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Monday, March 25, 2013

Brewers To Sign Kyle Lohse

Steak #1 = Jeff Suppan, Steak #2 = Randy Wolf…

 

The long wait is over: the Brewers will sign Kyle Lohse, tweets [wait for it… - TDA] Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.   Lohse will receive a three-year, $33MM contract, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today, and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick notes a possible $1MM in performance bonuses… Lohse is represented by [wait for it… - TDA] the Boras Corporation.  The Brewers will forfeit the 17th overall pick and the accompanying slot money in the June draft, while the Cardinals will gain the 28th overall pick.

Lohse, 34, seemed en route to a large contract after posting a 2.86 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9, and 40.5% groundball rate in 211 regular season innings for the Cardinals in 2012, and pitching well the year prior.  Turning down the Cardinals’ one-year, $13.3MM qualifying offer seemed the right call in November for a player I considered the 10th best free agent available.  However, partially because of the draft pick compensation issue, Lohse languished on the market nearly until Opening Day.  Agent Scott Boras, whose contract demands were the other major factor in Lohse’s wait, told ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick in January, “It doesn’t really matter what time dinner is when you’re the steak.”  Lohse had been throwing simulated games in Arizona, but it’s unclear when he’ll be Major League-ready.

The District Attorney Posted: March 25, 2013 at 01:44 PM | 80 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brewers, kyle lohse, transactions

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   1. JoeHova Posted: March 25, 2013 at 02:44 PM (#4395947)
god. damn. it.
   2. Cowboy Popup Posted: March 25, 2013 at 02:45 PM (#4395949)
How do you give a guy who is unsigned at the end of March a three year contract?
   3. ColonelTom Posted: March 25, 2013 at 02:47 PM (#4395952)
Boras gets it done again. Dude's good.
   4. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: March 25, 2013 at 02:47 PM (#4395953)
The formatting here is a nightmare. An absolute nightmare.
   5. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 02:48 PM (#4395955)
How do you give a guy who is unsigned at the end of March a three year contract?
Cocaine is a helluva drug
   6. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 25, 2013 at 02:50 PM (#4395959)
####.

My favorite team is going to be overpaying my least favorite player for his age 34-36 seasons while surrendering a first round pick to my least favorite team.
   7. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: March 25, 2013 at 02:51 PM (#4395963)
Dumb signing, but I will once again grudgingly tip the cap to Scott Boras.

Lohse is going to be disaster on this contract.
   8. deputydrew Posted: March 25, 2013 at 02:59 PM (#4395968)
I understand that Lohse isn't popular with the statshead crowd, but he's been really good for the last 400 IP and all of his projections look really good for 2014. I'd really like him on my favorite team and $11,000,000 seems well below market for a pitcher of this caliber.
   9. jyjjy Posted: March 25, 2013 at 03:24 PM (#4396004)
Yeah, I don't get it. This isn't even average starter money.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: March 25, 2013 at 03:30 PM (#4396010)
The Cards don't get the Brewers #17, they get a sandwich pick ... which is still a sort of "surrendering" I suppose.

3-year contract ... good question. I suppose there's some tipping point where 3/$33 is more attractive than 1/$X ... i.e. you plan to be competitive for the next 3 years and you know that in 2014 you would need to sign somebody like Lohse and that person would cost you a lot more than $11. Or, more clearly, the Brewers thought he was worth 3/$39 if they didn't lose a pick so he's worth 3/$33 if they do -- the alternative being to wait until after the draft and compete with everybody else to sign him for 2.5/$33.

That's the best I got. Since I wouldn't sign Lohse for longer than I can throw him, I'm not the best guy to off ideas on why you'd sign him for three years.
   11. Spectral Posted: March 25, 2013 at 03:31 PM (#4396012)
Isn't Lohse basically a league average starter or a little below? That money doesn't seem so wild to me, although I'd be irritated about throwing away a draft pick to acquire mediocrity. I don't really follow what's in it for them, unless they have some weird belief that Lohse might actually have shown a new talent level at age 33. There's certainly nothing in his pitch speeds or peripherals that would suggest that though.
   12. salvomania Posted: March 25, 2013 at 03:35 PM (#4396017)
Lohse was hurt in 2009-2010, which limited his innings and his effectiveness. His last three full seasons have all been far better than "league average."

