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Friday, July 13, 2012

Calcaterra: Bill James probably needs to stop commenting on the Penn State scandal

Emphasis supplied by James:

  “The Freeh reports states quite explicitly and at least six times (a) that the 1998 incident did NOT involve any criminal conduct—on the part of Sandusky or anyone else—and (b) that Paterno had forced the resignation of Sandusky before the 1998 incident occurred … In any case, what EXACTLY is it that Paterno should have done? Fire him again? It is preposterous to argue, in my view, that PATERNO should have taken action after all of the people who were legally charged to take action had thoroughly examined the case and decided that no action was appropriate.”

I suppose if the question is, for some reason, limited to whether Paterno broke any laws in 1998, this exceedingly legalistic answer is marginally acceptable. But to sit here in 2012, knowing what we all now know about this, and about Paterno’s knowledge, subsequent inaction, subsequent lies and the tragic consequences of all of it which he, and maybe he alone, could have done the most to stop given his stature, and focus on whether at one brief moment in time Paterno was legally required to do more than he did seems preposterous.

It’s the sort of cherry-picking that, had someone done it to baseball data, would cause James to flip his lid. It is legalistic argument for argument’s sake that is so utterly beside the point when it comes to assessing Paterno in the present day that the word “misleading” doesn’t begin to do it justice.

JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:35 AM | 1094 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: bill james, sabermetrics

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   301. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2012 at 02:14 PM (#4183104)
But that doesn't mean that if the law doesn't prohibit it, then he should punish her.

agreed, though I do think that he was right to do so given MLB's interests. Anyway, James is still off the deep end here.
   302. The District Attorney Posted: July 15, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4183105)
robneyer @robneyer

I'm reading the Freeh Report. 44 pages down, 223 to go. Taking a break.
   303. robinred Posted: July 15, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4183120)
Where is the microphone being stuck in his face? Where is the misstep due to fumbling about near the third rail? Help.


I don't really get this. I just said James is blowing it in part because he is taking his Pete Rose/Dowd approach (I was the first person here to make the Dowd/Freeh comp here IIRC) with a topic that is a hell of lot more dangerous/important than Rose in an area about which he knows zip, and I simply said what I think Neyer was trying to say.

As to the shower thing, when our youngish assistant coaches (football and basketball) worked out/supervised our teams, I would sometimes see them in the big open shower with the players. But that wasn't a constant thing, there were always 25-30 guys or more, around, and we are talking about 15-18 year-olds, not little kids.
   304. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4183127)
Would it be possible to clean house at PSU and still field a football team? Ditch everyone involved, and then hire new people? Probably.
   305. The District Attorney Posted: July 15, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4183135)
The whole thing is a dodge, though. The point of the question was not "can you imagine a situation in which it would be ok for a grown man to view a naked boy?" The point was "even if McQueary wasn't explicit with Paterno, don't you think Paterno should have found it damn suspicious that Sandusky was showering with that boy at all?" And James knows perfectly well that that was the real question.

And, needless to say, it's a bad dodge, because it's so transparent. The only thing it can accomplish, in fact, is to provide an easy pull-quote/target for ridicule from the article -- "weirdo Bill James finds nothing unusual about men and boys showering together."

Just not the right answer.
   306. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 15, 2012 at 02:57 PM (#4183145)
for those wondering how this will play out note that psu is now taking direction from folks in corporate crisis management looking to salvage the brand.

everyone associated with the previous regime has been marginalized and folks will be pushed out the door in a metered process over the next year.

that means everyone save for basic admin/functionary roles

the university is being counselled that the hit will be severe iin terms of alums, corporate donations, state support, university branded merchandise, etc, etc

the lawyers are telling the financial folks to assume everything not nailed down may have to be dumped to pay for litigation

the crisis management and lawyer teams are telling the university to dump any visible connection to the old regime because it won't play well in front of a judge/judges since they call tell them so and so was fired and here are the new procedures but oh by the way we still have these visible ties to the bad old days but please ignore that jury/judge because that is there for other reasons.

draconian? overkill? quite likely. but the lawyers and others are telling them that if they don't carpetbomb the whole mess the thing will fester for years and they have umpteen corporate examples to use to justify these actions.

the only reason more changes have not happened already was the off chance the trial would play out differently. now that the guilty verdict is in if i had been hired by anyone associated with paterno i would have my resume circulating.



   307. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: July 15, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4183164)
Apologies for not reading the whole thread to see if this has been covered, but why wasn't Paterno indicted and why doesn't the Freeh report put the prosecutor who was running that grand jury in some pretty deep doo-doo? Is it that Schultz and Curley somehow managed to give Joe Pa just enough cover?
   308. base ball chick Posted: July 15, 2012 at 03:28 PM (#4183179)
i can understand joe paterno repeatedly sweeping the mess under the carpet to preserve his saint reputation and power because he considered rape of 10 year old white trash boys unimportant.

i can understand joe posnanski, hired to write a hagiography, brainwashed for months, saying stuff like - i can't believe it - wait, wait, it can't be true (he sounded like roger rabbit seeing pics of jessica rabbit playing pattycake with marvin acme).

i can understand rob neyer being reluctant to say anything negative about his oldest friend and mentor, trying to find a defense.

with bill james, seems to me that his whole life and career has been about sneering at people Who Think They Know, and pointing out as rudely as possible that They Don't Know and he himself is The Real Knower.

whole lot of people liked that attitude even though his thoughts and work were hardly original (father of sabermetrics my butt) and because his evaluations of many things turned out to be right, he was lionized for that AND FOR THE WAY HE SAID IT.

