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Thursday, September 04, 2014

Brisbee: Finding baseball’s most hopeless franchise

The included tweet should guarantee the honor just on principle.

Old teams in large markets with thin farm systems

This is where the Phillies are. This is where the Yankees are. Here be the White Sox… None of these teams will ever qualify for most-screwed status, though… their large-market status will always guarantee that there’s someone in a worse spot.

Older teams in small markets

The Reds might really be screwed… A lot of what makes the Reds a sorta-contender now, though, could still be good in the future… In about a week, the Brewers could be here… A lot of their best players are still 30 or under, though, so I’m not sure if they’re close to an “old” team just yet…

Cursed teams

the Padres… have a respected farm system, for what it’s worth, and they have young talent on the roster. Heck, they’re close to .500 right now because they’ve proven adept at developing pitchers, at least the ones who stay healthy.

They make the list, though, because they’re the Padres…

The Rockies

They get their own category because they win. What are the Rockies? Have you ever seen a team like this, a team so committed to its GM through 90-loss seasons, unless that’s not really the GM? An owner who might be something of a meddler and whose brain might be filled with gestational YouTube comments that he filters through his fingers and shares with fans?

Their franchise players are chronically hurt, and they have a long track record of breaking young pitchers, both in body and spirit. Everything about them is a mess right now, from the top down. That’s all before you get to the worst part: They already start with the biggest disadvantage in baseball, the thin air of Coors Field… It’s one of the Hilbert problems of baseball, except it’s been the same mathematicians working on the problem for the last 15 years, and most of the available evidence suggests they’re using a watch calculator with the “7” key missing.

The District Attorney Posted: September 04, 2014 at 04:27 PM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brewers, mets, padres, phillies, reds, rockies, white sox, yankees

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   1. cardsfanboy Posted: September 04, 2014 at 05:07 PM (#4785654)
He hand waves the Mets out of there as if their large market status immediately means they are safe. Not sure I agree with that though, I think before you can say a large market can absorb an above value contract for a decent player, you should be sure that the team has 1. decided they are willing to do that and 2. have the ability to recognize those values. I just don't see anything like that in the way the Mets operate.

And putting the Brewers in a category as a future possible is just nuts. Arguably one of the five best teams in the NL, lots of young players who are contributing and a front office that has done a fine job of acquiring valuable pieces. Until they fail, you have to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Off the top of my head, the most hopeless franchises(assuming over the next five years?)
Mets, Padres(well regarded farm system, but not sure that they have proven ANY ability to develop a player(non-reliever) into a major leaguer), Rockies, Twins.(way too many nl teams on there, as you could probably add Marlins and Diamondbacks easily to this list, and I don't think I'm overlooking anyone other than maybe the White Sox from the al list)
   2. Moeball Posted: September 04, 2014 at 05:17 PM (#4785660)
I know KC is looking at postseason play this year, but I give them zero chance of going anywhere with it.

I would say KC and Houston are pretty hopeless right now. They won't win any championships within the next 5 years and they won't have programs in place to ensure continued competitiveness after that.

As a Padres fan, of course, I put San Diego at the top of the list. It's really depressing to watch this team play although they do seem to keep having a lot of those Petco Park specials where the game is tied 2-2 going into the 9th, so I guess there is that sort of drama.
   3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 04, 2014 at 05:23 PM (#4785663)
I would say KC and Houston are pretty hopeless right now.


Ha! You couldn't tell it from being here!
   4. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 04, 2014 at 05:26 PM (#4785664)
The Rockies do a lot of frustrating things, and this has been mostly a lost year, but I don't find them totally hopeless. The most important thing you want your team to do during a lost year is give the kids enough playing time to establish themselves. They did that this year with Nolan Arenado (.296/.337/.500 with great defense at third) and Corey Dickerson (.311/.369/.578). If Tulo and Cargo can play 140 games apiece next year, that's a nice core. They also gave some kid pitchers a shot, like Jordan Lyles and Tyler Matzek.