As long as he stays healthy I think this will work out fine for the Brewers.
   13. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: March 25, 2013 at 03:36 PM (#4396019)
This year's Jeff Suppan!
   14. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: March 25, 2013 at 03:37 PM (#4396022)
I guess I'm more pessimistic than most because I have absolutely no faith in Kyle Lohse's continued effectiveness, regardless of his numbers over the last three years. Not an empirically-based argument, to be fair.
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 03:37 PM (#4396023)

Isn't Lohse basically a league average starter or a little below?


Zips projects him for 3.1 WAR, so I'd say he's above average.
   16. jmurph Posted: March 25, 2013 at 03:37 PM (#4396024)
Huh, I actually expected the comments here to be about how this was a rare Boras misfire. I thought he'd get a better deal than this.
   17. deputydrew Posted: March 25, 2013 at 03:44 PM (#4396037)
Boras gets it done again. Dude's good.


Lohse finished 7th in the Cy Young voting and just took a pay cut. I'm not sure that's getting it done.
   18. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: March 25, 2013 at 03:53 PM (#4396049)
The Cards don't get the Brewers #17, they get a sandwich pick ... which is still a sort of "surrendering" I suppose.

Could you explain this?
   19. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 03:56 PM (#4396056)

Isn't Lohse basically a league average starter or a little below?


FIP/DiPS aside, Lohse went 14-8, 3.39, 188.1 IP, 2.2 rWAR in 2011 (crappy in the playoffs) and 16-3, 2.86, 211 IP, 3.9 rWAR while leading the league in starts in 2012.

I really like this deal for the Brewers. They're on the back half of the success cycle and Lohse is signing for a not-crazy contract. It's an overpay considering the timing (and I have to wonder why the hold up??), but Braun/Weeks/Hart/Ramirez aren't spring chickens and the Brewers' staff will benefit.
   20. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: March 25, 2013 at 03:56 PM (#4396058)
I suppose the Suppan, Wolf, and Doug Davis eras in Milwaukee were unexciting enough that this news seems like a harbinger of doom.
   21. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 03:58 PM (#4396060)
The Cards don't get the Brewers #17, they get a sandwich pick ... which is still a sort of "surrendering" I suppose.

Could you explain this?


They get a sandwich of their choice?
   22. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:00 PM (#4396066)
I guess I really am mis-assessing the quality of this signing. Everyone else thinks it's a good deal for the Brewers...I am instead unreasonably prejudiced by my refusal to believe that Kyle Lohse can be any good. I'm willing to admit that I'm probably way wrong here.
   23. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:01 PM (#4396069)
The Cards don't get the Brewers #17, they get a sandwich pick ... which is still a sort of "surrendering" I suppose.

Could you explain this?


The Brewers #17 pick just vanishes, along with the slotted money associated with the pick.

The Cards gain a sandwich pick and that slot money.

The assumption was that the Brewers would only sign Lohse after the June draft in order to keep the pick/slot money. Instead they now have a lot less money to use on the draft because of this signing.

They already had a shitty system; this signing will weaken it even further.
   24. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:03 PM (#4396070)
Thank you, Drexl.
   25. Joe Kehoskie Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:10 PM (#4396081)
People really overvalue draft picks around here, especially the No. 17 pick in what's shaping up as a weak draft.
   26. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:16 PM (#4396087)
a one year deal never made sense, unless he was going to re-up. if you're going to lose the pick, you may as well "depreciate it" as over a longer contract. and lohse shouldn't wait 'til after the a-s break...
   27. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:16 PM (#4396088)
Crispix Attacks Posted: March 25, 2013 at 03:56 PM (#4396058)
I suppose the Suppan, Wolf, and Doug Davis eras in Milwaukee were unexciting enough that this news seems like a harbinger of doom.


