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Friday, February 07, 2014

Bronson Arroyo signs with Arizona

Bronson Arroyo has signed a two-year deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

Arroyo will get $9.5 million the next two seasons with a third-year option worth $11 million and $4.5 million buyout, according to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com.

Arroyo turns 37 on Feb. 24. He went 14-12 with a 3.79 ERA in 202 innings for the Reds last year. He’s thrown at least 199 innings every year since 2005.

He was 105-94 with an 4.05 ERA in his eight seasons with the Reds. The club did not make a qualifying offer of $14.1 million to Arroyo after the season. That means they will not receive a draft pick in compensation.

Thanks to Petitclerk.

Repoz Posted: February 07, 2014 at 07:43 PM | 45 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: d-backs

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   1. DL from MN Posted: February 07, 2014 at 08:22 PM (#4653481)
He gets his $11M per season but that option might look like it's worth picking up at only $6.5M net.
   2. Willie Mayspedes Posted: February 07, 2014 at 08:32 PM (#4653485)
Over under on how many HR's will he give up in Arizona over the course of the contract: 100?
   3. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: February 07, 2014 at 08:37 PM (#4653490)
Meh, they can have him. Beckett/Billingsley can hold the fort for a year. The Dodgers need rotation slots for Scherzer and/or Shields after the season anyway.
   4. God Posted: February 07, 2014 at 08:56 PM (#4653503)
I think the Dodgers really needed him. What's the over/under on how many starts the Dodgers will need this year from pitchers other than Kershaw/Ryu/Greinke/Haren/Beckett/Billingsley? I'm guessing about 20-25. That's more than enough to justify paying Arroyo.

Last year the Dodgers required 36 starts by pitchers other than the eight starters they went to Spring Training with.
   5. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: February 07, 2014 at 08:56 PM (#4653504)
I like the deal for Arizona. Look, if you expect him to give you 380 innings over the next two years, with an ERA+ of 95 over that span, you're probably going to be OK. Durability as a starting pitcher is one of the most undervalued attributes in American team sports...and Arroyo has one of the more durable careers of his generation...
   6. Willie Mayspedes Posted: February 07, 2014 at 09:08 PM (#4653508)
Better than the Kazmir signing? Pretty similar money I think.
   7. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: February 07, 2014 at 10:52 PM (#4653524)
Over under on how many HR's will he give up in Arizona over the course of the contract: 100?

If he's doing that poorly, the option probably doesn't get picked up. Which would make it hard to get to the century mark.

Also, it's not like he's coming from Petco. He's allowed 58 HRs in the last two years in a very HR friendly park (though split evenly by home/road).
   8. Walt Davis Posted: February 07, 2014 at 10:52 PM (#4653525)
From my post in the other Arroyo thread:

As to his current state ...

in the expansion era, 117 pitchers aged 34-36 had at least 400 IP. Of those 117, Arroyo is 80th in WAR at 5.1 and is 40th in IP at 603. If we limit it to the last 20 years to make some adjustment for 5th starters, etc. you get 48 pitchers of which he is 37th by WAR and 14th by WAR. By WAR and IP, his closest comps would be Burnett and Lieber.

Back to the first list and keeping everybody between 4 and 6.5 WAR and seeing how that group did at 37-38 ... we've got 24 comps ...

J Niekro 8.5 WAR
J Perry 7.9
Roberts 6.3

apparently it's good to be the brother of a better-known pitcher. Assuming there's no Gaylord Arroyo out there ...

Tewk 3.3
Renko 2.1
Pierce, Byrd, Contreras 1.6
Morris 1.4
Flanagan 1.1
Tapani 1.0

13 guys worth less than 1 WAR (Miguel Batista at -2.1). You can also add Rhoden and Pavano who didn't pitch at 37 (and 38 for Rhoden, Pavano might pitch this year). Out of this group, 5 made it over 250 IP and another 4 between 200-250. Median IP is about 180 and median WAR is about .9. With above-average durability, Arroyo is probably expected to pitch more than 180 IP at 37-38 but I wouldn't count on substantially more WAR.

1/$8 would be OK, add a vesting option to taste.
   9. Willie Mayspedes Posted: February 07, 2014 at 11:17 PM (#4653531)
He's allowed 58 HRs in the last two years in a very HR friendly park (though split evenly by home/road).


And 46 the year before..