They need to stop farting around with mid-career mediocrities like Drew Stubbs and Brett Anderson, and to a lesser extent older, fading stars like Cuddyer and Morneau. And they need to stop doing stupid things like hiring a manager off a high school campus. But they're really not too far away from being an 85-win team.
   5. cardsfanboy Posted: September 04, 2014 at 05:27 PM (#4785666)
I would say KC and Houston are pretty hopeless right now. They won't win any championships within the next 5 years and they won't have programs in place to ensure continued competitiveness after that


I don't think winning championships is the only gauge of whether a team has "hope" as long as they are competitive each year, hope remains. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Houston competing for a wild card spot in two years. I can see why some of the fans might feel hopelessness right now in Houston, but they have a decent nucleus forming some talented arms that really just need maturity. Assuming any player acquisition competency in the organization and they are right there. They have the problem of probably playing in the best division in baseball, and that the Rangers are a much better team than their record indicates this year, but I don't think them being competitive in two years is out of the question.
   6. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 04, 2014 at 05:30 PM (#4785670)
And putting the Brewers in a category as a future possible is just nuts. Arguably one of the five best teams in the NL, lots of young players who are contributing and a front office that has done a fine job of acquiring valuable pieces. Until they fail, you have to give them the benefit of the doubt.
They don't look that young to me. Their best players are all in their prime years, or towards the back end of their primes. I like them for this year, maybe even next... but not after that.
   7. shoewizard Posted: September 04, 2014 at 05:33 PM (#4785671)
The D backs will not have a division title or pennant capable rotation for quite some time. They have goldschmidt and a bunch of 4 th outfielders, #4 starters, and utility infielders. Thank you Kevin Towers
   8. kthejoker Posted: September 04, 2014 at 05:40 PM (#4785674)
They won't win any championships within the next 5 years and they won't have programs in place to ensure continued competitiveness after that.


Championships are hard, at most 5 teams will win championships in the next 5 years, so that's a pretty terrible gauge of hopelessness.

And Houston is pretty much going all-in on having a strong farm system, so not sure how that second part is even remotely true.
   9. Harry Balsagne, anti-Centaur hate crime division Posted: September 04, 2014 at 05:46 PM (#4785676)
The Twins are screwed as long as they stick to the light-hitting/speed/defense/pitch-to-contact paradigm. Gardenhire needs to go, and I'm pretty sure he's staying.
   10. AndrewJ Posted: September 04, 2014 at 05:58 PM (#4785683)
The Phils are in bad shape, but OTOH they signed a new cable deal earlier this year which adds quite a bit more to their coffers. Assuming they can resolve the Ryan Howard situation they could rebuild their farm system quicker than you might initially think.
   11. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: September 04, 2014 at 06:12 PM (#4785687)
The D backs will not have a division title or pennant capable rotation for quite some time. They have goldschmidt and a bunch of 4 th outfielders, #4 starters, and utility infielders.
And they have grit!
   12. cardsfanboy Posted: September 04, 2014 at 06:40 PM (#4785704)
They don't look that young to me. Their best players are all in their prime years, or towards the back end of their primes. I like them for this year, maybe even next... but not after that.


Prime is what matters... If you have a core of 27-32 year olds that is high quality (lucroy, Gomez, Braun, and even Weeks) add in a few youngsters(Davis, Scooter etc.) and a franchise that has shown a desire to acquire components (like Lohse) that fill in gaps then I don't think hopelessness is likely to enter the equation.
   13. Guapo Posted: September 04, 2014 at 07:17 PM (#4785721)
A: Winning Percentage Rank
B: Age of 2014 Team Ranked Youngest to Oldest
C: Ranking of Minor League System Prior to 2014 (by Fangraphs)
D: Size of Market
E: Payroll Ranking
F: Lack of Payroll Flexibility = (D – E)

Team: A + B + C + F = Screwed Factor

Ari: 28 + 11 + 16 + (16 – 11) = 60
Atl: 12 + 3 + 27 + (13 – 14) = 41
Bal: 2 + 8 + 14 + (24 – 15) = 33
Bos: 25 + 27 + 5 + (14 – 4) = 67
Cubs: 23 + 4 + 4 + (5 – 23) = 13
CWS: 24 + 5 + 25 + (6 – 20) = 40
Cin: 20 + 14 + 17 + (27 – 12) = 66
Cle: 14 + 10 + 10 + (28 – 26) = 36
Col: 29 + 9 + 15 + (25 – 17) = 61
Det: 8 + 24 + 19 + (15 – 5) = 61
Hou: 27 + 1 + 1 + (9 – 30) = 8
KC: 5 + 17 + 9 + (29 – 19) = 41
LAA: 1 + 21 + 30 + (4 – 6) = 40
LAD: 6 + 26 + 12 + (3 – 1) = 42
Mia: 17 + 2 + 26 + (11 – 29) = 27
Mil: 11 + 22 + 29 + (30 – 16) = 76
Min: 26 + 18 + 2 + (20 – 24) = 42
NYM: 21 + 19 + 13 + (2 – 22) = 35
NYY: 13 + 30 + 20 + (1 - 2) = 62
Oak: 4 + 20 + 22 + (18 – 25) = 39
Phi: 22 + 29 + 21 + (8 – 3) = 77
Pit: 16 + 6 + 3 + (26 – 27) = 24
SD: 19 + 16 + 8 + (21 – 21) = 43
SF: 10 + 28 + 18 + (17 – 7) = 66
Sea: 9 + 12 + 11 + (19 – 18) = 33
StL: 7 + 7 + 7 + (22 – 13) = 30
TB: 18 + 23 + 23 + (23 – 28) = 59
Tex: 30 + 13 + 6 + (7 – 8) = 48
Tor: 15 + 25 + 24 + (10 – 10) = 64
Was: 3 + 15 + 28 + (12 – 9) = 49