Don't forget about Braden Looper.

I still remember when Rafael Roque was the opening day starter for the Crew, so I probably shouldn't complain too much about adding the Powderkeg.

But it's so short-sighted to give up a first rounder and $33 MM/3 for a non-elite aging pitcher coming off a career year.
   28. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:22 PM (#4396094)

But it's so short-sighted to give up a first rounder and $33 MM/3 for a non-elite aging pitcher coming off a career year.


They paid him like an average-SP, not based off his career year.
   29. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:23 PM (#4396095)
Lohse finished 7th in the Cy Young voting and just took a pay cut. I'm not sure that's getting it done.

Yeah, I'd call this a draw, not a win, for Boras.
   30. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:25 PM (#4396098)
lohse will not enjoy the benefits of cardinals defensive play, cardinals coaching nor the cardinals bullpen.

this in combination of expected regression and playing in a homer favoring ballpark i think lohse has to be considered the best candidate for a train wreck of a season.

i understand that ryan braun is in his prime, corey hart will likely walk and aramis Ramirez could turn into a pumpkin at any moment.

still disappointed in this signing. unless lohse's improvement is tied to throwing a spitball i see him being a millstone around the brewers neck in 2013.

(a spitball is a repeatable skill. ergo, i would prefer knowing that is what cuased his improvement. but i do not hear that chatter around lohse)
   31. salvomania Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:31 PM (#4396106)
lohse will not enjoy the benefits of cardinals defensive play,


Perhaps the Brewers are worse, but the Cardinals have been seemingly punting defense, at least at a few positions, for a few years now.
   32. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:32 PM (#4396108)
I'm with Esoteric. I don't see this being a good deal for the Brewers. Lohse is a good pitcher but I think he's getting paid for what he's done and not what he will do.
   33. PreservedFish Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:37 PM (#4396114)
You can't complain about the contract here. It's a smaller contract than the one he signed in 2008, inked after he had posted an ERA under 4.00 for the first time in his life. This seems like a bargain, really.

I remember when my team signed Kevin Appier, coming off a 4.50 ERA, to a 4 year, $42 million contract. When the $/win going rate was so much less than it is today. That's identical to the contract Suppan signed with the Brewers. Hell, it's less than what Shane Victorino signed for this offseason.

The only question is the value of the draft pick.

edit > of course I wouldn't be surprised if he were singularly worthless to the Brewers, but that's just because such things are never surprising in baseball.
   34. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:45 PM (#4396122)
People really overvalue draft picks around here, especially the No. 17 pick in what's shaping up as a weak draft


The top end strength of a draft doesn't matter when you're picking 17th. What matters is the money that you are allowed to spend in a draft.

The MLBPA decided to screw over draftees by tying the total expenditure on draftees to the cumulative slotted value of their picks.

Losing a first round pick completely changes how much money that a team can spend on every pick.
   35. The District Attorney Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:46 PM (#4396126)
I remember when my team signed Kevin Appier, coming off a 4.50 ERA, to a 4 year, $42 million contract.
Well, if the Brewers can trade Lohse for a superstar like Mo Vaughn, then of course this is brilliant.
   36. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:51 PM (#4396133)
i don't know which defensive metrics folks will even listen to as being credible but based on a variety of metrics i see only one season of the last 10 where Milwaukee's defense could be interpreted as being clearly better than the cardinals, 2008.

