BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: Brookover: Phillies’ deal for Howard not all that bad in light of Pujols and Fielder situations

Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, December 08, 2011

Brookover: Phillies’ deal for Howard not all that bad in light of Pujols and Fielder situations

Yeah, but doesn’t Ryan Howard’s contract kick in right around the time OSIRIS-REx starts sending signals back from asteroid 1999 RQ36?

Given those circumstances, the Phillies might have been pushing for a deal with Fielder instead of Howard. Fielder, after all, is four years and seven months younger than Howard and is coming off a much better season.

Amaro said he’s perfectly happy to have Howard for a five-year deal because he believes he may have had to pay him over 10 years if he had hit the free-agent market.

“I don’t want to pay him for 10 years,” the general manager said. “I don’t think any of those three guys would be wanting less than the other.”

...But what’s done is done, and the Phillies have to live with what they paid Howard. It’s not as if they are stuck with a bad player. Howard ranked sixth in baseball and third in the National League in RBIs last season with 116, and that’s because he hit .298 with runners in scoring position.

...The clock starts ticking on Howard’s five-year, $125 million deal in 2012, and there is a large population that believes the Phillies overpaid for their slugger. Maybe they could have had Fielder if they had waited. It’s doubtful that Pujols would have left St. Louis unless the Phillies were willing to pay an absurd amount of money.

There are a lot of consolation prizes worse than Ryan Howard.

Repoz Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:11 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: brewers, business, cardinals, phillies

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:46 PM (#4010041)

“I don’t think any of those three guys would be wanting less than the other.”

Of course the flaw in this logic is that the other two are much better players than Howard.

2. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:54 PM (#4010047)

I don’t think any of those three guys would be wanting less than the other.”

Of course the flaw in this logic is that the other two are much better players than Howard.

Count the RBI titlezzzzzzzzz.

3. Nasty Nate Posted: December 08, 2011 at 03:59 PM (#4010051)

If we believe the rumors, when all is said and done Howard's contract might have the highest AAV going forward of all the big-money 1B right?

4. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:02 PM (#4010056)

Fangraphs runs over replacement, last three years, for 1B:

+168 Bat + 1 Run + 7 Field +68 Rep -34 Pos = +210 Pujols
+147 Bat - 3 Run + 8 Field +64 Rep -33 Pos = +182 Votto
+159 Bat - 3 Run - 7 Field +67 Rep -35 Pos = +182 Cabrera
+135 Bat -12 Run +18 Field +70 Rep -36 Pos = +174 Gonzalez
+142 Bat -16 Run -11 Field +71 Rep -37 Pos = +148 Fielder
+ 86 Bat - 1 Run + 5 Field +70 Rep -36 Pos = +123 Teixeira
+ 91 Bat - 2 Run -10 Field +63 Rep -36 Pos = + 88 Konerko
+ 54 Bat - 3 Run + 7 Field +57 Rep -30 Pos = + 85 Lee
+ 79 Bat -18 Run -12 Field +66 Rep -34 Pos = + 75 Howard
+ 68 Bat -17 Run -10 Field +67 Rep -41 Pos = + 67 Butler
+ 46 Bat - 0 Run - 7 Field +59 Rep -31 Pos = + 66 Pena 

Howard isn't close to Fielder or Pujols in value or projected value. Even if you consider only the hitting numbers, he's somewhere between Billy Butler and Paul Konerko, a 3rd tier 1B talent.

5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:02 PM (#4010057)

If we believe the rumors, when all is said and done Howard's contract might have the highest AAV going forward of all the big-money 1B right?

Yup. For the worst player.

6. Sweatpants Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:06 PM (#4010062)

Behind Derrek Lee? I was under the impression that Lee was a corpse from his brief time in Atlanta.

7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:11 PM (#4010071)

Behind Derrek Lee? I was under the impression that Lee was a corpse from his brief time in Atlanta.

Howard is a slightly above avg. 1B; one of the most overrated players in baseball.

Just for some context, in an injury marred, 99 G season, ARod matched Howard's WAR, and Howard makes almost as much as ARod.

8. Dan The Mediocre Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:13 PM (#4010075)

Behind Derrek Lee? I was under the impression that Lee was a corpse from his brief time in Atlanta

Lee was still pretty good as a hitter in '09. Plus he has baserunning and fielding value over Howard.

9. Hack Wilson Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:13 PM (#4010076)

Behind Derrek Lee? I was under the impression that Lee was a corpse from his brief time in Atlanta.

Yes, but Derrek is a great clubhouse presence, just like the "Ghost from Christmas Past."

10. The Gurus DO NOT BourbonSamurai Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:16 PM (#4010082)

Howard for 5 years for 125 million is exactly half of what Pujols got from anaheim.

11. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:17 PM (#4010086)

Derrek Lee had an excellent season in 2009, the last of his career. He's not really all that relevant, except to say that one excellent season in three years is enough to give Derrek Lee more value over the last three years than Ryan Howard.

I wouldn't trade for Howard if the Phillies covered more than half of his contract going forward. It's a terrible deal.

12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:18 PM (#4010091)

I wouldn't trade for Howard if the Phillies covered more than half of his contract going forward. It's a terrible deal.

Concur. I rather have the horrific ARod contract. At least there's a chance ARod has a 5-6 WAR season left in him if healthy.

13. salvomania Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:19 PM (#4010094)

when all is said and done Howard's contract might have the highest AAV going forward of all the big-money 1B right?

Not any more....

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/08/report-albert-pujols-signing-with-angels-for-10-years-and-at-least-250-million/

14. Dan The Mediocre Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:20 PM (#4010097)

Derrek Lee had an excellent season in 2009, the last of his career. He's not really all that relevant, except to say that one excellent season in three years is enough to give Derrek Lee more value over the last three years than Ryan Howard.

Lee has also been around 110 OPS+ the past two years. That's only 12 points of OPS+ over two seasons that he has to make up with 3 years of defense and baserunning.

And I would guess that Lee will also be more valuable over the life of Howard's contract.

15. Textbook Editor Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:21 PM (#4010099)

Amaro said he’s perfectly happy to have Howard for a five-year deal because he believes he may have had to pay him over 10 years if he had hit the free-agent market.

No one would have had a gun to Amaro's head saying "Pay Howard $25 million a year for 10 years. NOW!" had he waited, and if that was what he honestly believes Howard would have gotten given the market this off-season, Amaro doesn't understand how to value players on the open market.

16. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:40 PM (#4010155)

Phillies’ deal for Howard not all that bad in light of Pujols and Fielder situations

Newt Gingrich campaign surges in wake of Hermain Cain harassment allegations, campaign gaffes

17. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 08, 2011 at 04:50 PM (#4010180)

In 2011 those players whose primary position was 1B hit .270/.346/.450 fro an OPS+ of 117
in 2010 it was .265/.352/.455 and 118
in 2009 it was .276/.363/.487 and 122

That's more than 50 players each year.
The median starting 1B (starting 1b defined as the 30 1Bs each year with the most PAs)
2011: 117
2010: 114
2009: 126

Howard:
2011: 125
2010: 127
2009: 141

Better than the average 1B yes... but not by a ton

18. Textbook Editor Posted: December 08, 2011 at 05:38 PM (#4010293)

#16--I laughed.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

<< Back to main

Thursday, December 08, 2011

Brookover: Phillies’ deal for Howard not all that bad in light of Pujols and Fielder situations

Reader Comments and Retorts

Support BBTF

Bookmarks

Hot Topics