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Tuesday, August 07, 2012

Calcaterra: Jason Bay is no longer the Mets everyday left fielder

It’s been suspected that things are going this way, so why don’t I just go eat some hay, make things out of clay, lay by the Bay? I just may!

It’s been suspected that things are going this way, but Jason Bay is now officially a $16 million per year platoon player:

Collins said he’s going to have a talk with Bay about his use going forward, meaning he is now a matchup player. No longer the everyday LF.

— David Lennon (@DPLennon) August 7, 2012

The District Attorney Posted: August 07, 2012 at 07:18 PM | 58 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: craig calcaterra, jason bay, mets

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   1. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: August 07, 2012 at 10:24 PM (#4202851)
Bay has got a good attitude and works hard but there's really no reason why he is still on the team. He doesn't do anything well at this point.
   2. Bruce Markusen Posted: August 07, 2012 at 10:32 PM (#4202857)
A "matchup" player? I've heard of a matchup reliever, but not a matchup outfielder.

It is rather amazing how quickly Bay lost it. He was 31 when this severe decline began. The ballpark may have been a factor, but that doesn't explain it all.
   3. Benji Posted: August 07, 2012 at 10:39 PM (#4202861)
What is the point of keeping him around? You have to pay him, yes, but playing him gives you less of a chance to win, which then lowers attendance and interest. Which costs you more than releasing him and paying his replacement minimum salary. There's no upside to it.
   4. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: August 07, 2012 at 10:44 PM (#4202865)
jason bay vs. kevin mcreynolds

go.....
   5. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: August 07, 2012 at 10:45 PM (#4202866)
It is rather amazing how quickly Bay lost it. He was 31 when this severe decline began. The ballpark may have been a factor, but that doesn't explain it all.

He was out for a while with a concussion in 2010. It seemed mild at the time...
   6. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: August 07, 2012 at 10:58 PM (#4202872)
jason bay vs. kevin mcreynolds

go.....


McReynolds is 52 (a month & 2 days younger than me, I see ... geez), & while he would almost certainly be an improvement, I'm not sure it'd be worth the trouble of bringing him back.

Depends on who the Mets have in the minors, I guess.
   7. The District Attorney Posted: August 07, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4202874)
So can we call Duda back up now and put him in LF?
   8. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: August 07, 2012 at 11:02 PM (#4202875)
jason bay vs. kevin mcreynolds

go.....


Am I wrong in remembering McReynolds as a pretty good fielder? I think he was, and Bay wasn't/isn't, so I'd give McReynolds the advantage. Their offensive numbers are pretty similar when you factor in the eras in which they played, so I think fielding makes the difference. Again, I might not be remembering McReynolds' fielding correctly.
   9. jack the seal clubber (on the sidelines of life) Posted: August 07, 2012 at 11:13 PM (#4202880)
Mc Reynolds gained a lot of weight and went from being a good fielder to a statue.
   10. JE (Jason) Posted: August 07, 2012 at 11:23 PM (#4202891)
C'mon, guys, it's not even close.

McReynolds, wOBA: .348 , .375, .341, .357, .325, .325 ('04)
Bay, wOBA: .336, .315, .244

Also, McReynolds was far more durable, putting in 151, 147, 148, 147, and 143 games per season in his first stint with the Amazins.
   11. The TVerik of Lordly Might Posted: August 07, 2012 at 11:25 PM (#4202892)
What is the point of keeping him around? You have to pay him, yes, but playing him gives you less of a chance to win, which then lowers attendance and interest. Which costs you more than releasing him and paying his replacement minimum salary. There's no upside to it.


Paying him to hit homers for another team (I don't think he's done) would definitely feel like a cost.

If they released Bay tomorrow, he'd be in some other uniform next week.
   12. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: August 07, 2012 at 11:37 PM (#4202899)
Got to give Theo a little credit - getting Bay in exchange for the sure-to-be-dealt Manny Ramirez was way more than I ever thought the Red Sox could get for the malcontented Manny. Then, he left Boston just in time, before he started sucking.

Also, pretty cool that a no-name Jason Bay was traded for a no-name Brian Giles, and both ended up being pretty friggin' good after the trade.

Finally, it may be karma that the Mets got Bay for Lou Collier from the Expos, and then signed him for a lot of money on the way back down...
   13. Mark S. is bored Posted: August 08, 2012 at 12:46 AM (#4202933)
If they released Bay tomorrow, he'd be in some other uniform next week


2010 .259/.347/.402 age 31 - 95 games
2011 .245/.329/.374 age 32 - 123 games
2012 .154/.248..285 age 33 - 40 (out of 109) games

Would you sign this player?

