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Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Calcaterra - Adrián Beltré Retires, is a Slam Dunk Hall of Famer

Rangers third baseman Adrián Beltré officially announced his retirement on Tuesday, ending months of speculation about his future. The 39-year-old put together one of the greatest careers we have ever seen, spending time with the Dodgers, Mariners, Red Sox, and Rangers across 21 seasons.

Beltré will be eligible for the Hall of Fame five years from now. Given how much more analytically-literate the electorate has become in recent years, Beltré will very likely get the requisite 75 percent of the vote to earn enshrinement in Cooperstown. In a just world, he would get 100 percent of the vote, but no player has ever gone into the Hall of Fame unanimously.

Bote Man Posted: November 20, 2018 at 12:22 PM | 53 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: adrian beltre, hall of fame, retirements

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   1. Bote Man Posted: November 20, 2018 at 12:24 PM (#5789664)
dan haren @ithrow88
Replying to @JeffPassan
Beltre had .421/.492/.737 line against me, but it came with a .511 BABIP. Chalk it up to bad luck.

Dan Haren is a national treasure. That Twitter thread is gold.
   2. Ziggy's screen name Posted: November 20, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5789687)
Hats off to Beltre. Not his hat though. Or, rather, if he does take it off, be careful not to touch his head.
   3. vortex of dissipation Posted: November 20, 2018 at 02:08 PM (#5789732)
I'm assuming he goes in as a Ranger rather than a Dodger?
   4. SoSH U at work Posted: November 20, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5789736)

I'm assuming he goes in as a Ranger rather than a Dodger?


I don't think there's any question there. He seems to think of himself as a Ranger first.
   5. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 20, 2018 at 02:17 PM (#5789741)
Fantastic career, and one of the more interesting shapes to a HOF career in my memory. Hard to argue he's retiring too early or too late. Would have been great to see him get to 500 HR, top 10 in hits/XBH/total bases, top 5 in doubles, but it might have been painful to watch.
   6. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: November 20, 2018 at 02:55 PM (#5789771)
Baseball is slightly less fun now. Great career.
   7. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: November 20, 2018 at 03:02 PM (#5789774)
#5: Yep! He hit .273 in his 20s but then .303 in his 30s. Who DOES that?!?
   8. Spahn Insane Posted: November 20, 2018 at 03:08 PM (#5789777)
#5: Yep! He hit .273 in his 20s but then .303 in his 30s. Who DOES that?!?

Guys who play their 20s in Dodger Stadium and Safeco, and their 30s in Fenway and Texas. (I kid, mostly--obviously Beltre's career arc is unique, and he was obviously a much better player in his 30s than his 20s (apart from 2004). But he certainly spent what would ordinarily be the prime of a guy's career in much tougher hitters parks.)

Beltre's been a great, entertaining player for a long time, and I'll miss him.
   9. Bote Man Posted: November 20, 2018 at 03:25 PM (#5789781)
I'd like to point out that this thread has yet to be published to the Newsstand page, but you are seeing it in the Hot Topics pane because I used the secret trick of commenting on it in the Stuff -> Sitewide Archives listing that I learned by wading through the dangerously close-to-OTP Baseball Prospectus sale thread. I'm safe now.
   10. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 20, 2018 at 03:37 PM (#5789784)

#5: Yep! He hit .273 in his 20s but then .303 in his 30s. Who DOES that?!?

It's even weirder than that. I mean, the guy puts up a 108 OPS+ at ages 20-21, with good plate discipline (.356 OBP). Sets a career high in walks at age 20. Looks like a future star.

Then the botched appendix surgery before his age-22 season, followed by 3 mediocre years at the plate (92 OPS+ with a .300 OBP).

Then hits like an MVP at age 25 (163 OPS+). Looks like he has turned the corner and rediscovered the talent that everyone thought was there.

Gets a big contract from Seattle, and basically reverts to being an average hitter for 5 seasons (101 OPS+, .317 OBP) in what should be the prime of his career, ages 26-30.

After that, he signs with Boston and then Texas, and becomes a superstar once again. 9 seasons of 130 OPS+ from age 31 onward.

