By the time Hanley turned 25 he had amassed 22.2 WAR (per Baseball-Reference). In baseball’s history, only 57 position players have had that sort of exceptional start to their career and an astonishing 75% of those players have been inducted into the Hall of Fame (if eligible). So when Hanley’s age-26 season came to a close in October of 2010 with his final WAR tally at just 2.6, there was a clear, unmistakable sense of disappointment. Fans were perplexed; this was not simply a ‘slightly above-average’ shortstop, this was g.d. Hanley Ramirez!
...Is this planet-sized sense of disappointment in Hanley Ramirez justified? How often in baseball’s history have we seen such a promising young player rack up WAR totals so quickly and then utterly disintegrate with the coming of his so-called prime years?
I took all players from baseball’s past and present that had at least matched Hanley’s 22.3 WAR before their age-26 season and then compared the sum of their WAR from the subsequent 3 seasons.
...Similarly, Orlando Cepeda at #3 was hit hard with three years riddled with knee injuries at the ages of 27-29, amassing just -.3, .3, and 2.3 WAR in those seasons. He did manage to bounce back at the age of 29 with a strong 6.6 WAR, earning himself the MVP award which may have been the deciding factor in the Veteran’s Committee’s decision to elect Cepeda to the Hall of Fame in 1999.
That leaves David Wright with the third most disappointing prime which was not attributable to a significant loss of playing time—although injury is almost certain to have had an effect. Wright suffered a concussion in mid-August of the 2009 season which likely played a significant role in holding his WAR totals to just 2.9, 2.5, 1.9 through ages 26-28. Like Cepeda, however, he is currently rebounding as a 29 year-old to the tune of a 5.5 WAR in 2012.
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1. bobm Posted: August 02, 2012 at 10:26 AM (#4198779)I'd say it did occur for Cedeno. His age 29 season was a 147 OPS+ in 596 PA, good for 4.8 WAR. It was certainly a disappointment but he was a slightly above-average player from ages 27 on with that one excellent year. But that's a nitpick at best.
Rk Player WAR From To Age G GS IP1 Denny McLain -1.8 1970 1972 26-28 67 59 384.1
2 Dontrelle Willis -1.5 2008 2010 26-28 30 27 123.1
Crash, meet burn.
And both Tigers, too!
through age 26: 19.4
age 27-29: -1.1
Rk Player WAR/pos From To Age G PA WAR/PA 2 Grady Sizemore 1.5 2009 2011 26-28 210 938 0.0016 3 Hanley Ramirez 3.3 2010 2012 26-28 335 1435 0.0023 5 Freddie Lindstrom 5.1 1932 1934 26-28 379 1639 0.0031 8 Willie Davis 6.6 1966 1968 26-28 456 1949 0.0034 7 Stuffy McInnis 6.5 1917 1919 26-28 388 1596 0.0041 9 David Wright 7.3 2009 2011 26-28 403 1735 0.0042 4 Ryan Zimmerman 3.8 2011 2012 26-27 189 830 0.0046 17 Harlond Clift 9.4 1939 1941 26-28 455 1986 0.0047 14 Ross Youngs 9 1923 1925 26-28 415 1885 0.0048 20 Donie Bush 10 1914 1916 26-28 457 2077 0.0048 19 Ryne Sandberg 9.8 1986 1988 26-28 441 1948 0.0050 18 Ben Chapman 9.8 1935 1937 26-28 421 1901 0.0052 23 Vada Pinson 11.1 1965 1967 26-28 473 2081 0.0053 13 Sherry Magee 8.6 1911 1913 26-28 391 1607 0.0054 10 Willie Randolph 8.3 1981 1983 26-28 341 1542 0.0054 16 Roberto Alomar 9.4 1994 1996 26-28 390 1731 0.0054 6 Orlando Cepeda 6.5 1964 1966 26-28 317 1191 0.0055 15 Dick Allen 9.1 1968 1970 26-28 392 1644 0.0055 24 Johnny Callison 11.1 1965 1967 26-28 464 1988 0.0056 25 Adrian Beltre 11.4 2005 2007 26-28 461 1970 0.0058 21 Joe Torre 10 1967 1969 26-28 409 1676 0.0060 28 Derek Jeter 12.8 2000 2002 26-28 455 2095 0.0061 26 Will Clark 11.8 1990 1992 26-28 446 1901 0.0062 11 Cesar Cedeno 8.6 1977 1979 26-28 323 1356 0.0063 27 Joe Medwick 12.3 1938 1940 26-28 439 1917 0.0064 37 Cal Ripken 14.8 1987 1989 26-28 485 2118 0.0070 34 Andruw Jones 14 2003 2005 26-28 470 1977 0.0071 30 Sam Crawford 13.6 1906 1908 26-28 441 1896 0.0072 31 Joe Cronin 13.8 1933 1935 26-28 423 1895 0.0073 29 Ted Simmons 13.6 1976 1978 26-28 452 1830 0.0074 40 Jim Fregosi 15.4 1968 1970 26-28 478 2059 0.0075 41 Alan Trammell 15.5 1984 1986 26-28 439 1957 0.0079 44 Bobby Bonds 16.9 1972 1974 26-28 463 2105 0.0080 36 Goose Goslin 14.7 1927 1929 26-28 428 1829 0.0080 32 Joe Jackson 14 1914 1916 26-28 405 1701 0.0082 22 Travis Jackson 10.6 1930 1932 26-28 313 1286 0.0082 39 Tim Raines 15.3 1986 1988 26-28 399 1779 0.0086 38 Lou Boudreau 14.9 1944 1946 26-28 387 1654 0.0090 42 Frank Thomas 16.5 1994 1996 26-28 399 1813 0.0091 1 Evan Longoria 