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Tuesday, August 29, 2017

Brian Cashman is going to Japan with eyes on a superstar | New York Post

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman is the latest baseball executive traveling to Japan to scout superstar pitcher/outfielder Shohei Otani, according to a person with knowledge of the situation.
...
Due to the terms of the collective bargaining agreement and Otani’s age, the most he could get from the Yankees currently is about $8 million in a signing bonus. The only way to increase the amount is by acquiring other clubs’ international pool money in a trade.

Jim Furtado Posted: August 29, 2017 at 03:39 PM | 46 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: shohei otani, yankees

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   1. cmd600 Posted: August 29, 2017 at 04:17 PM (#5523025)
There's no way Otani is coming this winter. He can be a full-fledged free agent, and not be limited to just $8M after one more year.
   2. DL from MN Posted: August 29, 2017 at 05:10 PM (#5523065)
Even if Otani waits a year there are many reasons to start recruiting him now
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 29, 2017 at 05:12 PM (#5523069)
There's no way Otani is coming this winter. He can be a full-fledged free agent, and not be limited to just $8M after one more year.

I think it's at least 2 years. He just turned 23 in July, and needs to be 25 to be a true free agent. Not sure what date the age is calculated on.

But, I will agree he's be a fool to come over for $8M when he can make that much in Japan, and have a likely $200M payday in 2-3 years.
   4. stevegamer Posted: August 29, 2017 at 05:32 PM (#5523091)
I think that these visits are mostly groundwork for his full free agency.

I'm not sure who has the most signing bonus money available, but some of the teams that have traded for space might be able to make him think if the deal is structured right.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: August 29, 2017 at 05:33 PM (#5523093)
The Cubs will trade them all the international pool money they have for ... Gleyber Torres. Make it happen Cashman!
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 29, 2017 at 05:40 PM (#5523099)
I'm not sure who has the most signing bonus money available, but some of the teams that have traded for space might be able to make him think if the deal is structured right.

How?

The most any team has is $8M, and then Otani would be stuck making league minimum for almost 3 seasons before sniffing Arb.

Otani makes something like $2.5M in Japan. With raises over those same three years he will make something like $10M in Japan.

So he can make $10M in the US, and still be subject to Arb, or make $10M in Japan, and free to sign a $200M free agent deal.

This is the no-brainerest of no brainers.
   7. PreservedFish Posted: August 29, 2017 at 08:28 PM (#5523190)
This is the nation and culture that created kamikaze pilots and pillow marriages. Make no assumptions!
   8. ReggieThomasLives Posted: August 29, 2017 at 10:23 PM (#5523252)
i'm fine with the MLB rules to control the costs of new amateur talent and attempt to maintain a level playing field. And i hate every Yankees other than Cashman and A-Rod, and would hate for them to get Otani. But the fact that Otani can't get a $200M contract right now means the MLB shot itself in its foot with their own rules. They should have the best players in the world playing for them. If he has a career ending injury in the next two years it will serve them right.
   9. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: August 30, 2017 at 06:54 AM (#5523304)
The important thing is for the players to suffer so that Yankee-hating losers can feel better about themselves. Not sure if it's working, they're such s miserable lot.
   10. TomH Posted: August 30, 2017 at 07:21 AM (#5523307)
I'm a Yankee hater, and I feel Tony-the-Tiger-like GRRRRRRRREAT!
   11. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: August 30, 2017 at 07:37 AM (#5523313)
In Japan, he goes by Brian Salaryman.
   12. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: August 30, 2017 at 07:39 AM (#5523315)
I'm a Yankee hater, and I feel Tony-the-Tiger-like


Riddled with the Beetus?
   13. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: August 30, 2017 at 10:33 AM (#5523417)
If he has a career ending injury in the next two years it will serve them right.

I mean I suppose it is a question of whether the injury is a fluke or something more like blowing out his shoulder pitching. But I think the overwhelming reaction to a career ending injury before inking him to a $200m deal, would be a sigh of relief at having dodged that bullet.
   14. Rally Posted: August 30, 2017 at 10:41 AM (#5523423)
In Japan, he goes by Brian Salaryman.