Rankings, Most Screwed to Least:

1. Philadelphia
2. Milwaukee
3. Boston
4 (tie) Cincinnati and San Francisco
6. Toronto
7. NY Yankees
8 (tie) Colorado and Detroit
10. Arizona
11. Tampa Bay
12. Washington
13. Texas
14. San Diego
15 (tie) Dodgers and Minnesota
17 (tie) Atlanta and Kansas City
19 (tie) White Sox and Angels
21. Oakland
22. Cleveland
23. NY Mets
24 (tie) Baltimore and Seattle. Note that Seattle is arguably the #6 least screwed organization.
26. St. Louis
27. Miami
28. Pittsburgh
29. Cubs
30. Houston
   14. PreservedFish Posted: September 04, 2014 at 07:28 PM (#4785728)
Checks out.
   15. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: September 04, 2014 at 07:43 PM (#4785739)
The Mets and Marlins get a huge and undeserved boost in that list from how you calculate payroll flexibility. A couple teams, like the Tigers and Boston, get unfairly penalized.
   16. JRVJ Posted: September 04, 2014 at 07:48 PM (#4785741)
Seems odd to use the farm system PRIOR to 2014 as a ranking, since teams' present situation going forward must reflect their farm system and 2014 draft (in case that those players didn't actually get to play in a franchises' farm system).
   17. Guapo Posted: September 04, 2014 at 07:55 PM (#4785745)
The Mets and Marlins get a huge and undeserved boost in that list from how you calculate payroll flexibility. A couple teams, like the Tigers and Boston, get unfairly penalized.


Oh really, MR SUBJECTIVITY? We're dealing with HARD NUMBERS here. I'm penalizing both the Tigers and Boston some more just because of your comment.

Seems odd to use the farm system PRIOR to 2014 as a ranking, since teams' present situation going forward must reflect their farm system and 2014 draft (in case that those players didn't actually get to play in a franchises' farm system).


Seems odd that you think I HAVE a more up-to-date ranking, poopyhead. Maybe my google is broken or something but those were the most up-to-date rankings I found in the 10 seconds I spent looking for them.

DO NOT CRITICIZE SCREWED FACTOR.
   18. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 04, 2014 at 08:41 PM (#4785758)
Prime is what matters... If you have a core of 27-32 year olds that is high quality (lucroy, Gomez, Braun, and even Weeks) add in a few youngsters(Davis, Scooter etc.) and a franchise that has shown a desire to acquire components (like Lohse) that fill in gaps then I don't think hopelessness is likely to enter the equation.
What would concern me about the Brewers is that none of the young guys can be projected to be Lucroy, Braun, Gomez, etc., and the Brew really do need all their parts working to be a contender. It's not hard to see one of the Brewers big three or four drop off, and it's not hard to see one of those young guys not maintaining their 2014 levels. I really liked the Brewers this year, but they're walking something of a tight rope.

