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Tuesday, November 22, 2011

BTiA: Evan Grant: Wrong By Any Measure

Mor on, the Evan Grant MVP ballot.

Evan’s ballot, however, is not a disagreement between traditional statistics and advanced statistics. This is a question of credibility and whether Evan Grant has any after this absurd vote.

At best, this vote is disingenuous. I simply cannot believe that Evan Grant truly felt that Michael Young was the most valuable player in the American League this year.

... If Evan Grant decided that he wanted to use the ‘eye test’ to determine his MVP, then he needs to at the very least take into account the fact that he watches one team far more than any other. Voting for Michael Young for the reasons that he listed completely ignores whether anybody else could have met these (strange) criteria. If everybody voted according to Evan Grant’s guidelines, then every year, the MVP would go to the most media-friendly player in the market that harbored the most members of the BBWAA.

...How did Evan Grant miss the boat so badly that he cannot even identify the most valuable player on the team that he covers? Again, even by traditional measures, Young’s .338 average is less valuable in light of his paltry 11 home runs and visibly/measured poor defense, especially when one considers the three 30-homer players who all played excellent defense. This is not a WAR-based argument, where the selection of Young looks many times more absurd. Evan Grant is embarrassing himself amongst national baseball writers who seemingly have as much of a distaste as he does for FanGraphs.com.

Repoz Posted: November 22, 2011 at 02:41 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: awards, rangers, sabermetrics

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   1. JJ1986 Posted: November 22, 2011 at 04:21 PM (#3999450)
I have a pretty strong distaste for Fangraphs too. I don't think that's a mark against someone.
   2. Rough Carrigan Posted: November 22, 2011 at 04:33 PM (#3999466)
This is the same guy who in 2008 didn't include Dustin Pedroia on his ballot because he said he simply forgot about the eventual MVP winner.

Yank this dope's privilege.
   3. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 22, 2011 at 05:16 PM (#3999517)
Evan Grant also votes for Rafael Palmeiro for the Hall of Fame, but not Mark McGwire. Grant makes a strong case, though:

"[McGwire's] season home run record didn't last five years. The season home run record set by Roger Maris in 1961 lasted nearly 40 years but wasn't enough to get him into the Hall.

McGwire hit more than 40 percent of his homers in the four full seasons (1996-99) that followed the players strike. That is widely viewed as the Golden Age of 'Roids.

...[With Palmeiro], there was never that out-of-kilter, late-in-his-career power spike that might more clearly associate him with steroid use. ... It suggests either the steroid use was a desperate late-in-life attempt to revive his career, or it was, as Palmeiro has maintained, the result of getting the unluckiest B-12 shot in the history of vitamins. Either way, it didn't measurably impact his performance on the field."


Grant's 2011 ballot did not include Jeff Bagwell.

Grant in 2009, referring to his ballot omission of Pedroia in '08:
"I am voting on the AL Rookie of the Year. And here this Boston, Oakland and all other destinations: I’m planning on voting for Elvis Andrus, a Ranger, first. So deal with it." (Andrus finished second to Oakland's Andrew Bailey.)

Grant's 2006 MVP ballot was sensible enough: his first through ninth picks finished 7th (Johan Santana), 2nd, 1st, 5th, 4th, 3rd, 6th, 9th, and 11th. Then, in his tenth slot, Grant's was the only ballot to include... Michael Young.
   4. OCD SS Posted: November 22, 2011 at 05:17 PM (#3999518)
Does anyone happen to remember where he put Kinsler on his ballot in 2008? I think this is a pretty clear-cut example of favoritism that goes beyond what other writers happen to do as well...
   5. Rally Posted: November 22, 2011 at 05:54 PM (#3999538)
...[With Palmeiro], there was never that out-of-kilter, late-in-his-career power spike that might more clearly associate him with steroid use. ... It suggests either the steroid use was a desperate late-in-life attempt to revive his career, or it was, as Palmeiro has maintained, the result of getting the unluckiest B-12 shot in the history of vitamins. Either way, it didn't measurably impact his performance on the field."


Or that he started using steroids in say, 1990-1993, when his homers increased in this pattern: 8-14-26-37, and then he kept using until he got caught. The honest answer is that he has no idea how much steroid use helped Palmeiro or McGwire, and the quoted "reasoning" is pathetic rationalization.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: November 22, 2011 at 05:58 PM (#3999540)
the MVP would go to the most media-friendly player in the market that harbored the most members of the BBWAA.

Nitpick: Each market* gets only 2 MVP votes so it doesn't matter how many BBWAA members there are. The proposed scenario would result in a 14/16-way tie, assuming the two voters in each market can agree.