I thought he was Brian Yenman.
   15. Rally Posted: August 30, 2017 at 10:45 AM (#5523428)
Is Otani even still a pitcher?

This year he has only pitched one game, and it didn't go well. 1.1 innings, 4 runs. He is hitting 345/409/556 in 44 games as a DH.
   16. PreservedFish Posted: August 30, 2017 at 11:01 AM (#5523439)
#15 - that's bizarre. I had no idea. The conventional wisdom on him was that he was a much better prospect as a pitcher than as a hitter. How unfortunate if he chooses one and not the other.

Of course if I threw 99 and had questionable bat skills and really wanted to take MLB by storm as a two-way player, I could see halting my pitching in an effort to stay healthy and concentrating on my hitting abilities.
   17. Rally Posted: August 30, 2017 at 11:25 AM (#5523456)
I'm pretty sure it wasn't by choice, but an injury that sidelined him. But I don't know what the prognosis is, when he'll return to the mound, or if this injury affects him going forward.
   18. Boxkutter Posted: August 30, 2017 at 01:05 PM (#5523512)
I am not sure of any exact rules, but what is to stop Cashman from convincing Otani to come over this Winter for the $8MM international slot money, and then next year signing him to a long term deal. Teams sign pre-arb players to long term deals all the time with players forfeiting free agency years. Cashman could easily work a handshake deal by saying, "Look, you come over and you get $8 million now cause it's all we can give you. But then after the first season, we'll sign you to a long term deal for 10 years and $250 million. #### the Dodgers."
   19. The Good Face Posted: August 30, 2017 at 01:19 PM (#5523524)
I am not sure of any exact rules, but what is to stop Cashman from convincing Otani to come over this Winter for the $8MM international slot money, and then next year signing him to a long term deal. Teams sign pre-arb players to long term deals all the time with players forfeiting free agency years. Cashman could easily work a handshake deal by saying, "Look, you come over and you get $8 million now cause it's all we can give you. But then after the first season, we'll sign you to a long term deal for 10 years and $250 million. #### the Dodgers."


What happens if Otani blows out his shoulder in that first season, or stinks up the place?
   20. PreservedFish Posted: August 30, 2017 at 01:26 PM (#5523528)
Pretty sure that such deals are not allowed, and this agreement (superstar signs with Yanks for zillions below market value) would demand special scrutiny.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: August 30, 2017 at 07:23 PM (#5523726)
I can imagine the rules could stop the Yanks from guaranteeing that in writing but I don't see how anything can stop them from doing it. The Cubs signed Bryant for whatever bonus then could have signed an extension with him the day after he made his ML debut (or even before). The Rays did this with Longoria, the Astros with Singleton and reportedly they tried to do it with Springer -- but all three of those cases were (mild) cases of extortion, not kindness. Obviously teams would start doing this anytime they want to once somebody finally does it which might require MLB to come up with some other awkward mechanism to keep young, foreign players from making what some of them deserve and keeping the Yanks/Dodgers/etc. in check.

What the Yankees would be extremely unlikely to do in that case though is sign him for 10/$250. They've got him, they'll at most give him a superstar arb buyout that takes full advantage of having him for 6 under-market years. Still, 10/$200 wouldn't look too crazy.

Question is whether the Yanks could get away with a verbal commitment to sign the big extension, along with some promise to cover him if he blows out in the first year.
   22. PreservedFish Posted: September 13, 2017 at 01:12 PM (#5530868)


Otani Reportedly to be Posted

Just like I said in #7.
   23. Nasty Nate Posted: September 13, 2017 at 01:25 PM (#5530876)
Pretty sure that such deals are not allowed, and this agreement (superstar signs with Yanks for zillions below market value) would demand special scrutiny.
Right. Verbal agreements of substance are not allowed. Although in this case, the hypothetical would be zillions above market value compared to other players with no service time.
   24. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 13, 2017 at 01:38 PM (#5530883)
You don't know what market value is for players with no service time because that market is artificially suppressed by the league.
   25. Nasty Nate Posted: September 13, 2017 at 01:42 PM (#5530888)
Yes, that's true. "Market value" isn't the right phrase, but I think my point was clear.
   26. Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB) Posted: September 13, 2017 at 01:49 PM (#5530892)
It'll be interesting to see what teams can even offer him as signing bonus, according to the article linked in #22, twelve teams have less than $300,000 remaining.

