or 75 wRC+ with his glove. Maybe he improves, maybe he doesn't.
   51. Joey B.: posting for the kids of northeast Ohio Posted: June 23, 2014 at 02:24 PM (#4733675)
Never fear! The Nats are...there. Ho boy.

And to think that Nats fans were worried about taking on the Giants and Cards before that road trip.


The good news is that this series officially ends the toughest stretch of our schedule. It gets a lot easier going forward after this.
   52. cardsfanboy Posted: June 23, 2014 at 02:26 PM (#4733677)
Disagree here. No way he can carry a 65 or 75 wRC+ with his glove. Maybe he improves, maybe he doesn't.


Second basman on average don't have a high ops+(or wRC+) League average second baseman in the NL put up a line of .248/.309/.364/.673.... you are telling me a line of .228/.282/.304/.586 with plus defense and plus baserunning, doesn't make up that difference? We'll just have to disagree then.
   53. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 02:54 PM (#4733703)
Second basman on average don't have a high ops+(or wRC+) League average second baseman in the NL put up a line of .248/.309/.364/.673.... you are telling me a line of .228/.282/.304/.586 with plus defense and plus baserunning, doesn't make up that difference? We'll just have to disagree then.

Wong's 65 wRC+ already includes his SBs. Why are you so sure he's a plus defender?
   54. cardsfanboy Posted: June 23, 2014 at 02:57 PM (#4733709)
Wong's 65 wRC+ already includes his SBs. Why are you so sure he's a plus defender?


Because I've seen him play, the scouts say he is, the numbers say he is. I do not think that there is any question that he's a plus defender.

I'm not using wRC, so have no clue. What is the league average wRC for a second baseman? That is why I listed the league average rate stats, basically Wong is a 3 hit game away from reaching the league average offense at his position.(or basically where his numbers were when he injured his shoulder against KC)
   55. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 03:12 PM (#4733720)
for the record i absolutely agree that the division will tighten up and the brewers could easily not only not win the division but not make the playoffs.

i just think pittsburgh and cincy have more upside in the latter half of the year versus st louis

   56. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 03:37 PM (#4733760)
the scouts also said that jean segura would be a poor shortstop.

   57. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 23, 2014 at 03:58 PM (#4733797)
I'm not using wRC, so have no clue. What is the league average wRC for a second baseman?

Not sure how to find that on FG.

I use wRC+ b/c it is linear weights based, and more accurate than OPS+.
   58. vivaelpujols Posted: June 23, 2014 at 04:04 PM (#4733806)
i only bring up the performance with risp is because it was an extreme outlier and that if folks are wondering why the cards offense is struggling then this should be considered as a factor


So because the Cardinals overperformed with RISP last year that explains why they are underperforming this year? Huh? You realize that's not how stuff works, right, you don't get unlucky one year just because you got lucky the previous one.

The Cardinals have the highest third order W% in the NL this year, even with all of those underperforming players:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

3rd order winning percentage is based off of team OBP/SLG/SB and opponents OBP/SLG/SB and adjusted for quality of competition, essentially. As far as I'm concerned the Cardinals are still the best team in the NL. But I really don't care, it just shouldn't be that hard to remove your fan blinders.
   59. cardsfanboy Posted: June 23, 2014 at 04:05 PM (#4733807)
for the record i absolutely agree that the division will tighten up and the brewers could easily not only not win the division but not make the playoffs.

i just think pittsburgh and cincy have more upside in the latter half of the year versus st louis


Not sure I agree with the first part(but if I'm a betting man, I'm betting on the Brewers to make the post season...as I've said before, they aren't having any true flaky years, so it's not likely for them to fall off the cliff. Sure lucroy might end up with a 130 ops+ instead of 150 ops+....but he's a catcher and that is expected, and still very good)

I just don't think Pittsburgh has much going for them. Good outfield, solid infield....and that is pretty much it. The Reds have never impressed me, never got the fascination with Bruce, he's a 120 ops+ hitter and probably their second best bat(unless this is really Frazier's breakout year) they just don't have the projectable offense going forward.
   60. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 04:54 PM (#4733897)
post 58

i think someone wrote the following: the brewers could easily not only not win the division but not make the playoffs.

if that is not representative of pragmatism i don't know what else would be

   61. Sleepy supports unauthorized rambling Posted: June 23, 2014 at 05:44 PM (#4733983)
Holliday and Craig are older players with health issues, and Carpenter could have just been a massive fluke.


FWIW, Carpenter is on pace for about a 4.5 win season (2.1 rWar, 2.3 fWar through 78 games). I'll take that.

And Craig is 29.
   62. salvomania Posted: June 23, 2014 at 06:33 PM (#4734018)
Lost in all the talk about last year's Cardinals' RISP numbers is the flip side: in non-RISP situations they only hit .249 as a team, in more than three times as many AB as they had with RISP.

This suggests two things: Either they were a poor-hitting team (as evidenced by the .249 BA) that got lucky with RISP, or they were a team that was getting similarly fluky results in non-RISP, just in the opposite direction.

I always contended that any regression, whether during the season last year, or in 2014, in the RISP numbers would likely be paired with a regression in the opposite direction, effectively canceling each other out, at least to some extent.

If the Cardinals last year in non-RISP had hit their season-average .270 (instead of their actual .249; or had their season-average .332 obp instead of their .307 obp in non-RISP) and then paired that with a more normal RISP performance, I'm not sure they wouldn't have scored a similar number of runs.
   63. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 23, 2014 at 07:14 PM (#4734033)
Salvo

Fair point

   64. cardsfanboy Posted: June 23, 2014 at 07:52 PM (#4734047)
Lost in all the talk about last year's Cardinals' RISP numbers is the flip side: in non-RISP situations they only hit .249 as a team, in more than three times as many AB as they had with RISP.


That is kinda my point in post 42, but salvo did a much better job of wording it.

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