Also, Guapo's Screwed Factor has Milwaukee at #2 Most Screwed. DO NOT CRITICIZE SCREWED FACTOR.
   19. The District Attorney Posted: September 04, 2014 at 09:28 PM (#4785779)
You might want to also include Pancake Flops.
Rk Team         PF
1  Tigers       -19.12
2  Blue Jays    -20.15
3  White Sox    -20.82
4  Brewers      -21.04
5  Rockies      -21.11
6  Rangers      -21.67
7  Cardinals    -21.78
8  Orioles      -22.02
9  Red Sox      -22.11
10 Indians      -22.18
11 Royals       -22.27
12 Pirates      -22.50
13 Astros       -22.56
14 Marlins      -22.62
15 Rays         -23.04
16 Yankees      -25.14
17 Angels       -25.25
18 Giants       -25.37
19 Dodgers      -25.62
20 Athletics    -25.66
21 Braves       -25.77
22 Nationals    -25.83
23 Padres       -26.45
24 Diamondbacks -26.91
25 Mets         -27.17
26 Cubs         -29.40
27 Twins        -30.58
28 Mariners     -30.71
29 Phillies     -34.10
30 Reds         -36.55
   20. TJ Posted: September 04, 2014 at 09:31 PM (#4785782)
DO NOT CRITICIZE SCREWED FACTOR.


Whether you agree or disagree with the methodology or the results, you have to respect any standard named the "Screwed Factor"...
   21. PreservedFish Posted: September 04, 2014 at 09:44 PM (#4785789)
I would also like to see how the teams rank in SBB's Excitement Index.
   22. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 04, 2014 at 10:09 PM (#4785807)
Detroit could be interesting to see in a few years. Mike Ilitch is 85, there is no succession plan that has been made public, he has subsidized that team for years, and they have some really big contracts on the books. In 2017 they'll be paying $89 million to Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Anibal Sanchez, Ian Kinsler, and Prince Fielder. Dombrowski is a really smart GM, but is he going to want to be around those years? The farm system doesn't look that hot to me right now. It wasn't that long ago that Detroit was considered a mid-sized market in MLB. I can see the Tigers becoming bad in a hurry.
   23. RMc is a fine piece of cheese Posted: September 04, 2014 at 10:10 PM (#4785808)
Interesting how the nine Most Screwed (tm) teams include the last two World Champions, a perennial contender and a team that could well win its fourth straight division title this year.

Meanwhile, none of the nine Least Screwed (also tm) seem close to winning anything except the Cardinals (because they're the f@%king Cardinals)...
   24. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 04, 2014 at 10:49 PM (#4785831)
Oh really, MR SUBJECTIVITY? We're dealing with HARD NUMBERS here. I'm penalizing both the Tigers and Boston some more just because of your comment.


Not bad.
   25. alilisd Posted: September 04, 2014 at 11:07 PM (#4785835)
So The Curse of The Garvey is becoming recognized outside of San Diego. Good.
   26. Cooper Nielson Posted: September 04, 2014 at 11:14 PM (#4785840)
Detroit could be interesting to see in a few years. ... It wasn't that long ago that Detroit was considered a mid-sized market in MLB. I can see the Tigers becoming bad in a hurry.

As a Tiger fan, I agree. Almost all of the key players are post-peak, there doesn't seem to be much help in the high minors, and the payroll could become a big problem the minute someone besides Mike Ilitch is in control. But looking at it optimistically:

1. There's a lot of money in MLB. The Tigers' home attendance this year will likely be somewhere north of 2.7 million and I think I read recently that their local cable broadcasts are the highest rated in the game. So it's possible that by 2017, $89 million won't be considered a crippling amount of money for the Tigers, even if those 4 players (Fielder's gone, obviously) are just kinda mediocre.

2. Though the Tigers haven't really produced a lot of stars from their farm system, they've managed to spin their "prospects" into valuable trade chits after 2-3 years in the minors. This is possibly sustainable. (Though it does require payroll flexibility.)

3. It's possible that Cabrera's diminished (but still good) numbers and Verlander's poor season are largely injury-related, and after an offseason of healing, they will play more like their "old selves" over the next few years. Though, obviously, age is not on their side.

4. Dombrowski might be able to dig up a "free" J.D. Martinez every year or two.

5. The AL Central doesn't look to have any true power team on the rise, so the Tigers may be able to continue to make the playoffs by winning 85-90 games.

I can't say I like the Tigers' prospects for 2016 and beyond, but I've learned to trust Dombrowski and I think he can be creative. So, fingers crossed, maybe there won't be the massive collapse that everyone is expecting.
   27. Don Malcolm Posted: September 04, 2014 at 11:57 PM (#4785862)
Guapo, can you run that same calc for previous seasons? That would be a quick and dirty way to see if the results have any predictive value...
   28. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: September 05, 2014 at 01:44 AM (#4785888)
To me number one is the Padres. There's really no point to having the Padres. If every thing breaks right, they could win 82 games some year. They'll never be terrible, they'll never be great, the weather's nice, the games are over quickly, they don't bother anyone. It's like having a team in an OOTP league being run by the computer. Nothing is ever going to really happen.
   29. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: September 05, 2014 at 02:27 AM (#4785894)

Guapo, can you run that same calc for previous seasons? That would be a quick and dirty way to see if the results have any predictive value...