And as for his splits in 2012
RHP .159/.222/.293
LHP .146/.288/.271

and 2011
RHP - .228/.297/.332
LHP - .300/.418/.500

Possibly hope that he can regain his left-mashing ways. But he's not making it easy for teams to want him.
   14. Natty Fan Posted: August 08, 2012 at 12:49 AM (#4202935)
#12 - Brian Giles was an established star in Pittsburgh when he was traded for Bay (and Oliver Perez) in 2003. In 5 years with the Pirates, he hit .308/.426/.551 (158+) with 165 HRs and garnered MVP votes each year. I remember Pirates fans being very upset with the trade at the time. If he was a "no-name" to baseball fans outside of Pittsburgh, that's a shame.

Pirates fans probably felt a little better when Bay won NL ROY the following year, but Bay never matched Giles' production, and even accounting for PETCO, Giles never had a season in San Diego as good as any of his first four years in Pittsburgh.
   15. Swedish Chef Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:01 AM (#4202957)
Would you sign this player?

For the minimum, yes. Andruw Jones have turned out to be an useful role player after a similar collapse.
   16. Martin Hemner Posted: August 08, 2012 at 05:34 AM (#4202961)
jason bay vs. kevin mcreynolds

Assuming you mean total career (since there is no comparison over their Mets' careers), I would probably take Bay by a small margin.

How about Jason Bay vs. Ben Ogilvie?
   17. Hack Wilson Posted: August 08, 2012 at 07:50 AM (#4202972)
The Mets traded Bay once before. Is Steve Reed available again?
   18. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: August 08, 2012 at 08:14 AM (#4202976)
Jason Bay = George Foster, though Foster came back from his collapse to be cromulent for a couple of years and his collapse wasn't as bad as Bay's is currently. They seem to have caused an equal amount of loathing in the Mets hive-mind.

edit: Looking at BB-Ref, I don't recall Foster at all as being on the 86 Mets but he played a fair chunk of games for that team. The memory plays tricks!
   19. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: August 08, 2012 at 08:24 AM (#4202977)
Of course he was on the '86 team! He was the mastermind behind "Get Metsmerized"!
   20. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: August 08, 2012 at 08:35 AM (#4202982)
Get Metsmerized B!tches

When all those teams were making braggart videos in the 80's, was there a team that made one and didn't win a championship? The 85 Bears won it all, the 89 49ers won it all and the 86 Mets won it all. Even Liverpool won the Premier league the year they released their awesomely crappy music video.
   21. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: August 08, 2012 at 08:36 AM (#4202983)
Yeah, Foster was released about this time of year 1986.

McReynolds? On what planet is his Mets career an appropriate comparison for Jason Bay? McReynolds put up 14.3 bWAR as a Met, including a 142 OPS+ as a member of the 100 win 1988 team. The Mets paid him about $9 million over 6 seasons. Bay? BAY?????!!!!!! BAAAAAAAY??????????!!!!!!????????

Most of the knock on K-Mac was his appearing not to give a sh*t out there, but he was usually productive enough (even if not usually a star).
   22. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: August 08, 2012 at 08:47 AM (#4202989)
metsies

i was just tossing it out there since mcreynolds was a guy who stopped hitting at roughly the same time as bay in terms of age

i was always a big mcreynolds fan.
   23. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 08, 2012 at 08:47 AM (#4202991)
It is rather amazing how quickly Bay lost it. He was 31 when this severe decline began. The ballpark may have been a factor, but that doesn't explain it all.


The main reason the Pirates traded him, rather than extending him, is that his body was falling apart. Two bad knees and a bad shoulder. That's the same reason his 2007 was so crappy (he tried to play hurt), and the same reason he failed his physical when the Red Sox tried to extend him.
   24. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: August 08, 2012 at 09:21 AM (#4203013)
He hasn't been healthy with the Mets, but the main reason Bay has lost playing time is that he keeps hitting his head. Or, in the case of the 2010 injury, not hitting his head but managing to sustain a concussion anyway. LOLMets.
   25. zonk Posted: August 08, 2012 at 09:49 AM (#4203035)
metsies

i was just tossing it out there since mcreynolds was a guy who stopped hitting at roughly the same time as bay in terms of age

i was always a big mcreynolds fan.