I've always thought his ages 20-21, 25, and 31-39 look like they come from one career arc, and his ages 22-24, 26-30 from another.
   11. jmurph Posted: November 20, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5789785)
I'd like to point out that this thread has yet to be published to the Newsstand page, but you are seeing it in the Hot Topics pane because I used the secret trick of commenting on it in the Stuff -> Sitewide Archives listing that I learned by wading through the dangerously close-to-OTP Baseball Prospectus sale thread. I'm safe now.

Yep I've now done that at least three times since learning about it last week. And all 3 posts got a reasonable number of comments. Post more links, people!
   12. Srul Itza Posted: November 20, 2018 at 03:50 PM (#5789792)
I was hoping he would break Brooksie's record for most defensive games at third base (he needed another 112). According to dWAR, he was still a plus defender, and with 2.2 WAR over 116 games, he was clearly still capable of being a regular.

Sorry to see him go. Hope he enjoys his retirement as much as we enjoyed his career.
   13. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 20, 2018 at 03:57 PM (#5789796)

Beltre obviously would have been a HOFer even if he had merely been an average fielder, considering he finished with over 3,000 hits. But he would also have a pretty good HOF case even if he had merely been an average hitter as well -- at that point he would be a slightly worse version of Brooks (both at the plate and in the field). In either case he'd have been about a 70 WAR player. Pretty remarkable.
   14. McCoy Posted: November 20, 2018 at 08:01 PM (#5789869)
It's right here
   15. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 20, 2018 at 08:08 PM (#5789875)
Given how much more analytically-literate the electorate has become in recent years, Beltré will very likely get the requisite 75 percent of the vote to earn enshrinement in Cooperstown.
Beltre’s numbers ended up being such that even the most non-analytical voters would have to be convinced...or has Chass weighed in to the contrary?
   16. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 20, 2018 at 08:23 PM (#5789877)
It's right here

This item seems to be on the Hot Topics sidebar, but not on today's Newsblog. Weird.
   17. Ziggy's screen name Posted: November 20, 2018 at 09:05 PM (#5789883)
Transaction Oracle from the Seattle signing. Dial got his beer, but everyone else was right in the end. There's been lots of talk about how beltres HOF case came out of nowhere, but we were right on top of it back in the day. Now it's true that we got thrown off by the Seattle years (the 2009 update to the thread isn't so precient), but I'll give old school Primer a B+ on this one.
   18. villageidiom Posted: November 20, 2018 at 09:13 PM (#5789887)
This item seems to be on the Hot Topics sidebar, but not on today's Newsblog. Weird.
One of our members found a back door to threads that are still in "pending" status. If someone comments in those threads they show in Hot Topics, even though they're not officially published. I just went in and moved this one (and a few others) out of pending status, so they should show in Newsblog by now.

And I want to thank not just Bote Man for submitting this one, but dirk, Baldrick, and Srul Itza for having submitted similar threads. Some folks have recently expressed disappointment when they submit something and it doesn't get published. I'm trying to give a hat tip to folks when they make the effort, at least so they know their efforts are appreciated.
   19. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 20, 2018 at 09:15 PM (#5789888)
After that, he signs with Boston


And spends one, 1! glorious year at the hot corner in Boston and they refuse to give him the approx. 5/75 he deserves for his next contract, goes to Texas and the rest is history...

Yeah, I'm still pissed about it.

A really fun player who will be missed.
   20. Bote Man Posted: November 20, 2018 at 09:24 PM (#5789890)
Corrected link to Transaction Oracle from the 2004 Seattle signing from the Wayback Machine.

And thanks, V.I., for approving/publishing this thread. I checked the Sitewide Archive listing first to see if anybody else had submitted it; when I saw none about Beltre I went ahead and punched it in there. I wish that were more prominent as it would save some duplicate effort, but alas...
   21. ajnrules Posted: November 20, 2018 at 09:48 PM (#5789894)
I’ve never been to Cooperstown before, but I do plan on going in 2024 to watch Beltre’s induction. It’s been a lot of fun watching his progression from All-Star to Future Hall of Famer during his years in Texas.
   22. Rally Posted: November 20, 2018 at 10:42 PM (#5789900)
#5: Yep! He hit .273 in his 20s but then .303 in his 30s. Who DOES that?!?


