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Saturday, March 27, 2010

Brunnell: Could Adrian Beltre Crank 30 Home Runs in 2010?

And…could Yuck crack the Top 40 in 2010? Only time will tell!

ESPN’s Matthew Berry—aka “The Talented Mr. Roto”—revealed his “bold predictions” for the 2010 baseball season. One such prediction was Adrian Beltre slamming 30 home runs.

Is such a prediction possible? Absolutely.

Beltre’s eight home runs last year were largely an aberration borne out of three factors: his home park, his injuries and attrition.

His career slugging percentage in Safeco Park, home of the Seattle Mariners, is .408. He spent five years playing for the Mariners and boasts a career slugging percentage mark of .453, indicating that playing in Safeco robbed him of his power. This is nothing new, as Safeco is widely considered a ark friendly to pitchers.

In his final year with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2004, before moving to Seattle, Beltre bashed a league-leading 48 home runs. Even with Safeco working against him, he cranked 25, 26 and 25 home runs from 2005 to 2008, respectively. Simply moving from Safeco to a park friendlier to right-handed hitters will make all the difference in getting those five extra home runs to notch 30.

Looking at 2009 park factors, Safeco was the 24th toughest park to hit a home run in in 2009 with a 0.886 rating. (A park factor of 1.00 indicates the park favors neither hitters nor pitchers.) Fenway Park ranked 21, but with a .964 mark, a significant jump.

Repoz Posted: March 27, 2010 at 12:44 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: mariners, red sox, sabermetrics

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1. Swedish Chef Posted: March 27, 2010 at 01:15 PM (#3487076)

If anybody wants to bet, I'll take the under.

2. I Am Not a Number Posted: March 27, 2010 at 01:22 PM (#3487078)

What's the over/under on the percentage of people taking the under?

What, too meta?

3. Bobby Savoy Posted: March 27, 2010 at 01:58 PM (#3487084)

Repoz, you might like the split that that single's on: Herzog/Yuck

4. BrianBrianson Posted: March 27, 2010 at 02:02 PM (#3487086)

Yes, but he won't.

Next question.

5. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: March 27, 2010 at 03:00 PM (#3487106)

I don't think he'll hit 30, either, but how about these questions:

1) Will he play in 140 games this year?
2) Will he hit 20 HRs this year?
3) Will he meet or exceed a stat line of .270/.335/.475?
4) Will he be one of the, say, two best defensive third basemen in the AL in 2010?

If he can do the above, he'll be a significant upgrade over what they were otherwise facing in 2010...

6. Dan Szymborski

Posted: March 27, 2010 at 03:40 PM (#3487116)

It's quite a reach. You can't just forget about 2009 and the differences in expected homers between parks is extremely small.

2009 was actually the first time since 2005 that Safeco had a lower HR park factor than Fenway.

Beltre's numbers will likely look prettier in 2010, but it'll be from singles and doubles, not homers.

Seriously, if you ignore 2009, the most relevant season, for Beltre, only look at 2009 for park factors, ignore Beltre's recent injury record, and ignore Beltre's age, he's still more likely than not to hit less than 30 homers.

7. pkb33 Posted: March 27, 2010 at 03:51 PM (#3487119)

8. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: March 27, 2010 at 03:53 PM (#3487121)

In his 5 years in Seattle, he hit almost as many HR at home (50) than on the road (53). Now, most guys I suppose have a better HR rate at home than on the road, but enough to turn a 25 HR guy into a 30 HR guy? In the three years that he hit 25 or 26, he hit a few more at home than on the road.

edited for typo

9. Repoz

Posted: March 27, 2010 at 04:23 PM (#3487128)

you might like the split that that single's on: Herzog/Yuck

Yup...and I like the Herzog slice better.

Plus Transparent rules.

10. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: March 27, 2010 at 04:54 PM (#3487144)

Matthew Berry is a dead ringer for the wacky air traffic control guy from Airplane! Even his voice is the same.

11. pkb33 Posted: March 27, 2010 at 05:54 PM (#3487174)

Don't have full PF by platoon handy, but found some 2005 BP data that has Fenway as much better HR park for RHB (105 vs 76) and Safeco as much better for lefties (113 to 86).

The author probably should have worked that issue through fully in the article, but I think there's a better chance than people are suggesting.

Of course, I also think Beltre isn't going to work out batting-wise....but I see where the argument is coming from.

12. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 27, 2010 at 05:59 PM (#3487179)

Beltre’s eight home runs last year were largely an aberration borne out of three factors: his home park, his injuries and attrition.

I was just going to check on his home/road HR splits, but Misirlou already posted them. I will point out that his eight homers last year were evenly split between home and road games, so that really wasn't a factor.

And I'm not sure what "attrition" means in this context.

13. CFiJ Posted: March 27, 2010 at 06:43 PM (#3487193)

Ichiro could teach Beltre to hit 30 home runs in 2010, if he wanted to.

14. RollingWave Posted: March 27, 2010 at 06:43 PM (#3487194)

no, or he'll win a MVP.

next question?

15. Walt Davis Posted: March 27, 2010 at 07:31 PM (#3487212)

Surely somebody's looked at it since but I recall an old study that showed the obvious -- Fenway was very friendly for HR to LF, absolute death on HR to CF (I recall the factor here was about .5) and very hard on HR to RF.

16. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: March 27, 2010 at 07:35 PM (#3487215)

Fenway was very friendly for HR to LF,

Surely you jest. Don't you know how many HR Fenway cost Jim Rice?

17. xbhaskarx Posted: March 27, 2010 at 07:41 PM (#3487217)

Is he back on the juice or not?

18. Tricky Dick Posted: March 27, 2010 at 08:11 PM (#3487231)

This article from Fangraphs back in October provides some evidence that Beltre's SLG percentage should get a boost from leaving Safeco Field. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/adrian-beltres-bat-away-from-safeco/

Whether that translates to 30 HRs...I doubt it, but sure it's possible.

19. JoeHova Posted: March 27, 2010 at 08:23 PM (#3487236)

More than 1,500 total yards and eight scores (or the fantasy points equivalent) for Darren McFadden.

Shaun Hill wins the starting quarterback job, throws for 3,000-plus yards and has at least 26 total touchdowns.

-Matthew Berry, 8/19/09

These seem like articles that the guy only writes because somebody at ESPN makes him. Or maybe he does it just to mess around and have some fun. Either way, I doubt he really puts much effort or thought into these, judging from the jokey (yet unfunny) tone.

20. AJM Posted: March 27, 2010 at 09:08 PM (#3487248)

Would they be "bold predictions" if they were likely to happen?

21. JoeHova Posted: March 27, 2010 at 09:37 PM (#3487258)

Would they be "bold predictions" if they were likely to happen?

No, but my point was more that they seem to be more random than anything.

22. pkb33 Posted: March 27, 2010 at 09:54 PM (#3487263)

Berry is, to me, an entertainer....he's not an analyst. If you read his fantasy stuff the way you read Sports Guy's, that's taking it the right way I think.

23. Mike Webber Posted: March 27, 2010 at 11:12 PM (#3487293)

We need a BTF bold predictions thread, a sticky one that stays on the top.

24. Walt Davis Posted: March 28, 2010 at 12:47 AM (#3487318)

We need a BTF bold predictions thread

Butler in the final 4!

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Brunnell: Could Adrian Beltre Crank 30 Home Runs in 2010?

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