Sir, I'm going to have to ask you to please not pound on the glass of the Mets enclosure... SIR - please take off that Kazmir jersey, I'm going to have to ask you to leave.
   26. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: August 08, 2012 at 09:52 AM (#4203042)
I didn't realize Kevin McReynolds had ANY fans.
   27. Tom Nawrocki Posted: August 08, 2012 at 10:11 AM (#4203055)
When all those teams were making braggart videos in the 80's, was there a team that made one and didn't win a championship? The 85 Bears won it all, the 89 49ers won it all and the 86 Mets won it all.


I can remember the Browns making one with Bernie Kosar.
   28. Hack Wilson Posted: August 08, 2012 at 10:25 AM (#4203067)
I can remember the Browns making one with Bernie Kosar.

They should have done one with Rube Waddell. Well a Vaudeville skit anyway.
   29. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: August 08, 2012 at 10:26 AM (#4203069)
I can remember the Browns making one with Bernie Kosar.

It ends with Earnest Byner fumbling the mic.
   30. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: August 08, 2012 at 10:36 AM (#4203086)
I can remember the Browns making one with Bernie Kosar.

If such a video exists it is beyond my google skills.
   31. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 08, 2012 at 11:48 AM (#4203196)

When all those teams were making braggart videos in the 80's, was there a team that made one and didn't win a championship? The 85 Bears won it all, the 89 49ers won it all and the 86 Mets won it all. Even Liverpool won the Premier league the year they released their awesomely crappy music video.

The 1986 Dodgers had a music video (the "Baseball Boogie", according to the Internet) that I only saw for the first time quite recently...it looks like it's no longer on Youtube though.
   32. Swoboda is freedom Posted: August 08, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4203260)
The 1986 Dodgers had a music video (the "Baseball Boogie", according to the Internet) that I only saw for the first time quite recently...it looks like it's no longer on Youtube though.

Right here
   33. attaboy Posted: August 08, 2012 at 02:48 PM (#4203479)
Wow, an awesome video...Someone was 'sporting' a murse back in 1986! Priceless! Hershiser must have been dubbed in, sounds nothing like him. Back to the Mets video, Roger McDowell is the coolest, funniest player in the video and an absurdly awesome double play turned by the best fielding 1B I have ever seen.
   34. Copronymus Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4203626)
The Calgary Flames made Red Hot in 1987 but didn't win a championship until 1989.
   35. PreservedFish Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:29 PM (#4203642)
Who can find that Mets video where Mookie Wilson invents the internet?
   36. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: August 08, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4203717)
Would you sign this player?


if he was a terrific defensive SS
sure

a bad LF

no.

If Bay gets released his career could be over at this point.
   37. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: August 08, 2012 at 05:59 PM (#4203722)
As long as we have a Mets thread going on:

.301/.362/.361 in 670 PAs 2011-2012

There is a Met fan primate here who may possibly want to consider that they may have been wrong about Ruben Tejada.
   38. PreservedFish Posted: August 08, 2012 at 06:11 PM (#4203733)
I'm not sure who #31 refers to, but I'll admit that I was a Ruben Tejada doubter. Really impressed by him this year, on both sides of the ball. The walks are way down but he still seems like he has a great approach at the plate. Lots of line drives up the middle.
   39. Lassus Posted: August 08, 2012 at 06:23 PM (#4203743)
There is a Met fan primate here who may possibly want to consider that they may have been wrong about Ruben Tejada.

Only one?

Actually, that .301 has me nervous, it's really been falling lately. I hope it's just a slump and not a trend.
   40. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: August 08, 2012 at 06:34 PM (#4203752)
Actually, that .301 has me nervous, it's really been falling lately. I hope it's just a slump and not a trend.

Even if his true talent level is something like .280, a .345/340 slash line with solid D makes for a perfectly cromulent player, which is more than I (and pretty much everyone else except you, Lassus) thought he was capable of. A year ago, that's what I thought his ceiling was.

Am I the only one who still thinks Bay could be good as the short end of a platoon? 60 horrible PAs isn't enough for to completely give up hope.
   41. Benji Posted: August 08, 2012 at 06:41 PM (#4203757)
1. On the Met blogs, there are some posts that fear releasing Bay would lead to a renaissance in a new uniform. Do they mean like Luis Castillo's? Or George Foster's? He's finished.