it's stuff like this should make a whole lot of james acolytes rethink their beliefs about james intellectual abilities

it is time like this i wish john was still alive to beautifully distinguish between legal and moral failures
   309. base ball chick Posted: July 15, 2012 at 03:32 PM (#4183186)
307 CA

best i can tell (new a genuwine laaar here) paterno was not indicted because at that time they were not able to catch him in a lie and because his failure to call police/CPS about any of the alleged rapes was not illegal and he did what was legally required which was to tell his immdiate "superior" and let him take it from there while joe just pretended nothing had happened.

he was never legally required to do anything more than what he did.

also he was still alive and i would bet a whole lot of $$$ that the GJ and prosecutors were still afraid of him
   310. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: July 15, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4183203)
they were not able to catch him in a lie


But Freeh apparently was able to do this. Didn't Paterno tell the GJ that he left it to Schultz and Curley to handle it? That doesn't square with the Curley saying that he was going to report until he met with Paterno. Seems to me that if Curley or Schultz had told that to the GJ, then Paterno should have been indicted for perjury too.

i would bet a whole lot of $$$ that the GJ and prosecutors were still afraid of him


So again, why doesn't the prosecutor have to answer for this?
   311. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4183212)
You can't charge someone with a crime without irrefutable evidence that he did in fact commit the crime. Otherwise you waste a lot of money and the jury acquits him. There is no such evidence that Paterno committed any crimes. His--at the very least--complicity in keeping Sandusky's rapes quiet is ethically detestable, but he did in fact fulfill the requirements of the law. Or at least there isn't clear evidence he didn't.
   312. Monty Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4183229)
It's out next month.


Posnanski's book even has an Amazon page with a book cover and a blurb. So I guess it really is coming out. Here's the blurb:

By America’s premier sportswriter, written with full cooperation of Joe Paterno and his family, Paterno is the definitive account of the epic life of America’s winningest college football coach. Published to coincide with Penn State football’s first season without their legendary leader.

Born in Brooklyn in 1926, Joe Paterno was a first generation college student who became a star quarterback while attending Brown University. After graduation in 1950, at age twenty-three, he was hired by his former coach as assistant coach at Penn State. Over the course of sixty-two football seasons, Joe Paterno’s influence was felt as the Nittany Lions won 409 games, a Division I record for a coach. He was honored with every distinction the sports industry has to offer, from being the coach to receive Sports Illustrated’s Sportsman of the Year Award, to the Associated Press College Football Coach Award, to the NCAA’s Gerald R. Ford Award.

Joe Posnanski spent the last two years of Paterno’s life with him, getting to know the man and his family, and was there as the scandal broke that eventually consumed him. Written with unprecedented access, Paterno gets inside the mind of one of America’s most brilliant and charismatic coaches.
   313. robinred Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4183234)
Just not the right answer.


Indeed. That is more or less what Calcaterra said as well.
   314. robinred Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4183237)
So I guess it really is coming out.


IIRC, Posnanski's advance was massive, and of course they are assuming that the scandal will jack up sales well beyond what they would have been anyway.
   315. Rear Admiral Piazza Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4183240)
http://www.nittanyfootball.com/ubbthreads/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=57546&page=0&fpart=231&vc=1

This thread is from 2010. I'm pretty sure that more than a few people around State College knew something, though they probably knew around the time the Sandusky investigation got rolling.

Before that? Who knows. I certainly am suspicious.

But nuking the program because a bunch of you don't like Big Time College Football isn't the way to go about this, any more you nuke the Presidency because you don't like what someone with a little bit of power. I didn't like the Iraq War, but if you want to prevent another such war you can't magically wave your hand and get rid of an entire institution. You remain vigilant, you act to try to take over the institutions that you believe have done wrong.

The delusional folks in State College aside, most of us have the sense to go after those actually culpable, a result which will include people going to jail and the University paying a significant penalty to the victims as compensation. In other words, pretty much in the manner manner as how everything else in the justice system works. I'm not really interested in a solution where random employees, random business owners, and random students (I love how some just casually assume that asking a football player to find another program is something that's just done, as if this kid is some pawn in your little game to make the world more like you'd want it to be) are punished out of some sort of blood lust. I'm interested in a solution where Graham Spanier, Curley, et al, are punished for what they've done.

And let's not pretend that nuking PSU would set some sort of precedent as a deterrent (as if child rape was a common problem in big time programs run by elderly, out of touch legendary coaches). If anything, giving the NCAA such authority will just make the cover up run even deeper. You're the president of the college, you've been there for a year, and something like this falls on your lap? Don't you cover it up, even though you don't approve and want no part of it, just because admitting it means destruction of a significant part of the institution that you govern.

And I think it's hilarious that those of you who are so critical of college sports as currently run think the answer lies in giving the *NCAA* more power.
   316. gef the talking mongoose Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4183241)
why wasn't Paterno indicted


Maybe they were afraid that Happy Valley would've turned into Jonestown redux (judging from the wailing & gnashing of teeth & rending of garments we saw after Paterno was finally forced out)?

   317. Rear Admiral Piazza Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4183242)
And I'm done with Bill James. He's off in Art Bell land now. Great minds can lose it like that. The guy who invented the PCR will tell you that HIV doesn't exist, even if we use his invention to prove its existence all the time.
   318. Monty Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4183244)
He's off in Art Bell land now.


The Philippines?
   319. Zach Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:34 PM (#4183250)
As I recall, the Grand Jury declined to indict Paterno because, by passing along the story to his nominal superiors, he obeyed the letter of the law with regards to his reporting responsibilities.