* I have no idea what "market" the internet boobies are from so maybe that should be a max of 2 MVP votes.
   7. JJ1986 Posted: November 22, 2011 at 06:05 PM (#3999543)
* I have no idea what "market" the internet boobies are from


Have they been asked to vote again after the Javier Vazquez thing?
   8. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 22, 2011 at 06:17 PM (#3999548)
#5:
Or that he started using steroids in say, 1990-1993, when his homers increased in this pattern: 8-14-26-37, and then he kept using until he got caught.

What part of "1996-99: Widely viewed as the Golden Age of 'Roids" don't you get? The man's premise is airtight.
   9. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 22, 2011 at 06:19 PM (#3999549)
Does anyone happen to remember where he put Kinsler on his ballot in 2008?

Here is Grant's 10-person ballot for the 2008 MVP:

Kevin Youkilis
Francisco Rodriguez
Justin Morneau
Josh Hamilton
Carlos Quentin
Alex Rodriguez
Cliff Lee
Joe Mauer
Grady Sizemore
Carlos Pena
   10. SoSH U at work Posted: November 22, 2011 at 06:28 PM (#3999558)
* I have no idea what "market" the internet boobies are from so maybe that should be a max of 2 MVP votes.


I think they vote in those markets that don't have enough willing or able voters to cover all of the BBWAA awards.

Have they been asked to vote again after the Javier Vazquez thing?


Law voted on this year's Cy. He was one of four voters to earn Hero status from Rob Neyer for choosing one virtually indistinguishable candidate (Doc) over another (Kershaw).
   11. bigglou115 is not an Illuminati agent Posted: November 22, 2011 at 07:06 PM (#3999600)
I have a pretty strong distaste for Fangraphs too. I don't think that's a mark against someone.


That wasn't his point. His point was that Grant sees himself as part of the 'anti-sabr' crowed, but this ballot was bad by their standards as well as the numbers crowd.
   12. Halofan Posted: November 23, 2011 at 03:02 AM (#3999931)
It is because so many Texans make wild generalizations about Californians that they hire stupid sportswriters.
   13. cardsfanboy Posted: November 24, 2011 at 08:04 AM (#4000588)
How did Evan Grant miss the boat so badly that he cannot even identify the most valuable player on the team that he covers? Again, even by traditional measures, Young’s .338 average is less valuable in light of his paltry 11 home runs and visibly/measured poor defense, especially when one considers the three 30-homer players who all played excellent defense. This is not a WAR-based argument, where the selection of Young looks many times more absurd. Evan Grant is embarrassing himself amongst national baseball writers who seemingly have as much of a distaste as he does for FanGraphs.com.


Simple thing games played Young 159...other candidates Napoli(a catcher, so this is ok) 113, Hamilton 121, Beltre 124 quick look at the Rangers roster, and I think you are an idiot if you don't think Young is the most valuable position player on the team. Only Napoli is even remotely in the question. I'm sorry, but a position player who doesn't play at least 150 games needs to have a massive year to really be in the mvp discussion, even on his own team. (except catchers of course)
   14. cardsfanboy Posted: November 24, 2011 at 08:06 AM (#4000589)
Law voted on this year's Cy. He was one of four voters to earn Hero status from Rob Neyer for choosing one virtually indistinguishable candidate (Doc) over another (Kershaw).


So once again Law proves his rigidity and misses the boat on his votes.. To think I was happy that there was a smart person finally in the BBWAA, and yet he's been clearly wrong on both of his votes so far. (at least this year wasn't so bad as the stupid Vazquez thing, but c'mon if you pull fips out in a discussion about an award, you really should get the heck out of your basement)
   15. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 24, 2011 at 10:40 AM (#4000595)
Simple thing games played Young 159...other candidates Napoli(a catcher, so this is ok) 113, Hamilton 121, Beltre 124 quick look at the Rangers roster, and I think you are an idiot if you don't think Young is the most valuable position player on the team. Only Napoli is even remotely in the question. I'm sorry, but a position player who doesn't play at least 150 games needs to have a massive year to really be in the mvp discussion, even on his own team. (except catchers of course)


Sure, playing time matters, in most cases the most valuable player on a team will have played a fair amount of games. But it's not a be-all end-all kind of thing either, I'll take an elite 120-130 games over an average 150-160, and it's not all that close.

But even assuming you install some bizarre sub-150 games automatic disqualifier*, you still land on Kinsler (155 games; 34 more PAs than Young similar offense, better position, better defense), before you land on Young.

*I take it this rules out CJ and the asorted list of other SP's who were more valuable than Young too

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