The Yankees made a couple of trades to bring in additional bonus money, but even they probably haven't got more than 2-3 million left (if I'm recalling what I read over at RAB a week or so ago).
   27. PreservedFish Posted: September 13, 2017 at 01:52 PM (#5530895)
On MLB.com I saw Heyman state that the Red Sox and Yankees have the most international bonus money available.
   28. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 13, 2017 at 01:57 PM (#5530899)
Well they started off with around $8 million, I think they still have ~5 left over.
   29. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 13, 2017 at 02:05 PM (#5530907)
Otani Reportedly to be Posted

Perhaps conventional wisdom underestimated Otani's interest in playing for the Yankees?
   30. Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB) Posted: September 13, 2017 at 02:10 PM (#5530908)
Well they started off with around $8 million, I think they still have ~5 left over.


This isn't exactly the post I was looking for, but it's similar:


It’s unclear whether Otani will actually be posting this offseason, though, for what it’s worth, Jon Heyman suggests the Yankees and Red Sox could be gearing up for bidding war. (Morosi says the Yankees are among Otani’s most serious suitors.). I say a “bidding war” because Otani will be limited to the international hard caps, so the bids can only go so high. Heyman says both the Yankees and Red Sox have traded for the maximum allowable additional hard cap space, giving them $8M to spend internationally during the 2017-18 signing period.

Both teams have, of course, already spent a lot of that money. They both loaded up on Latin American amateurs when the 2017-18 signing period opened on July 2nd. It’s impossible to know exactly how much of their $8M bonus pools they’ve spent so far because so many international deals go unreported. Here’s the little we know:

Yankees: Jesse Sanchez reportedly earlier this month the Yankees still had $3.5M to spend internationally. However, the Yankees were connected to several unsigned top prospects, and that money may be earmarked for them.
Red Sox: According to Sox Prospects, the Red Sox have already spent a little more than $7.15M of their international bonus money. They have less than $1M to offer Otani in that case.



RAB

That was posted 8/31.
   31. Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB) Posted: September 13, 2017 at 02:14 PM (#5530910)
Ah, here's the article I was looking for, it's from Monday:


Under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement teams can trade for an additional 75% of their original bonus pool. I didn’t realize that. It used to be 50%. The Yankees made three separate trades for international bonus space this summer — they made two minor deals with the Orioles and also netted bonus money in the Sonny Gray trade — and have reportedly maxed out their bonus pool. They started at $4.75M and are now at $8.3125M.

Bonus information for so many international deals goes unreported, and based on what we know, the Yankees have now spent $4.45M of their $8.3125M bonus pool. It is extremely likely they’ve spent more than that. Not necessarily a lot more — the big bonuses are always reported, but the small six-figure deals add up — but more. And, according to Badler (subs. req’d), the Yankees are still connected to several top unsigned international amateurs:

The Rangers still appear to be the favorites for Patiño, and while there’s more uncertainty with Salinas and Cabello, several sources believe they could go to the Yankees, who have traded up for additional bonus pool space.

The Yankees are also the favorites to sign Venezuelan shortstop/center fielder Osleivis Basabe, the No. 46 prospect, though there is talk he might wait until 2018 to sign.

Salinas is Venezuelan outfielder Raimfer Salinas and Cabello is Venezuelan catcher Antonio Cabello. Salinas and Cabello are ranked among the top 15 international prospects by both Baseball America and MLB.com, so they’re not nobodies. If they sign, they’re getting a nice chunk of change. As for Basabe, I’m not sure why he’d wait to next year to sign, but hey, if he’s willing, that saves 2017-18 bonus space.