Who knows what they would have done if they had seen the smoking gun emails in the Freeh report, though. The email chain goes something like

1) We're definitely going to report this
2) Have we decided on our course of action? Coach is VERY interested
3) I talked with Coach, and the new plan is to do nothing.
4) I definitely agree that the new plan is wonderful and not at all insane, although I want to note for the record that if this behavior doesn't stop, we are completely screwed.
...
5) Coach wants to rehire Sandusky.

If you wanted to prosecute Paterno, it seems like you'd have to turn Curley or else find an outside witness. As the only person not conducting his business by email, he's the only one who successfully avoided a paper trail. Lessons for anyone planning their own criminal conspiracy, I guess.
   320. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4183251)
it won't be the NCAA who nukes anything

it will be the psu leadership demonstrating that things are going in a 'new' direction

i feel for those not in the athletic dept because the psu they joined and knew is likely going to cease to exist

   321. Rear Admiral Piazza Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4183253)
Neyer is off base. It's true, being a contrarian has helped James get where he is, but there are still judgment calls, and this doesn't entail that to be a revolutionary thinker you must go around telling everyone the sky is green.

What made James who he is was an insight into the hidden aspects of the game that could be seen using numbers. I don't see why that gives him any special insight into matters that, as presented in the Freeh Report, are actually pretty open and shut. Indeed, he's actively ignoring facts, not seeking out the hidden facts, to support his position.

And if Neyer is his friend, he helps James by talking to him, not by throwing out a non sequitur about having read the Freeh Report. Given James' comments, it's pretty clear he's the one that's not read that report.
   322. robinred Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4183256)
it's stuff like this should make a whole lot of james acolytes rethink their beliefs about james intellectual abilities


Nah. James has written a lot of great stuff about baseball and is a smart man. He is just blowing it very badly here. Intelligence isn't unilinear; different people are smart in different ways, and on top of that, people need to be careful when they are opining outside their knowledge bases. James actually joked about this in one of the Abstracts, in relation to Sigmund Freud and Albert Einstein. He forgot to apply it to himself.

I think it is reasonable to think less of Bill James the man due to this; I do. But it is not as if this means the Abstracts all actually sucked or James was always an intellectual fraud and a crappy writer. Bill James the baseball writer is still Bill James the baseball writer. You don't like him, and have been very loud and insistent about that for years, but this doesn't change his baseball work.

   323. Rear Admiral Piazza Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4183258)
Paterno wasn't indicted - the politics aside - because they didn't have anything that would stick to him. Now, sure, at this point they could find probable perjury, probable interference in an investigation. And then there's the civil penalties. But I wasn't surprised to see that Paterno wasn't originally indicted. It's unfortunate, because it gave the perception to some that Paterno was somehow outside the problem, but the Freeh Report is showing that he, in fact, was the problem when it came toward dealing with Sandusky.
   324. Swedish Chef Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4183259)
The guy who invented the PCR will tell you that HIV doesn't exist, even if we use his invention to prove its existence all the time.

I read his book, he believes every single crackpot theory there are, including astrology and telepathy. Either he is the most gullible person in the world or he has dedicated his life to be an epic troll. Because it must be pretty funny to spew that nonsense while waving your Nobel in the face of science-worshiping skeptics.
   325. Rear Admiral Piazza Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4183263)
I read his book, he believes every single crackpot theory there are, including astrology and telepathy. Either he is the most gullible person in the world or he has dedicated his life to be an epic troll. Because it must be pretty funny to spew that nonsense while waving your Nobel in the face of science-worshiping skeptics.


Admittedly, he came up with the PCR while on PCP, or peyote, or something (the story I recall is that a glowing raccoon told him how to do it), so perhaps he just got lucky. Helluva way to get lucky, though.
   326. Srul Itza At Home Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4183264)
Who knows what they would have done if they had seen the smoking gun emails in the Freeh report, though. The email chain goes something like

1) We're definitely going to report this
2) Have we decided on our course of action? Coach is VERY interested
3) I talked with Coach, and the new plan is to do nothing.
4) I agree that the new plan is more humane (?!), although I want to note for the record that if this behavior doesn't stop, we are completely screwed.
...
5) Coach wants to rehire Sandusky.


I think you are conflating e-mails from 1998 with 2001.

In 1998, there was a full scale investigation going on. At the end of the investigation, Sandusky was not indicted. By that time, he was already separated, or being separated, from Penn State football. Joe Paterno may have known more about the investigation then he let on, and even with Sandusky not being indicted he should have more completely severed ties with him, but there was no criminal wrongdoing.

In 2001, Paterno reported the matter to his "superiors". That was all the law required him to do. He then apparently talked his "superiors" out of informing the police. This is based on two e-mails, but the e-mails are vague enough that all you can say for sure is that he talked to his superiors, not what he said. He may have been guilty of soliciting a crime, by convincing his superiors to break the law requiring them to report, but you would never get a conviction based on the plain text of the e-mails unless his "superiors" testified that this is what Joe did, and so far they have not. [EDIT: As to JoePa, the e-mails would be double or triple hearsay; there might be some exceptions to get them into evidence, but it would be a push].

During his Grand Jury testimony, JoePa apparently denied or downplayed his contacts with his superiors regarding the incident. It is not clear that the Grand Jury had those e-mails which might be proof of perjury. It is possible they did not, and by the time all this came out, JoePa was dead.
   327. Zach Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4183265)
I'm sure I'm not the only person who read Harvey's post and thought "Nuke it from orbit. It's the only way to be sure."