2. I never liked Kevin McReynolds. I hated his "I'd just as soon be frog giggin' " apathetic play. But in '87 and '88 he played left field better than any Met before or since. Then he got fat.
   42. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: August 08, 2012 at 06:47 PM (#4203761)
but I'll admit that I was a Ruben Tejada doubter.
not you, there is someone here who was absolutely insistent for a very long time that Tejada was a non-prospect whose absolute upside was back-up 2b/ss.

Actually, that .301 has me nervous,

that .301 is his last 670 PAs, he's at .321 this year.

The one I'm thinking of had what many derided as an unduly optimistic take on Dan Murphy's hitting abilities... but of course has turned out more right than wrong on that score....

Actually I'm being a bit unfair on Sam, he did concede after last year that Tejada could be a league average starting SS... but Salfino, now that's another story
   43. The District Attorney Posted: August 08, 2012 at 07:46 PM (#4203814)
I suspect that more Met fans felt McReynolds should be the 1988 MVP than Darryl Strawberry (or Kirk Gibson), although of course this was primarily due to the insane expectations for Straw and to underrating OBP. Still, McReynolds was awfully good that year. He had one bad season for the Mets, but really, it's Royals fans who should hate him. Foster would be the better pick to needle the Met fan. (Or Bobby Bonilla, but the educated fan will know that Bonilla did not play all that terribly for the Mets. Or Roberto Alomar. Or Mo Vaughn. I could actually continue, but I won't.)

I didn't think Tejada would flop, but I thought he would just be cromulent, and I didn't think he should be a factor when deciding what to do about Reyes or other potential shortstops. It's great that he's playing so well. Ike, on the other hand, is scaring me. He has hit for about a three-week period all year.
   44. PreservedFish Posted: August 08, 2012 at 07:51 PM (#4203820)
I suspect that more Met fans felt McReynolds should be the 1988 MVP than Darryl Strawberry (or Kirk Gibson),


Led the league in GWRBI, if my memory of the Panini sticker album leaderboards can be trusted.
   45. BWV 1129 Posted: August 08, 2012 at 07:59 PM (#4203825)
Didn't McReynolds have some weird record for most SB in a season without a CS, or something like that?
   46. The District Attorney Posted: August 08, 2012 at 08:34 PM (#4203857)
Didn't McReynolds have some weird record for most SB in a season without a CS, or something like that?
Yes (with 21), and at least in NY, it was very well-publicized.

(The known record is now 23 by Chase Utley, 2009. Of course, we don't have CS for all seasons.)
   47. CrosbyBird Posted: August 09, 2012 at 09:10 AM (#4204107)
not you, there is someone here who was absolutely insistent for a very long time that Tejada was a non-prospect whose absolute upside was back-up 2b/ss.

I thought Tejada's upside was "average offensive SS with good defense, might make a couple of All-Star games." I'm not sure if I'm ready to step off of that based on a half-season. Where Tejada really surprised me was in 2011, because I thought he'd be completely overmatched and he ended up putting up a very respectable performance.
   48. Lassus Posted: August 09, 2012 at 09:22 AM (#4204118)
that .301 is his last 670 PAs, he's at .321 this year.

Yes, I saw that later, realized my error, thanks. Just about the only bright spot in last night's game was Tejada's 1-2 with 2 walks.

For anyone who's interested, here was the Tejada thread.
   49. zack Posted: August 09, 2012 at 10:27 AM (#4204188)
But in '87 and '88 he played left field better than any Met before or since. Then he got fat.

That's an exceptionally low bar to clear, though, given the state of the Mets' corner outfield, and outfield in general other than Carlos Beltran's time there.

For the "Common starters" page on bb-ref, Mets LF or RF who managed to hold a job for more than one season, post-McReynolds:

Bernard Gilkey (1996!)
Benny Agbyani
Bobby Bo
Alex Ochoa
Cliff Floyd
Jeff Francouer
Zom Bay

Now that misses a lot of guys who were around for that time, like Rickey and Timo and Moises Alou, but that's kind of the point. In 42 position seasons, they've barely twice managed to find a guy to hold down what should be the easiest positions to field. Anyway, when your best competition is Bernard Gilkey and Scratch Floyd, you're probably gonna come out ok.

Also I was convinced that Jon Nunnally played more than half a season in NY. And I have no idea why he never sniffed the show again after that. Just constant injuries? (Another Mets OF theme).
   50. zack Posted: August 09, 2012 at 10:30 AM (#4204194)
Also also Cliff Floyd's twitter account is apparently sleepy30. And he's twit-friends with Preston Wilson. And he's President of the Cliff Floyd Foundation.