   37. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:57 PM (#4396144)

Perhaps the Brewers are worse,


Yuniesky Betancourt is available.
   38. Spectral Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:58 PM (#4396145)
It seems like a lot of the negativity is coming from people that think basically the same I do, which is, "but Kyle Lohse isn't good". I guess that's not really the best reasoning in the world, but I'm still disinclined to think a 34 year old pitcher that's been up and down and has an unimpressive strikeout rate is going to maintain his 2011-2012 performance. I guess he doesn't need to in order to play up to that contract though. I don't know, I guess it's not totally unreasonable to think a couple marginal wins is the difference between them making the playoffs or not.
   39. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 25, 2013 at 04:59 PM (#4396147)
Also, decreasing the money that you are allowed to spend on the draft sucks when you're a fan of a team that has only one player listed among the top 100 prospects in baseball and the guy is listed in the 90s.
   40. zonk Posted: March 25, 2013 at 05:00 PM (#4396153)
Yuniesky Betancourt is available.


Not for long, in typical Yankees fashion, the Yankees are gobbling up every one that.... ok, I can't do it... I tried, but I'm laughing too hard.
   41. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 05:02 PM (#4396158)
Losing a first round pick completely changes how much money that a team can spend on every pick.

Actually, it doesn't, unless you were going to tank the 17th pick and take a shitty player.

A priori, you have to assume the 17th pick will cost 100% of slot.
   42. PreservedFish Posted: March 25, 2013 at 05:05 PM (#4396161)
The top end strength of a draft doesn't matter when you're picking 17th. What matters is the money that you are allowed to spend in a draft.

The MLBPA decided to screw over draftees by tying the total expenditure on draftees to the cumulative slotted value of their picks.

Losing a first round pick completely changes how much money that a team can spend on every pick.


This only matters if the Brewers wanted to draft a cheaper guy at #17 and then redistribute the extra money among picks from lower rounds. Some teams did this last year, and some did the opposite. And for all you know their international FA budget just got two million bucks larger - depends on how they do their budgeting.

edit > beaten by snapper. Curses!
   43. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 25, 2013 at 05:13 PM (#4396173)
Isn't there now a cap on international FA signings?
   44. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 25, 2013 at 05:18 PM (#4396181)
A priori, you have to assume the 17th pick will cost 100% of slot.


I'm not an ancient Roman, so I don't know what "a priori" means, but this does decrease the amount of spending that the Brewers can do in the upcoming draft.
   45. JE (Jason) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 05:29 PM (#4396196)
I don't think Boras deserves the kudos for the Brewers coughing up $33 million; as CP pointed out at the top of the thread, he gets credit for securing a three-year deal for a client one week before Opening Day. (By the way, was anyone seriously competing with Milwaukee for Suppan's services?)
   46. PreservedFish Posted: March 25, 2013 at 05:29 PM (#4396197)
Isn't there now a cap on international FA signings?


Yes, you're right. The budget probably didn't just grow by $2 million today, I was wrong about that. But it may have grown somewhat, they weren't necessarily going to hit the cap, and we don't know how they'll reallocate that money earmarked for their first round pick. It might also go to Lohse or to the owner's pockets. Not sure.

this does decrease the amount of spending that the Brewers can do in the upcoming draft.


Yes, by $2 million or so, but it also means they don't get their claws on a prospect that was himself likely to cost the same $2 million or so. It's wrong to assume that this will really alter their spending strategies in rounds 2+. They have less flexibility now, which is a negative, but I really doubt that this tiny aspect of the deal was much of a consideration.
   47. cardsfanboy Posted: March 25, 2013 at 05:30 PM (#4396200)
I guess I really am mis-assessing the quality of this signing. Everyone else thinks it's a good deal for the Brewers...I am instead unreasonably prejudiced by my refusal to believe that Kyle Lohse can be any good. I'm willing to admit that I'm probably way wrong here.


I think people around here don't seem to realize that 10mil is considered to be league average. I have to agree with the people saying this is one of Boras's misfires. Lohse should have been looking at 33Mil with a 2 year contract, not a three year contract.

It seems like a lot of the negativity is coming from people that think basically the same I do, which is, "but Kyle Lohse isn't good". I guess that's not really the best reasoning in the world, but I'm still disinclined to think a 34 year old pitcher that's been up and down and has an unimpressive strikeout rate is going to maintain his 2011-2012 performance.