I think if you're the new college president, you pretty much have to sweep clean. You have the incalculable advantage of having nothing to do with the scandal, and you can't give that up for anything. In the long run, you actually prefer a scandal-filled report, because it strengthens your hand in getting rid of the old guys.

The Freeh report illustrates why Paterno had to go. Suppose you were hired to be the new president, and you inexplicably decide that Paterno can stay. Then six months into your tenure, the Freeh report comes back with smoking gun evidence that Paterno was implicated in the scandal. Now you've lost all credibility, and you don't even get to keep Paterno.
   328. Zach Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:50 PM (#4183266)
I think you are conflating e-mails from 1998 with 2001.

Possibly, although I thought that the "humane" discussion was all in 1998. Rehiring Sandusky in 1999 is just insane, though.
   329. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:50 PM (#4183267)
zach

the college president isn't calling the shots here

from the moment they pushed aside the board leader to fire paterno psu as folks knew it became a corporate entity intent on survival
   330. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4183269)
who in the pittsburgh legislature has been griping about psu?

that person is also having a voice in how things play out
   331. Srul Itza At Home Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4183270)
Possibly, although I thought that the "humane" discussion was all in 1998.


I am pretty sure that is 2001, because the "humane" thing was not reporting him to the cops. In 1998, the cops were already investigating.
   332. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: July 15, 2012 at 05:02 PM (#4183273)
What does the Pittsburgh legislature have to do with PSU?
   333. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 15, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4183279)
if psu receives any public funds any legislator who has been griping will now have a chance to put his/her stamp on things
   334. Zach Posted: July 15, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4183281)
zach

the college president isn't calling the shots here


Well, if he has any shots to call, he should call them. There's no way you can take that job if Paterno stays.
   335. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 15, 2012 at 05:08 PM (#4183282)
and if folks think i am daft they don't understand how political these things become

it's bad politics to be anti-something until it is isn't

first one to brand himself as a "reformer" gets the pot of gold
   336. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 15, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4183285)
just seen a lot of these things play out

not trying to be a foreteller of doom

hope i am wrong

   337. base ball chick Posted: July 15, 2012 at 05:19 PM (#4183292)
i wouldn't be surprised if LOTS of people knew about the raping but were too afraid of paterno to speak to anyone. people are not just afraid of paterno, but of everyone else who will be angry that they did anything against their saint, because they too just don't really care about someone else's kids being raped, they care about football games. they care about the image of their False Saint

   338. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: July 15, 2012 at 05:21 PM (#4183294)
You mean the state legislature?

I really have never heard of any legislator try to make a name for himself by trying to take on Penn State University, before or after the crisis. Unlike in your home state, PSU is based in the middle of rural nowhere where absolutely nothing else happens and nobody wants to live if they don't work at PSU, so it can't be attacked as a bastion of liberal elitism. And just about every county has a branch campus or two, which are all pretty boring entities. You'd think the Pitt/Penn State rivalry would lead to some zero-sum power struggles, like the ridiculous scenario of Kentucky and Louisville basically having warring blocs of hardcore fans in the state government, but that doesn't seem to be the case. We have Pitt, PSU, Temple, the various "_________ University of Pennsylvania" schools with good wrestling teams, it's a multipolar situation.

Also it's long been the case that Penn State and Pitt have gotten less than 10% of their operating budget from the state, and have had much higher tuition than most so-called public schools, so they aren't dependent on continuing good will from state legislators for their very existence. See the "Commonwealth System of Higher Education". I don't quite know what it means to be "state-related" rather than "state-controlled" but it seems important.

At the moment, even with the new state government elected in 2010 trying its utmost to cut budgets of every level of public education, PSU managed to maintain its previous year's amount of state funding this year and is having its smallest tuition increases in years.
   339. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 15, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4183297)
crispix

okey doke
   340. The District Attorney Posted: July 15, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4183306)
robneyer @robneyer

I've now read the Freeh Report. Paterno could have done more than he did, but people will see what they want to see. thefreehreportonpsu.com
   341. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 05:45 PM (#4183310)
first one to brand himself as a "reformer" gets the pot of gold


Only if you do it in an irish accent.
   342. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: July 15, 2012 at 05:45 PM (#4183311)
Possibly, although I thought that the "humane" discussion was all in 1998. Rehiring Sandusky in 1999 is just insane, though.


The humane email is from 2001. See page 75 of the Freeh Report. There wasn't any discussion about "rehiring" him in 1999, he hadn't retired yet. That discussion was over the terms of his retirement. He was demanding extra money to retire and they were discussing whether it just made more sense to let him keep coaching. See pp. 55-59.
   343. Monty Posted: July 15, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4183315)
people will see what they want to see.


Everyone who says that means that other people see what they want to see, while they themselves are perfectly free from bias and see the true nature of everything.
   344. The District Attorney Posted: July 15, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4183317)
Everyone who says that means that other people see what they want to see, while they themselves are perfectly free from bias and see the true nature of everything.
Yeah, that struck me as a remarkably lame non-statement in the form of a statement.

Rob's next tweet after that was asking someone "Have you read the Freeh Report?" So I guess now he can do that to people.
   345. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: July 15, 2012 at 06:00 PM (#4183319)
who in the pittsburgh legislature has been griping about psu?


You mean Harrisburg.
   346. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: July 15, 2012 at 06:13 PM (#4183328)
Now, sure, at this point they could find probable perjury...


