Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, December 03, 2012

BtBS: Roegele: A Comparison of Three Potential Indicators of Power

When a player has a breakout home run season at the plate, everyone is interested in analyzing whether the new found power can be sustained into the following season. Likewise, as a player ages, if home run totals drop for a season we sometimes wonder whether his power is truly diminishing or whether to expect a one year valley.

Some metrics that are available that I have both seen used by others and used myself in an effort to form a logical analysis of the potential power of a player include average home run distance as well as average home run plus fly ball distance. It would make sense to me that a player that hits the ball farther, on average, would possess more power and hence could be expected to produce more offensive “power” in the near future. I have never actually seen a study that has tried to investigate just how useful these logical indicators are in actually describing or predicting power.

This study will look at three potential predictors for two outcomes that describe power: HR and ISO. The three predictors are the two mentioned above as well as maximum home run distance. Given that the data involved for this study had to be merged from three sources, I have only examined 2011 and 2012 in this study.

Thanks to FH.

Repoz Posted: December 03, 2012 at 06:29 AM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Walt Davis Posted: December 03, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4315341)
The regression predicting 2012 HR needs 2011 HR as an independent variable ... although I'd have thought it rather obvious you need HR/PA not raw HR to adjust for playing time changes. All of that before you get into minor-league stats, etc. Anyway, the baseline for any such analysis has to be "does this indicator add anything over the previous X seasons' performance?" Think of y_t regressed on y_(t-1) as the Marcel equivalent and then see if you can add anything that substantially improves on Marcel.

As to HR max distance ... guys who hit more HR by definition are "sampling" more from the HR distance distribution. That is a guy who hits 40 HR is more likely have hit one of 425 feet than a guy who hits 3 even if they have the same "power".
   2. dr. scott Posted: December 03, 2012 at 02:34 PM (#4315390)
Isn't home run distance one of the least accurate stats, or are people actually calculating them correctly now? For instance, if a ball hits the foot of the wall, or the top of the wall I thought they say the ball went the same distance even though obviously if the wall was not there, one of them would have gone farther. If the stat tracked where the ball would have landed if the wall or stands were not there, it may have more predictive power.
   3. Toolsy McClutch Posted: December 03, 2012 at 03:34 PM (#4315497)
I don't believe that's correct Scott.
   4. jroegeleBTBS Posted: December 03, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4315533)
@dr. scott - This is how the home run distances that were used in the study are calculated.

@Walt Davis - Thanks a lot for the feedback, I appreciate it. I did realize that HR/PA would be a better metric to get around injuries/playing time differences (and mentioned this in the comments afterward). When I follow up on this I plan to look at HR/PA. As far as whether it can be useful or not, I will look at a multiple regression of Year N HR/PA and Year N Max HR Distance against Year N+1 HR/PA and see if the Max HR Distance is a significant factor or not. I may still look at raw HR numbers as well out of curiosity. Your sampling point is interesting and well made also. I'll see how this ends up looking in a follow-up study.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
dirk
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogBoston.com: Youk Retires
(1 - 8:16am, Oct 31)
Last: Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

NewsblogFielding Bible
(3 - 8:07am, Oct 31)
Last: Harveys Wallbangers

NewsblogNo, Alex Gordon wouldn't have scored an inside the park home run
(137 - 7:43am, Oct 31)
Last: Brian White

NewsblogAngell: The Best
(19 - 7:29am, Oct 31)
Last: Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip

NewsblogOT: Politics, October 2014: Sunshine, Baseball, and Etch A Sketch: How Politicians Use Analogies
(4786 - 7:22am, Oct 31)
Last: Bitter Mouse

NewsblogThe Players' Tribune: Jeter: The Clean Up
(3 - 6:56am, Oct 31)
Last: villageidiom

NewsblogFull Count » Red Sox sign Koji Uehara to 2-year contract
(11 - 6:56am, Oct 31)
Last: Darren

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - October 2014
(631 - 6:39am, Oct 31)
Last: Norcan

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1960 Discussion
(10 - 6:15am, Oct 31)
Last: AndrewJ

NewsblogSend Alex Gordon! | FiveThirtyEight
(83 - 4:02am, Oct 31)
Last: Maxwn

NewsblogNewest Hall of Fame Candidates Announced
(52 - 2:35am, Oct 31)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogOT: NBC.news: Valve isn’t making one gaming console, but multiple ‘Steam machines’
(1021 - 1:53am, Oct 31)
Last: The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott)

NewsblogJoe Maddon is to become Cubs manager, sources say
(108 - 1:49am, Oct 31)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogThings we learned from the 2014 playoffs
(11 - 12:17am, Oct 31)
Last: bobm

NewsblogMadison Bumgarner, World Series legend - McCovey Chronicles
(103 - 12:15am, Oct 31)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

Page rendered in 0.1953 seconds
52 querie(s) executed