How about maintaining his established norms. If he posts 180 innings at 100era+ each of the next three years, the contract was a good signing. If he posts 110 era+ it is a great signing. Heck it's a steal in that situation. He wasn't signed at a rate relative to Lohse of 2012. If you ignore his injury season of 59era+, you are looking at a guy who hovers at 100-110 era+.

   48. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 05:36 PM (#4396209)
I'm not an ancient Roman, so I don't know what "a priori" means, but this does decrease the amount of spending that the Brewers can do in the upcoming draft.

Well the word "prior" is hiding out right in there.

Ahead of time we don't know who the Brewers would have drafted at 17. It could have been a 2nd round guy who would be cheap, or it could be a HS guy or underclassman demanding more than slot to forgo college.

Our best estimate ahead of time (with zero insight into the Brewers' draft strategy or draft board) is that the 17th pick (or any pick) will cost the slotted amount.
   49. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 25, 2013 at 05:51 PM (#4396230)
Ahead of time we don't know who the Brewers would have drafted at 17.


I looked at the list of players picked 17th, it includes Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay.

Even if the Brewers were to spend slot money on the 17th pick, they could be missing out on a good player.

I wouldn't have given Lohse 3/33 MM without the lost draft pick. The lost pick just makes it a complete failure.

   50. Balkroth Posted: March 25, 2013 at 05:55 PM (#4396234)
lohse will not enjoy the benefits of cardinals defensive play, cardinals coaching nor the cardinals bullpen.

this in combination of expected regression and playing in a homer favoring ballpark i think lohse has to be considered the best candidate for a train wreck of a season.


I expect his h/9 and hr rates to go up (mainly due to what you mentioned), but I don't think he'll see a walk rate much (if any) above his 2.2/9 he posted with the Cardinals, and he'll still be a good pitcher because of it. He seemed to weather the loss of Duncan fine, and unless Molina really got a lot of good calls from framing/ump favoritism will manage coaching changes fine (I admit I don't know much about the Brewers coaching staff though).

I doubt he'll match his 2012 again, but I think he'll be an above average pitcher and easily produce more value than the 3/$33 million contract, I guess more than the 3/$37 million or so with the pick value thrown in (I forget what the studies showed a 17th pick is worth, but I thought it was around 4 million or so, but it might have been 6).

I get not liking giving up the 17th pick and the 2 million in signing allotment though.
   51. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 25, 2013 at 06:00 PM (#4396239)

I think people around here don't seem to realize that 10mil is considered to be league average.


This isn't true for the Brewers. They cannot spend that much on average players if they want to be competitive.
   52. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 06:01 PM (#4396241)
I looked at the list of players picked 17th, it includes Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay.

Even if the Brewers were to spend slot money on the 17th pick, they could be missing out on a good player.


And that's a fair argument. I was just refuting the idea that losing the 17th pick somehow handicapped the rest of their draft.
   53. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 06:05 PM (#4396247)
This isn't true for the Brewers. They cannot spend that much on average players if they want to be competitive.

Right, but Lohse projects better than average; he projects about 3 WAR for 2013. If you use the 0.5 WAR p.a. standard decline (not necessarily true for pitchers) that would be $33M for 7.5 WAR, or $4.4M per WAR. The Brewers can pay that for FAs.
   54. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 06:08 PM (#4396252)


I looked at the list of players picked 17th, it includes Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay.

Even if the Brewers were to spend slot money on the 17th pick, they could be missing out on a good player.


Yes, but look how shitty their system is right now. Obviously they would have picked someone stupid!
   55. cardsfanboy Posted: March 25, 2013 at 06:11 PM (#4396257)
This isn't true for the Brewers. They cannot spend that much on average players if they want to be competitive.