Yeah, perjury is what I was talking about. I'm not seeing how he could have been indicted for anything else even if the GJ had had everything in the Freeh report. But the same GJ that decided Paterno was telling the truth indicted Curley and Schultz. I suppose if they'd asked Curley some more pointed questions, he'd have just perjured himself a few more times.
   347. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 06:13 PM (#4183329)
The governor of Pennsylvania, Tom Corbett, originally opened and investigated the Sandusky case when he was Attorney General and has been instrumental in guiding the Penn State Board of Directors through the firing of Paterno and everything that followed after Sandusky was indicted, I believe.
   348. Bruce Markusen Posted: July 15, 2012 at 06:30 PM (#4183334)
"Paterno COULD have done more than he did." That may be the understatement of the decade.
   349. gef the talking mongoose Posted: July 15, 2012 at 06:47 PM (#4183341)
The governor of Pennsylvania, Tom Corbett, originally opened and investigated the Sandusky case when he was Attorney General and has been instrumental in guiding the Penn State Board of Directors through the firing of Paterno and everything that followed after Sandusky was indicted, I believe.


Judging from an ESPN Magazine story (one of the exceedingly rare worthwhile ones in that publication) I read just a couple of months ago, that appears to be the case.
   350. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 15, 2012 at 06:48 PM (#4183343)
And just about every county has a branch campus or two

To be precise, there are 19 branch campuses across the 67 counties. I went to two of them, Abington and Behrend (Erie) as well as the main campus. Yeah, I changed majors a lot, too.

There is a graduate center in Chester County (western Philly suburbs). I don't know if there is one out by Pittsburgh or not.
   351. gef the talking mongoose Posted: July 15, 2012 at 06:49 PM (#4183344)
"Paterno COULD have done more than he did." That may be the understatement of the decade.


"Bill James COULD make a bigger fool of himself" might be a close second.

"Rob Neyer COULD kiss Bill James' ass more shamefully" is in the running as well.
   352. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 15, 2012 at 06:55 PM (#4183346)
the governor was informed on paterno's firing

but the guy from us steel didn't need guiding

   353. base ball chick Posted: July 15, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4183353)
robin

i don't like james' style of writing, you're right. he's a vicious little shtt. to be nice about it. he was correct about many things about baseball players and many stats. but he's like the attack Dog who starts out attacking and he brings down 3 murderers. Yay. hero. But trouble is it's an attack Dog and you can be happy he brought down Bad People but trouble is he attacks little old ladies and the response should not be - but look at the murderers he got!!!

something is seriously fundamentally wrong with the way he thinks. he's not a genius because geniuses do not refuse to ever re-evaluate what/how they think. stubbornness can be a virtue but it can go to far and with james, he's gone WAAAAAYYY over the edge. it's like he's insisting that sac bunts are wonderful because it's what pitchers do best.
   354. AndrewJ Posted: July 15, 2012 at 07:38 PM (#4183361)
Vida Blue said that after he exploded onto the scene in 1971 and won a few games in a row, he found himself suddenly answering sportswriters' questions about civil rights and Vietnam... and being taken seriously. That's sort of what I'm seeing here: Bill James has proven himself an expert on baseball -- let's ask him about Paterno and Penn State. With all due respect to Bill, even if his position on the Sandusky case meshed 100% with that of the general public, it simply wouldn't have occurred to me in a million years to ask for his opinion on it.
   355. JJ1986 Posted: July 15, 2012 at 07:54 PM (#4183367)
he's not a genius because geniuses do not refuse to ever re-evaluate what/how they think.


This doesn't really sound like James (at least on baseball). He was quite willing to re-evaluate his opinions.
   356. robinred Posted: July 15, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4183368)
he's not a genius because geniuses do not refuse to ever re-evaluate what/how they think


James has re-evaluated his stance on a lot of baseball issues (like the sac bunt). You just have a personal thing about James. He certainly deserves to get reamed for the Paterno thing, and he is, and will be. But it doesn't have much to do with his baseball work. If you want to criticize that, fair enough. But it's mostly a separate issue.
   357. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2012 at 08:27 PM (#4183389)
With all due respect to Bill, even if his position on the Sandusky case meshed 100% with that of the general public, it simply wouldn't have occurred to me in a million years to ask for his opinion on it.


As has been pointed out, it didn't occur to anyone else, either.
   358. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 08:32 PM (#4183391)
This is only tangentially related to Sandusky/Paterno, but I encourage you to read this about the woman in charge of discipline at PSU and her confrontaions with JoPa

And then one day in late 2004, as disciplinary sanctions were being considered against a member of the football team, she received a visit from Paterno's wife, who had tutored the player.

He's a good kid, Sue Paterno said. Could they give him a break?

Triponey realized then that she wasn't in Kansas anymore. Or even Connecticut.

By the next year, 2005, she was battling Paterno himself over who controlled how football players were disciplined. Paterno also chafed over enforcing Penn State's code of conduct off campus.

Spanier called a meeting at which Paterno angrily dominated the conversation, Triponey recalled. She summarized the meeting in an e-mail to Spanier, Athletic Director Tim Curley and others, complaining that Paterno "is insistent that he knows best how to discipline his players" and that her department should back off.

She noted that Paterno preferred to keep the public in the dark about player infractions involving violence, and he pushed for not enforcing the student code of conduct off campus. She added that having "a major problem with Coach Paterno should not be our concern" in making disciplinary decisions....

Paterno clearly seemed to resent "meddling" from outsiders, even if Triponey was simply doing her job. She saw the dangers of special treatment that placed football players under a softer standard than other students lived by. She said it wasn't right. But it was a battle she couldn't win.

