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Saturday, April 21, 2018

Callaway says Harvey might not make his next start after performance in 12-4 loss to Braves

Four games is a small sample size, but the early signs are not positive for Harvey as he attempts to rebound in the final year of his contract. The results are all too familiar to the previous two seasons when he struggled while dealing with injuries.

Harvey even sounded like he did the past two years by glossing over how poorly he pitched and instead focusing on what he believed to be a bright spot.

The righty put the Mets (13-5) in a 3-0 hole in the first by allowing a two-run homer to Kurt Suzuki, and Atlanta doubled the lead two innings later. Nick Markakis’ RBI single pushed the lead to 4-0, and Preston Tucker’s two-run double put Atlanta up by six runs.

Harvey ended his night by retiring 11 of the last 12 batters he faced, and he viewed his success in the fourth through sixth innings as a “big breakthrough.”

“I dug myself in a hole the last four starts,” Harvey said. “I really feel those last three innings were a big step out of that hole.”

Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: April 21, 2018 at 02:32 PM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: doomed, mets

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   1. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: April 21, 2018 at 02:39 PM (#5657536)
Even if you don't think Vargas is very good, Lugo or Gsellman are better options. The question should not be whether Harvey is replaced in the rotation, rather it should be by whom.
   2. PreservedFish Posted: April 21, 2018 at 02:43 PM (#5657540)
What a shame. Pitcher establishes clear HOF ability and loses it in just a year or two. How many like him?
   3. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: April 21, 2018 at 04:39 PM (#5657631)
It's official, he's out of the rotation. Moving to the bullpen.
   4. Ray (CTL) Posted: April 21, 2018 at 08:39 PM (#5657737)
Problem seems to be that his H/9 have gone through the roof over the past 200 innings. And his HR/9 have followed over the past 100 innings. He's actually arrested the decline in his K/BB ratio this year -- only 20 IP so far but those rates stabilize very quickly.

Usually the unsustainable H/9 while hanging on to a good K/9 happens to old power pitchers at the end of the line (e.g., Pedro; Oswalt). It would be odd to happen to Harvey at age 29 but then he's had a problematic injury history.

I'd keep him in the rotation given the good BB and K rates and let him try to work it out... but then I'm the last one to lose faith in a power pitchers who was once a star.
   5. Adam Starblind Posted: April 21, 2018 at 09:22 PM (#5657766)
Four games is a small sample size


That is not the sample size.
   6. bfan Posted: April 22, 2018 at 10:46 AM (#5657936)
well, Harvey is using a 3 inning sample size, so 4 games seems enormous.
   7. PreservedFish Posted: April 22, 2018 at 11:48 AM (#5657953)
Usually the unsustainable H/9 while hanging on to a good K/9 happens to old power pitchers at the end of the line (e.g., Pedro; Oswalt).


I wonder how much of this is bad luck. If you're an old power pitcher at the end of the line, a bad luck BABIP could very well end your career. I'd be interested in the theory that explains how they can miss just as many bats as ever, but at the same time allow harder contact.

(As usual I think that BABIP is a strange stat to look at here ... the on-contact Avg/Slg is much more instructive)

With Harvey, he's got a tiny walk rate but is getting totally creamed on-contact, which suggests that he's just throwing meatballs. A K rate in the low 7s is nothing remarkable these days, the league average is just a hair under 9! I wouldn't mind it if he got a bigger chance to strut his stuff, but on the other hand, if he's getting outpitched, he's getting outpitched.
   8. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: April 22, 2018 at 12:44 PM (#5657975)
I'd keep him in the rotation given the good BB and K rates and let him try to work it out... but then I'm the last one to lose faith in a power pitchers who was once a star.

As noted, the K rate is actually pretty weak. And this version of Harvey bares no resemblance to the one that used to be a star. If he still sat at 96 with movement, I'd have a lot more patience.

Right now, Harvey's got below average stuff and 100+ innings of sub-replacement level performance, while the Mets have 5 healthy options who all project better. That's all that should matter here.
   9. Ray (CTL) Posted: April 22, 2018 at 04:40 PM (#5658101)
As noted, the K rate is actually pretty weak.


Yes, but I do think we need to compare his K rate to that of starters; relievers will naturally have higher K rates from only being asked to face a handful of batters. (At least, that seems to be what I've observed anecdotally, but I confess I haven't looked at the breakdowns for starters v. relievers.)

And this version of Harvey bares no resemblance to the one that used to be a star. If he still sat at 96 with movement, I'd have a lot more patience.

Right now, Harvey's got below average stuff and 100+ innings of sub-replacement level performance, while the Mets have 5 healthy options who all project better. That's all that should matter here.


That's fair enough. I don't question the decision to pull him from the rotation if you have better options. He's been bad for a while now.

(I do wonder why you'd start the season with him in the rotation but not let him make it through April. Though I don't follow the Mets' organization closely enough -- service time, injuries, etc. -- to be able to judge this decision.
   10. Ray (CTL) Posted: April 22, 2018 at 04:42 PM (#5658103)
I wonder how much of this is bad luck. If you're an old power pitcher at the end of the line, a bad luck BABIP could very well end your career. I'd be interested in the theory that explains how they can miss just as many bats as ever, but at the same time allow harder contact.


Just basically throwing rather than pitching, I think. Knowing you don't have the ability to command your different pitch types into the different locations anymore and your "stuff" isn't as good as it once was but you still have enough velocity to miss bats. So you just aim for the strike zone and you end up with a good K/BB rate but you're getting clobbered.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: April 22, 2018 at 05:16 PM (#5658127)
C'mon it's right there at b-r.

2017 NL
SP: 8.0 K/9 or 20.7%
RP: 9.0 K/9 or 23.3%

Since RPs rarely get to face pitchers, arguably the gap is a bit bigger. And so far K-rates are up quite a bit this year so Harvey probably looks even a bit worse.

   12. Ray (CTL) Posted: April 22, 2018 at 06:19 PM (#5658162)
I believe we're on pace for more Ks than hits for the first time ever.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: April 23, 2018 at 01:37 AM (#5658299)
I believe we're on pace for more Ks than hits for the first time ever.

Egads! And it's not particularly close.

Last year was bad with only about 5% more Hs than Ks. This year so far, it's 7% fewer Hs than Ks. Maybe warmer weather will catch things up but that's a pretty big deficit already.

EDIT: Oh yeah, that can be kinda checked. For Mar/Apr last year, Hs were about 2% ahead of Ks. So a big shift down but summer should help us catch up a bit.
   14. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: April 23, 2018 at 11:09 AM (#5658425)
Watching Matt Harvey makes me sad these days...
   15. SoSH U at work Posted: April 23, 2018 at 11:27 AM (#5658445)
Egads! And it's not particularly close.

Last year was bad with only about 5% more Hs than Ks. This year so far, it's 7% fewer Hs than Ks. Maybe warmer weather will catch things up but that's a pretty big deficit already.


But who would even notice?
   16. bunyon Posted: April 23, 2018 at 12:28 PM (#5658496)
I guess he wouldn't go for it in the last year of his contract but it sounds to me like he has to become a different pitcher. Any thought of sending him down to work on a different approach/other pitches?
   17. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 23, 2018 at 04:47 PM (#5658662)
If he still sat at 96 with movement, I'd have a lot more patience.


IIRC they've moved to a new method of recording pitch speed (out of the hand rather than while in transit) which has increased reported speeds. Even with that, Harvey's average fastball is down from 96.6 MPH in 2015 to 92.7 MPH this year.

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