Camden Depot: Crawdaddy: The Wieters Shift

Sharper than the Crawdoodah Gazette…Crawdaddy checks out Matt Wieters.

Results

If Wieters can average 120 games as a catcher.

At 120 games, differences are just not very significant. Within the study range, there was no combination of OBP and SLG that would result in Wieters shift being worth more than a gain of 8 runs (0.8 wins). The break even line is about the type of player Russell Martin was last year. Victor Martinez is slightly above the line and Jorge Posada was worth about 0.5 wins above average if he was switched. As you can tell, you really have to rake to be worth the move at this level and a move does not result in as many wins as you may think.

If Wieters can average 110 games as a catcher.

Not much has changed with respect to group players from last year. Martin and Martinez are above the line more noticeably now, but Varitek is still below. Posada is now worth 0.9 wins above average. This is starting to be significant. I would probably think hard about moving a player if I could improve by a win. Of course, this scenario suggests that I can only find replacement level 1B and I can procure a league average catcher. It still does not seem viable. Although I does seem to suggest that the Yankees might be better off with Posada at first base and making a play for Varitek, Zaun, or Barajas.