I'm thinking the Red Sox looked even more screwed heading into the 2013 season.

   30. Dr. Vaux Posted: September 05, 2014 at 02:33 AM (#4785895)
I hate to be optimistic about the Tigers future, but . . .

They've spent the money because it's been there. But if a lot less is there, Dombrowski has won without spending money, too. And the payroll's not going to go down below Braves/Cardinals levels, and nobody else in the AL Central competently spends any more than that. So money won't be the problem and they have a good GM. No team in that position is really in a bad position. If Dombrowski leaves or retires, they'll almost certainly hire a smart analytics type--that's basically a given nowadays. I think that in the near future we're going to start thinking that division titles are basically won by scouting directors. (And on that score, the Tigers don't seem to be in very good shape.)
   31. Win Big Stein's Money Posted: September 05, 2014 at 03:36 AM (#4785896)
You conveniently left out that they spent the money because their owner is 85 years old and knows he can't take it with him. He knows damn well he isn't going to see the end of any of those massive contracts they threw out. When he passes, which knock on wood, prolly isn't long in cumming, that payroll is going to go where it always does. Back into the new owners pockets.
   32. Dr. Vaux Posted: September 05, 2014 at 05:18 AM (#4785901)
That's what I mean. It isn't going to be $200 million anymore, but if Liberty Media is willing to spend $95 million or whatever it is they're spending on the Braves, a new Tigers owner will spend at least that much. Nobody in the division spends more than that (except the White Sox sometimes, but they have to do it competently). That's what I mean by money not being an issue. The payroll's not going to be a Marlins situation, and the division is no AL East.

It's the same reason money is never a problem for the Cardinals. Now, if the Cubs are about to enter a new era of spending their money astutely and developing talent, the team in the most danger of falling from where they've been recently is the Cardinals.
   33. Win Big Stein's Money Posted: September 05, 2014 at 05:40 AM (#4785902)
Dombrowski's a great GM sure. But that money is a huge advantage. They have 4 players combining for $87mill/year for the four years. $95 million means they're replacing all of Scherzer, Price, Porcello, VMart, Nathan, Soria, et al. with replacement level players. Sure they'll be competitive but they'll go from dominating their division to scrapping by like everyone else, with a very real chance of missing the playoffs. That looks like an issue to me.
   34. Flynn Posted: September 05, 2014 at 05:53 AM (#4785903)
To me number one is the Padres. There's really no point to having the Padres.


Sure there is, it's so all the nice people from San Francisco and Los Angeles who moved down to San Diego for college, or because they're in the service, or for the phenomenal weather/relaxed vibe get to see their teams play a couple times a year.
   35. Rusty Priske Posted: September 05, 2014 at 08:56 AM (#4785938)
The screwed Factor is The Best Thing Ever.

(Even though, as a Jays fan, it makes me sad...)

I just have to say that if we see an Astros / Mariners World Series within five years, that would be rad.
   36. Astroenteritis (tom) Posted: September 05, 2014 at 09:08 AM (#4785944)
I've gotten more optimistic about the Astros each year since McLane sold the team. The next couple of years aren't likely to be anything to shout about, but there is hope. The tail end of the McLane era was about as hopeless as a franchise can get. Having a good minor league system is a big factor in having hope. Now if Crane refuses to bump the payroll up over the next few years the team could rocket up the screwed standings.


if we see an Astros / Mariners World Series within five years, that would be rad.

We're back in the National League!
   37. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: September 05, 2014 at 09:29 AM (#4785956)
I think the Met payroll has stabilized and won't be decreasing over the next few seasons. They are down to 85 million from 150 million in 2009 so it's been a drastic decline. The Mets added payroll this offseason to get to 85 so I don't think they want to decrease any more.

The Mets should be competitive as soon as next year.
   38. Guapo Posted: September 05, 2014 at 11:11 AM (#4786028)
Guapo, can you run that same calc for previous seasons? That would be a quick and dirty way to see if the results have any predictive value...


Unfortunately kind of swamped with real life today, but maybe I'll play around with it later this weekend.

Also, Screwed Factor is open source, so I encourage others to play around with the components and refine it. As long as you don't criticize it.

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