EDIT: I think you are correct it's not likely. It's definitely possible though he could average 33+ for 3 years and pitch decently for 200 innings a year. (Gave up 32 last year)
   10. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 07, 2014 at 11:19 PM (#4653532)
Eleven years ago Monday, the Red Sox claimed Arroyo off waivers from Pittsburgh. He's won 129 games since then.
   11. God Posted: February 07, 2014 at 11:27 PM (#4653536)
Combine that with the Red Sox getting Wakefield for free because Pittsburgh didn't want him, and you start to see why the Pirates have been such a mess for so many years.
   12. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 07, 2014 at 11:56 PM (#4653545)
Yeah, well, the Pirates had to waive Arroyo so they could hang on to future stars like Duaner Sanchez and Frank Brooks.
   13. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: February 08, 2014 at 12:01 AM (#4653547)
And Jose Bauti--oh, damn it.
   14. God Posted: February 08, 2014 at 12:13 AM (#4653550)
At least they got a good return when they punted on the last 12 years of Aramis Ramirez's career.
   15. Dolf Lucky Posted: February 08, 2014 at 12:28 AM (#4653552)
A few quick observations on Arroyo from a Reds fan:

1) His nickname is Saturn Nuts. I'm not aware of a better nickname in the game.

2) I'm sure one of the data guys can find a more extreme example, but I don't remember seeing a pitcher who was mostly good...but has such a violent dichotomy between good and bad starts. That's not said very well, but in 2013, Arroyo had 20 starts in which he was awarded the win or took a no decision: ERA in those starts = 2.02. ERA in his 12 losses = 7.63. You tend to know pretty quickly which guy you're getting when he takes the mound.

3) A side-arm 60 mph curveball is just fun to watch, dammit.

4) If enjoyability to talent were a measurable ratio, Arroyo would rank at the top for recent Cincy players. Homer Bailey, conversely...

5) I hope he pitches through this contract and into the next one. Best of luck in the desert, except for when the Reds are in town.
   16. God Posted: February 08, 2014 at 12:50 AM (#4653556)
How many current MLB players are documented to have been named after celebrities?

Bronson Arroyo - Charles Bronson
Juan Pierre (is he active?) - Juan Marichal
Robinson Cano - Jackie Robinson
Eric Young Jr. - (guys like this don't count)

I'm sure there are others, but that's all I got right now. Elvis maybe?
   17. JJ1986 Posted: February 08, 2014 at 12:59 AM (#4653558)
Prince Fielder is named after Prince.
   18. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: February 08, 2014 at 01:29 AM (#4653561)
Coco Crisp - Coco Puffs
   19. hokieneer Posted: February 08, 2014 at 01:35 AM (#4653562)
Agree with everything in 15.

Elaborating on your 2nd point a little more: in a lot of years it's not even the totality of his losses that run up the ERA. It can usually be traced back to 2-3-maybe 4 starts where he gives up 8+ runs and doesn't make it out of the 2nd. My brother and I always said he was like a pseudo knuckleballer. Some days the junk's just not breaking/moving/sliding and it's just bp for 30 minutes.
   20. robinred Posted: February 08, 2014 at 01:46 AM (#4653563)
As a Reds fan, I am sorry to see Arroyo leave.
   21. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 08, 2014 at 02:01 AM (#4653566)
Is Theodore Roosevelt a celebrity?
For that matter, is Theodore Roosevelt Lilly a current MLB player?
   22. Walt Davis Posted: February 08, 2014 at 02:09 AM (#4653567)
That's not said very well, but in 2013, Arroyo had 20 starts in which he was awarded the win or took a no decision: ERA in those starts = 2.02. ERA in his 12 losses = 7.63.

This is pretty common actually. The really good starters usually have something like 25-26 good starts and 6 pretty terrible ones; the good starters are more like 20/10; even the #5 guys tend to be about 15/15 although those 15 usually aren't awesome.

For example, in 2013, Arroyo had 22 QS and a 101 ERA+. Jarrod Parker had 23 QS and a 94 ERA+. Cain had 20 QS and a 83 ERA+, Hamels had 25 QS and a 106 ERA+.

Of course QS don't always work out neatly into wins and losses. But Arroyo did go 12-3-6 in his QS ... which means I missed one.

In Wainwright's 7 worst starts, he gave up 36 ER in 40 IP; outside of those starts he had a 1.92 ERA. Even Scherzer at 21-3 had 7 non-QS comprising 40 IP and 31 ER; 1.97 ERA outside of that. In his 9 non-QS, Parker gave up 44 ER in 40 IP; in his 23 QS, his ERA was 2.46. In his 10 non-QS, Cain gave up 51 in 44 innings; 1.99 ERA in the other 20. Even Kershaw had an ERA over 5 in his 6 non-QS (2 of his non-QS are due to not going 6, covering 10.2 innings and just 3 ER).

Among the even less successful, Kyle Kendrick had 17 QS in 30 starts and an 81 ERA+. A non-QS ERA of 9 in 65 IP, 2.31 ERA in the other 17. Even Casey Coleman in 2011 managed 4 QS and another 4 5+ IP starts with an ERA of 2.30 in 47 IP -- roughly half his starts. Alas in his other 9 starts, he was good for just 36 IP and 45 ER.

