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Thursday, November 08, 2018

Bryce Harper free agency focus at GM Meetings

Huge ten-year contracts pretty much suck. Pass.

While that contract would be the largest for a free agent, it would not surpass Giancarlo Stanton’s record-breaking 13-year, $325 million deal from 2014, nor would it surpass Zack Greinke’s $34.42 million for the highest average annual value. Harper has confirmed he is seeking a long-term deal, but accepting a contract with no opt-outs would lock Harper up for the entirety of his prime without giving him the chance to earn more money should player contract values continue to rise with increasing revenues throughout the sport.

If Harper and his camp are seeking a record-breaking deal of as much as $400 million, getting such a lucrative offer from Washington before any other bidders were allowed to enter the picture must be encouraging. Now, they are expecting teams such as the Cardinals, Giants, Phillies and White Sox to get involved, although Boras would not rule out the Cubs and Yankees, who have reportedly denied interest.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 08, 2018 at 05:27 AM | 5 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: bryce harper

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   1. Belfry Bob Posted: November 08, 2018 at 11:18 AM (#5784246)
I'm just not getting this - don't see the justification for a record-setting contract for Harper. If the defense hadn't fallen off, if he hadn't had not one, but TWO ordinary years already, if the 9-WAR season had been one of the last two, and not three years ago, perhaps - but ALL of those things have happened. He's obviously a star-quality player, but to sign up for 10 years at even 30 per just strikes me as something I'd have to pass on.

The concept that he's only 26 - I get that. But if he's going to end up at FB in a couple of years, I don't see the value.
   2. Bote Man Posted: November 08, 2018 at 11:19 AM (#5784247)
Scott Boras on Bryce Harper: Certainly Harper’s bazaar has begun.

But wait! There's more!

Boras just said LSU’s baseball attendance is greater than the Marlins: The fans of Florida have certainly brought the MIA to Miami.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 08, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5784258)
He's obviously a star-quality player, but to sign up for 10 years at even 30 per just strikes me as something I'd have to pass on.

The concept that he's only 26 - I get that. But if he's going to end up at FB in a couple of years, I don't see the value.


He's got a 140 OPS+ through age 25, with 175-190 upside. Manny Ramirez was at 140 OPS+ through 25, so was Miguel Cabrera.

The idea is you can control an elite, elite bat through his entire prime. That's why you go 10 years. Even at 1B, a Ramirez/Cabrera bat plays as a HoFer.

I would love to see the Yankees sign Harper for 10/350 and stick him at 1B. I think he'd stay healthier and absolutely mash.

But, I wouldn't give the 10 years if he insists on an early opt-out.
   4. Bote Man Posted: November 08, 2018 at 12:38 PM (#5784308)
Walt discussed this at length in yesterday's Harper thread, saying that opt-outs aren't really worth much.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 08, 2018 at 02:35 PM (#5784405)
Walt discussed this at length in yesterday's Harper thread, saying that opt-outs aren't really worth much.

I think an opt-out for Harper will be worth a lot. His past production is so volatile, that his future production has a huge range.

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