Maybe not, but it doesn't hurt to have a few average players, especially a pitcher. They have only one starting pitcher who is likely to exceed 180 innings pitched. Their rotation is suspect and needs at least one other spot that they feel with confidence, is able to go out every fifth day and keep them in the game.
   56. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: March 25, 2013 at 06:21 PM (#4396269)
I submitted this article as well. Mine had the tags 'Jeff Suppan', 'Randy Wolf', 'Free Agent Compensation', and 'Not Going To End Well'.
   57. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 25, 2013 at 06:23 PM (#4396273)
Yes, but look how shitty their system is right now. Obviously they would have picked someone stupid!


Well played.


Snapper: I appreciate how logical you have been in this thread. I just have an irrational hatred of Lohse, and now my team just signed him.

I cannot even type "Loshe" without cringing.
   58. PreservedFish Posted: March 25, 2013 at 06:24 PM (#4396276)
This isn't true for the Brewers. They cannot spend that much on average players if they want to be competitive.

That's not really true of the 2013 Brewers, though. They had dropped payroll by $20 million while retaining all of their good players (with the exception of Grienke, for whom they received a very good MLB-ready prospect). Were I a Brewers fan, I would want them to spend it. And it also ignores the possibility that Lohse is above average, as he has been for the last couple years and as the various projections make him out to be.

I get being mad about the lost draft pick, but this is really an OK deal for the Brewers. Again, he took a paycut despite a 2.80 ERA, and he had a career high in Ks and a career low in BB/9. I would suggest that the "but ... he's Kyle Lohse" factor is built into his contract. He could have made quite a bit more than this.
   59. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 07:07 PM (#4396301)
That's not really true of the 2013 Brewers, though. They had dropped payroll by $20 million while retaining all of their good players (with the exception of Grienke, for whom they received a very good MLB-ready prospect). Were I a Brewers fan, I would want them to spend it. And it also ignores the possibility that Lohse is above average, as he has been for the last couple years and as the various projections make him out to be.

Not to mention, there's no juggernaut in the Central. Even before this, the Brewers had about a 25% chance at the playoffs (as per SG's CAIRO projections).

Adding a 3 WAR SP has to increase that quite a bit.
   60. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 07:18 PM (#4396308)
Snapper: I appreciate how logical you have been in this thread. I just have an irrational hatred of Lohse, and now my team just signed him.

Hey, count yourself lucky, my team just paid $13M to get Vernon Wells ;-)
   61. zonk Posted: March 25, 2013 at 07:44 PM (#4396319)
Snapper: I appreciate how logical you have been in this thread. I just have an irrational hatred of Lohse, and now my team just signed him.

Hey, count yourself lucky, my team just paid $13M to get Vernon Wells ;-)


Heh... well, with BBC out -- the Astros are looking for new fans. Anyone that doesn't like their team to spend bad money on stupid players would do well to check them out!
   62. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 25, 2013 at 08:02 PM (#4396328)
the justification for the signing is certainly understood. i don't think any brewer fan is going to dispute those elements

for myself it bugs me that this is clearly in response to the struggles of rogers, fiers in spring training. which is not a sufficient reason to my mind unless the team later reveals an injury component. spring training is a time to prep, not throw shutouts

as i have mentioned above, i just see lohse fighting a lot of headwind beyond his control. there is going to be a correction of some kind and it has a chance to be ugly

i just don't the support network in Milwaukee that lohse had in st Louis. there is an organizational difference and it doesn't favor the brewers. that just 'is'.

i will be delighted to be wrong
   63. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 08:36 PM (#4396354)
Heh... well, with BBC out -- the Astros are looking for new fans. Anyone that doesn't like their team to spend bad money on stupid players would do well to check them out!

I think I'm rooting Blue Jays, Rays, Indians, A's, Nationals and Pirates this season. I really can't stand any of the NL West teams.
   64. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 09:45 PM (#4396412)
Well the word "prior" is hiding out right in there.


So ... a priori has something to do with arms falling off?
   65. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: March 25, 2013 at 10:19 PM (#4396431)
Yes, but look how shitty their system is right now. Obviously they would have picked someone stupid!