I love Cliff Floyd.
   51. The District Attorney Posted: August 09, 2012 at 10:37 AM (#4204208)
I don't know if that list is unusually awful. (I can certainly think of at least one LF list I bet is worse: Seattle.) You can't expect to have a superstar at every position every 25 years. Bonilla as alluded to earlier actually hit well for the Mets; Floyd had a very nice career; and although Agbayani was never quite a regular, he was always pretty good.

Anyway, can we ask sleepy30 whether he plans to cash in on Anna Benson's promise?
   52. billyshears Posted: August 09, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4204283)
I suspect that more Met fans felt McReynolds should be the 1988 MVP than Darryl Strawberry (or Kirk Gibson)


I remember thinking in 1988 that the Kevin McReynolds for MVP campaign had to be some sort of conspiracy to split the Mets vote to prevent Darryl Strawberry from winning the MVP. OK, I didn't actually think that when I was 12, but I thought it was preposterous just the same.
   53. JJ1986 Posted: August 09, 2012 at 11:20 AM (#4204286)
I don't know if that list is unusually awful. (I can certainly think of at least one LF list I bet is worse: Seattle.) You can't expect to have a superstar at every position every 25 years. Bonilla as alluded to earlier actually hit well for the Mets; Floyd had a very nice career; and although Agbayani was never quite a regular, he was always pretty good.


It looks worse because it's usually been LF and RF at the same time. The Mariners, for example, had two excellent RFers during the time they've had horrible players in left.
   54. zack Posted: August 09, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4204292)
I'm not talking superstars, I'm talking a standard of something like, "fans don't continuely wish for an upgrade, and plays 130+ games". Like I expected Ryan Church to meet that standard, and he didn't make it half a season. Sleepy30 certainly cleared it rate wise, but he was made of glass even as a young player.

SEA's LF might be worse, but they were also playing alongside Griffey, Buhner, Cameron and Ichiro for a big chunk of the last 20 years, whereas the Mets list is LF and RF combined. Maybe I'm asking for too much in stability, I'd be interested to see say combined WAR at the position over that period, regardless of individual player.
   55. Conor Posted: August 09, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4204302)
The only thing that worries me about Tejada a little is his 385 BABIP, which would be 6th in the majors if he qualified. But his LD% is crazy high; it would be the highest in the majors if he had enough PA to qualify. His walk rate is the lowest it's been in his short ML career, and his K rate is the highest. But he's 22 years old and he's been a good major leaguer, so that says a lot about him.

He's probably miscast as a top of the order hitter, but he looks like he's going to be a good player for a while.
   56. The District Attorney Posted: August 09, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4204312)
Whoops, didn't realize that list was both LF and RF (since I was ignoring Ochoa and Frenchy, since they stunk ;) Although I suppose I should have realized Bonilla wasn't a LF. Anyway.) Yeah, the team is starting to develop a habit of trying to get all its offense out of the infield. That was definitely the case with the late '90s team¹, and even absent the unusual situation of having one of the best hitters in the league at catcher, it may be even more so now. This outfield is pathetic.

¹ Although the 1999 team that had Rickey and Roger Cedeno setting the table is one of my favorite things ever.
   57. formerly dp Posted: August 09, 2012 at 12:07 PM (#4204329)
He's probably miscast as a top of the order hitter, but he looks like he's going to be a good player for a while.


I'm not sure about being miscast at the top of the order-- he handles the bat well and sees a lot of pitches. At the start of the season, I thought he was a perfect fit for the #2 hole, but after watching him lead off, I see the value of hitting him there. The 2012 Tejada IMO is more suited to hit #2 or #1 than anywhere else in the order.
   58. Conor Posted: August 09, 2012 at 12:26 PM (#4204344)
I'm not sure about being miscast at the top of the order-- he handles the bat well and sees a lot of pitches. At the start of the season, I thought he was a perfect fit for the #2 hole, but after watching him lead off, I see the value of hitting him there. The 2012 Tejada IMO is more suited to hit #2 or #1 than anywhere else in the order.


Maybe I'm short-changing him. I'm assuming he can't carry a 385 BABIP so that means the OBP is going to come down.

I'd agree that if he consistently has a line like this then he should be at the top of the order; you can't sneeze at a 370 OBP, especially in 2012. And he has a career 350 OBP, so like I said, I could be short changing him. His ZIPS ROS projection is 341/359, which seems closer to what I'm thinking, and might be better suited down in the order. (At least in general, I'm not sure that would be the case for the Mets)

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