All things considered, the Yankees may end up spending north of $6M on international amateurs this signing period should the Salinas and Cabello signings happen. Probably more than $6M. That’s just me guesstimating. All those smaller signings add up, and as consensus top 15 prospects, Salinas and Cabello should be locks for mid-to-high six-figure bonuses, maybe even seven figures. For now, $6M to $6.5M is a guesstimate.
   32. PreservedFish Posted: September 13, 2017 at 02:15 PM (#5530911)
Seems like a few million here or there isn't going to make a difference to the young man. I hope that he announces he will only sign with a team that allows him to pursue two-way play.
   33. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 13, 2017 at 02:25 PM (#5530928)
Seems like a few million here or there isn't going to make a difference to the young man. I hope that he announces he will only sign with a team that allows him to pursue two-way play.

Well, he's already pissing away $100M+ by not waiting, so who knows what's he's going to do. He's clearly not maximizing earnings.
   34. Nasty Nate Posted: September 13, 2017 at 02:34 PM (#5530940)
Article at fangraphs.
   35. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 13, 2017 at 03:18 PM (#5530998)
As I understand the Fangraphs article linked in #34, Otani could sign a big bucks extension after 1 year that MLB would be hard-pressed to claim was just an illegal work-around of the international bonus restrictions. So he's gambling an impactful MLB rookie season against the possibility he could have a career impacting injury during another season in Japan. Maybe he's not maximizing his guaranteed earnings, but Otani could still do pretty well. There's going to be incredible buzz about the guy if he even shows signs of actually being elite in both roles.
   36. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: September 13, 2017 at 03:23 PM (#5531006)
[35] The team would be under no legal obligation to offer an extension and would control his rights for six years (first three at mlb minimum)
   37. Nasty Nate Posted: September 13, 2017 at 03:28 PM (#5531013)
As I understand the Fangraphs article linked in #34, Otani could sign a big bucks extension after 1 year that MLB would be hard-pressed to claim was just an illegal work-around of the international bonus restrictions.
It wouldn't be hard-pressed to claim if he was bad/injured in that first year...

And if he was good and healthy, he wouldn't need any secret agreement to get a big bucks extension.
   38. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 13, 2017 at 03:29 PM (#5531016)
[35] The team would be under no legal obligation to offer an extension and would control his rights for six years (first three at mlb minimum)


Plus the league could just reach into its slush fund and start digging up dirt on any franchise that runs afoul of its shameless attempts to deprive players of fair market compensation. The Alex Rodriguez shows that the league has no reluctance in paying criminals for illicitly-obtained materials in pursuit of their pound of flesh, so you would assume the gloves would be off and all blackmail materials would be vigorously pursued. Sad Mr. Steinbrenner got suspended for the same thing, but those were different times.
   39. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 13, 2017 at 03:31 PM (#5531021)
I'd much rather see Otani go to a NL team, just so we get a chance to watch him hit.
   40. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 13, 2017 at 03:34 PM (#5531025)
I'd much rather see Otani go to a NL team, just so we get a chance to watch him hit.

The expectation seems to be that he'd hit more in the AL, where he could DH without running the risk of playing the field.
   41. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 13, 2017 at 03:36 PM (#5531029)
Yeah if he wants to hit he's got to go to the AL so he can HIT, as opposed to hit and play the field in his off-days.
   42. Ziggy: The Platonic Form of Russell Branyan Posted: September 13, 2017 at 03:39 PM (#5531033)
It's a hard cap, right? What would happen if a team just gave him a bazillion dollars and ignored it? It's not like they're going to kick the Yankees out of the American League.
   43. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 13, 2017 at 03:41 PM (#5531035)
Oh just give them an excuse. "Jeffrey Loria granted new expansion franchise in NYC."
   44. Nasty Nate Posted: September 13, 2017 at 03:42 PM (#5531036)
It's a hard cap, right? What would happen if a team just gave him a bazillion dollars and ignored it? It's not like they're going to kick the Yankees out of the American League.
OMIGOD the Yankees could have just signed Bryce Harper and Strasburg as amateurs even though the Nationals drafted them! Why didn't they think of that?
   45. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 13, 2017 at 03:45 PM (#5531039)
Has Otani got a brother? What if they signed his brother for $180 million as a "translator"? I love my brother very much, which is why I give him 99% of my salary every year. It's foolproof, I tells ya!!
   46. Nasty Nate Posted: September 13, 2017 at 03:46 PM (#5531043)
The league would have a good punishment option: void Shohei's contract but not his brother's.

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