This is supposed to be funny, but it's actually right on. I'm with Drexl Spivey (I hate Kyle Lohse, I hate the Cardinals, and I hate the Cardinals essentially getting the Brewers' draft pick), but Bruce Seid's drafts have not been strong at the top at all. First-rounders, including supplemental, since Seid took over as scouting director:

2009 - Eric Arnett. A fine pick for the slot (though that it was the pick after Mike Trout came off the board will forever haunt me), but Arnett has totally tanked as a pro.
2009 - Kentrail Davis. Stock was a bit down coming into the draft. Has some tools but has been mediocre in the minors, including striking out 25% of the time in AA as a 24-year-old last year. Future bench player.
2009 - Kyle Heckathorn. Throws (threw?) hard but has never missed that many bats and has always been hittable. Moved to the bullpen.
2010 - Dylan Covey. Did not sign because of type I diabetes that was diagnosed after the draft. Nobody's fault, really, but obviously Covey isn't contributing anything to the Brewers. This pick turned into Jed Bradley below.
2011 - Taylor Jungmann. No real ace upside. Will be lucky to become Kyle Lohse.
2011 - Jedediah Custer Bradley. Plenty of upside, but his stuff and numbers both went to shit last year.
2012 - Clint Coulter. Widely regarded as an overdraft at the time. Older than you think, almost 19 when he was drafted. Won't stick at catcher. I'm being unkind to him, since he did hit and command the strike zone well in his debut.
2012 - Victor Roache. Yet to play due to wrist surgery.
2012 - Mitch Haniger. Barely played due to a knee injury.

So, yeah. Maybe the most recent class will all hit it big, but looking at the first three years, and viewing Covey and Bradley as one chance, Seid is 0/5 on fuckin'-a pick opportunities.
   66. sinicalypse Posted: March 25, 2013 at 10:21 PM (#4396433)
#47-- so we're completely discounting his earlier career in minnesota where save one decent season @ 107 OPS+ he was hovering in the 80s-90s? I see him at a 97 ERA+ for his career, and perhaps I'm basied, but I can't help but remember the first ~6-7 years of his career where he was just an arse-end-of-the-rotation-guy for a good team. I'll give you that he's had two nice seasons over the last two years, and it'sa quite possible that he learned how to pitch in the Cardinals system.... but if he ended up like 9-15 with a 4.58/1.42 would anyone really be all that surprised?

Granted there were character issues at the time, and now pretty legitimate injury issues, I told anyone who'd listen that the Brewers would rue the day that they gave up Brett Lawrie for Marcum.... and now they're giving up another first round pick for a guy who's had two nice seasons on a team renown for its ability to turn people around. We'll see what happens, I suppose. Suffice to say, I wouldn't want the guy anywhere on the pitching staffs in my fantasy baseball empire.
   67. salvomania Posted: March 25, 2013 at 10:28 PM (#4396436)
but if he ended up like 9-15 with a 4.58/1.42 would anyone really be all that surprised?


I'll take the over on the wins, and the under on everything else
   68. starksy Posted: March 25, 2013 at 11:15 PM (#4396459)
but if he ended up like 9-15 with a 4.58/1.42 would anyone really be all that surprised?


I'll take the over on the wins, and the under on everything else


Concur; Lohse really looked different in St. Louis (not sure how much that has to do with the water here)
   69. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 25, 2013 at 11:35 PM (#4396470)
According to fangraphs, Lohse threw the second most first pitch strikes in the majors last year (behind Milone).

I hate the idea of having an outlier move to a different environment while expecting him to perform at the same level.
   70. Yastrzemski in left. Posted: March 25, 2013 at 11:51 PM (#4396474)
“It doesn’t really matter what time dinner is when you’re the steak.”

I thought it was worth repeating.
   71. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 26, 2013 at 05:48 AM (#4396504)
rogers sent to the disabled list

that tilts things
   72. BrianBrianson Posted: March 26, 2013 at 05:58 AM (#4396505)
And that's a fair argument. I was just refuting the idea that losing the 17th pick somehow handicapped the rest of their draft.