Paterno ridiculed her on a radio show as "that lady in Old Main" who couldn't possibly know how to handle students because "she didn't have kids."


it offers an insight into the "Penn State Way"--not a very flattering one, either
   359. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 08:37 PM (#4183393)
Apologies for not reading the whole thread to see if this has been covered, but why wasn't Paterno indicted and why doesn't the Freeh report put the prosecutor who was running that grand jury in some pretty deep doo-doo? Is it that Schultz and Curley somehow managed to give Joe Pa just enough cover?
Paterno could not have been indicted for failing to report because he did the bare minimum in that regard. He could have been indicted for perjury based on the various emails that Freeh found, but they never could have secured a conviction, unless they immunized one or more of the other guys to testify against him.
   360. AndrewJ Posted: July 15, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4183394)
With all due respect to Bill, even if his position on the Sandusky case meshed 100% with that of the general public, it simply wouldn't have occurred to me in a million years to ask for his opinion on it.


As has been pointed out, it didn't occur to anyone else, either.

It did to the Bill James Online member who posted the original question a few days ago.
   361. base ball chick Posted: July 15, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4183395)
robin

i haven't criticized his baseball concepts (with the exception of his spitting on jeff bagwell) . i have criticized the WAY he talks. he makes me want to put on large brass knuckles and punch him very VERY hard in the nose and i don't like feeling that way and i don't like people who make me feel that way.

i have most positively criticized james' work on topics which are not particularly baseball related - such as his defense of pete rose/criticism of the dowd report AND his absolute refusal to re-think or re-evaluate any sort of rebuttal. i haven't read his book on true crime so i can't say much about that. but i certainly can look at his mind and how he's thinkin about the paterno/sandusky thing and think that he's the kind of person who is always looking for something to criticize/put down and i realize that he's like the minor leaguer who can't adjust to ML pitchers adjusting to him

p.s. happy birthday - i know it's right around now
   362. The District Attorney Posted: July 15, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4183397)
It did to the Bill James Online member who posted the original question a few days ago.
James took it upon himself to write a 6,000+ word article very strongly defending Paterno, published December 11, 2011.

with the exception of his spitting on jeff bagwell
I think James' "Pass." on Bagwell just meant "This guy is a current superstar. I can't think of anything to say that you wouldn't already know, and/or let's wait a while so we can better put his career in perspective."

(He did, however, devote an entire article to the proposition that the 1985 Astros were boring. And if you liked Enos Cabell, hoo boy.)
   363. FrankM Posted: July 15, 2012 at 09:05 PM (#4183404)
James spitting on Jeff Bagwell? That's rather hilarious, considering he ranked Bagwell as the #4 first baseman of all time.
   364. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2012 at 09:10 PM (#4183408)
has James had anything to say about the 9/11 report?
   365. robinred Posted: July 15, 2012 at 09:22 PM (#4183412)
Lisa,

Fair enough. Thanks for the bday wishes; it was a couple of weeks ago. As you can tell, I am older but no smarter.
   366. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: July 15, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4183413)
He could have been indicted for perjury based on the various emails that Freeh found, but they never could have secured a conviction, unless they immunized one or more of the other guys to testify against him.


So what sort of odds would you lay on convicting Curley and/or Schultz, assuming that they don't immunize one to testify against the other?
   367. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 09:46 PM (#4183419)
Someone asked James in an ESPN chat or something years ago about the "Pass" on Bagwell, and James said something along the lines of "I wrote and re-wrote his blurb a half dozen times and was never satisfied with it, and I ran out of time and the publisher sent the book to press without one." I don't think he expected it to be something he still was regularly asked about (and ridiculed with) more than ten years later.
   368. base ball chick Posted: July 15, 2012 at 09:50 PM (#4183421)
james did not say "pass" under any other player's name. i'm tired of the trying to excuse his diss.

i had read the 12/11/11 paterno defense - forgotten about it. one of those make my blood pressure go up thingy

   369. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 09:54 PM (#4183424)
Why, exactly, do you believe the "Pass" was a conscious and specific attack against Jeff Bagwell on James' part? Is there something to this story I'm unaware of? I'm being serious, not trolling; I'm really wondering if I missed something that was said or done years ago.
   370. Dag Nabbit has the talking pillow Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:09 PM (#4183429)
It did to the Bill James Online member who posted the original question a few days ago.

James took it upon himself to write a 6,000+ word article very strongly defending Paterno, published December 11, 2011.

IIRC, the week the whole Sandusky scandal first broke someone asked a question in the "Hey Bill" mailbag and James made his original response - which began him on this course. There were some follow up questions. Then I guess he wrote article you note above. I didn't know about that one - is it behind his paywall?
   371. Ron J Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:11 PM (#4183430)
Actually the story I've heard about the "pass" comment is that it's in essence a copy editing error (and James simply doesn't permit anybody to edit his copy).

It was a place-holder for a comment from somebody else.
   372. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:16 PM (#4183435)
IIRC, the week the whole Sandusky scandal first broke someone asked a question in the "Hey Bill" mailbag and James made his original response - which began him on this course. There were some follow up questions. Then I guess he wrote article you note above. I didn't know about that one - is it behind his paywall?
No. And it's bad. Very very bad. It's worse than anything Murray Chass ever wrote about Mike Piazza. Worse than Jon Heyman on Roger Clemens.
   373. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:19 PM (#4183436)
James's 11 December article

I'd offer DN a Coke, but would he take a handout?
   374. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:24 PM (#4183439)
Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:19 PM (#4183436)
James's 11 December article

I'd offer DN a Coke, but would he take a handout?

as long as it's not a supersized Slurpee, Mayor
   375. Sunday silence Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:29 PM (#4183443)
...geniuses do not refuse to ever re-evaluate what/how they think.