0.9 2012 2012 26-26 23 97 0.0093 33 Bobby Grich 14 1975 1977 26-28 346 1495 0.0094 50 Arky Vaughan 19.4 1938 1940 26-28 456 2032 0.0095 46 Frankie Frisch 17.6 1925 1927 26-28 408 1824 0.0096 49 Johnny Bench 18.6 1974 1976 26-28 437 1866 0.0100 48 Reggie Jackson 18.1 1972 1974 26-28 434 1806 0.0100 45 Al Kaline 17.6 1961 1963 26-28 398 1733 0.0102 53 Mel Ott 20.5 1935 1937 26-28 453 1997 0.0103 43 Ivan Rodriguez 16.8 1998 2000 26-28 380 1636 0.0103 51 Frank Robinson 20.3 1962 1964 26-28 458 1944 0.0104 12 Charlie Keller 8.6 1943 1945 26-28 185 814 0.0106 57 Eddie Mathews 21.2 1958 1960 26-28 450 2002 0.0106 47 Gary Carter 18.1 1980 1982 26-28 408 1689 0.0107 55 Mickey Mantle 20.9 1958 1960 26-28 447 1937 0.0108 35 Joe DiMaggio 14.3 1941 1942 26-27 293 1302 0.0110 60 Robin Yount 23.1 1982 1984 26-28 465 2068 0.0112 59 Jimmie Foxx 22.4 1934 1936 26-28 452 1994 0.0112 62 Alex Rodriguez 24.1 2002 2004 26-28 478 2138 0.0113 54 Rickey Henderson 20.6 1985 1987 26-28 391 1795 0.0115 61 Stan Musial 24.1 1947 1949 26-28 461 2098 0.0115 67 Lou Gehrig 25 1929 1931 26-28 463 2135 0.0117 64 Ken Griffey 24.7 1996 1998 26-28 458 2062 0.0120 63 Ron Santo 24.6 1966 1968 26-28 478 2051 0.0120 66 Hank Aaron 24.9 1960 1962 26-28 464 2002 0.0124 65 Tris Speaker 24.7 1914 1916 26-28 459 1967 0.0126 68 Willie Mays 25.4 1957 1959 26-28 455 2003 0.0127 56 George Brett 20.9 1979 1981 26-28 360 1595 0.0131 69 Albert Pujols 25.8 2006 2008 26-28 449 1954 0.0132 71 Eddie Collins 26.5 1913 1915 26-28 455 1989 0.0133 58 Ty Cobb 21.6 1913 1915 26-28 376 1615 0.0134 70 Barry Bonds 26.2 1991 1993 26-28 452 1920 0.0136 52 Ted Williams 20.3 1946 1947 27-28 306 1364 0.0149 72 Rogers Hornsby 28.7 1922 1924 26-28 404 1833 0.0157 73 Babe Ruth 32.3 1921 1923 26-28 414 1886 0.0171I get why you would do this, but if Longoria's age 26-28 seasons are marred by injury, they surely would be considered a huge disappointment.
WAR/years would be better. Longoria is still only 26, so he's only had one of the three possible seasons to accrue value.
17 certainly never lived up to its potential
Hanley hasn't been hurt, I don't think, but otherwise I see some parallels between his career to this point and Lindstrom's, especially if (as I assume from the evidence) Lindstrom was in fact moved because he was defensively challenged at his primary position.
-- MWE
My personal experience with 23 has been very good, every since I noticed that the large wheel of chance at the St. Bernard's School Christmas fair in 1967 was biased toward 23. I picked up Hello Goodbye, Expressway to Your Heart and People Are Strange. When a number is good to you, you have to have its back in public forums.
Well... of course, and at that point he would belong on the list. How is a future possibility an objection to the way he made the list at this point?
Hanley Ramirez and the Disappointing Primes, Hanley Ramirez and the Uncertain Moose, Hanley Ramirez and the Cyclopean Masonry ...
I have a couple of LPs by those guys, I'm pretty sure.
You should really take out Zimmerman then too.
Middle infielders seem to have a tendency to peak early and fall off a cliff pretty quickly. Hanley (although the book isn't closed on him yet), the aforementioned Baerga...Edgardo Alfonzo had 28 WAR through age 28 and -1.5 thereafter. Maybe I just notice it more at the middle infield positions but I thought I one read a study to that effect.
Hanley's age 26 season (2010) was a bit of a disappointment but I don't think it was a big one, in part because a large part of the dropoff was his negative defensive value and most people don't put much faith in single-season defensive WAR. His .300/21/76 slash line with a 126 OPS+ was still pretty damn good for a shortstop, and I am pretty sure he was still a consensus #2 or 3 fantasy baseball pick going into 2011. It was the following season where he really dropped off.
Dividing by PA boosts players with very few PA, but the lack of PA itself is a problem.
Neither way is great. The original way penalizes Longoria too much; the revised way is a bit too lenient.
b-r ages 26-28: 3.5 WAR, .5 WAR 2011-12
fan ages 26-28: 7.5 WAR, 2.9 WAR 2011-12 (in 816 PA makes him a bit above-average)
And it's not just defense (first is b-r):
bat 18 28
base 6 5
def -43 -20
pos 11 11
rep 40 48
41 is an awesome prime. It's got the n^2+n+41 is prime from 0 to 39 thing going for it (which has some fairly deep math going on behind it).
Yeah, that movie stunk.
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