Unfortunately for Cahill, there's no award for "best pitcher since the beginning of May".

Guess who, since May 1st:

23 GS, 168 IP, 160 K, 2.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .225 BAA, 8 W

King Felix?

Cliff Lee?

Cahill isn't really a Cy Young candidate, but he's having a hell of a season. Gio Gonzalez has become really good but he's flying completely under the radar.

[3] Ayep.

Just for giggles, from the same time period last year (including an 8/30 start), Mr. Grienke:

22 GS, 154.1 IP, 158 K, 2.74 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .243 BAA, 8 W

Speaking of Gio...

If we're playing the "holy crap, ____ has been great since the beginning of ___" game, I nominate "Max Scherzer" and "June".

It's a shame the A's are wasting an incredible year from their starters. They'll hopefully be good next year, too, but this is incredible. I know this is a flawed way to look at it, but the following gives you a what-if flavor of these guys were pitching together all year.



That's a total of 13.1 rWAR (based on runs allowed) 14.7 fWAR (based on FIP). A rotation that is 13-15 WAR is pretty damn good.

I wouldn't worry too much. Braden's the oldest of them at 27, and only Anderson has even reached arb status yet and he's already locked up to an extremely team-friendly contract through at least 2013 (options for '14 and '15). Those guys and the bullpen and Suzuki and replacement level surrounding them will get a team to about .500 (as we're basically seeing right now). Just gotta take the next step.

It's a shame the A's are wasting an incredible year from their starters

The other way to look at it is how well they're playing for a team whose offense would be subpar in some AAA leagues.

Ooh, Cahill is throwing against the Spankees tonight. It might be a bar night for Shooty!

I agree he's not really a legit candidate for the award, but he's obviously legit to make a ballot, say at #5ish. How about Hernandez? I think right now he get's my vote, 10-10 or not.

I agree he's not really a legit candidate for the award, but he's obviously legit to make a ballot, say at #5ish. How about Hernandez? I think right now he get's my vote, 10-10 or not.

He looks the best, I think. With all this talk about Cahill, I actually think Buchholz is a better choice. It's a tough vote, but I think my ballot would be

1. Felix
2. Buchholz
3. Weaver

say at #5ish. How about Hernandez?

David Cameron says Felix should be #6ish.

Cahill’s not necessarily a strikeout pitcher, but he’s second in the league in ERA at 2.43 and first in opponents’ batting average at .201.

I don't want to bring the wrath of the anti-DIPS fanatics upon my head, but wow has the BABIp fairy been kind to Cahill this year.

2000-2010, 10 best years by BABIP (120+ IP)


2000-2010, 600+ Ip:


I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that .215 is NOT sustainable.
Pretty much anything outside .270-.330 is unsustainable.

That being said:
1: Based upon his minor league record and MLB record to date- he very well be one whose true talent BABIP is at the .270ish low end

2: Based upon his minor league track record you would expect him to have a significantly higher K rate

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that .215 is NOT sustainable.
Pretty much anything outside .270-.330 is unsustainable.

That being said:
1: Based upon his minor league record and MLB record to date- he very well be one whose true talent BABIP is at the .270ish low end

2: Based upon his minor league track record you would expect him to have a significantly higher K rate

I think we need to recognize a continuum between weak contact and 3rd strikes. Great pitches that turn into weak contact are the same ones that generate swinging or looking strikeouts.

If Cahill has great stuff, his weak contact may turn into K's next year, rather than hard contact, and he could be as good or almost as good with a significantly higher BABIP.

If Cahill has great stuff, his weak contact may turn into K's next year, rather than hard contact, and he could be as good or almost as good with a significantly higher BABIP.

You'll find out tonight what kind of stuff he has. They're gonna need a NNYS when Cahill bring his bulldozer tonight. GRRRRRR!!!!!

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that .215 is NOT sustainable.
Pretty much anything outside .270-.330 is unsustainable.

That being said:
1: Based upon his minor league record and MLB record to date- he very well be one whose true talent BABIP is at the .270ish low end

2: Based upon his minor league track record you would expect him to have a significantly higher K rate

Also, playing in front of this A's defense likely helps. The A's are .019 better than the average AL team in defensive efficiency this year. How much of that is due to the pitchers, how much to the fielders, and how much to luck I will not attempt to say.

You'll find out tonight what kind of stuff he has. They're gonna need a NNYS when Cahill bring his bulldozer tonight. GRRRRRR!!!!!

I'm predicting 3 K's, 1 BB, -1 R (0 ER), and eleventy million groundballs to Mark Ellis. Go Trevor, the Silent Assassin!

I'm predicting 3 K's, 1 BB, -1 R (0 ER)

But do you think the A's will win?

If Cahill has great stuff, his weak contact may turn into K's next year, rather than hard contact, and he could be as good or almost as good with a significantly higher BABIP.

This is potentially a really good point. Has this been studied (whether low BABIP one year portends a higher K rate the next year)?

But do you think the A's will win?
What? No.

guess who, since may 1:

19 GS, 122 IP, 79 K, 2.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .218 BAA, 13 W

and i'm sure the era+ would be through the roof

guess who, since may 1:

19 GS, 122 IP, 79 K, 2.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .218 BAA, 13 W

Ian Snell?

Arroyo?

This is potentially a really good point. Has this been studied (whether low BABIP one year portends a higher K rate the next year)?