QS-ERAs in the range of 2.30-2.50 like Parker, Kendrick and Coleman are probably pretty bad by QS-ERA standards.

b-r doesn't seem to have the splits I want but ... in their 90 wins, the Reds gave up only 201 runs, including unearned runs. That's an RA of just 2.23. In their 72 losses it was 5.40.

So pretty much every starter is a pitcher of extremes when looked at in this fashion.

   23. God Posted: February 08, 2014 at 02:30 AM (#4653568)
Ted Lilly retired but that's a good one. He and Jackie Robinson were named after the same guy!
   24. AROM Posted: February 08, 2014 at 03:21 AM (#4653569)
Ryne Duren Sandberg

Willie Mays Aikens
   25. God Posted: February 08, 2014 at 03:30 AM (#4653570)
Yeah, I know there are a lot of old players (Cal McLish is another one) but I was really more curious about current guys.
   26. Sonic Youk Posted: February 08, 2014 at 03:59 AM (#4653571)
"Saturn Nuts" is a name that Curt Schilling gave to Arroyo in an interview before game 3 2003. I am so glad it's still stuck around.

Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena is as bad as a crummy-role-player for unlikely star trade can turn out. Arroyo was pretty decent for the sox and I hope he keeps it up.
   27. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: February 08, 2014 at 06:04 AM (#4653575)
arroyo is a pretty rotten pitcher but he ACTS like he has a clue up there.

arroyo isn't special with the glove but he has a dramatic flair and even suckered voters into gold glove one season.

from the opposing fan's view that is what is mildly annoying about arroyo. yes he contributes as a pitcher. but arroyo presents himself as some kind of awesome and does just enough to not look like a total idiot with this persona.

   28. God Posted: February 08, 2014 at 08:38 AM (#4653580)
I loved his role in "Spaceballs."
   29. TerpNats Posted: February 08, 2014 at 09:48 AM (#4653597)
What's the chain reaction of this regarding A.J. Burnett? Will Baltimore feel more compelled to sign him? Might the Nats make a late push for him as a fifth starter? Would the Yankees seriously pursue him? Could he come back to the Pirates?
   30. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: February 08, 2014 at 10:03 AM (#4653601)
Burnett's going to Philadelphia unless Washington gets involved, I think. Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh's ownership looks to be pursuing a winter strategy of pretending to be willing to spend money while not being, in fact, willing to spend money.
   31. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: February 08, 2014 at 10:24 AM (#4653606)
argh, i meant 'hitter'

sorry
   32. Dolf Lucky Posted: February 08, 2014 at 10:38 AM (#4653609)
Harveys,

Agreed on Arroyo being a net minus at the plate, but he also has six career homers. Everything about the guy seems so improbable. I understand why fans of other teams would find him annoying, but he's a great guy to have on your roster. He's rather compatible with Brandon Phillips in that way, I guess.

Things that are annoying/secretly lovable about Arroyo:
The leg kick
The hair
The side job as a musician
The terrible swing (that sometimes sends the ball out of the yard)
The fastball that struggles to break 87 mph
The arm angles
The smirk
The fact that the Reds fleeced Theo.

Sorry, that last one is transparently lovable.
   33. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: February 08, 2014 at 10:50 AM (#4653613)
I'm a big Red Sox fan, but I am happy for Arroyo. The Red Sox sort of bait-and-switched him back in the day, signing him to a three-year deal for surprisingly little money. Arroyo was very public about it, saying he was willing to take less money to stay in Boston.

Then, soon after, Theo traded him for Wily Mo Pena. I got the idea behind the trade - Epstein has said in the past that finding elite power hitters is among the hardest things in baseball player development, so if you can get one, you do it. Pena certainly had elite strength and power...but couldn't put it together.
   34. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: February 08, 2014 at 11:23 AM (#4653615)
I'm a Yanks fan and I've always admired Arroyo, even when he was on the Sox. I guess I've always been partial to pitchers who have easy, fluid motions, and are willing to throw super slow sweeping curves now and then. My favorite pitcher ever is El Duque. Arroyo is just a fun guy to watch, even if he has awful taste in music.
   35. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: February 08, 2014 at 11:29 AM (#4653616)
I'm a big Red Sox fan, but I am happy for Arroyo. The Red Sox sort of bait-and-switched him back in the day, signing him to a three-year deal for surprisingly little money. Arroyo was very public about it, saying he was willing to take less money to stay in Boston.

Then, soon after, Theo traded him for Wily Mo Pena.