Bobby Fischer says: "Hello."
   376. jobu Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:29 PM (#4183444)
I'm 1/4 of the way throught the Bill James Popular Crime book, and I came across this interesting passage:

"Why did almost everybody in the South, including Mary Phagan's family, choose to believe a filthy, drunken, semi-illiterate black criminal telling a story that doesn't match the known facts in one particular after another, rather than a clean, white, sober, upstanding and respectable factory supervisor whose only real story was that he had no idea what had happened?

"The short answer is that our emotions, once engaged, have a powerful capacity to pull us toward the explanation we choose to believe."

Jumps right off the page in the context of the PSU case. Analogs:
- "Everybody in the South" = All the people who bought into the popular explanation of Paterno's culpability and whose emotions are now engaged, pulling them "toward the explanation [they] choose to believe"
- "Filthy, drunken, semi-illterate black criminal telling a story that doesn't match the known facts in one particular after another" = the popular press
- "Clean, white, sober upstanding and respectable factory supervisor whose only real story was that he had no idea what had happened?" = Joe Paterno
- Voice of truth and justice Bill James = Voice of truth and justice Bill James

Seeing how he addresses a lot of the cases in the book, I think he believes he's got this whole judge-and-jury thing down, and he's whiffed a bit too much of his own exhaust. Plus he's moved from decades- or centuries-old cases to something where the emotions are still raw.
   377. JJ1986 Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:32 PM (#4183446)
No. And it's bad. Very very bad. It's worse than anything Murray Chass ever wrote about Mike Piazza. Worse than Jon Heyman on Roger Clemens.


I'm not sure how offensive this is because it's so absolutely insane. It reads like the ravings of a madman trying to justify his own crimes.
   378. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:32 PM (#4183448)
A one sentence excerpt from the article James posted on his site tonight, "The Fastest Player in Baseball":

The fastest player is almost always smaller than the slowest player; I had a column in there for "weight", but I had to cut it to make room, and baseball weights are in general less reliable than the Freeh Report, anyway.


He is really not letting this go. I almost perversely admire his stubbornness.
   379. Ron J Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:36 PM (#4183450)
#369 He was high on Bagwell from day one. He wrote a piece on how his projections first got national attention after Gammons wrote a piece noting that James had called Bagwell (then a rookie) to win the batting title. As James noted in the article, he really hadn't, since Bagwell was listed in the "These Guys can play and might get a shot" section (IOW he wouldn't have bet on Bagwell getting enough playing time to qualify, but he would have expected him to hit if he did)

Still, from day one, James was a Bagwell fan. See for instance his comment in the 1995 Player Rating Book: "... I always thought I was Bagwell's biggest fan, but I never dreamed he would do this." The year before he says, "... If I were to draw up a list of five players with the best chance to be the National League MVP in 1994, Bagwell would certainly be on the list. He's only 25, hits for average and power, will take a walk, surprisingly good baserunner and exceptional defensive first baseman."

BBC you're quite simply wrong about James and Bagwell. The next time he writes something less than positive about Bagwell (as noted, he rated him #4) will be the first.
   380. Monty Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:43 PM (#4183451)
He is really not letting this go. I almost perversely admire his stubbornness.


At least he's acknowledging that the Freeh report does not support his interpretation of events. I mean, I still disagree with him, but at least he's being more consistent now.
   381. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:53 PM (#4183456)
Bill James was good in the beginning, but then he went too far.
   382. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 10:57 PM (#4183459)
Bill James was good in the beginning, but then he went too far.

backdoor Godwin--touche
   383. Der_K Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4183461)
Second Ron J on James/Bagwell - he loved that dude.
   384. Esoteric throws a 'hard slider' Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:07 PM (#4183465)
No. And it's bad. Very very bad. It's worse than anything Murray Chass ever wrote about Mike Piazza. Worse than Jon Heyman on Roger Clemens.
Holy mother of god. Did everyone else know about this 12/11/11 article James wrote? It's...insane. Not the hyperbolic sense, but rather in the "I question the mental balance of anyone who wrote this article."

It's morally revolting. Perhaps marginally less so than his current ravings because it was written before the Freeh Report. Then again, as J. Zeth pointed out in #378, he's treating the Freeh Report in much the same manner as those "Loose Change" a**holes treated the 9/11 Commission's report, so he's doubling down.

Why the hell does Bill James feel compelled to destroy his reputation on behalf of Joe Paterno? There has to be more to it than just the "contrarian" schtick, no?

EDIT: Oh, and late-breaking Primey for #381.
   385. Esoteric throws a 'hard slider' Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:12 PM (#4183467)
The most perverse thing about the 12/11/11 article by Bill James? The morally insane framing device. You see, there's a trial. But the issue before the judge? Penn State stands accused of unfairly besmirching the reputation of good ol' Joe Paterno. I sh*t you not. This is the opening statement:
PROSECUTOR: We will prove that Penn State did in fact act rashly and irresponsibly, and that they were grossly unfair to Mr. Paterno. Mr. Paterno gave to Penn State University decades of faithful and honorable service, upholding the highest standards of competence and integrity. If at any point the University decided that he was no longer the best man to lead their football program, they were entitled to do so without complaint. They were, however, not entitled to gratuitously damage his reputation in the process of so doing.
You see, the question worth discussing, to Bill James, isn't whether Paterno is morally or legally responsible for allowing Sandusky to prey upon little boys for a decade. No, the question we need to focus on is whether PSU harmed the great man's legacy. Ye gods.
   386. Dag Nabbit has the talking pillow Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:13 PM (#4183468)
No. And it's bad. Very very bad. It's worse than anything Murray Chass ever wrote about Mike Piazza. Worse than Jon Heyman on Roger Clemens.