I have no idea, but I've read enough of these studies to say with 100% confidence that the conclusion to such a study would be: "It appears there is a real but weak correlation which cannot be considered statistically significant over the course of 200 innings." It would indicate that a pitcher such as Cahill could expect an increase of about 0.08 K/9 next year.

guess who, since may 1:

20 GS, 12-3, 129.1 IP, 137 K, 36 BB, 1.67 ERA, .175 BAA

answer: matt "mat" latos

I've heard plenty of Felix-for-Cy-Young talk here in Seattle, but there just ain't no way it is going to happen with these voters.

My guess is that we'll see them finish something like this:

Buchholtz
CC
Felix
Lee
a few more guys - say, Price, Lester, Pavano
Cahill

However, the next 5 weeks could change things.

I've heard plenty of Felix-for-Cy-Young talk here in Seattle, but there just ain't no way it is going to happen with these voters.

My guess is that we'll see them finish something like this:

Buchholtz
CC
Felix
Lee
a few more guys - say, Price, Lester, Pavano
Cahill

However, the next 5 weeks could change things.

If CC can put up 22 or so, I can't see him not getting it.

I can see CC not getting it. I can see Felix getting it, or Buccholz, if he keeps the ERA lead. Or Price. Or CC.

[23] Dear Clay Buccholz: strike out a hitter already.

Cahill benefits from being a GB pitcher playing in front of an excellent infield defense in a home park that suppresses BABIP. Still, he's generating far more outs on GBs than his teammates, who have the same advantages.

AL pitchers have allowed a .229 BABIP on GBs this year. Non-Cahill A's pitchers have allowed a .208 BABIP on GBs, while Cahill is at .127. That means the non-Cahill A's pitchers have allowed 27 fewer hits on GBs than they would have with a league average BABIP on GBs. Cahill, by himself, has allowed 26 fewer GB hits than he would have with a league-average BABIP on GBs.

According to UZR, the A's infielders have been 31 runs better than average this year. IIRC, UZR doesn't include infield popups or IF line drives, That would mean the 31 runs above average is all from GBs. Those 31 runs above average by the infield defense accounts for the 53 fewer hits on GBs the A's have allowed as a team (IIRC, an extra GB out is worth about half a run).

Cahill accounts for just 17% of the A's total GBs this year, but he represents 49% of the A's hits-saved on GBs. Either the A's infielders are playing far better behind Cahill than they are behind other pitchers, or Cahill is inducing much more easily fieldable GBs than the other A's pitchers. It's very likely some of both.

I'm pretty sure if the season ended today, CC would get it. Wins aren't the be-all, end-all for voters anymore, but he's up by 3 in the category and his ERA is still quite good. Buchholz would be second. Felix wouldn't appear on many ballots.

[23] Dear Clay Buccholz: strike out a hitter already.

I know it's common for fans of low-K pitchers to say this, but Buchholz induces a LOT of weak contact. His stuff is very good, it's just not quite getting the K's right now.

Who's better, Cahill or Buckkholz? Who will be better next year and why?

I can't speak about Cahill, I haven't seen enough of him. Barring injury, Buchholz will be a 1-2 starter for years to come, and everyone will eventually spell his name correctly.

According to UZR, the A's infielders have been 31 runs better than average this year. IIRC, UZR doesn't include infield popups or IF line drives, That would mean the 31 runs above average is all from GBs. Those 31 runs above average by the infield defense accounts for the 53 fewer hits on GBs the A's have allowed as a team (IIRC, an extra GB out is worth about half a run).

So, if we were to use this measure, and roughly state that 6-7 of those runs were saved for Cahill. If we furthermore assume that those 6-7 runs would equal 15 hits saved, that would still only put his BABiP at .239. So even if we give the defense full credit, and that credit would continue next year, don't we have to think that he's still a bit over his head?

9 hits, 8 runs, 4 innings. Welcome back to reality.

So I hope this wasn't a bar night for Shooty. Because I'm at the game and #37 is right.

Well the Yankees lineup is doing their best to help out CC's case....

I've heard plenty of Felix-for-Cy-Young talk here in Seattle, but there just ain't no way it is going to happen with these voters.

Last year Greinke won the award with a much worse W-L record than Felix. So I wouldn't dismiss the voters so quickly.

Last year Greinke won the award with a much worse W-L record than Felix.

Greinke was 16-8 last year. Hernandez is 10-10 this year.

Gio Gonzalez has become really good

Gio has a knee-buckling curve but can't find the strikezone.

Gonzalez seem to me to be showing a lot of signs of having Figured Something Out: he's walking guys a lot less than ever before, and he's missing a lot of bats while he does it (top 5 in the league in hits/9 and HR/9).
One of FIVE reasons I'm already looking forward to 2011... praying the A's get some hitting in the meantime.

EDIT: I'd probably vote Hernandez / Weaver / Cahill.

Dang, that sucked. Get 'em next time, Trevor!

So, if we were to use this measure, and roughly state that 6-7 of those runs were saved for Cahill. If we furthermore assume that those 6-7 runs would equal 15 hits saved, that would still only put his BABiP at .239. So even if we give the defense full credit, and that credit would continue next year, don't we have to think that he's still a bit over his head?

He's way over his head regardless of how one credits his 2010 BABIP goodness. He's either receiving far better fielding support than any pitcher can expect, or he's inducing far more weak contact that any pitcher can expect. It's likely both. Either way, his BABIP should be expected to be pretty close to the A's team BABIP next year (probably around .290).

My post wasn't about whether he can keep it up; it was just trying to approach the question of how much his 2010 BABIP is attributable to park/defense.