I always wondered about that. Did Theo lie to Arroyo and tell him that yeah, we definitely want you in Boston for years to come? It seems obvious to me that if I were going to take less money to stay in a city I like living in, I would insist on an ironclad no-trade clause. Of course the team can refuse, but in that case I'd just have to grimace and go elsewhere, or else insist my current team pay top dollar.
   36. donlock Posted: February 08, 2014 at 11:34 AM (#4653617)
#16
Bronson Arroyo - Charles Bronson
Juan Pierre (is he active?) - Juan Marichal
Robinson Cano - Jackie Robinson
Eric Young Jr. - (guys like this don't count)


Don't get the Eric Young reference.

Nothing to do with baseball but I wonder how many guys who are 50-51 named Paul are the offspring of the fantasies of those screaming girls at the Ed Sullivan show.If I were born in 1964, I would probably have been named "Ed" or "Ringo", or "Soupy". (He was on the same Sullivan show, with his hit song "Do the Mouse".
   37. KT's Pot Arb Posted: February 08, 2014 at 11:37 AM (#4653618)
Jarrod Parker had 23 QS and a 94 ERA+.


Jarrod packaged it very uniquely last year.

Started with 23.1 innings of 8.10 ERA.

Pitched 159 innings of 2.89 ERA.

Finished with 14 innings of 9.06 ERA.
   38. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: February 08, 2014 at 12:04 PM (#4653626)
Don't get the Eric Young reference.


See the Jr.

   39. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: February 08, 2014 at 12:08 PM (#4653630)
I always wondered about that. Did Theo lie to Arroyo and tell him that yeah, we definitely want you in Boston for years to come? It seems obvious to me that if I were going to take less money to stay in a city I like living in, I would insist on an ironclad no-trade clause. Of course the team can refuse, but in that case I'd just have to grimace and go elsewhere, or else insist my current team pay top dollar.


I believe Arroyo signed the extension with Cherington/Byrnes as caretaker GMs during Theo's gorilla suit sabbatical. Theo should have held to any agreements made during that time by a club representative but it wasn't all Theo screwing him over (though he did get screwed).
   40. Rennie's Tenet Posted: February 08, 2014 at 03:44 PM (#4653686)
Eleven years ago Monday, the Red Sox claimed Arroyo off waivers from Pittsburgh. He's won 129 games since then.


The Pirates dealt Princeton Chris Young in the same offseason as he cut Arroyo. Dave Littlefield had a lot of novel ideas, and I've always wondered if he didn't have something against tall pitchers.
   41. BDC Posted: February 08, 2014 at 04:19 PM (#4653695)
Through-age-36 comps for Arroyo, centered on him in terms of Starts and ERA+:

Player             WAR  GS ERA+   W SV     IP
Bump Hadley       35.7 355  105 161 25 2945.2
Bruce Hurst       35.0 359  104 145  0 2417.1
Bob Buhl          28.9 350  106 160  5 2449.2
Vern Law          27.3 354  102 160 13 2575.0
Floyd Bannister   27.2 363  103 133  0 2351.0
Bronson Arroyo    26.5 355  104 138  1 2278.2
Mike Hampton      20.7 355  107 148  1 2264.0
Aaron Sele        20.5 352  101 145  0 2099.1
Bob Forsch        19.5 359  102 143  3 2371.0
Rudy May          19.3 354  102 145  9 2497.2 


A lot of those careers ended at age 36. Bob Forsch had the most left, with another decent year as a starter and a couple hanging on as a swingman; Forsch would win another 25 games. I'd see no indication that Arroyo will fade away at this point, though.
   42. jingoist Posted: February 08, 2014 at 05:43 PM (#4653705)
"If I were born in 1964, I would probably have been named "Ed" or "Ringo", or "Soupy".
Or, maybe White Fang of Black Tooth
   43. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: February 08, 2014 at 05:59 PM (#4653709)
I think the Dodgers really needed him. What's the over/under on how many starts the Dodgers will need this year from pitchers other than Kershaw/Ryu/Greinke/Haren/Beckett/Billingsley? I'm guessing about 20-25. That's more than enough to justify paying Arroyo.


And that's why they just got Paul Maholm. http://dodgersdigest.com/
   44. Elvis Posted: February 08, 2014 at 07:44 PM (#4653726)
Jarrod packaged it very uniquely last year.

Started with 23.1 innings of 8.10 ERA.

Pitched 159 innings of 2.89 ERA.

Finished with 14 innings of 9.06 ERA.


Jeremy Hefner:

Started with 14 IP and a 7.07 ERA
Pitched 94 innings with a 2.78 ERA
Finished with 22.2 innings of a 9.13 ERA
   45. Shoebo Posted: February 09, 2014 at 07:28 AM (#4653795)
The difference in the middle between 159 IP and 94 IP is fairly significant.

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