No, it isn't. It's a complete horseshit argument. The Brewers shouldn't expect to get the best picks for the slot any more than you should expect to pay off your credit cards with your lottery winnings. Draft picks are a valuable commodity, because some work out and some don't. An individual draft pick is a complete crapshoot, and shouldn't be worried about too much.
   73. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 26, 2013 at 07:30 AM (#4396518)
Draft picks are a valuable commodity, because some work out and some don't. An individual draft pick is a complete crapshoot, and shouldn't be worried about too much.


I don't understand what you are trying to convey. A draft pick is "a valuable commodity" that "shouldn't be worried about too much." That doesn't make any sense.
   74. Dan Posted: March 26, 2013 at 07:32 AM (#4396519)
I expect his h/9 and hr rates to go up (mainly due to what you mentioned), but I don't think he'll see a walk rate much (if any) above his 2.2/9 he posted with the Cardinals, and he'll still be a good pitcher because of it. He seemed to weather the loss of Duncan fine, and unless Molina really got a lot of good calls from framing/ump favoritism will manage coaching changes fine (I admit I don't know much about the Brewers coaching staff though).


Lucroy is actually one of the best framers in MLB, and I believe Maldonado has been excellent so far in his limited MLB time according to the data. So if framing is part of what has helped Lohse over the past few years, then that's a reason he's a GOOD fit for the Brewers.
   75. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 26, 2013 at 07:46 AM (#4396524)
I'm pretty sure that MLB will do something to adversely impact the value of pitch framing before Lohse's contract expires.
   76. cardsfanboy Posted: March 26, 2013 at 11:34 AM (#4396724)
#47-- so we're completely discounting his earlier career in minnesota where save one decent season @ 107 OPS+ he was hovering in the 80s-90s? I see him at a 97 ERA+ for his career, and perhaps I'm basied, but I can't help but remember the first ~6-7 years of his career where he was just an arse-end-of-the-rotation-guy for a good team. I'll give you that he's had two nice seasons over the last two years, and it'sa quite possible that he learned how to pitch in the Cardinals system.... but if he ended up like 9-15 with a 4.58/1.42 would anyone really be all that surprised?


Yes, ignore his career prior to his age 28 season. I'm not sure what something done 6 years ago has on his ability today. Last five years, including his 60(I swear that was 59 the other day) in 2010 has him at 101 era+. Recognizing that the 60 was an injured year, and it's even better than that.

I don't see anything wrong with this contract if he puts up 100 era+ and 180 ip. In fact I think it's a good contract if he puts those numbers up on average over the three years of the contract. Anything better(220 ip or 110 era+) and it's a steal.

   77. Joey B. Posted: March 26, 2013 at 12:02 PM (#4396765)
I think he's getting paid for what he's done and not what he will do.

Like virtually every veteran player in the game.
   78. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2013 at 12:07 PM (#4396774)
No, it isn't. It's a complete horseshit argument. The Brewers shouldn't expect to get the best picks for the slot any more than you should expect to pay off your credit cards with your lottery winnings. Draft picks are a valuable commodity, because some work out and some don't. An individual draft pick is a complete crapshoot, and shouldn't be worried about too much.

Right, and if you have more, esp. high ones, you have a better chance of "making your number". Even in a crapshoot, making a 6 is a lot easier than making a 10.

The pick has value, and the value needs to be weighed against the value Lohse provides. It's a trade-off, but I think a reasonable one for the Brewers, at this point in time.
   79. DL from MN Posted: March 26, 2013 at 02:12 PM (#4396890)
In years past losing a draft pick wasn't as punishing because the team could spend more on international free agents to make up the difference. Now the international free agent budget is also capped.
   80. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: March 26, 2013 at 03:54 PM (#4396998)
Yuniesky Betancourt is available.


Local newspaper reporter just tweeted that this is actually happening.

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