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Monday, June 08, 2009

Bucs Dugout: Why Hasn’t Trading Their Best Hitters Caused the Pirates to Lose More?

You mean it’s not the LaRoche’s twin OPS+ of 116?

The Pirates’ trades of Jason Bay, Xavier Nady and Nate McLouth were rebuilding deals. But that doesn’t mean the next couple of years have to be that much more painful than they otherwise would have been. The Pirates’ defense with Bay, Nady and McLouth in the outfield was a disaster. Without Bay and Nady it’s become far better, and the improvements are likely to continue now that the Bucs have replaced McLouth with Andrew McCutchen. These changes offset most of the losses the Pirates took on offense, which is one reason why the Pirates’ 2009 W-L record is practically identical to their 2008 W-L record before the Bay and Nady trades. So even though the Pirates got back prospects in these deals, they may not have made their 2009 team that much worse.

...But perhaps the main reason the Pirates haven’t gotten worse is that they’ve changed from a poor defensive team to a very good one, especially in the outfield. The fundamental complexion of the team is different. This isn’t a change that’s particularly easy for fans to see, which is one reason there continues to be lingering anger about the trades. The Pirates’ old outfielders were active impediments to the Pirates’ pitching staff, because they just didn’t get the job done in the field. Now they have outfielders who do.

Repoz Posted: June 08, 2009 at 10:07 AM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: pirates, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. jyjjy Posted: June 08, 2009 at 11:24 AM (#3209890)
The Pirates actually have an exactly even run differential this year so far.
   2. AROM Posted: June 08, 2009 at 11:51 AM (#3209898)
It's not like they were any good with those hitters. Reminds me of the saying "we could have finished last without you". But the D is much improved.
   3. McCoy Posted: June 08, 2009 at 12:55 PM (#3209915)
Bay: .291/.411/.543
Nady: .327/.386/.543

The entire team: .260/.329/.410

This year: .267/.333/.396

By game 56 they were 26-30 with 280 runs scored and 307 allowed. This year they are 26-30 with 247 runs scored and 247 allowed. Was Nady and Bay in the outfield really worth 60 runs allowed and 33 runs scored?

I kind of doubt it. The biggest difference between the two years is the big runs allowed games. This year the Bucs have only had 5 games in which they surrendered 9 runs or more. LAst year they had more than that before April even ended. They had 11 by their 56th game.
   4. Crispix Attacks Posted: June 08, 2009 at 01:21 PM (#3209926)
Guys like John VanBenschoten, Yoslan Herrera, Denny Bautista, Jimmy Barthmaier, Francquelis Osoria, the corpse of Matt Morris, and the premature corpse of Tom Gorzelanny wouldn't have good stats with a defense of three Endy Chavezes, three Ozzie Smiths, and Keith Hernandez.

Pirates 2008

The Pirates used 26 pitchers last year and 19/26 of them had a season WHIP of 1.50 or more.

For the Brewers that number is 7 out of 20.
For the Astros it's 8 out of 20.
For the Reds it's 13 out of 23.
For the Cardinals it's 8 out of 24.
For the Cubs it's 6 out of 23, and none of the 6 threw more than 28 innings.

Whereas the Pirates rotation, as a whole, went 33-67 with a WHIP of 1.621.
And an ERA of 5.36.
And gave up a batting line of .300/.368/.473.
Against the average member of the Pirates rotation, the average hitter hit like Derrek Lee or Nate McLouth. And that "average hitter" includes pitchers.

Just imagine what those stats would have been like without Paul Maholm.

Karstens and Ohlendorf are a vast improvement.
   5. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 08, 2009 at 01:53 PM (#3209947)
Some of it is the better pitchers acquired in the Bay/Nady trades, and some of it is the big defensive upgrades from the Bay/Nady trades (don't overlook the importance of swapping out Bautista for LaRoche).

Either way, the change is a welcome one.
   6. AROM Posted: June 08, 2009 at 01:57 PM (#3209949)
Pirates are dead last in pitcher strikeouts. A big part, though not all, of the pitcher improvement is fielders catching the balls behind them.

Defensive efficiency: .709 (last year .675). Over 1532 balls in play (BFP-HR-SO-BB-HBP) that's 52 plays, or about 40 runs.

Hurray for Simple Fielding Runs!
   7. McCoy Posted: June 08, 2009 at 03:30 PM (#3210035)
Well, I would say a big part of the pitchers improvement comes from the fact that they are not giving up as many hard hit balls. Yes, we can say the fielders are catching more balls but it isn't merely because they have better fielders. They also have better pitchers that are inducing slightly more grounders and flyballs and conversely giving up less line drives. So basically the Bucs' pitchers are giving up 12% less line drives so far this year when compared to last year.
   8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 08, 2009 at 08:30 PM (#3210354)
"So basically the Bucs' pitchers are giving up 12% less line drives so far this year when compared to last year."

Which in turn comes back to not having to use Herrera, Morris, et al.

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