Check out Pete Runnels. Moving to Fenway when he turned 30 was great for his BA
   23. asinwreck Posted: November 20, 2018 at 11:28 PM (#5789906)
Leg injuries cut into his durability, but he was still a good hitter. I am a little disappointed to not see his age-40 season.
   24. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 21, 2018 at 12:37 AM (#5789908)
In his speech at Cooperstown, I hope he thanks the bone spur in his left foot that kept him from diving at junk low and away during his MVP-worthy '04 season.

Bill James, somewhere in his writings, once mentioned a few players who acknowledged an injury of some kind actually helped their performance.
   25. Howie Menckel Posted: November 21, 2018 at 01:01 AM (#5789911)
I’ve never been to Cooperstown before, but I do plan on going in 2024 to watch Beltre’s induction.

be prepared to book a room up to a year in advance, literally (depending on who else is inducted that year), but it's a worthy pilgrimage.

Author James Fenimore Cooper grew up there; it has a Farmer's Museum and there is an opera house nearby.

New York is seen as an urban state, I suspect, but the vast majority of the land is more relatively rural like this. over the river and through the woods, to Grandmother's house we go!
   26. Lassus Posted: November 21, 2018 at 01:20 AM (#5789912)
Bring lots of water on induction day. I mean, sure, it might snow, but normally it's hot like death.

No, seriously.
   27. bbmck Posted: November 21, 2018 at 02:35 AM (#5789915)
Debut since 1951 (Mays) and min 3000 PA and .274 BA (Top 200) age 30-39, largest increase over age 20-29 BA no minimum for Age 20-29:

.285 Nori Aoki 285/DNP
.061 Bill Robinson 274/213
.054 Otis Nixon 279/225
.053 Jim Eisenreich 296/243
.051 Larry Walker 336/285

.044 Paul O'Neill 303/259
.041 Ozzie Smith 279/238
.041 Dante Bichette 311/270
.037 Randy Velarde 285/248
.035 Pete Runnels 309/274

.033 Tom Paciorek 289/256
.032 Jeff Kent 301/269
.030 Barry Bonds 315/285
.030 Adrian Beltre 303/273
.030 Stan Javier 281/251

.029 Paul Molitor 320/291
.029 Raul Ibanez 284/255
.028 Mark McGwire 277/249
.027 Tony Phillips 275/248
.027 Miguel Tejada 297/270

.026 Mike Stanley 277/251
.026 BJ Surhoff 294/268
.026 Ken Caminiti 282/256
.026 Marco Scutaro 282/256
.025 Luis Gonzalez 293/268

Among the 200 a .300+ BA at age 20-29 and it doesn't decrease age 30-39

.024 Roberto Clemente 331/307
.012 Tony Gwynn 344/332
.008 Edgar Martinez 319/311
.004 Magglio Ordonez 311/307
.001 Pete Rose 310/309
.000 Rod Carew 328, Manny Ramirez 312, Matty Alou 307, Michael Young 300
   28. Adam Starblind Posted: November 21, 2018 at 07:09 AM (#5789918)
Theo's Renteria signing is looking worse and worse.
   29. TomH Posted: November 21, 2018 at 07:42 AM (#5789920)
List of all players with >500 DPs as a third baseman:

1 Brooks
2 Beltre

Nice.

B Robinson had a about a 150 DP-turned lead over the next third sacker until Beltre closed the gap to less than 100.
   30. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: November 21, 2018 at 09:14 AM (#5789926)
ESPN needs to get a 30 for 30 on Beltre going, like stat.
   31. jmurph Posted: November 21, 2018 at 09:32 AM (#5789932)
Theo's Renteria signing is looking worse and worse.

Let's not jump to any conclusions so early.
   32. T.J. Posted: November 21, 2018 at 09:33 AM (#5789934)
My one pilgrimage to Cooperstown was part of a great trip during fall break from my 1L year at UNC School of Law in 1991. My best friend was in graduate school at UConn. We saw a game at Fenway and a game at Yankee Stadium. They were both dumps at the time, but it was still amazing. We also went to the top of the Empire State Building, saw the fall colors, went to the Basketball Hall of Fame, and went to the Baseball Hall of Fame. It was the day after the season ended. There was no traffic as we drove in around Otsego Lake. We parked literally at the front door, walked right in, and basically had the place to ourselves the whole day.
   33. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: November 21, 2018 at 10:45 AM (#5789975)
How many players are left from the 1990s now? Bartolo and ...?
   34. Adam Starblind Posted: November 21, 2018 at 11:09 AM (#5789995)
*looks up Tom Brady* Nope.
   35. bbmck Posted: November 21, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5789998)
Earliest Debuts who played in 2018:

1997 - Bartolo Colon
1998 - Adrian Beltre
2001 - CC Sabathia, Ichiro Suzuki, Albert Pujols
2002 - Fernando Rodney, Oliver Perez, Brandon Phillips, Victor Martinez
   36. cookiedabookie Posted: November 21, 2018 at 11:19 AM (#5790002)
33. Just Bartolo now, assuming he gets another shot
   37. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 21, 2018 at 11:55 AM (#5790028)
Just Colon left from the 20th Century, and he's looking shaky. Everybody feel old.
   38. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili (TeddyF.Ballgame) Posted: November 21, 2018 at 12:51 PM (#5790059)
Earliest Debuts who played in 2018:

1997 - Bartolo Colon
1998 - Adrian Beltre
2001 - CC Sabathia, Ichiro Suzuki, Albert Pujols
2002 - Fernando Rodney, Oliver Perez, Brandon Phillips, Victor Martinez



But note: Ichiro's NPB debut was . . . 1992, I think? Tommy John and Nolan Ryan territory in terms of total career length.
   39. Bote Man Posted: November 21, 2018 at 12:57 PM (#5790063)
I submit that a gimmick like Ichiro taking the field for only one day to retire as a member of the Mariners does NOT count for "still playing", so Bartolo it is. That's former Expos great Bartolo Colon, to you, bub!!
   40. eric Posted: November 21, 2018 at 01:00 PM (#5790065)
Corrected link to Transaction Oracle from the 2004 Seattle signing from the Wayback Machine.


Thanks for that link. I love time machines. That thread is full of familiar name posters who have long since disappeared, is from back when Win Shares was a big stat, and when no one on this list (quote is from post 32 bye JoeD) was in the HOF:


38 WS - Bobby Murcer 1971
37 WS - Barry Bonds 1990
36 WS - Tim Raines 1985
36 WS - Sal Bando 1969
36 WS - Jim Rice 1978
36 WS - Alex Rodriguez 2001

That's 50% if you think Raines gets in, 33% if you think he doesn't. I'm counting Bonds and ARod as in.


I hate to be the bearer of bad news about that list and your predictions, Joe...

   41. SoSH U at work Posted: November 21, 2018 at 01:00 PM (#5790066)
I submit that a gimmick like Ichiro taking the field for only one day to retire as a member of the Mariners does NOT count for "still playing",


Didn't Ichiro already retire as a Mariner?
   42. Man o' Schwar Posted: November 21, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5790079)
Corrected link to Transaction Oracle from the 2004 Seattle signing from the Wayback Machine.

I used to love the Transaction Oracle posts - after every trade/signing, this was the first place I checked to get a thoughtful analysis of what was done (even if that analysis was just a picture of a piece of toast). They almost always led to more thoughtful discussion/analysis in the comment section.

Bring back the TO!
   43. Bote Man Posted: November 21, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5790084)
Didn't Ichiro already retire as a Mariner?

They emphasized that he did NOT retire, he merely moved to another job in the organization, whatever that means.
   44. Astroenteritis Posted: November 21, 2018 at 02:15 PM (#5790121)
It was a joy to watch Adrian Beltre play baseball, even when he was tormenting the Astros. He will be missed.
   45. Walt Davis Posted: November 21, 2018 at 03:49 PM (#5790189)
Clemente is the first guy that comes to mind for the Beltre career arc. Hadn't thought of it until I saw him in the list, but Molitor does work pretty well as a hitter comp.

I was way wrong about Beltre's future ca 2011. Good guy to be wrong about it. No idea where I was during that TO thread, too early for Xmas travel, must have been swamped at work. I'd have been more Dial than JoeD though the Brooks comp was one I started using at some point which was a good comp until the Texas miracle.

But with hindsight, Booey won that thread in #1.
   46. vortex of dissipation Posted: November 21, 2018 at 04:18 PM (#5790203)
Didn't Ichiro already retire as a Mariner?