Thanks for the link. (starts reading it). Life it too short to get through this.
   387. The District Attorney Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:18 PM (#4183472)
Oh, I assumed it was behind the paywall; that's why I didn't link it. Huh.
   388. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:24 PM (#4183477)
Oh, I assumed it was behind the paywall

it should have been
   389. Steve Treder Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4183481)
Life is too short to get through this.

That's exactly my feeling. Good grief. This is 10,000 miles beyond the "somebody stuck a microphone in his face" point. 10,000 miles into la-la-land. I'm kind of creeping out.
   390. Esoteric throws a 'hard slider' Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:30 PM (#4183484)
Seriously: I dare any and all Primates to get all the way through this revolting article. Even granting that it was written before the Freeh Report came out, remember that the Freeh Report merely confirmed what we had all already suspected about what Paterno knew (and the absolute power that he held within the PSU administration).

I feel authentically angry after finishing this fetid, steaming piece of tripe. BBTF is a place where hyperbole is overused, and I'm a major offender, but I really don't think I'm using hyperbole when I say that I will never be able to read Bill James' material again the same way.

And it's not for reasons of moral outrage either, really. It's because stuff like this simply calls into question, for me, the reliability and trustworthiness of James as a guide. Perhaps I can tell myself that, so long as James sticks to quantitative things, he's still okay.
   391. Howie Menckel Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:32 PM (#4183485)

I agree with the idea that "Pass" was not a dis on Bagwell, though I can imagine that it might have seemed like it....

   392. JJ1986 Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:34 PM (#4183486)
The notes like "Ten minute recess" are the weirdest part to me. As though Bill thinks that people will read this as an actual theatrical work and not just an essay.
   393. Shock Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:39 PM (#4183488)
Dare accepted.

Dare failed.

The notes like "Ten minute recess" are the weirdest part to me. As though Bill thinks that people will read this as an actual theatrical work and not just an essay.


I thought that was the one redeeming quality. "Mr. Grand Jury" was of minor amusement.
   394. Esoteric throws a 'hard slider' Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:46 PM (#4183489)
Dare accepted.

Dare failed.
Yeah, the length will get to you.

Although it's almost worth it in part because of the sheer batshit insanity of, as JJ1986 pointed out, James inserting quasi-stage directions (rather, trying to make it read like his goofy misconception of what a trial transcript would look like) throughout the thing. At one point, he even has the Grand Jury speak as "Mr. Grand Jury" [!!!] Like, is there a reason James thought it was necessary to have the judge adjourn the court for a couple hours so that his stupid 10-minute long 'closing argument' could be read on the next day?

Oh, and you gotta love how the PROSECUTOR (who is, get this, not prosecuting Paterno but rather prosecuting Penn State for tarring Paterno's reputation -- again, it's the morally gobsmacking framing device that rankles above all) gets to make a closing argument...but the so-called defense must remain mute.
   395. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:47 PM (#4183490)
I got all the way through it the day it was posted and didn't even mind the gimmick. At the time I simply regarded it as a presentation the pro-Paterno case; it was still possible, for me at least, to conceive of the existence of a pro-Paterno case, in December. I mean, it's Bill James; few writers of any sort are better at using writing to exert blunt force. I've always enjoyed his style, I suspect for many of the same reasons BBC hates it. Different strokes and such. Even when it goes spectacularly FUBAR as in this article.
   396. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:48 PM (#4183491)
Holy mother of god. Did everyone else know about this 12/11/11 article James wrote? It's...insane. Not the hyperbolic sense, but rather in the "I question the mental balance of anyone who wrote this article."
I only learned about it the other day, through a link from the Lawyers Guns & Money blog. It boggles the mind. As an attorney, James makes a pretty good night watchman at a pork and beans factory.

And I have to agree with what other people above have written: it makes it impossible to take any non-quantitative claim that Bill James has ever made seriously. He previously beclowned himself with his analysis of the Dowd Report, but at the time that seemed like a one-time thing. But now?
   397. Graham Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:50 PM (#4183493)
I was hoping that the decline in James's material after the New Historical Abstract was due to restrictions placed on him by the Red Sox. It turns out that I was horribly wrong. Is Manny Ramirez's career shape the most similar to James's career as a writer? Manny crushes the ball for more than a decade. He begins getting on people's nerves with his wacky behavior before failing multiple drug tests and under-performing in AAA. James produces two decades' worth of excellent baseball material. He tails off due to an apparent lack of interest in the game before making a fool of himself in a field where he has no expertise.
   398. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:51 PM (#4183494)
As an attorney, James makes a pretty good night watchman at a porn and beans factory.


Well played, sir. Especially if the 'n' where I expected a 'k' was intentional.
   399. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:51 PM (#4183496)
If at any point the University decided that he was no longer the best man to lead their football program, they were entitled to do so without complaint. They were, however, not entitled to gratuitously damage his reputation in the process of so doing.


They did, but your weakest man on campus faced them down, Bill.
   400. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 11:55 PM (#4183499)
Well played, sir. Especially if the 'n' where I expected a 'k' was intentional.
Ugh. Fixed the typo.
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