Jerry DiPoto has already said that Ichiro will be on the active roster for the Mariners season opening series against the Athletics in Japan next season.

"I would stop short of guaranteeing it, because we have to make sure he's healthy. But he'll be on our roster," Dipoto said. "We feel strongly that it's the right thing to do for our franchise and the right thing to do for the NPB and believe it's the right thing to do for Ichiro. What happens thereafter remains to be seen."
   47. cardsfanboy Posted: November 21, 2018 at 09:27 PM (#5790266)
We feel strongly that it's the right thing to do for our franchise


yes and maybe no, depending on the 40 man roster crunch that they may or may not be in.... beyond that, everything else he said is true.
   48. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: November 21, 2018 at 11:27 PM (#5790297)
Bill James, somewhere in his writings, once mentioned a few players who acknowledged an injury of some kind actually helped their performance.

Joe Carter broke his thumb in 1994 spring training when hit by a pitch by Scott Erickson. Carter started the season saying he had to consciously lay off the low outside pitches because it hurt too much to lunge at them. In April and May, Carter posted a very un-Joe Carter-like .326/.371/.635 line with 13 2B, 14 HR, and a 17/21 BB/SO ratio. Once he was back to full strength and could again flail away at the low outside stuff, from June 1 to the end of the season, Carter hit a much more usual .233/.277/.447 with 12 2B, 13 HR, and a 16/43 BB/SO ratio, while playing all but 4 games of the season.
   49. Bote Man Posted: November 21, 2018 at 11:44 PM (#5790300)
Signing free swingers to cheap contracts, then having Moose and Rocco break their thumbs is the new market inefficiency.
   50. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 22, 2018 at 04:25 AM (#5790307)
Carter started the season saying he had to consciously lay off the low outside pitches because it hurt too much to lunge at them. In April and May, Carter posted a very un-Joe Carter-like .326/.371/.635 line with 13 2B, 14 HR, and a 17/21 BB/SO ratio. Once he was back to full strength and could again flail away at the low outside stuff, from June 1 to the end of the season, Carter hit a much more usual .233/.277/.447 with 12 2B, 13 HR, and a 16/43 BB/SO ratio, while playing all but 4 games of the season.
Either there was no causality here and it was just a random two-month hot streak, or Joe Carter is dumb as a box of rocks.
   51. Walt Davis Posted: November 22, 2018 at 03:43 PM (#5790360)
or Joe Carter is dumb as a box of rocks

Well, the walk rate didn't really change during the hot streak so it seems unlikely he'd really become more patient ... so it probably was just a hot streak. Even just looking at that 94 season:

June 175/207/301
July 279/330/587 (difference is the BA ... but not really a BABIP thing)
Aug 260/309/460 (just 11 games)

So it was an outstanding April/May, an excellent July, a standard Carter Aug and one horrific June. He was 34 that year so that's not even evidence of decline. If not for that terrible June, it might have been the best "season" of his career.

He went off a cliff the next season at 35. Some of that might have just been the league settling into sillyball while he was declining at a normal pace. His 1996 line of 253/306/475 wouldn't look too bad today (108 OPS+ in 2018 Tor) but in a league posting a 349 OBP ... It's got to be tough, maybe impossible ... in his mid-20s, Carter was in a league that averaged an OBP around 325-330 and a SLG around 400 on an ISO around 140. In that kind of league, a powerful free swinger could make up in ISO/SLG what he was giving away in OBP. By age 35, the league is putting up a 340 OBP and a 425-430 SLG. Now you've got to ISO about 250 to keep up ... and you're now 35.
   52. Adam Starblind Posted: November 23, 2018 at 09:00 AM (#5790395)
Now you've got to ISO about 250 to keep up ... and you're now 35.


No what could a 35-year old player with declining skills do in 1997 to increase his ISO by about 50...
   53. McCoy Posted: November 23, 2018 at 09:30 AM (#5790397)
Ted Williams states his last great season happened because his bat was slow and he was banged up a bit to start the season but that defenses didn’t adjust. Then came summer and he felt good and the defenses had abandoned the shift and he had large vacated areas in the OF now. Personally I think he was full of shvt. Ted was a very contradictory person. He’d often contradict himself in the same interview or even answering the same question. He’s kind of like trump in that regard. He played games all the time and liked to hear himself talk.

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